Resending The End of an Era -
The End of an Era & its Ramifications on the Middle East
Sadly, I did not come until this very moment across any comprehensive analysis of the ramifications of the current dramatic unfolding of international political, financial and military events on the Middle East; this, despite the fact that the Middle East is directly implicated in all those events.
Triggered this thought the publication of a recent report in the respected French weekly Le Canard Enchaîné, of a French diplomat, François Fitou, the French Deputy Ambassador in Kabul, quoting the British Ambassador to Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, declaring that the "Allies' Mission in Afghanistan is Doomed." Same, very sadly, appears also to be the case in Iraq despite all the icing on the cake.
Combined with the financial chaos rocking the American and Western economies in the near total absence of regulatory systems, the converging "Global Village" world would be living in a state of unprecedented political, security and economic chaos and uncertainty for some time to come.
Should Taliban prevail, then Pakistan could become the next candidate for a protracted war of insurgency and possible potential dominance of Muslim fanatics. The fallout of the Iraq potential Pandora's Box remains every body's guess.
As the US and the West to certain extent lose some of their financial and economic leverage and lose face in the two major wars currently being waged in the world - all in the near East, in Muslim lands - the hibernating extremists and rejectionist forces in the Middle East, fragmented and disorganized, could become emboldened and dig their heels resisting compromise in the attendance of what fast changing times could still come up with.
The Syria-Iran Axis could see emboldened initiatives, especially in Lebanon, that could undermine the age long traditional tribal cohabitation formula of the country. In Palestine, and as the term of the President of the PA would come to an end in three months times with no progress on a peaceful settlement to show, a combined mix of chaos and potential internecine conflicts could ensue as the Israelis are most probably would be electing Likud to power in the coming few months.
Egypt, the most populous Arab country, is facing huge social and economic problems that upon the eclipse of its leader on the expiry of his term, "Après Moi Le Deluge" would, sadly, seem the more befitting expression as to what could follow next.
The US' hands will be tied up addressing humongous domestic problems for decades to come which would prevent it from playing the police of the world and embarking on pre-emptive initiatives all over the globe. Russia and Iran will play to the same tune in trying to strongly position themselves in the Middle East and their influence would only increase by the day in a chaotic region that will only get more chaotic.
That could be a bleak assessment of a pessimist who best should have remained committed to the closet of oblivion instead of volunteering a possibly uninvited opinion.
Rajai Masri
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