Let’s do two theories this time, together.  They are Weasley theories.  If you haven’t voted before, don’t let that stop you now.  As usual, please add anything that you think I have missed. 

Theory VII

 Will Arthur Weasley become Minister of Magic?

 It has been clearly stated throughout the books that Cornelius Fudge was not the first choice for Minister, Dumbledore was.  Fudge got the job after Dumbledore refused it. Fudge has relied on Dumbledore for help up until the end of book four.  Fudge, was afraid of what would happen when he had to announce that Voldemort is back.  Now the secret is out and Fudge’s administration is in question. 

We don’t know how people become Minister but Fudge may well be on his way out.  Arthur may be the one to fill the role.  In OOTP Ron says…” we have as much chance of winning the Quidditch cup as my father has of becoming Minister of Magic.”  Later, Gryffindor wins the cup.  

Vote on the probability that Arthur Weasley will become Minister of Magic in the next two books. If you believe that someone else is more likely to become Minister of Magic, indicate who, and again, the probability that they will get the job. 

 

Theory VIII

Percy Weasley, Where Does He Stand? 

Percy has always been a little power hungry.  He has earned good enough grades to get a job at the Ministry which was his dream.  Percy appears to have given up on his family and feels superior to them.  He sent a letter to Ron in OOTP congratulating him on making Prefect (following in his -Percy's-steps) and recommending that Ron avoid Harry.  The letter also talked about Umbridge coming to Hogwarts and Dumbledores shaky position 

1. There is an interesting theory that Percy could be ‘undercover’ for the Order.  That he is merely acting the part of a total git but is really reporting to the Order.  His fight with his father and his other actions would just be a cover. The letter to Ron would then have been a set of hints as to what was about to happen. Dumbledore kicked out, Umbridge in charge and dangerous.
2. The more obvious position is that Percy is overly ambitious and can’t see that he is being manipulated to the detriment of his family and the Order. Percy received promotions that don’t match his level of experience.  People high up in the Ministry may believe they can get information out of Percy about his father’s actions and those of other Order members.
3. A third idea is that Percy is so power hungry that he might go over to Voldemort to advance himself.  Voldemort could use someone in the Ministry who can be bought with a promise of power.  In this scenario Percy would have actually turned evil and would sell out his family on purpose for personal gain. 

Now that Voldemort has been revealed, Percy’s position will be interesting to watch.  Will he apologize to his parents for his lack of judgement, will he continue to support the Ministry 'party line' because he thinks he has real power, or will he go over to the 'dark' side to get real power. 

Please indicate your view of Percy’s real motives.  Indicate the probability that:

 

1.               Percy is working undercover for the Order – his arrogance is all an act. 

 2.             Percy is a pawn who is unaware of how he is being manipulated. He will keep supporting the administration even if they are wrong.

3.        Percy is power hungry and has or will betray his family to get ahead even if it means going over to Voldemort.

4.                  Something I haven’t mentioned ??????????

 

 

 

 

Theory VII:
I really hope that Mr. Weasly wil become Minister! So I will be optomistic and say he has a 90%!

Theory VIII:
Percy working undercover for the Order: 0%!
Percy is a pawn: 25%
Percy is power hungry and will do anything to advance (even through Voldemort): 25%


While I agree that Percy is very ambitious and eager for a position of power, I do not think he would go (willingly) to Voldemort's side to gain that power. Perhaps Percy could have been placed under an Imperius along (or some other curse) with Mr Crouch. Hell, Mr. Crouch could have placed a curse on Percy. Percy was with Mr.Crouch enough to have stumbled upon the truth about Crouch Jr. Mr. Crouch was willing to imprison his son AND later place the Imperius curse on him. What would be stopping him from doing it to Weatherby, I mean Weasly! Not only that, but if it were to be Voldemort who cursed Percy, Wormtail might have stopped him from trying to kill him instead because as Percy's former pet Wormtail knows things about the Weasly's since he lived with them for 12-13 yrs. Maybe they are using Percy for inside info on the entire Weasly clan. So, to answer the question, 50% chance that it is something else! Sorry I got a little long winded there!!

I was re-reading GoF and I found this- if someone else has brought it up before, ignore me.

p 567 US version-
George says:"You're starting to sound like our dear older brother, you are, Ron. Carry on like this and you'll be made a prefect."

One of JKR's clues? I remembered this when I read this post. She likes to put things in like that, that end up coming out. Sort of like a precedent.

Anyway, I'll just vote on Arthur being MoM- I'll say 75%

Arthur being Minister: 100%

Percy working for the Order: 0%
Percy as a pawn %70
Percy being power hungry and all that good stuff 30%

*Helen is the Goddess of Wisdom*

1/3 Elder of Bowden Family Tree
Twin to Moriah

Well I don't think that Mr. Weasly will become MoM, but I don't think Fudge wil be it for long, maybe another order memember or someone we havn't met yet so its probably about a 30% chance.
I think Percy was being used by the Minister of Magic in OOTP, but is not now since Fudge beileves Voldemort is back so 95% chance he was being used and 5% chance he is still being used

Auther being mom:100%
Percy undercover:0%
Percy pawn:90%
percy working for voldemort:100%

Arthur will become MoM - 85%

I don't know who else it would be, though.

1. Percy working undercover for the Order - 0%
2. Percy being used as a pawn - 75%
3. Percy will work for Voldemort - 25%

____________________________________________

"I hope that after I die, people will say of me: 'That guy sure owed me a lot of money.'" --Jack Handey

VII:
I think it would be nice if Arthur became MoM, but JKR doesn't do "nice" anymore. I saw a hint in one of the books that Molly might be it though. Unfortunately, I really see Lucious getting the popular vote and that, of course, would really stir things up until the end of book 7 when everything will be put in its proper place.

Arthur becoming MoM: 42.1%
Molly becoming MoM (in book 7): 78.9%
Lucious becoming MoM (in book 6): 83.5%

VIII:
I think that in book 6, Percy might go with Fudge to work more closely with Voldy. Fudge will convince Percy that Voldy really has everyone's best interests at heart and will join him. Then, during some battle, Percy will get killed and Ron will get so mad that he joins Voldy's side and fights against Harry and Hermione. But at some point, Harry or Hermione do something that changes Ron's mind and he rejoins them and together they destroy Voldy.

1. Percy is working undercover for the Order: 5%
2. Percy is a pawn who is unaware of how he is being manipulated: 80%
3. Percy is power hungry and has or will betray his family to get ahead even if it means going over to Voldemort.: 60%
4. Percy is power hungry AND a pawn that will do whatever his superior says, even if it means betraying his family and going to Voldy: 99%




Dad-Eye,

Arthur becoming MoM: 99.9%

I dont remember who but someone in the books said that Arthur is good enough to have a really high spot in the ministry but his love for muggles is holding him back. I really think that Arthur will become MoM.
Also:

Fudge staying MoM: 0.00000% chance- not gonna happen

1. Percy-0%- Percy isn't smart enough to do that

2. Percy-5% -maybe..

3. Percy-95%-I definately think this one, although I think that when Voldie wants him to turn in his family he will really get whats truely important and he will tell Voldie no and Voldie will kill him. Thats definately the way I want him to die (Yes, I am sure he is gonna die)

~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~
*"You two," Umbridge says, gazing down at Fred and George, "are about to learn what happens to wrongdoers at my school."
"You know what?" said Fred. "I don't think we are."
He turned to his twin.
"George," said Fred, "I think we've outgrown full-time education."
"Yeah, I've been feeling that way myself," said George lighty.
"Time to test our talents in the real world, d'you reckon?" asked Fred.
"Definitely," said George.
And before Umbridge could say a word, they raised their wands and and said together, "Accio Brooms!"
"We won't be seeing you," Fred told Professor Umbridge, swinging his leg over the broom.
"Yeah, don't bother keeping in touch," said George, mounting his own.
"STOP THEM!" shrieked Umbridge, but it was too late.As the Inquisitorial Squad closed in, Fred and George kicked off from the ground and shot fifteen feet in the air. Fred looked across the hall at the poltergeist bobbing on his level above the crowd.
"Give her hell from us, Peeves."
And Peeves, whom Harry had never seen take an order from a student before, swept his belled hat from his head and sprang to a salute as Fred and George wheeled about to tumultous applause from the students below and sped out of the open front door into the glorius sunset.*

I am 89% sure that Arthur Weasley will become minister of magic.

 

5% possibility that he is undercover, the again this is JKR, she likes to throw things like that at us.

35% that he is being manipulated

35% that he is power hungry, and will do whatever can to gain power

15% I have this idea that he has been sortof brainwashed, if someone tells you over and over again that something is wrong, you will start to believe it. So if he gets told that Dumbledore is wrong enough, he will believe it. Now where this differs from choice number two, is that I think Percy will do something really bad, realize it, and switch sides half way through.

   

Arthur MoM: 90%

Percy is undercover: 10% (I dont think so, but heck, you never know)
Percy is a pawn: 80%
Percy is EVIL: 10%

D.B.N.G.T.M.
Sirius i luv you
Bellatrix DEAD!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"They run off eckeltricity, do they?" said
Mr. Weasley knowledgeably. "Ah yes, I can
see the plugs. I collect plugs," he added to
Uncle Vernon."And batteries. Got a very
large collection of batteries. My wife
thinks I'm mad, but there you are."
-GoF-
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Quotes:

"It is our choices that make us who we are. Not our abilities."- Albus Dumbledore

"There is no excuse for looking down on someone, unless you're helping them up."- Rev. Jesse Jackson

“Whatever you are looking for is in you (the rest is still in the fridge)” Comix

"Just remember: If the world didn't suck, we'd all fall off." Jewels of Wisdom

I highly doubt that Arthur would want the position, he has avoided promotion for a while now, so i am gonna stick with fudge as minister until Voldie is defeated.

Arthur Minister 0%

Percy: Doesn't want to betray his family, but will, and when he realized he has, he will try and correct it, thus the ending of his life.

I see a little silhouetto of a man
Scaramouch, scaramouch will you do the fandango
Thunderbolt and lightning - very very frightening me
Gallileo, Gallileo,
Gallileo, Gallileo,
Gallileo Figaro - magnifico
-Queen

Hmmm...

Okay, Arthur as MoM - 70%

 

Percy working undercover for Order - 10%

Percy being manipulated - 75%

Percy will go all dark on us for power - 15%

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Arthur becomes minister:80%

 

Undercover Percy:5%

Manipulated Percy:25%

Evil Percy: 70%

 

 

Aurther becoming MINISTER OF MAGIC (mom??? What, did he turn into a woman or something? It just looks strange. lol) may happen, but if it does, I have a suspicious feeling that it won't last very long before he is killed off. I think that declining the position would be saving his life.

As for Percy, he although is seems to gravitate towards power, is highly arrogant, and is easily manipulated and brainwashed, I think that he still wouldn't go for working with the forces of evil (aka Voldey). I think that if he does at first, he will back out after he realizes what he has done (didn't someone already say this?) and then Voldey will track him down and kill him, even if he has to travel to Azkaban to do it, because he probably would be jailed for going over, at least for a little time, unless he offers information as some sort of a plea bargin, which is a very high possibility. Well, in any event, what ever happens, happens.

I keep forgetting to post my 'vote' during the process.  Here it is:

Arthur for MoM, 100% - I think Arthur is a stronger, tougher character than he appears on the surface.

Percy undercover - 5% - just because it would be an interesting plot twist.

Percy manipulated - 50% - I think he is following the crowd at the Ministry and doesn't see how pathetic he really is.

Percy goes really bad - 45% - If he does, I think he will  quickly try to back out, setting up the Regulus Black situation .  V will try to have him killed (can his family or the Order protect him?)      OR         Percy gets caught, setting up the Barty Crouch Jr. situation where Arthur (as the new MoM) has to send his son to Azkaban, as B. Crouch Sr. had to.

Theory VII:

Arthur becoming minister in the next two books OR EPILOGUE: 75%

Theory VIII:

1. Percy is working undercover for the Order – his arrogance is all an act. 0%

2. Percy is a pawn who is unaware of how he is being manipulated. He will keep supporting the administration even if they are wrong. 45%

3. Percy is power hungry and has or will betray his family to get ahead even if it means going over to Voldemort. 45%

4. Something I haven’t mentioned ?????????? 10%

---

This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
It hurts to set you free
But you'll never follow me

The end of laughter and soft lies
The end of nights we tried to die
This is the end

- The Doors - The End

RIP Jim Morrison

How ironic. I don't believe Arthur will become minister but for the hell of it i think i will make him minister in my fan fic.  This thread got me thinking....i know, i lost alot of brain cells...

"Make way for the Heir of Slytherin, seriously evil wizard coming through. . ."-Fred and George(CoS)

Maybe him or maybe Diggory
I would say 10% each

I think Percy is not likely to work for the Order 0.01%, I think he's really a git 90%. He could be on Voldy side or will go to it. 3%
There is another possibility, Percy could be possessed by Voldi later 7% but not now because Voldy would have want him to work for the order.

Anyone else before I score this?

Yes, I also suggest that:

1.) Percy is probably going to meet an un-expected fate, early next year, probability of about 50%.

2.) The real Arthur Weasley, lives somewhere in America.

3.) And the new Minister of Magical hockey is Peter Hockey(living in Canada of course).

"Make way for the Heir of Slytherin, seriously evil wizard coming through. . ."-Fred and George(CoS)