(Login artuncemcem) Derin Meclis Posted Nov 22, 2001 11:53 AM
I think the recent discussions seem to become more personal or reflection of past problem onto the subject of matter at hand. Nevertheless, I will give my version of story because the subject is related to not only my personal interest but also my academic one (I have been working on poverty, how to measure it and its consequences along with child labor, especially in TC).
First of all, if you did not make generalization without some research and posted your last text at first place, you would not get as much as reaction you got at first place. You constantly revise your comments so it is difficult for me to take one as base of discussion. The ideas in my last post (which timucin seems to agree on most of them) and the article you post above as reaction do not seem to contradict to each other but i have some reservation about it.
First of all, let's clear some confusion.
I thought, we have been discussing whether latest economic crises in TC will eventually lead an social rebellion, so end of TC as we know (it is your hypothesis). Then, the question whether turkish people have experience sudden poverty due to the crises or it has been that way but the latest crises worsen the already bad injustice in wealth distribution. Finally, the trade and idea relations.
1. I (or I think timucin) never claim that there is no social unrest or (everybody happy) related to crises. It is a classical sociological example (fact) that economical crises (or war-like situation) cause many social and psychological problems in a given society. Emile Durkheim ("the rules of sociological method") clearly showed that the economic situation and its relation to suicide rates in 1900s. Following the study, hundreds of study have been conducted on poverty and its effects on social variables (e.g., family functions, crime, IQ development, birth rate, suicide, etc) (if you are interested in this subject i can provide you the sources). So, it is not big surprise what has been happening in TC. But, the question still remain unchallenged whether these social or psychological depression, explosions will eventually lead social rebellion or revaluation. (I will wait your research result before giving my answer with its reasons but the short answer is NO).
The above article even missed many other public depression examples (e.g., a 18 year street vendor hang himself in front of turkish parliament, the early farmer/small business demonstration, never ending individual demonstration in front of prime minister office, everybody throwing something to the old leader!!, etc.)
I do support the main idea behind the above article but it does not mean it reflects full truth. I do support it because this kind of reactions is necessary to get attention of government to "real issues". Somebody has to be voice of poor people.
For example, I do not have problem establishing 850 million as the poverty line, which reflect the ideal one but still do not reflect turkish reality.
There is endless debate about how to measure poverty. The union leaders take easy one by importing the west standard in turkish one (e.g., they have list of items and their prices on city-major market). But, the poverty line is equivalent to about 600$$ and the poverty line in USA is about 900$!!! Can you see the irony?
This kind of poverty calculation does not take consideration many factors. For example, people buy many of their daily product from street, public market (pazar), many receive food supply from their villages, some of them do not pay electricity bill, many sit in government own land (gecekondu), the government provide cheap rental, some of them have 2 jobs, many (especially children and women) works illegally (so does not appear on family budget).... etc. I do not claim or discuss that at least 25-30% people have been going through hardship or the life is easy to many even though the current crises. I think, the people of TC deserve better after the enduring poverty (70 years). But, it has not reach the level that ordinary people will turn against state and take their faith on their own hand (I do not have problem with this!) because as sociology explain every society form kind of "balance" on different point as reaction to social or economical realities of the society.
2. Sudden poverty
We should have kind of time frame to make such comparison. If we consider the condition of TC before 1980, where the per capita was around 1000$ with total GNP around $20 Billion. The recent numbers after crises is the per capita is around 2500$ with $200 billion. But just, one year ago (1999), the per capita was abound 3000$ with $250B GNP. So, compare to 1980, there has been rapid growth and turks are better even after the crises but compare to one year ago there are about 20% poorer. Sure, if we compare to EU standard, we have been poor all the way.
The serious economical crises are not a new thing for turkish people. I can give you at least 10 such example. The latest one was in 1994 with 60 percent devaluation (and similar reaction such as suicide, hunger strike, etc.). But, what makes the latest crises is the worst one: First of the social structure has changed very dramatically in last 15 year. About %70 percent of people used to live in rural area before to 1980 but the figure changed upside down, about % 70 live in "cities" in 2000 (most of them in ghetto like places, "gecekondu"). So, in past, the state economical station had very little effect on ordinary people because they were "self-sufficient" . But, after the crises, million and million people are unemployed in cities with little qualification and large families to take care... They are "left" by their not optimistic faith! Second one, the domestic and foreign debts has reached such a level that the government had nowhere to go but follow the infamous IMF remedies (so they cannot just bail out as they did in past)...
About income distribution.
For me, it is kind of irony that I have been discussing that we (TC) do (did) not have strong economy (due to the distribution) one year ago at different form with a nationalist fellow but I have been trying to show that it is not the end and many problem caught the elite attention is not new problems (just appeared after after the crises) today.!!!
I have a doctorate thesis of one of the DPT fellow, according to data collected during 1996-1997, 62% of turkish people considered as poor, under poverty with similar standard used in above article (%15 is very poor, %23 of them just around the poverty line and %9 of them has possible candidate) (Erdogan, 1997). SO, there is not huge gap!!
As you express, the government did not put freeze on salary. They have been adjusting the income level with inflation rate and the minimum income committee just had meeting to increase the minimum income. However, the reflection of inflation increase on salary is not prompt one and therefore, there is %20 "real" decreases in income level in current time being.....
3. About trade-info flow:
If you read my post carefully, you will see that my point was "trade is no more the only way to distribute ideas or knowledge across societies as it was case before. So, we still need trade.
Also, when I talk about global technology i was not just mean internet or computer but TVs, newspaper, cellphone, tourism, etc. BYT as I explained earlier, the "social balance" has been taking in TC related to internet. Yes, people might not have money to buy computer but compare to west, there are so many internet cafes with very cheap rate in every cities of TC (like chine and India). So you do not have to have one to get in!! (There is more serious problem than money to reach internet such as language problem, etc.). (That is why i do not like "orientalists").
Also, you imply that the new ideas (or other info) will stop reaching TC due to lack of import!! But, Turkish people have been overwhelmed by the economic discussion, analysis on TV. They have been watching the indicators of social depression (e.g., attempts of suicide, the empty kitchen, the poverty, and the bread line) as almost "reality show" every damm day. (About 90% of them have TVs and the broadcasts are free). Even, there is a real "reality show" in which the participants try to survive with minimum wage!!!! So, there is no lack of information or new ideas! Oh, I forget newspaper, radio, etc.....
Peace, artun