After a lot of work, the true rankings have been entirely rebuilt to fix a mathematical error in my original construction.

http://www.dragonboat-truerank.blogspot.com/

Given the methodology, this is how the true rankings should have originally looked. There are some significant changes. Unfortunately no updates have been possible over this period of construction.

NEW!!! I have also included a split out of the races currently used in the true rankings. This will help teams better understand what their times reflect (though I'm sure this will also brew some controversy and possibly shed light on any weaknesses of the system).

I would really be interested in feedback from teams either here or at truerankings@hotmail.com. For example:

1) Best performance for CDN Senior DB team in Sudbury?
2) Imps fast in TO?
3) SCC Chiropractic fastest on home turf but weak performance in Ottawa?
4) X-Paddling not up to speed yet in Lachine?
5) Dragonslayers slow in Pickering?
6) Hammerheads really brought it in TO?
7) Big fish fast in Welland but slow in Sudbury?
8) Verdun Adrenaline and Express really know how to put together a 200m?

To come:

1) US teams that competed in two Canadian festivals will be put back in the rankings (I think DCH is back in already but MAD and NYWallsteet will be added). This is in the spirit that international teams need to establish that they intend to race in Canada before being added.

2) NACCC Welland and Woodstock (thanks to Q) are very close.

3) GWN and Quebec to be added.

I think that Big Fish raced all the 500's in Sudbury in lane one. By far the slowest lane. Not sure if it fully accounts for differencials though. Fish also raced 2 of 3 Island races out of lane one.

how about mowat

I think alot of crews had difficulty throughout the year, not just Big Fish.

If a slower time for a given festival is reflective of a combination of lanes that happens to be slower then that's ok, there's not much I can do about it. It's likely that this should only be significant for a handful of teams. Some festivals times may be a little slow and for others a little fast. Hopefully the more teams race, the clearer the picture of their true potential.

Keep in mind too that teams only remember when they get the slow lanes and often don't take note when they get fast lanes. You might want to just look at teams fastest festivals to get an idea of ultimate potential.

Number 7 on the list is explained, anyone else?

"how about mowat"? Can you be more specific?

For (2) it may be that the 10/10 rule is favorable for the Imps

No doubts you are correct in saying that many teams had tough years or bad breaks or whatever, but he asked about several specific teams at certain races and I just happen to have heard something in reference to one of them so bite me.

As for the IMPS at the Island. Yes, 10/10 heavily favored their Womens national team stacked butts.

These rankings are not bad but still imperfect with some teams ranked above others eventhough the lower ranked team beat the higher ranked team all season long. On a positive note this is the best rankings system yet devised on this forum.

Even though my team moved down, I won't hold it against you.

I especially like the new spread section.

Are you planning on adding GWN results? I expect them to be a little tricky to encorporate.

Also,

Would smaller events like London, Stratford and the upcoming Brampton race be included as well?

Thanks again PD, you rock. Looking forward to GWN results and the ensuing debate through the off-season.

My team moved down as well but I do think a few things look better.

I agree that the rankings are not perfect and my gut says that teams true times are likely within a 1 second +/- window or so. I would love some feedback from observer as to which teams consistently beat others throughout the season and got slower times. It may help me find any further hicups.

It should be noted that since each race counts it is quite possible that the above observation could be true. A team could lose to another team in one heat but pull a faster time in the next to compensate.

London, Stratford, and Brampton will be tested for statistical viability and added if possible. Festivals should have at least 10 established teams racing to be considered.

Cheers, Power D

The true rankings have been updated to reflect Welland NACCC.

In addition, NY Wallstreet Dragons, DCH, and MAD have been added back into the rankings.

Just a thought: Should there be separate rankings for 250m and 500m races?

PD - good job!

Have you studied the contribution of 250m (or 200m) relative to 500m? I have a feeling the shorter distance races have more dense clustering and should perhaps be factored out.

New rankings look better. Noticed in old rankings we (Trout) were same as Senior nationals even though they beat us 2 out of 2 in Sudbury.
Just a point , I assume you are looking for each teams speed WHEN THEY ARE NOT SLOWED DOWN by slow lanes or head wind (Welland), or speeded up by tail winds. i.e. deep water , no wind or currents?

The break down by race was a great idea. Kind of interesting to see how some teams may progress or remain consistent throughout the season.

I think you have missed a team in your rankings.

MOFO's are there ...... I think 30 or 31

MoFo's at 30 - 31!!! SHOULD BE TOP TEN.

Hey, that's actually a great compliment but I'm sure everyone will agree it's deserved for now. Seriously there are some excellent teams out there.

Anyone that hopes to crack top 10 in the True Rankings will have to do battle with some incredible teams from all of Eastern Canada and United States. Given that we only practice less than 1.5 times a week on average over the summer and are usually late in the game starting up training, we've got a long way to go! To be where we are on the rankings is already quite the honour. In any case, it gives us something to strive towards and who knows, maybe it'll happen one day.

Now if you were talking about top 10 most notorious, that's another thread altogether

> Hey, that's actually a great compliment but I'm sure everyone will agree
> it's deserved for now. Seriously there are some excellent teams out there.

Clumsy fingers. Occupational hazard of flexing too much.
The above should read "I'm sure everyone will agree it's not deserved for now.

Modesty? From a Mofo?
What happened, did you skip your protein shake today?
All is well in the Universe.

Love the Mofos comment. I guess being top ten in a festival doesn't translate into top 10 overall

The truerankings do their best to factor out weather conditions, boat speeds, etc. for festivals. It can't however factor out lane advantages. Since all races are included however, hopefully lane advantages will wash out (particularly true for those who race a lot).

It would not be possible to do a separate ranking for festivals with non 500m races. This is due to small sample size. However, if these races are adjusted to 500m, then they can be included (as is currently done). I personally like the fact that the rankings reflect some different distances because this is more reflective of an average festival. If a team is good at endurance, then for a 2000m they will likely improve their rankings slightly. If a team is good at powering it up, then for a 200m they will likely improve their rankings slightly. Fair enough.

It should be noted however that most teams that are good at 200m or 2000m are equally good at 500m. Only a select few teams like the Verdun crowd seem to possibly get a bit of an edge of sprinting and I think Eat Trout was better at the distance, can't remember.

Power D

You've got DCH Premier Mixed and DCH Exp at 20 and 24, might these be the same crew?

Yes I believe they are. The posting was very last minute so I didn't get a change to really look it over. I'll fix that next posting.

I will also likely filter out teams that are predominantly comprised of paddlers from other mixed crews. For example, Cascade Twist and Shout stays while the Cascade Grand Dragons, and Grand Masters Cascades Masters get dropped.

I'll do my best to judge what is appropriate but if anyone feels that one of these teams should be included feel free to email the rankings truerankings@hotmail.com.