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Peacemaking conundrums in the Horn of Africa
Ploughshares Briefing 03/1
By Leenco Lata
January 2003
Three peacemaking activities are simultaneously underway in the strife-ridden Horn of Africa region:
- mediation to end Sudan’s decades-long internal conflict,
- a new round of talks on how to reconstitute state and society in Somalia, and
- border negotiations to settle the territorial dispute that ostensibly led to the 1998-2000 Ethiopia/Eritrea war.
So much peacemaking activity in a region afflicted by inter-state conflict, intra-state strife, and famine is truly encouraging. However, unless the following cautions are exercised, success may be minimal or nonexistent.
Despite the welcome coincidence of peacemaking activities, a more concertedly simultaneous process would be preferable. According to Lionel Cliffe (1998, p. 1), interaction between the region’s states not only constitutes “complicating contextual factors that intensify internal conflicts, but that such conflicts are intermeshed in such a way that ‘solutions’ to any one country’s problems in isolation are extremely difficult.” Cliffe (p. 2) determines, “The task of peace-making is thus complicated in two ways: it has to be a two-tier process, and there has to be a simultaneity in settling two or more disputes.” Based on the observation that the Horn of Africa “has been the site of endemic inter- and intra-state conflict for decades,” Terrence Lyons (1996, p. 85) concurs with Cliffe that “the many conflicts are linked in a regional ‘security complex’ – a group of states whose primary security concerns link together sufficiently closely that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another.” Inter-state and intra-state conflicts in the Horn of Africa hence display the tendency to connect seamlessly and to resonate with each other to an extent rarely seen elsewhere. This resonance must be kept in mind in any attempt to resolve conflict in the region.
As past experiences have demonstrated, peace accords among one set of actors can actually contribute to the spread and intensification of conflicts. The most dramatic case followed the conclusion of a “peace” accord between Ethiopia’s Mengistu Hailemariam and Somalia’s Siad Barre in April 1988. Conflict intensified in both countries. In Somalia, the Somali National Movement (SNM) staged a daring raid into Northern Somalia to try to escape the threat resulting from the rulers’ agreement to end support for each other’s armed opposition. This incident brought Somalia one stage closer to the chaos that the Somali people have been enduring for the last decade by triggering a chain of developments.
The Siad regime responded to SNM raids by launching a scorched-earth military operation in Northern Somalia, further stiffening the determination of the Northerners to break away from the rest of Somalia. Armed opposition against his regime escalated dramatically as more clan-based groups decided to emulate the SNM’s daring actions. Meanwhile, Siad’s power base shrank as clan groups abandoned him. By concluding the agreement with Mengistu, Siad effectively dashed the Ogadenis’ expectation of joining Somalia, so they also abandoned his regime. Finally, the Somali state and society fragmented.
Mengistu’s hopes that the accord with Siad would help him retain power in Ethiopia and prevent Eritrea’s separation from Ethiopia were also unfulfilled. The overthrow of his Derg regime in late May 1991 paved the way for Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia, a development without precedent in Africa. Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia fits neither the Czech and Slovak type of “velvet divorce” nor the more common, highly acrimonious breakup of states. Unlike the former, it resulted from a decades-long armed struggle. And unlike the latter, Eritrea’s secession was formally endorsed by the coalition of liberation fronts that then came to power in Ethiopia.
The endorsement of Eritrea’s separation and the plan to reconfigure the rump Ethiopian state were anathema to the predominantly Amharic-speaking Ethiopian elite that not only lost power and preeminence at the time but also felt excluded from the deliberations that led to both crucial decisions. One group described the conference that ratified these decisions as “a stepping stone for the entrenchment of EPRDF-EPLF [Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front – Eritrean People’s Liberation Front] hegemony over the peoples of Ethiopia” (The Horn of Africa Bulletin 1991, p. 5). The EPLF, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which jointly unseated the Derg regime, were accused of an anti-Ethiopia conspiracy. Once again, cooperation among one set of actors was viewed with a high degree of suspicion by others.
Solidarity among these liberation fronts (and by extension among the communities they represented) constituted the Amharic elite’s worst nightmare. However, incessant clashes between the troops of the OLF and the TPLF ultimately resulted in the former’s expulsion from the Ethiopian government in mid-1992. Since then, rumours of contacts between any two of these three actors (the Amharic elite, the OLF, and the TPLF) have continued to evoke nightmares in the third.
While before the outbreak of war in 1998, outsider observors welcomed and lauded the cozy relationship between the Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities and hoped to make it the basis of regional peace and stability, elements in both states saw friendship only between the closely related ruling groups, who were also seen as the sole beneficiaries. In the view of one commentator, the EPLF and TPLF were then the co-rulers of Ethiopia (Ayele 2001).
The widespread hope that Eritrea’s independence would permanently remove one source of inter- and intra-state conflict in the Horn was soon dashed when Eritrea demonstrated that it was simply an additional actor. Within a couple of years of independence, Eritrea had clashed with Sudan, Yemen, and even with the region’s micro-state of Djibouti. Observers were even more astonished and dismayed when, in the summer of 1998, an almost irrational animosity replaced the cozy relations between the rulers of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eritrea’s behaviour has cast a dark shadow over other groups in the region that are pursuing self-determination.
Perhaps the previously isolated Sudanese regime benefited most from the Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions., as both the Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities scrambled to mend fences with it. Conversely, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and its allies within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) suffered a serious setback with the sudden loss of Ethiopia’s and Eritrea’s backing. Meanwhile, those Ethiopians opposed to Eritrea’s separation welcomed the outbreak of hostilities with glee, hopeful of recovering all or part of Eritrea. Groups like the Oromos and the Ogadenis, on the other hand, stepped up their struggles for self-determination by taking advantage of the belligerents’ moves to sponsor each other’s opposition groups. Mutual destabilization by Eritrea and Ethiopia seems to be heating up as the Sudan peace process is moving forward and the settlement of the border dispute is entering its critical phase.
An unusual orchestration of pressure by the US-led international community eventually persuaded Ethiopia and Eritrea to sign the Algiers Peace Agreement of 12 December 2000. One of its provisions was the creation of a Boundary Commission, which handed down its ruling on border delimitation on 13 April 2002. Despite initially agreeing that the Commission’s ruling should be final and binding, Ethiopia has requested changes and clarifications. By the autumn of 2002, Ethiopia and the Boundary Commission were locked in dispute arising mostly from Ethiopia’s settling of peasant farmers on territory that according to the border ruling falls within Eritrea. While actively complicating the process of translating the ruling into actual physical border demarcation, Ethiopia appears to be shopping once again for allies against Eritrea. Here is where the ongoing Sudanese peace process comes into the picture.
Mediating peace in Sudan
Over the past several years, there have been parallel and often competing initiatives to resolve Sudan’s protracted internal strife. The one sponsored by the Intergovernmental Agency on Development (IGAD), the Horn’s nascent regional interstate body, did not make significant progress until the US, primarily motivated by its desire to integrate Sudan into the global anti-terrorism campaign, threw its weight behind the mediation exercise. When the representatives of the Sudan government (GoS) and the SPLA initialled a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) last July, the breakthrough was widely publicized. The critical MOU provisions are: (1) South Sudan’s exemption from the imposition of the Islamic Sharia law; and (2) a referendum to be held after six years to determine if the South will remain part of Sudan. Unless properly handled, both provisions are fraught with difficulties that could lead to more conflicts.
The exemption of South Sudan from the Sharia law should be welcomed. However, the implied international endorsement of Sharia law for Moslem Sudanese is troubling on a number of grounds. First, it has dashed the hopes of those Moslem Sudanese who were eagerly anticipating escape from living under the Sharia law. Second, the promotion of secularism and democracy is threatened by the possibility of a politicized Islamic influence continuing to spread to neighbouring states like Eritrea and Ethiopia, with populations almost evenly divided between Christians and Moslems. Third, the apparent international endorsement of Sharia law for Moslem Sudanese contrasts starkly with the international criticism of political Islam elsewhere.
The final outcome of the MOU’s provision on the referendum is expected to hinge on Sudan’s success or failure in functioning as a single nation-state during the interim period of six years. Failure is expected to justify the division of Sudan into two nation-states. Assessing the nation-state model’s viability and relevance in the African – indeed contemporary global – context is completely overlooked.1 In fact, the precedent set by Eritrea advises us to approach the proliferation of states in the Horn with great care.
More immediate implications of the current Sudan peace process are clearly visible. Consistent with the behaviour of parties to peace talks, both the GoS and SPLA have stepped up military activities, mostly in the South, to extend areas under their respective control. More significant are reports of an upsurge of fighting in the North, particularly on the Sudan-Eritrea border. By restricting self-determination to the South, the MOU suggests to the SPLA’s northern allies that their own quests for independence will be overlooked. The Bejas who inhabit an area straddling the Sudan-Eritrea border and the peoples of the Nuba Mountain and the Ingessana Hills could understandably harbour such a concern. So, military actions in the North could indicate an attempt by these forces to draw attention to their causes.
The Sudan government blames Northern fighting on Eritrea, which has strongly denied any involvement. The souring of relations between Eritrea and Sudan is eagerly exploited by the Ethiopian authorities. Eritrean opposition groups held a widely publicized conference in the Ethiopian capital in early October just at the time that Eritrea and Sudan were starting to trade accusations. Although there are no reports of Eritrea’s openly reciprocating by increasing support to Ethiopian opposition groups, such support is likely.
With this backdrop, in mid-October 2002 the leaders of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen assembled in Sana’a, reportedly to discuss Eritrea and other issues. According to an Ethiopian statement of late October, the three leaders agreed to jointly undermine the present Eritrean government. Of course these developments do not augur well for normalization of relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Hence, one worrying scenario is looking increasingly plausible: Sudan’s internal conflicts and the attempts to settle the Ethiopia-Eritrea war could spark new and more complex conflicts.
Conclusion
A number of conclusions can be drawn from this brief history of peacemaking in the Horn of Africa. Developments within and between the entities populating the Horn have been closely resonating with each other since they started taking their present shape at the beginning of the last century. Inter-state and intra-state conflicts have seamlessly connected and resonated with each other to a degree rarely seen elsewhere. Hence, although focusing on the gravest ones is welcome and unavoidable, such efforts may easily unravel unless they are followed by measures to settle other related conflicts. It is particularly important not to suggest that the attention given to a cause is a function of the volume of violence committed in its pursuit. Finally, the tacit decision to accept Sudan’s division into two nations if a settlement within a single Sudanese nation fails is predicated on the presumption of the failure of Sudan as a nation-state. The possible failure of the nation-state model is thereby overlooked. If that model is faulty, as I believe it is, then we will soon be facing two entities, instead of one, trying to cope with a failed model.
Leenco Lata is a writer and analyst on political and security developments in the Horn of Africa and author of The Ethiopian State at the Crossroads: Decolonization and Democratization or Disintegration? (The Red Sea Press: Lawrenceville, NJ, 2000). He is a former member of the leadership of the Oromo Liberation Front, now living in exile in Canada.
1 For an Africa-wide criticism of the unsuitability of the nation-state model see Okafor, Obiora Chinedu 2000, Re-Defining Legitimate Statehood: International Law and State Fragmentation in Africa, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, The Hague. Numerous scholars have recommended the jettisoning of the nation state model in the Horn. John Markakis (1998) recommends the dissolution of the “wedlock of nation and state” in Resource Conflict in the Horn of Africa, SAGE Publications, London, pp. 187-188. “The steel grid of the nation-state and its excessively Unitarian ideology must somehow yield to more flexible formulations,” writes Crawford Young (1991, p. 345) in “Self-Determination Revisited: Has Decolonization Closed the Question/” in Nzongola-Ntalaja, Georges (ed.), Conflicts in the Horn of Africa, African Studies Association Press, Atlanta.
References
Ayele, Negussay 2001, “EPLF/TPLF and Ethiopia-Eritrea Today: Sow the wind; reap the whirlwind,” October, [Online], Available from
http://www.ethiopians.com/Views/Ethiopia_Eritrea_today.htm.
Cliffe, Lionel 1998, The Regional Dimensions of Conflicts: The Horn of Africa and Southern Africa Compared, Paper No. 5, Occasional Paper Series on Environment and Development in an Age of Transition, Centre for Development Studies, University of Leeds.
Lyons, Terrence 1996, “The International Context of Internal War: Ethiopia/Eritrea,” in Keller, Edmond and Rothchild, Donald (eds.), Africa in the New International Order: Rethinking State Sovereignty and Regional Security, Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO.
The Horn of Africa Bulletin (5)91.
Project Ploughshares is an ecumenical agency of the Canadian Council of Churches, formed to implement the churches’ imperative to pursue peace and justice. The mandate given to Project Ploughshares is to work with churches and related organizations, as well as governments and non-governmental organizations, in Canada and abroad, to identify, develop, and advance approaches that build peace and prevent war, and promote the peaceful resolution of political conflict.
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Food Security EMERGENCY
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) issues periodic emergency alerts when population groups are now, or will soon become, extremely food insecure, unable to meet their consumption needs. These groups have already exhausted their strategies for acquiring food and face imminent famine. Issued December 9, 2002 Revised: January 9, 2003 This Update March 19, 2003
FEWS NET is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and managed by Chemonics International Inc. Contact us in Ethiopia at ethiopia@fews.net or telephone at (251) (1) 510088. Visit the Ethiopia Country Center on the FEWS NET website at www.fews.net .
Pre-famine conditions persist in parts of Ethiopia
On December 7, 2002, the Government of Ethiopia and the United Nations launched a joint appeal for over 1.44 million metric tons of food aid to feed 11.3 million people in 2003 due to rainfall shocks that worsened previously desperate conditions. A further 3 million people required close monitoring. On March 14, the Government and the UN raised these requirements to 1.46 million MT of food aid and $81.1 million of non-food assistance to reflect new needs in additional areas and worsening of needs in areas already being helped. Multi-agency teams led by the DPPC will reassess conditions on the ground to guide targeting these extra needs.
People in parts of Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya and Somali Regions have reached near-famine conditions, an extreme collapse in local availability and access to food that could lead to widespread mortality from outright starvation or hunger-related illnesses. In addition, 2.1 million people are in critical need of water and 16.2 million children are in need of immediate vaccination against measles and distribution of Vitamin A capsules.
While donor pledges since the January Emergency alert have enabled food aid distribution to the drought affected, a significant shortfall remains. In particular, supplementary blended food is in critically short supply. Essential non-food resources to improve food security – seeds, animal health, water and sanitation and emergency health services for the drought affected – are significantly under funded. Due to the insufficient response to date, ongoing food aid distributions have been thinly stretched. Very high rates of malnutrition persist in many areas. Some of these are already experiencing excess mortality.
Actions now by the Ethiopian Government and donor agencies will determine whether these prefamine conditions can be mitigated over the next several months -- or develop into a full-fledged famine.
Pre-famine Conditions Persist in Parts of Ethiopia
Compelling evidence indicates that people are facing pre-famine conditions in parts of Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya and Somali Regions, as well as pockets in
Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ (SNNP), Gambella, Dire Dawa and Harari Regions. According to indicators monitored by FEWS NET:
· Recurrent droughts and poverty have increasingly eroded the capacity of most rural households in Ethiopia to withstand drastic declines in their incomes resulting from adverse weather and economic conditions.
· Households whose livelihoods largely depend on crop and livestock production have suffered substantially reduced crop yields or near-total crop failure due to low and erratic rainfall during the last two consecutive rainy seasons (belg and meher), an unusual occurrence within the same
year (Figure 1).
· The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Ethiopia, in its report released on December 30, 2002, indicated that Ethiopia faces a massive food grain deficit of over 1.8 million metric tons in 2003, most of which needs to be filled through food aid, given the country’s limited ability to import food commercially.
· Widespread livestock deaths in Afar and Somali Regions that peaked between June and August 2002 have left many pastoralists and agro-pastoralists dependent on relief assistance for most of the year.
· Grain prices have increased abruptly since May 2002 to substantially above-average levels, with a disproportionate impact on the purchasing power of already vulnerable
groups. Unseasonably early increases in grain prices in some rural markets have already put food staples out of reach of poor households.
· In cash crop producing areas in western, southwestern and eastern parts of the country, last year’s coffee harvest is estimated to have declined by 20 to 30 percent due to the drought, adversely affecting the incomes of up to 15 million Ethiopians. Chat, a mild stimulant and a major source of cash income in parts of Ethiopia, has also
been similarly affected.
· Rural household resilience is weakening in the faced of frequent drought and inadequate assistance. Traditional livelihood coping strategies continue to weaken further as evidenced by increased sale of both non-productive and productive household assets (such as jewelry and plow oxen, respectively) and consumption of wild “famine foods,” some of which are toxic unless prepared properly.
· Migration of people from the countryside has increased the usual numbers of beggars and homeless in the cities.
· Recent nutrition survey results and field reports are revealing deepening food crisis in previously identified areas and additional needs in emerging food crisis areas. If the short belg (March-May) rains prove to be poor, as predicted by the National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA), further increase in emergency relief requirement can be expected as of July. · Despite ongoing food aid distributions, very high malnutrition rates persist in many areas (Figure 2). Global acute malnutrition (GAM) in children under 5 years exceeds 10 percent in many survey areas, indicating a “serious” situation that calls for adequate general rations, according to World Health Organization standards. GAM exceeds 15 percent in several zones of the country, a level considered “critical.”
· In some of the worst drought affected areas for which nutrition data are available, crude and children under-five mortality rates exceed emergency levels of 1/10,000/day and 2/10,000/day, respectively.
· Some of the drought-affected areas become inaccessible at the peak of the summer rains as of mid-July. Pre-positioning of approximately 80,000 MT of food aid to these areas is required in May and June until the areas become accessible again at the end of the rainy season in September/October.
Adequacy of the Response to Date
Donor food and non-food aid pledges against the December Appeal remain far short of requirements (Table 1). Pledges against non-food emergency relief requirements are critically low, thereby severely undermining the effectiveness of food aid interventions. This is reflected in the persistence of very high rates of malnutrition in many areas. Assuming accelerated delivery of already pledged food aid, available supplies will only cover needs through June, which coincides with the start of the hungry (lean) season in many areas. The Emergency Food Security Reserve is expected to run out at the end of April as more food aid grain is borrowed from the Reserve than repayments are made
Recommendations for Further Action
Relief interventions in many areas are inadequate to counter an impending humanitarian disaster. Given the severe shortfalls in food and non-food aid resources, FEWS NET recommends the following actions to help the country pull itself out of its present food crisis and begin the process of recovery:
- The Ethiopian Government should contribute additional food aid from its own resources as it did in 2000 (100,000 MT) and 2002 (47,600 MT) as a sign of leadership and commitment to heading off famine.
- The USG, EU and other donors, as well as the “non-traditional” food donors, should promptly make further significant food aid pledges to help Ethiopia overcome its current food crisis;
- Donors should urgently make substantial pledges towards non-food emergency relief requirements, as shown in Table 1; and
- Donors and NGOs intending to purchase food aid from surplus producing areas in Ethiopia should buy in phases and in maximum-size lots of 20,000 MT in order to prevent price hikes for consumers.
It is also clear that productive assets and viable livelihoods can only be restored by promoting longer-term development strategies and investments aimed at addressing the root causes of vulnerability to drought and food insecurity in Ethiopia. Accordingly, FEWS NET recommends that the Government and its development partners focus on addressing the core concerns of farmers: protecting security of land tenure, promoting water harvesting, diversifying rural employment and income opportunities away from agriculture in chronically drought prone areas, and enhancing growth linkages between high potential and drought-prone areas through mobility and employment, among others.
Without question, the sheer magnitude of Ethiopia’s 2003 emergency food needs appears daunting. Yet, unlike the 1984/85 famine, viable institutions – such as the DPPC, EFSR and Government-donor coordination mechanisms – are in place to monitor and analyze food security conditions as well as catalyze and coordinate an effective response delivery to the affected population.
A large-scale humanitarian catastrophe can and must be averted through early, appropriate and adequate response to the 2003 emergency by the Ethiopian Government and the wider humanitarian community. FEWS NET intends to remain an advocate for prompt, meaningful action through these alert statements.
http://www.reliefweb.int/
FSAU acknowledges the contribution of key partners FEWS NET, CARE, WFP, SC-UK, UNCU, UNDP
HIGHLIGHTS
Preliminary results of the nutrition survey undertaken in early February in Hargeisa indicate a disappointing lack of improvement in malnutrition rates among children
under 5 years in the returnee/resettlement/ IDP areas in Hargeisa since the previous survey in June 2001. Global acute malnutrition rates now reach 15.3% (Weight for
Height <2 Z-scores or oedema) including 3.8% severe malnutrition (W/H <3 Z-scores or oedema). Assessment of mortality was also undertaken and the rate appears to be
high – data is undergoing further analysis. Low income, reduced access to water and essential services along with unsanitary living conditions are some of the factors
leading to the continuing high malnutrition rates.
Rapid nutrition assessments in Gedo, where significant numbers of households in all food economy groups are failing to acquire adequate food, confirm that food Insecurity continues to be a significant cause of continuing high levels of malnutrition. In late February, using measurement of Mid Upper Arm Circumference as an indicator, less than half the children in Garbaharey, Dolow and Burdhubo were well nourished. Few interventions are in place in Gedo that effectively address the longerterm causes of food insecurity.
The March Nutrition Update continues to highlight continuing high numbers of children in Mogadishu receiving treatment for severe acute malnutrition. The April Nutrition Update will provide the results of recent rapid nutrition assessments in Kismayo and Hiran, in addition to more detailed analysis of interventions in Hiran Hiran. For copies of nutrition survey reports and further information related to nutrition, see the FSAU monthly publication ‘Nutrition Update’ or contact :noreen.prendiville@fsau. or.ke
Highlights from the FSAU ‘Nutrition Update’
FSAU has contracted a software firm to assist in the construction of a data dictionary – a description showing metadata and entity relationships of all technical data in the Unit (including nutrition data). Work has begun and FSAU will be requesting some of its partners to assist by meeting with the software firm and discussing both the types of data and information shared with FSAU as well as the data that they would like to share with the Unit. For more information, contact Charles Rethman, Head of
Information at charles@fsau.or.ke .
FSAU Situation Analysis on pastoralists in Galgadud region — currently experiencing a particularly harsh Jilaal. This information follows field work conducted by a team of FSAU staff during February/March 2003. Situation analysis and possible responses are discussed. Please contact alex.williams@fsau.or.ke for the report.
· Rainfalll in Shinile, Ethiopia : WFP in Ethiopia have reported rains in Shinile (the area adjacent to Awdal and Djibouti). Recent immigrants from Shinile into the Guban of Awdal are aware of this rainfall but FSAU reports that the immigrants have not started returning home because their animals are still weak, the rains are thought to be insufficient and pasture in Shinile has not yet regenerated. See the Regional Summary for North-West and Awdal on page 3.
Shabelle River level dangerously low : The reason for this is unclear but FSAU is investigating what may be causing this. The Shabelle riverbed is almost dry and
the remaining water in the river is dirty. This is not common for the time of year and cases of cholera have been reported in Mogadishu, along with reports of increased water-related diseases along the river. Farmers were less able to use gravity irrigation during the 2002/03 Deyr growing season in the Shabelle Valley and there is concern about the water availability for irrigation during the coming Gu season.
Fuel Prices Rise : Fuel prices have risen sharply in all markets along the two main rivers of Somalia. (Juba and Shabelle) This will have implications for agricultural production as input costs are related to the fuel price, especially when river levels are low. See page 2.
Climate Outlook Forum : The 11th Climate Outlook Forum met at Entebbe between 3-5 March 2003, to forecast rains in the March to May season throughout the Greater Horn of Africa. The Forum forecasted that a ‘nearnormal’ rainy season has the highest probability throughout Somalia, with a slightly higher probability of ‘above-normal’ rainfall in central and southern coastal parts, and a higher probability of ‘below-normal’ rainfall in the Northwest (Somaliland), Northeast (Bari) and southern inland regions (Gedo, Bay, Bakol and Hiran).
While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU, FEWS Net or any of their supporters or partners endorse
any figure or political boundary as definitive.
Further information is available through PO Box 1230, Narobi, Tel: (254-2) 3741299, 3745734, 3748297, Fax: 3740598, E-mail: fsauinfo@fsau.or.ke, or look at www.unsomalia.org under the ‘FSAU’ webpage.
The FSAU is funded by the EC and implemented by FAO. The FSAU Nutrition component is funded by USAID.
Food Aid Distribution
CARE have almost completed their reregistration of former food aid beneficiaries in northern Gedo which currently amounts to about 58% of the beneficiaries they had previously registered in this region. In March CARE distributed approximately 410 MT of general food aid in El Waq district, Gedo region. They plan to start food distribution in Luuq district, Gedo, on the 7th of April, and move on to Dolow and eventually to Belet Hawa districts. Under Food for Work, CARE dispatched about 500 MT to Mogadishu for distribution in Bay, Bakol and Hiran regions. In Tieglo district in Bakol region 120 MT were distributed. In Middle Shabelle, 100 MT were distributed in Aden Yabal district. In Hiran, 60 MT were distributed in Jalalaqsi, 120 MT in Belet Weyne, 50 MT in Mahas and 50 MT in Mataban.
WFP distributed approx. 66 MT in Bay region of which 26 MT was distributed in Baidoa district. In Bakol region 241 MT of food was distributed. In Lower Shabelle region 116 MT were distributed — a significant increase compared to February. In Hiran region 50 MT were distributed, 36 MT were distributed in Awdal, 196 MT in Galbeed, 66 MT in Togdheer, 31 MT in Bari, 3 MT in Nugal, 3 MT in Sool and 4 MT in Mudug regions. In summary, 473 MT were distributed in the South, 298 MT were distributed
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SOMALIA BETWEEN MARCH-MAY 2003
FSAU Monthly Food Security Report April 2003 Between 3-5 March 2003, the eleventh Climate Outlook Forum was convened in Entebbe, Uganda by the Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN). Its aim was to formulate a consensus on the March to May rainfall season in Greater Horn of Africa. The seasonal forecast indicates an increased likelihood of near-normal rainfall over much of Greater Horn of Africa. The rainfall outlook is broken into zones, as indicated in Figure 4. Probabilities of near-normal to above-normal rainfall are higher in zones III, VII and IX. Zones, II, IV, and V are more likely to get nearnormal to below-normal rainfall. The chances of below-normal rainfall are even higher in zones VI and VIII.
The period, March to May, constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Great Horn of Africa. In Somalia, this period corresponds to the beginning of the critically important Gu (main) rainy season. As seen in this map, the Climate Outlook Forum divides Somalia into three main zones (IV, III and V). The Forum forecasted that a ‘near-normal’ rainy season has the highest probability throughout Somalia, with a slightly higher probability of ‘above-normal’ rainfall in central and southern coastal parts, and a higher probability of ‘below-normal’ rainfall in the Northwest (Somaliland), Northeast (Bari) and southern inland regions (Gedo, Bay, Bakol
and Hiran) FEWS-Net Somalia will provide additional information on the implications of the forecast on food security in those regions. MARS (Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing), reported in their latest crop bulletin issued April 7 (Ftp://mars.jrc.it/bulletin/ somalia) that large parts of Somalia had received some first Gu rains during [20-31 March] with peaks of more than 10 mm in Juba and Gedo Regions.
Benadir
Normally in the Jilaal season, local cereal and milk become more scarce and prices increase in markets throughout Somalia. In comparison, prices of imported commodities, especially sugar, rice and fuel usually remain stable or even decrease slightly.
It is usually during the Gu rainy season (April-July), that prices of imported commodities increase moderately and then during the high tide season (June- August) increase sharply. Nonetheless, this Jilaal season, the prices of imported commodities have increased earlier than expected. This price increase is attributed to uncertainty surrounding the war in Iraq because imported commodities are mostly traded through the Persian Gulf countries. figures 1, 2 and 3 in the far column on the right show the price trends for imported sugar, fuel and US dollars in three main markets on the two rivers: Mogadishu, Belet Weyne and Bardera, for the last two years (March 2001-March 2003).
Comparing fuel prices across different markets, Bardera has the highest prices due to the high transportation costs from Mogadishu. Fuel prices are lower in Mogadishu and Belet Weyne. A similar trend is also observed for sugar. However, the Somali shilling/US dollar exchange rate shows the same trends in all three markets because the banking system does not require the costly physical transfer of funds from location to location, allowing the foreign exchange markets to be closely integrated.
Reports from the field indicate a lack of fuel in most markets, causing an increase in prices of other commodities as well as a reduction in cash cropping, attributed to the lack of fuel or the expensive price of fuel for pump irrigation. Farmers are concerned about the Gu rain forecast, especially in the irrigated areas, due to currently low river levels. Fuel price rises also worry urban dwellers, which rely on fuel purchases for their livelihoods. Over the last three months, fuel prices in Bardera have jumped from Ssh 9,900 per litre in December 2002 to Ssh 11,500 in March 2003, an increase of approximately 16 per cent.
A nutrition survey in May 2002 (following failed Gu rains) found 21% of children malnourished (significantly associated with morbidity), poor sanitation and dependence on hand-dug wells and the river for drinking water.
The SFP started in January 2003, after the Deyr harvest. The programme gives a supplementary ration to children and a household ration.
Beneficiary numbers have been steadily increasing with most reportedly from labouring households. This seems to contrast with food security indicators – increased labouring opportunities, good terms of trade, plentiful Deyr stocks. FSAU’s rapid MUAC assessment (March 2003) showed no increase in malnutrition prevalence. The increase in SFP numbers could therefore be increased child morbidity (nutritional insecurity) coupled with greater awareness of the SFP. Morbidity and access to water are
considerably worse during the survey as water sources have dried up. NB: There is deep concern about the coming Gu. Even if rains are timely the high fuel price, low grain price and increase in fuel requirements might prove disastrous for farmers, discouraging production. Agencies are warning against food relief. Water, sanitation and health seem to be critical factors for malnutrition.
BARI REGION
The food security situation in the coastal FEZ is below normal due to devaluation of the Shilling against the US dollar making poorer households particularly vulnerable.
However, the situation in Dharoor and Sool FEZ is normal though the depreciation of the shilling is likely to impact negatively on the poorer groups. There were some
sporadic rains in the coastal and Sool FEZs and no rains in the Dharoor FEZ. Pasture is normal in most areas of the Bari region. Livestock prices have increased by about
10% for both local and export quality. This is good for the purchasing power of the pastoralists. Water access is normal in coastal and Sool FEZs but there are shortages
in some areas of Dharoor FEZ such as Uur Aleed.
REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY HIGHLIGHTS AS REPORTED BY FSAU FIELD MONITORS
Every month, the 22 FSAU Field Monitors provide in depth information on food security indicators in their areas. If you would like to obtain a copy of their district reports - please contact alex.williams@fsau.or.ke. The Regional highlights are a summary of this field information.
SOUTH NUGAL & NORTH MUDUG
In the Hawd food economy, harsh jilaal weather has resulted in above-normal livestock migration from other food economy zones in south Nugal and eastern Addun, forcing native pastoralists to migrate to even more remote areas, far from berkad water points. This has resulted in increased water trucking from berkads to the pasture sites. As
a result, the price of water has doubled compared to last month. The poor receive little support with water as it is expensive and this has put pressure on their staple-food expenditure. However, access to food is still normal for all wealth groups as milk and meat consumption has increased slightly following the early birth of shoats. Income for the households has generally improved due to increased demand for local quality shoats — they can be bartered for water. In the Addun food economy the Jilaal weather has caused most wealth groups apart from those in the extreme western parts to move to the water rich areas in eastern and southern parts. The water condition has normalized due to scanty rains in the coastal areas where most the people migrated to. However, poor infrastructure and the sheer remoteness of this area has resulted in high food prices which are above-normal. Furthermore, the lower middle and the poor are not able to access markets due to remoteness of the area and have no
income from sales of livestock; making it more difficult for them to purchase food. Access to milk for the poor households has improved due to the newly kidded shoats,
though this is not enough for sale. Compared to last month the situation has generally improved, however further improvement will depend on the Gu rains starting on time. If they do not, the poor from both food economies will be extremely vulnerable, especially those in the eastern parts of the Hawd Pastoral and extreme western parts of the Addun
SANAG & TOGHDEER
The general food security situation of these two regions is normal to below normal; despite some areas being badly affected by the poor Gu and Deyr rains, widespread depletion of natural resources and serious water shortages, which have been reported in some areas of the Sool plateau. With exception of some villages in the Hawd and Sool plateau, water availability and accessibility for human and livestock is normal to below normal (given the time of year). Some water points have had been pressured by high livestock density beyond their capacity. In other parts the berkads are empty, and no available alternative water sources apart from expensive water trucking is possible. Abnormal livestock migration caused by water shortages has been more common in Sool plateau in eastern Sanaag and in the Hawd of Togdheer.
Camel herds migrated to Region Five of Ethiopia in search of better pasture and water.
The movement is more than normal in number, frequency and distance. There have been some sporadic rains in the Xadeed eco-zone and the prime grazing areas between Dagaar and God-Caanood, west of Erigavo district also received these rains. SOOL (and the Buhoodle Hawd) The Nugal Valley and Hawd Plateau FEZ’s have a normal food security situation while the Sool plateau of Sool region is in an alarming condition due to pasture and water scarcity. This has led to very bad herd condition and high animal mortalities, particularly for camels, with attendant cessation of milk/ meat production and lost marketability. Water trucking is underway. The price per drum
went from Sshs. 10,000 to 40,000. Overall, there has been increased staple food purchase by families, while water remained the only other expenditure possible at the moment. Poor pastoralists and the lower stratum of the middle wealth group have limited access to enough daily food intakes, they are estimated altogether at 3,500 households. Terms of trade: The baseline for Nugal Valley was 1 shoat (local quality) = 45 kg grain, while currently it is 139 kg. 1 litre of fresh camel milk was 1.6 kg, and currently 1 litre fetches 0.75 kg.
NORTH WEST & AWDAL
There has been some relief from the highlands (‘Ogo’) of Awdal and Galbeed regions stretching to the agro-pastoral areas of Gabiley and Borama, following what appears
to be the commencement of the Gu rains. These areas received slight and sporadic showers, known locally as Todob, in mid March 2003. Most local migrants to the
Guban (coastal/sub-coastal) area from Awdal and even from Hargeisa and Gabiley districts moved back to their permanent settlements. This has relieved some of the grazing pressure on the already exhausted pasture. Following a visit to the Guban of Awdal region, ADO (a local NGO in Somaliland) reported that the Issa-owned cattle from Ethiopia started calving but due to the poor pasture and increasing temperatures, the owners slaughtered the newly-born calves in order to save the mothers. This practice is common as calves born in the dry season as they have hardly have any chance of survival. Normally, the mating period for cattle is regulated so that calving occurs at the beginning of the rainy season in Shinile Zone (Ethiopia), but owing to the long migration into Somaliland, cows are calving in areas that are still
dry, with extremely poor pasture. The FSAU livestock Officer recently visited areas along the border with Shinile Zone (Harirad and its pastoral areas) and reported that Gu rains had been received in Shinile, Dembal, Aisha’a up to Dire-Dawa, an encouraging event. However, sporadic distribution (frequency) and intensity (volume) of rainfall has not been sufficient to regenerate enough fodder for cattle and sheep. Even so, the Issa immigrants to the Guban have not begun returning for three reasons:
1. The animals are still too weak to travel and recent calving will further delay their return.
2. There is insufficient fodder along the way for the long trek back home.
3. Rainfall and vegetative growth are insufficient back home, and there is uncertainty about the current rains and their intensity.
NORTH NUGAL & SOUTH BARI
March is the last month of the dry Jilaal season where livestock emaciation with 2 – 5% mortality rate is normal for the period. The food security situation is normal except in the lower Nugal areas adjacent to Sool region where rainfall has been below normal. There have been sporadic rains in late March in Hawd, Sool, Iyah, and Coastal/Deh FEZs of Garowe, Gardo, Dangoroyo, and Eil. The impact of the rains on pasture re-growth is being monitored. Some berkeds in Hawd have some water. Flash floods are also reported in some parts of Hawd/Addun FEZ. Nugal FEZ is experiencing some difficulties following rain failure in two consecutive years and pasture and grazing remain minimal. Close monitoring is required of both livestock and populations in the lower Nugal, Sool, and Sanag areas. Water is not yet a critical issue because of the availability of natural springs and shallow wells. The timely arrival of the Gu rains will improve the situation. Pasture in the Hawd, Sool and Iyah FEZ are poorer in
comparison to the previous months. Water prices have almost doubled (in SSh.) when compared to the beginning of the season. Livestock prices (especially shoats) have
increased by over 20% for both local and export quality. Sorghum prices have marginally dropped while rice has had no significant change. Terms of trade (shoats/cereals)
have improved in favour of pastoralists in comparison to the previous month. Milk prices have increased by about 20% due to the limited supply. Lobster fishing season is
tailing off and income from this activity is reducing.
GEDO
This is the last month of the Jilaal season (known as kal danbeed) with extremely hot weather. Conditions are, however, better than March last year. Despite seasonal movements, livestock that did return are still within the region and water and pasture condition is normal (better in the south than in the north). This affects production and body condition. An endemic livestock disease (goats and cattle) was observed but VSF/EPAG provided drugs. Staple foods are available in the markets at normal prices. Poor households from all food economy zones in the north, with limited assets and income options, still have difficulty accessing enough food —hence malnutrition rates are expected to remain high. Prices of the imported commodities are high due to high transportation costs.
LOWER SHABELLE
The usual dry weather (Jilaal) prevails in the region; water is scarce especially in northern parts of Qoryoley and north/ eastern part of Brave district. River water is extremely low compared to normal. Most middle and better off wealth groups have enough cereal stocks at household level. Poor riverine households have been effected by conflict experiencing cereal shortfalls in Qoryoley and Kurtun warey districts. Agricultural employment activity is available —both harvesting of late planted sesame and land preparation for the Gu season. However farmers are worrying about the increase in fuel prices which might affect the ploughing operation. Livestock condition is good while pasture is scarce so animals are migrating to riverine areas where there are grazing opportunities in crop stocks, fallow fields and flood receded areas. The price of local maize has increased by 15 percent from last month due to the high transport cost and high demand in Mogadishu market.
COWPEA BELT
The cowpea belt districts (Adenyabal, Adale, Elder, Galhareri, Hara-dhere and Hobyo) are experiencing the normal Jilaal season with declining staple food stocks, pasture, water is well as livestock products. Decrease in water availability has caused the price of water increase by 20% for a barrel of 200 litres during last month. The pasture and grazing are poor and livestock body condition is deteriorating, with livestock migrating in search of pasture and water. Due to the dry Jilaal season staple food stocks have been consumed and therefore have significantly reduced. A sustainable off-take of livestock has been sold as a normal coping strategy. The zones mainly affected
by food shortages due to reduced food stocks are locations mainly in Adale and Warsheik. Dry land farming system action has begun.
JUBA VALLEY
The weather is hot and humid, showing signs of the Gu season beginning soon. Water access is poor inland, while southern part of Buale, pastoralists could not access deshek and river___ Jilaal season grazing areas
due to insecurity hence moved to Afmadow and Sakow districts. Insecurity in Buale also disturbed livelihood sources for
riverine food economy group. Moreover, no signs of land preparation activities for the Gu season is being observed in riverine villages especially south east of Buale which is abnormal at this time of the year. This may have a negative crop production implication during the Gu season. In the rest of the valley, the overall food security situation is normal. The availability of staple food in the markets is fairly good with normal prices. However, the price of imported commodities, remains high mainly due to the depreciation of the Somali Shilling and high transportation cost from Mogadishu. Livestock condition is good and prices increased slightly compared to last month, as seasonal demand is high in Garissa, Kenya. Unknown cattle disease was observed in Salagle and Nusdunia zone west of Sakow with direct food security implications for pastoral and agropastoral food economy groups.
GALGADUD
Conditions among the Haud pastoralists in NW Galgadud remain alarming. Animal production is poor and livestock mortality higher than normal. Terms of trade for marketable animals is good but many animals are in poor condition. The Haj temporarily increased livestock exports last month. Water prices are 50% higher than normal and poor pastoralists who cannot buy or “borrow” water have migrated to towns. 30% of camels have migrated into Ethiopia. ICRC has rehabilitated critical boreholes and berkads and reports better water access than last year. Reports of livestock morbidity include parasitic diseases, and possible goat pleura-pneumonia – which requires investigation. Late Gu rains will result in a critical situation with increased migration to permanent water sources and towns. There are early signs of rain, but the
situation requires close monitoring. For a copy of the FSAU report on Galgadud contact alex. williams@fsau.or.ke
HIRAN
The region had a good Deyr season crop and livestock production, and good income earning opportunities, hence there are good terms of trade and purchasing power for farmers. High Jilaal temperatures (as usual) have reduced pasture and water availability and poor body condition has diminished sales. Urban migration during
Jilaal caused milk prices to increase. High demand for sorghum from central Somalia and reduced supply from Bay and this has maintained prices in town. Road security in Middle Shabelle has ensured continued maize supply into the region. Concern is being raised for the coming Gu because of the recent fuel price hike. This, together with increased water use for irrigation (the river level is abnormally low) will threaten Gu production even if rains are normal. Low availability of drinking water is contributing
to infectious disease which could be a factor behind the reported increase in SFP beneficiaries. Investigations are needed to ascertain why the river level is so low and the causes of malnutrition in town.
MIDDLE SHABELLE
The region has experienced dry weather. Pasture and grazing conditions are below normal and most of the cattle have moved to riverine areas for water and grazing while sheep have moved to the coastal plains where shallow wells are available. Camel and goats are concentrated near boreholes. The sesame harvest is in its final stages. Gu land preparation is under way in both rainfed and irrigated areas. Maize and sorghum price have increased by 30 percent and 35 percent as compared to last month due to the low supply and high demand from other regions.
BAKOL
Its been hot, dry and humid other than a few scattered showers in southern Hudur district, making little difference to water and pasture availability. Dry season water shortages are affecting all agro-pastoral groups and are particularly acute (affecting pastoralists as well) in the southeast and southwest of Hudur and in Rabdhure districts. These are the farming areas of Rabdhure and Hudur district that now have low cereal stocks following a poor deyr. Poorer households in these areas have been selling off
their stocks and resorting to increased selfemployment and other coping strategies –in order to afford minimum household needs. This will make food access difficult for these households during the planting season and the Food for Work projects in these are described as beneficial. Livestock condition is good (for the time of year) and market demand (reportedly from Yemen and Kenya) for shoats and cattle is high. Consequently, animals are fetching high prices and terms of trade for pastoralists are
good. Milk production is lower than normal (affected by the reproduction rate) and although milk prices are high, overall income for pastoralists is lower. Milk is also therefore more inaccessible for the poor. There have been increased numbers of malnourished children reporting to Rabdhure and Hudur health facilities, this is attributed to a high prevalence of water-borne disease as catchments dry up.
BAY
The ongoing Jilaal season has limited water availability for both livestock and human needs, placing stress on the catchments. Livestock tend to be located near
farming areas and are using crop residues –this will change as farming activities increase and they move to the rangelands (farmers have begun preparing their fields). Pasture and grazing are normal (given the season) and milk production is still quite good, due to the good Deyr. Land preparation has provided renewed labour opportunities for the poor, while the self-employment/collection activities are also available. Currently, milk and livestock prices are high compared with that of staple, making terms of trade for livestock owners favourable. Labour/ staple terms of trade are somewhat poor (10-12 kg per person-day, compared with 15 kg per person-day previously available)
and with the higher cost of animal products (especially milk) and imported goods (due to shilling devaluation, rising fuel costs), food quality and nutritional status for the poor are affected.
International Save the Children Alliance Food Security Update March 2003
Anna Jeffreys
Save the Children - UK
Overview of the Current Situation
Drought conditions have continued to prevail over most parts of Ethiopia in early 2003, extending the dramatic decline in crop production in certain areas of Somali, Tigray, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNPR Regions. According to current reports, over 11 million people, or 17% of the population are facing difficulties in accessing food because of the drought. The most recent research emanating from the WFP and the Government Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) indicates that, as of mid-February, areas still experiencing critical drought and critical food insecurity include Wag Hamra, Shinille, Korahei, Oromiya, North and South Gonder, North and South Wollo, and East Gojjam. It is expected that the impacts of the poor rains in 2002 will be experienced throughout 2003. So far, according to estimates, crop production in 2002-03 was 21% lower than the five-year average for the country overall. According to the WFP food aid needs have been rising, from 7.1 million in need of food in January, to 9.9 million people in March. There are concerns that the situation in some areas which are currently being closely monitored will deteriorate to the degree that intervention will be imminently needed. Assessment teams are being sent out to all of the affected regions in March to analyse the zones and woredas in which this is the case. ion people in March. There are concerns that the situation in some areas which are currently being closely monitored will deteriorate to the degree that intervention will be imminently needed. Assessment teams are being sent out to all of the affected regions in March to analyse the zones and woredas in which this is the case. ion people in March. There are concerns that the situation in some areas which are currently being closely monitored will deteriorate to the degree that intervention will be imminently needed. Assessment teams are being sent out to all of the affected regions in March to analyse the zones and woredas in which this is the case. ion people in March. There are concerns that the situation in some areas which are currently being closely monitored will deteriorate to the degree that intervention will be imminently needed. Assessment teams are being sent out to all of the affected regions in March to analyse the zones and woredas in which this is the case.
In general, in 2002, rains were late in coming, and ceased early, with widespread impacts on crop and livestock production in late 2002 and early 2003. They led to losses of short season crops (teff and pulses), as well as severely impacting long-season crops (such as maize and sorghum). Many pastoralists and agro-pastoralists hadn’t recovered sufficiently from the 2000 drought, meaning their ability to cope with further problems in 2002 had been eroded. In many areas livestock prices have been steadily declining, while cereal prices have sharply increased, disrupting people’s ability to access food. Water and pasture deficits have led to unusual migrations of households and cattle in some of the drought affected areas, particularly in Somali Region, in search of better pasture and water availability. Livestock deaths have also been experienced throughout the country, affecting not only livelihoods, but people’s access to milk and dairy during the dry ‘hungry’ season.
The severity of the drought is even more critical in the pastoral areas, particularly in Afar and Somali Regions, which experienced a near failure of the Karan/Gu rains (due in July and late March, respectively). In these regions, impacts of the drought include widespread livestock losses, rising grain prices, the distress sales of household assets, depressed prices, unseasonal migration, increased selling of wood and charcoal, increased labour competition leading to reduced wages, and rising malnutrition.
Food Availability and Donor Response
FAO/WFP estimate that the meher harvest is currently 25% smaller than last year’s Ministry of Agriculture post-harvest estimates. This represents a 21% decline from the average for the previous five years. According to the FAO/WFP assessments, Ethiopia will face 2.3 million metric tonnes (mt.) of food deficit in 2003. There are concerns that the situation in some areas which are currently being closely monitored will deteriorate to the degree that intervention will be needed imminently, and assessments are currently underway to ascertain whether or not this is the case. According to the DPPC and WFP, food reserves are currently sufficient to cover May at a reduced ration size of 12.5 k per person, as opposed to 15kg. However, there is likely to be a shortfall of 32% in June. Meanwhile, just 50% of the total supplementary food needs were met in February. With current pledges, 74% of the supplementary food requirements are planned to be met this month, and some 60% in April.
Impact of Recent Rainfall
In December, untimely rains fell in central Ethiopia, with mixed impacts, though overall the impact was more positive than negative in terms of improving pasture and water supplies. According to the DPPC, these rains had the potential to help some livestock recover but did not have a significant impact on the food situation overall. In general, the rains that occurred in December were not used to plant crops, with the possible exception of belg-dependent areas in the northeast and transitional crops in the southwest region of SNNPR. In the north, farmers used these rains to begin land preparation for the belg season. In Central, Southern and Eastern Tigray, the unexpected December rains helped to alleviate water and pasture shortages. While there were fears that the rains would damage crops that had been planted, evidence has shown that most farmers had collected their crops by the time they arrived. Further south in the highlands, and in Amhara region, Central Oromiya and SNNPR, rains contributed to post-harvest losses, however, minimal. Meanwhile, in the lowlands of Oromiya and SNNPR, the rains contributed to better water and pasture conditions. In the Somali region, the short rains that had been expected in November, were late and thus had less impact than hoped, leaving drought conditions to persist. This was particularly the case in the Zones of Shinille, Korahei, and parts of Jijiga and Gode, where water shortages have led to unusual livestock migrations. These short hais rains however, never have a significant impact since they rarely last more than a few days. vest losses, however, minimal. Meanwhile, in the lowlands of Oromiya and SNNPR, the rains contributed to better water and pasture conditions. In the Somali region, the short rains that had been expected in November, were late and thus had less impact than hoped, leaving drought conditions to persist. This was particularly the case in the Zones of Shinille, Korahei, and parts of Jijiga and Gode, where water shortages have led to unusual livestock migrations. These short hais rains however, never have a significant impact since they rarely last more than a few days. vest losses, however, minimal. Meanwhile, in the lowlands of Oromiya and SNNPR, the rains contributed to better water and pasture conditions. In the Somali region, the short rains that had been expected in November, were late and thus had less impact than hoped, leaving drought conditions to persist. This was particularly the case in the Zones of Shinille, Korahei, and parts of Jijiga and Gode, where water shortages have led to unusual livestock migrations. These short hais rains however, never have a significant impact since they rarely last more than a few days. vest losses, however, minimal. Meanwhile, in the lowlands of Oromiya and SNNPR, the rains contributed to better water and pasture conditions. In the Somali region, the short rains that had been expected in November, were late and thus had less impact than hoped, leaving drought conditions to persist. This was particularly the case in the Zones of Shinille, Korahei, and parts of Jijiga and Gode, where water shortages have led to unusual livestock migrations. These short hais rains however, never have a significant impact since they rarely last more than a few days. rations. These short hais rains however, never have a significant impact since they rarely last more than a few days.
This Bulletin outlines the current food security situation and the subsequent response by the International Save the Children Alliance, which is made up of five agencies in Ethiopia: Save the Children Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK and US. These agencies are operational or work through partners in the Zones of Somali, Amhara, Oromiya and Tigray, some of the most drought-prone Zones in the country. The International Save the Children Alliance has a wealth of experience in these areas, and has developed an in-depth understanding of livelihoods and food security related issues in each of them over the years. Through the early warning monitoring work that the Alliance undertakes with local partners, including government authorities, UN agencies, and other NGOs both local and international, it is able to closely monitor changes as they occur region to region, and district (woreda) to district to develop a picture of the ever changing food security situation, and the likely effects of change upon communities.
International Save the Children Alliance Response
Somali Region
Context
The situation in Somali Region continues to be mixed. Save the Children is operational in Shinille, Jijiga, Fik, Gode, and Liba Zones,, all of which are described as being in critical condition by the WFP. According to the DPPC, the food security situation generally deteriorated in January, but this was expected, as the region is in the midst of the long dry jilaal season. Throughout the region the deyr rains started early or on time, but in the Zones of Degehabur, Fik, and Gode they also ceased early. Whilst improving pasture and browsing resources, the rains did not have much of a long-term impact in Shinille, Fik, Korahei, Jijiga, Gode or Afder Zones. In all of these Zones, the food security situation is deteriorating and is expected to continue to do so as the dry season progresses. Areas of Shinille, Fik, Warder, Gode, Korahei and parts of Liban and Jijiga are also critically in need of water interventions, with Shinille the most critically affected.
The livelihoods of pastoralists have been severely affected, leading to widespread livestock migration in the region, in particular to Oromiya, Afar and Somaliland.
Terms of trade for pastoral and agro-pastoral groups were mixed across the Region. In Shinille, Warder, Korahei, Gode, and most of Degahbur they have been steadily declining, disrupting people’s access to food. The poor condition of livestock has led to a low market demand, and poor terms of trade between shoats and grain. The failure of agricultural production in the neighbouring areas of Oromiya has contributed to food insecurity.
Incidences of diarrhoea have been widely reported, although the situation is generally improving. Many areas with chronic water problems in the dry season have started to face shortages.
According to the DPPC’s plans, while December food aid requirements in the region were 9,552 mt., distributions amounted to just 2,836 metric tonnes (mt.) meaning just 36% of the total needed was received. In January a total of 11,056 mt. of cereals, and 367 mt. supplementary food were allocated to the region. This represents 74% of the Region’s cereal requirements, and 56% of the supplementary food needs. WFP predicts that approximately one million people will be in need of food aid in Somali during 2003: 284,224 of them in Shinille; 215,338 in Jijiga; 199,332 in Fik; 91,500 in Gode; 44,161 in Korahei; 96,000 in Afder; and 50,800 in Liban.
Shinille, Fik, Gode and Liban
Water shortages have been prevalent in all of these areas though this is expected during the jilaal. While Fik, Gode, and parts of Liban and Jijiga Zones have all been affected, Shinille Zone has experienced the most severe impacts of the drought.
The emergency situation in Shinille deteriorated during January as distress migrations continued, and high malnutrition rates emerged. Jijiga and Shinille usually receive four to five days of rainfall in December but in 2002 these rains started late. Though Shinille eventually received a decent rainfall, it had little impact on crop production conditions. In early January, many drought-affected people started to migrate with their livestock from eastern Shinille in all directions, many of them to Adwal Region. Herders migrated to East Hararghe, and parts of Jijiga and Fik Zones in an effort to preserve their remaining herds. Unusually, pastoralists also began moving from Ayesha and Shinille districts to Guba, Somaliland. Significant numbers of livestock have been dying on their way, particularly near the Somalia border. While significant numbers of camels, shoats and some cattle remain in the Zone, they are predominantly concentrated in the southern foothills. Diseases associated with unsanitary water conditions broke out in the Zone in January, according to the Ministry of Health. As Shinille enters the harshest period of the jilaal (locally known as kaliil) enhanced water, food and supplementary feeding interventions are needed.tions broke out in the Zone in January, according to the Ministry of Health. As Shinille enters the harshest period of the jilaal (locally known as kaliil) enhanced water, food and supplementary feeding interventions are needed.tions broke out in the Zone in January, according to the Ministry of Health. As Shinille enters the harshest period of the jilaal (locally known as kaliil) enhanced water, food and supplementary feeding interventions are needed.tions broke out in the Zone in January, according to the Ministry of Health. As Shinille enters the harshest period of the jilaal (locally known as kaliil) enhanced water, food and supplementary feeding interventions are needed.
In Fik Zone, according to the DPPC, approximately 35,000 people have been affected by the drought. Many of the common water points have dried up, leading the Disaster Prevention, Preparedness Bureau (DPPB) to scale up tankering operations in the Zone with the help of international NGOs. While SC-UK and Government food interventions have helped to improve access to food and to keep prices down in early 2003, the food security situation is still precarious now that the jilaal is underway. Water and pasture conditions have become very poor in most parts of the Zone meaning livestock condition and production has started to deteriorate. This has partly been due to an influx of large numbers of livestock and people from neighbouring Zones in the last quarter of 2002. Agro-pastoral groups, which comprise about 20% of the population, are among the most affected by the current hardships, largely because their herd sizes are relatively smaller than those of pastoralists.
In July and August 2002, the western part of Afdem and Meisso districts received karan rains. However, the failure of the Wabi Shebelle, Fafen and Weyb rivers to flood has meant that agro-pastoralists in these districts will receive minimum harvests this year. ENCU, SC-UK, funded by UNICEF, and the Federal and Regional DPPC undertook a nutritional survey in these districts in December 2002 . A summary of the findings indicated that Global Acute Malnutrition rates were approximately 13.7% The food security situation in Afdem district seems to have deteriorated faster than expected, despite decent deyr rains. According to the DPPC, the immediate concern focuses on internally displaced people (IDPs) who are living in the Zone. Livestock migration is taking place earlier than usual from these districts to other parts of the Zone. Restrictions in cross-border trade from Somali and the failure of local crops meanwhile, have resulted in low cereal supplies.
In Gode, the 2002 deyr rains were the worst in three years, lasting six days instead of the usual 30. Accordingly, livestock conditions have continued to deteriorate due to a shortage of pasture and water, leading to livestock migration from Kalafo and Mustahil to other parts of Gode Zone, as well as to Somalia. Food insecurity is prevalent due to crop failure, early exhaustion of pasture, and water shortages, and these conditions are expected to continue as the dry season progresses. The food security situation of pastoralists meanwhile, seems to be stable.
The deyr rains continued up to December 2002 in most parts of Liban Zone, and their positive effects were felt until January, with pasture in decent condition in most parts of the Zone. The food security prospects are nevertheless unstable, due to poor human health, and large numbers of IDPs residing in the Zone. The water situation will require both short and long-term interventions. While livestock conditions are currently good to normal, some diseases have been reported.
Save the Children Response
SC US is currently operational in Erer and Ayesha districts, while SC-UK is sub-granted through USAID to run emergency operations in Shinille and Dembal.
Assessments
Through grants obtained by the Gates Foundation, SC-UK and SC-US worked in conjunction with the DPPC and the Federal DPPC to conduct a nutritional survey in the pastoral/agropasroal districts of Erer, Ayesha, Shinille, Meisso, Afdem and Dembal. Its aim was to estimate the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) and thereby forward recommendations for short and long term intervention. UNICEF funding was provided for the Meisso/Afdem assessments. According to the survey, GAM rates were particularly critical in Shinille, at 15.7% Meanwhile, a joint SC-UK-US December nutrition assessment reported 16-18% malnutrition rates in Afdem and Meisso districts.
Food Aid
Humanitarian interventions continued during January, February and March. SC-US, SC-UK, and ICRC allocated and distributed food aid in Shinille Zone; SC-UK in Dembal and Shinille, and SC US in two other districts. SC-US and SC-UK have been provided with funding through USAID, and JEOP (Joint Emergency Operation Plan of USAID) , DFID, and the Gates Foundation in this Region. Both organisations work in conjunction with the Regional and Federal DPPC throughout the region.
In December, through grants obtained by the Gates Foundation and UNICEF, SC-US and SC-UK worked in conjunction with the regional and Federal DPPC to conduct three nutritional surveys in the above Zones. Results indicated that Global Acute Malnutrition rates, at 15.7%, were particularly high in Shinille. SC-UK provided 6,400 mt. of DFID-backed food aid to until January 2003. The organisation also distributed 1,478 mt. of grain to Fik Zone in February through USAID/JEOP funding, and plans to provide a total of 4,434 mt. until May 2003. Meanwhile, between January and May 2003, SC-UK will provide 722 mt. of supplementary food to Shinille. Between December 2002 and February 2003, the organisation already delivered 3,160 mt of USAID-funded grain to Shinille. Another 4,317 mt. is expected to be distributed from March to May.
SC-US provided 3,807 mt. of food aid to Somali Region in December and January of this year. The organisation plans to deliver a total of 15,168 mt. for Somali, East Hararghe and Amhara regions, between January and May 2003. SC US will also distribute 1,963mt. of supplementary food to Somali Region between March and May. Meanwhile, over the next five years, SC-US has additional plans to provide $6 million worth of USAID-funded supplementary food to malnourished children in this region, as well as income generation activities for the Afdem district.
Water
Several common water points, including shallow wells, hand dug wells, and ponds, have dried up throughout Shinille Zone. SC-US received Gates Foundation funding to provide water tankering to Shinille and Dembal. SC-US with help from SC-UK, has provided four water tankers for Ayesha, Shinille, and Dembal, and thus far has distributed over 2.2 million litres of water to 50,000 beneficiaries in 22 distribution sites. Nevertheless, these amounts are not sufficient to meet people’s daily requirements.
Emergency Education
SC-US will be intervening in school feeding, water and sanitation, and the provision of teaching materials to 250 schools in drought-affected districts across Afar, Somali, Oromiya and Gembelle Regions, in an USAID-funded project.
Livestock
Funded by the Gates Foundation, SC-US conducted livestock vaccination and treatment campaigns in Ayesha and Dembal districts, providing four types of vaccines, veterinary instruments, and related field materials to these areas in December 2002. The operation was headed by a SC-US team, and involved two veterinary teams from the Shinille Zone Ministry of Agriculture. Though a total of 243,847 and 116,330 heads of livestock were vaccinated, severe shortages of livestock drugs continue to be a problem in the region.
Amhara Region
Context
Save the Children is operational in four Zones in the region: North and South Wollo, Wag Hamra North Gonder. In 2002 crop production in Amhara was severely affected by poor rains in the later part of the belg season, delays in the onset of the meher rains, and their disruption between the second and third weeks of July 2002. Because of the short belg, and late meher, planting of long-cycle crops was delayed leading agro-pastoralists to switch to short-cycle varieties. Poor harvests were reaped due to poor soils and limited preparation time. Overall, in 2002, production was estimated to be 17% lower than 2001. Reductions meanwhile, at Zonal level, vary from 51% in Wag Hamra to 9% in North Gonder.
The eastern lowland areas of Amhara, including East Gojjam, and parts of North and South Gonder, North and South Wollo, experienced acute shortages of pasture and water by the end of 2002. Significant numbers of cattle died throughout Amhara Region, including Save the Children’s operational areas of North and South Wollo, and North Gonder.
In 2003, the belg rains seem to have been promising in belg crop-producing areas of North and South Wollo, meaning planting and cultivation has gone ahead. No rain has been reported as of yet for Wag Hamra or North Gonder Zones, though none is expected. There are no current reports of livestock problems, or of unusual coping mechanisms.
According to the DPPC, a total of 5,553 mt. of food aid was distributed in Amhara in December. In this month, unseasonal rainfall fell throughout the region, with the exception of North Gonder. According to the WFP, drought-affected areas, including lowland areas of Wag Hamra, benefited from improved pasture and water resources, reducing some of the stress migration that had been taking place.
North and South Wollo, North Gonder and Wag Hamra Zones
Save the Children Denmark is operational in Gidan woreda in North Wollo. The economic mainstay in this woreda is subsistence agriculture, but unreliability of rainfall, poor soil fertility, and environmental degradation have led to poor agricultural production. The area is primarily belg producing, but in 2002 it faced a failure in both belg and meher rains. According to the DPPC, a total of 4,189 people have been critically affected.
South Wollo, according to the WFP, experienced production declines of 40% in 2002-03 compared to 2001-2002. Nutritional surveys in hard hit areas along the eastern escarpment such as Dessie Zuria and Kalu, indicate that the situation has not significantly improved with the meher harvest. The NGO ‘Concern’ reported malnutrition levels of up to 17.2% and 16.6% in certain areas of the region. In Sekota woreda for instance, households in a typical year meanwhile, will obtain 41% of the food they need through their own crop production, will purchase 31% of their food needs, and are reliant on food aid to cover the rest. However, as a result of the drought, are facing significant reductions in their own crop production, as well as their purchasing power, thus their reliance on external help has significantly increased.
According to the WFP, North Gonder Zone experienced production declines of 44% in 2002-03, as opposed to 2001-02, severely affecting the livelihoods and food security of poor households. The DPPC reports that 473,000 people are affected by the drought. However, while the region is keen to re-assess certain areas due to potential late losses of crops linked to the unseasonal rainfall in November, there are currently no areas causing immediate concern.
Save the Children Response
Save the Children Denmark (SC-D) is operational in Gidan district in North Wollo. SC-D is strengthening its ongoing education work by providing school-feeding and nutritional support to 2,000 children and mothers, and by distributing grain to 4,189 people. The organisation will be providing 324 mt. of grain, and 8,775 litres of oil to malnourished children and drought-affected adults over the course of 2003 through DANIDA backing, and has also distributed 614 litres of oil, and 18 mt. of supplementary food to schools. SC-D is also focusing on awareness raising on childcare issues, employment growth schemes and income generating schemes in the woreda.
A nutrition survey carried out by SC UK indicated that malnutrition rates in West Belessa woreda of North Gonder Zone had reached critical levels in July 2002. A post harvest assessment undertaken by the DPPC indicates that 43,005 people will be in need of food aid between March and September of this year. SC-N will be providing $540,000 worth of emergency relief through Norwegian government funding. Since June 2002 the organisation has also been involved in Dabat woreda in the same Zone, and will continue to provide a food security response to the tune of $459,770 until December 2003. Finally, SC-N, in collaboration with Norwegian Church Aid, has planned to erect 30 relief food centres in drought-prone areas of the country as part of capacity building efforts by the DPPC.
In North and South Wollo, from January – March 2003, SC-UK delivered 2,432 mt. of EU backed grain. The organisation, meanwhile, plans to deliver 416 mt. and 276 mt. of USAID/JEOP funded food in these Zones until May 2003. The organisation is currently trying to obtain more funding to support future projects in these Zones. In addition to providing relief, SC-UK is running a three-year USAID-funded programme that is designed to link relief to development in innovative ways by adding additional support to food relief to help farmers become self-sufficient. Finally, the organisation is providing cash for relief to 52,300 people in select communities.
As part of a separate USAID grant, SC-UK’s Relief to Development Programme in Wag Hamra and North Wollo will be providing 57,720 mt. of cereal to 137,000 in Sekota and Gubalafto over three years. As part of this, the organisation plans to deliver 19,240 mt. in 2003.
Save the Children - UK