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I don't think I'm giving away any confidences here -- from private correspondence with Penn, I know that he is that he is convinced that Oswald definitely COULD have made those shots alone.
(I'm the retired Master Sergeant that gave him my "atheist" dog tags)
He did not specifically say that he believed Oswald acted alone, though I got that impression, rightly or wrongly. From a logical standpoint, unless there is some plausible proof of other shooters (or conspirators), one MUST assume that Oswald acted alone.
Penn and I did not agree completely on the plausibility of Oswald's shooting, though we did not go into enough length and detail. He and I have both tried to recreate those shots. He succeeded, but I did not. The two Mannlicher-Carcanos that I (and a couple of Army buddies) tried, in the late 60s, were real pieces of shit, right off the surplus dealer's shelf, and, not being gunsmiths, we made no effort to smooth up the slow, sticky action of these rifles. This, to me, is an absolute KEY point to the discussion, and I have no idea whether Oswald (or some friend, or a local gunsmith) might have taken a bit of crocus cloth and smoothed up the bolt action ... or whether or not Oswald's rifle action might have just been in a lot nicer shape than most. It's certainly possible.
Settling the issue would really require taking Oswald's Mannlicher out of storage and having it tested. The likelihood of that, I suspect, is near zero, and my guess is that it was never fired after Nov 22nd except perhaps for ballistics match by the Dallas PD or the FBI. Knowing whether his gun was a piece of crap like mine, or whether it actually worked smoothly and quickly, would certainly skew my opinion one way or the other.
My memory may be off here, but I seem to recall that Penn used iron sights rather than the cheap telescopic sight that Oswald (and I) had used, and that one of my objections to Penn's test was that iron sights are quicker to get a sight picture with, and shoot, compared to telescopic sights. Again, I may be wrong in my recollection of his comments -- my email Inbox disappeared a while back (thank you, Bill Gates), so aging memory is all I have to work with. It was about at this point in the discussion that I let the matter drop, trying to reevaluate our little test of 40 years ago, wondering just how much smoother the action needed to be to achieve the shots in the period of time allowed.
Oswald was a mediocre shooter at best, based on his USMC training record. It took him several times to qualify, and I think he just achieved the lower level of marksmanship badge. Again, I'm operating from memory here, but I believe he only scored the Army equivalent of Marksman (lowest level ... next being Sharpshooter, then Expert). I fired Expert in both the M-14 and the M-1 Carbine, which puts me well above Oswald's skill. However, he could have gotten a lot better later on, at USMC ranges where he was stationed or in civilian gun ranges, for which it would be difficult or impossible to locate any records, if they even existed. Anyone can improve, with practice. It's also possible that he shot targets recreationally while living in the USSR. If he did, they damn sure wouldn't tell us, under the circumstances.
Could Oswald have done the shots? Yes, I agree with Penn. However, much of that depends on the condition of his rifle, something at which we can only guess.
Going back to my 40-year old tests, I believe I could have made those shots, though it would require two things:
(a) significantly smoother bolt action than I had.
(b) a bit of luck, considering his squishy skills.
The first is probably un-knowable, but possible. The second I'm willing to concede. Being long out of practice & with 63-yr-old eyes, I'm at best a mediocre shot now, but I have made more than one shot that amazed even me, including a quick-draw shot with a .357 that drilled a fox thru the eye at 25 feet. I pretended, for my wife's sake, that it was just my normal shooting skills. Pure bullshit.
There has been at least one recent re-creation of Oswald's shots, I think on the History Channel, though I believe they used a fairly skilled shooter, and no mention was made of whether the Mannlicher-Carcano had been fiddled with at all. They seemed to prove that the shots were possible, but to me it's pretty shoddy not to at least take into account the likelihood of Oswald's rifle being in similar condition to the test rifle, considering how much that affects the effective rate of fire.
In fairness to the Mannlichers -- they are usually regarded as pieces of crap, since most of the surplus ones that were flogged off in the 60s were in rough shape; for $19.95, you can't expect much. However, properly "tuned up" and sighted in, they are actually very good rifles, considering their age and all the wars most of them have been through.