Caucasus Report
Is A Formal Karabakh Peace Agreement Within Reach?
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian (right) greets OSCE Minsk Group co-Chairman Matthew Bryza in Yerevan.
July 08, 2009
The French, Russian, and U.S. co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group arrived in Yerevan on July 8 for new talks on resolving the Karabakh conflict. It is their fourth visit to the region this year, and could pave the way for a further meeting later this month between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, who met in late January in Switzerland, in early May in Prague, and in early June in St. Petersburg.
Whether and to what extent the prospects for signing at least a preliminary accord on resolving the conflict have improved in recent months remains unclear, however.
Speaking on July 4 on Russia's Vesti TV channel, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev implied that the crucial issue of the future status of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic could remain undecided for decades.
"As regards the question of Nagorno-Karabakh's status, a mechanism for a provisional status could be agreed in the first stage [of the peace process], while the issue of the final status will be solved only when the parties agree on that," Aliyev said. "This could happen in one year, in 10 years, in 100 years, or this could never happen. Time will tell."
Aliyev also insisted that the final status will fall short of independence. "We naturally don't see a possibility of Nagorno-Karabakh's existence as an independent state," he said. "Azerbaijan will never agree to that, and we think that the Armenian side understands this. At the same time, the Armenian side reckons that the level of self-rule that exists in Nagorno-Karabakh must be maintained."
The so-called Madrid Principles for resolving the conflict that the Minsk Group co-chairs presented to the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in November 2007 are believed to make provision for "a referendum or popular vote" at some unspecified future date on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's constitution, however, does not permit a referendum on the territorial-administrative structure of the country.
The decision on Nagorno-Karabakh's future permanent legal status would, moreover, be made only after the consequences of the conflict have been addressed, meaning, after Armenian forces withdraw from seven districts of Azerbaijan contiguous to Nagorno-Karabakh that they occupied between 1991 and 1994.
Aliyev said on July 4 that five of the seven districts would be liberated at the first stage of implementing the peace agreement, while the Lachin Corridor and Kelbacar would revert to Azerbaijani control five years later.
The Madrid, or Basic Principles, however, take into consideration Armenia's insistence on an internationally guaranteed overland link between the Nagorno-Karabakh republic and the Republic of Armenia, and to that end envisage "special modalities" for the Lachin Corridor, which constitutes such a link, and for Kelbacar, which lies between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Specifically, the Basic Principles provide for the deployment of an international peacekeeping force and for "international and bilateral security guarantees and assurances."
Up till now, Armenia has been reluctant to withdraw unconditionally from Kelbacar. Former Armenian President Robert Kocharian's reluctance to consider such a withdrawal until shortly before the envisaged referendum on Karabakh's future status is believed to have been one of the main reasons why he and Aliyev failed to reach a formal peace agreement in 2006.
A further potential obstacle to a breakthrough is Azerbaijan's refusal to condone the return to the negotiating table of Karabakh representatives. The online daily zerkalo.az on July 8 quoted President Aliyev as telling visiting Armenian dignitaries on July 3 that the current format of peace talks is perfectly adequate, and that the inclusion of representatives of the Armenian and former Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno-Karabakh would disrupt it.
Nagorno-Karabakh republic President Bako Sahakian for his part told visiting OSCE Chairwoman in Office Dora Bakoyannis in Yerevan last week that it will remain impossible to reach a comprehensive solution to the conflict unless or until the Nagorno-Karabakh republic returns to the negotiating table as a full-fledged participant to the peace talks.
Despite those obstacles, the Minsk Group co-chairs remain cautiously optimistic. U.S. co-Chairman Matthew Bryza told Reuters late last month that the co-chairs hope that Aliyev and Sarkisian will "agree conceptually" on the broad outlines of the peace agreement when they meet in mid-July.
Bryza said the parties would then go line by line through the 3 1/2 pages of text to agree the fine details. "Once that happens, which we the co-chairs are shooting for by the end of the year, then we could say, it would be true, that a framework agreement has been reached," Bryza added.
-- Liz Fuller and Emil Danielyan
Posted At: 08 July 14:52 0 comments
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Armenian Opposition Vows To Continue Probe Of Postelection Violence
Relatives of a protester killed in the postelection violence lay flowers in his memory in Yerevan in April 2008
July 02, 2009
Levon Zurabian, who is a leading member of former President Levon Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National Congress (HAK), announced on June 25 that the HAK intends to form a committee that will continue to investigate the circumstances of the violent clashes in Yerevan on March 1-2, 2008, Noyan Tapan reported on June 29.
President Serzh Sarkisian last month dissolved the five-person independent group of experts he established last fall and tasked with assessing the findings of the ad hoc parliamentary commission set up under pressure from international human rights bodies to review the events that culminated in the Yerevan violence.
Ten people were killed during the night of March 1-2, when police and security forces clashed with Ter-Petrossian supporters protesting the apparent rigging of the February 19 presidential ballot. According to official returns, Sarkisian polled 52.8 percent of the vote and Ter-Petrossian 21.5 percent.
Under pressure from the Council of Europe, in June 2008, Sarkisian established an ad hoc parliamentary commission tasked with investigating the events that led to violence. That commission was originally supposed to present its findings by mid-October 2008, but that deadline was extended twice, first until mid-February 2009 and then until mid-September.
By February of this year, the commission had established that three of the deaths were caused by outdated tear-gas canisters fired into the crowd of protesters, but it was unable to identify which of four police officers armed with such canisters fired them, and on whose orders.
The five-person Fact-Finding Group of Experts was likewise established in response to pressure from the Council of Europe, with the aim of independently evaluating the findings of the ad hoc parliamentary commission.
But its very composition -- two of its members were selected by the ruling (then four-party) coalition, two by the opposition (the HAK and Zharangutiun, the only opposition party represented in the Armenian parliament), and its chairman by human rights ombudsman Armen Harutiunian -- proved an obstacle to its effectiveness.
In early May, the two pro-government members suspended their activity, Three weeks later, the group's chairman, Vahe Stepanian, stepped down in desperation, saying he could no longer guarantee cooperation between its members.
On May 27, Armen Martirosian, a senior member of the opposition Zharangutiun party, told journalists that his party would make public the group's findings to date if the group did not resume its probe. On June 8, Sarkisian abolished the group, citing its ineffectiveness.
But parliament deputy Naira Zohrabian, who represents Prosperous Armenia, one of the three remaining coalition parties, said on July 1 the group managed to compile 2,000 pages of documentation which has been handed over to the ad hoc parliamentary commission. She also said members of the ad hoc commission plan to meet with the police officers who fired the fatal tear-gas canisters.
As for the planned HAK investigation, it was not clear from Zurabian's June 25 comments whether the HAK and Zharangutiun will conduct a joint or separate probes.
Posted At: 02 July 15:12
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