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Over the past few seasons I have developed various prediction methods that cover almost every main European League.
Some of these systems/methods get quite complicated in the mathematics, while others can be quite simple, and what I have done up until now is to monitor which method works best for each specific league, and used that as my basis for sorting out which games to bet on.
Examples of some of the basic prediction methods are
1. Comparison of league positions
2. Comparison of form ratings
3. Neural Network historical Results
etc etc
In all I have 10 prediction methods
Over the past couple of weeks - especially that quiet period between Xmas and New Year - I looked into an additional system that takes the best results from each prediction method within each league.
So maybe for example, the comparison of the league position method is returning a good payback on the home results, but not so good on the draw or away results. Similarly the rating method might be returning good figures on the draws, ut not so good on the aways.
I believe that each league gets into a certain pattern over a period of time - for example it can easliy be seen that there is an aove average number of draws in the Italian and Spanish second leagues than in other leagues.
What I have now done is to take the best of each method for each league and come up with a set of results. So far (after only a couple of weeks) this system has achieved a small profit, but it is still early days just yet.
I am aware that by analysing a pattern of results that have already happened does not mean that these patterns will continue, so I am therefore urging caution if you decide to follow any of these predictions. The weather conditions could also be a factor to consider that could ruin this theory.
I am only going to post the predicted draw results here, but they are split into 2 groups, the first is from prediction methods that (would have) returned over 10% profit, and the second set that (would have ) returned 0-10% profit.
Top Draw Predictions
Aston_Villa v Tottenham
Newcastle v Manchester_C
Fulham v Middlesbrough
Margate v Northwich
Southport v Forest Green Rovers
Alloa v Queen_of_South
St.Mirren v Ross_County
R.Vallecano v Valladolid
Albacete v Zaragoza
Cordoba v Compostela
Leganes v Almeria
Xerez v Terrassa
Secondary Draws
Brighton v Portsmouth
Grimsby v Millwall
Wolverhampton v Wimbledon
Bournemouth v Macclesfield
Darlington v Kidderminster
Exeter v Carlisle
Leyton_O v Hull
Southend v Rochdale
Boavista v V.Setubal
V.Guimarães v U.Leiria
Note, there is no analysis involved in this, it is simply a list of games taken straight from my prediction method.
Vicenza - Roma X
I will take this since Vicenza has more draws than my grandma's wrinkle and Roma flat out sucks this season. A draw here and a 1 or max 2 goal defeat in the 2nd leg for Roma.
I'm very interested in the Draw prediction systems and especially in the exact score systems that can be applied in Leagues that have high draw percentage overall and high accurance of specific scores eg France division 2 had +16% of 1-1 draws last year!
Maybe we could cooperate about it if you like...just let me know..
another very interesting string, thanks Hobbit, will be interesting to compare your lists with the sort of list hbhoops has been doing with the level ball handicap and see which teams sit in both lists and see wht the strike rat is on those if any turn up in both?
Will watch with interest, thanks for taking the time to post all this.
Will follow this string with attention,because I like to bet on draws too.
What concerns certain patterns in European leagues ,we should know that if these patterns are obvious on a long term,then they are allrady contained in the odds.For example you get lower odds for draws in Spain or Italy than in the most European countries.
The bookies are very good prepared for these cases.
Think in todays soccer,where favourites have more and more problems to win matches,playing the draws is an interesting solution.
We'll see.
The results were quite good - and I really like the 4-4 draw that Margate managed after being behind 1-4 at half-time.
Top Draw Predictions
Aston_Villa v Tottenham - (0-1) LOST
Newcastle v Manchester_C (2-0) LOST
Fulham v Middlesbrough (1-0) LOST
Margate v Northwich (4-4) WON
Southport v Forest Green Rovers (2-2) WON
Alloa v Queen_of_South (3-3) WON
St.Mirren v Ross_County(1-0) LOST
R.Vallecano v Valladolid (0-1) LOST
Albacete v Zaragoza (0-0) WON
Cordoba v Compostela (0-0) WON
Leganes v Almeria (5-2) LOST
Xerez v Terrassa (2-2) WON
Secondary Draws
Brighton v Portsmouth (1-1) WON
Grimsby v Millwall (0-2) LOST
Wolverhampton v Wimbledon (1-1) WON
Bournemouth v Macclesfield (2-2) WON
Darlington v Kidderminster (2-1) LOST
Exeter v Carlisle (1-0) LOST
Leyton_O v Hull (2-0) LOST
Southend v Rochdale (1-0) LOST
Boavista v V.Setubal (1-0) LOST
V.Guimarães v U.Leiria (1-2) LOST
Results 9 wins, 13 losses
Returned 28.95 units on 22 games (132%)
Quick message for ZousTos - I have sent you an e-mail.
I decided against starting a new thread just yet. The explanation at the top of the thread can still be useful at this early stage - but feel free to add your selections.
Just for completeness I should add that the figures I mentioned above on the returns were from the actual bets I placed. If I had used the average odds then the returns would have been 28.14 units on the 22 games - so a profit of 28%.
Here are a few games from the midweek fixtures that come up as a draw prediction from my system with the average odds shown in brackets.
Top Picks
Clermont v Wasquehal (2.93)
Grenoble v Creteil (2.71)
Lorient v Metz (2.78)
Other Picks
Rochdale v Lincoln (3.25)
Southend v Oxford (3.21)
I should also mention that Lorient have not drawn in the past 8 games (which is relatively high for this division considering the number of draws) so could also be a useful team to chase for the draw.
Odds in the French second division are available at very good odds with scandicbookmakers for some strange reason (around 3.2) - so I have taken them, and it goes to show that you should be ale to shop around for odds higher than I have shown here.
Well it was a bit of a disaster with the 5 midweek games as they all lost.
Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Total 27 matches returned 28.14 units
I have started on this coming weekends system analysis and it looks like a list of 18 games, but I have not yet finished compiling all my data yet so it will probably be tomorrow before I post them onto the end of this thread
Here are the games that are showing up on my system this weekend. I have included the average odds also (as from Thurs)
Kettering v Southport Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Morecambe v Hereford Average Draw Odds = 3,22
Scarborough v Chester Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Hansa_Rostock v 1860_München Average Draw Odds = 3,18
Lecce v Siena Average Draw Odds = 2,68
Livorno v Sampdoria Average Draw Odds = 2,55
Venezia v Cagliari Average Draw Odds = 2,59
Freiburg v Aachen Average Draw Odds = 3,33
Rec_de_Huelva v R.Vallecano Average Draw Odds = 3,09
Almeria v Albacete Average Draw Odds = 2,68
Badajoz v Xerez Average Draw Odds = 2,8
Eibar v Leganes Average Draw Odds = 2,72
Getafe v Salamanca Average Draw Odds = 2,65
Numancia v Elche Average Draw Odds = 2,62
Oviedo v Cordoba Average Draw Odds = 2,62
Terrassa v Sporting Average Draw Odds = 2,75
Montrose v Elgin Average Draw Odds = 3,39
P.Ferreira v Sp.Braga Average Draw Odds = 3,25
Another poor showing with this system I am sorry to say - but it is all part of the development process.
After the poor midweek results in the English 3rd division I took away these selections for the weekend games, as the system was showing a loss in this league. There were 4 games that would have been forecast for the weekend, and 3 of the ended as draws which now puts the system back into profit for this league. Overall though there would still have been a loss even if these games had been included.
The results are as follows.
Kettering v Southport Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Morecambe v Hereford Average Draw Odds = 3,22
Scarborough v Chester Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Hansa_Rostock v 1860_München Average Draw Odds = 3,18
Lecce v Siena Average Draw Odds = 2,68 -WON
Livorno v Sampdoria Average Draw Odds = 2,55 - WON
Venezia v Cagliari Average Draw Odds = 2,59
Freiburg v Aachen Average Draw Odds = 3,33
Rec_de_Huelva v R.Vallecano Average Draw Odds = 3,09
Almeria v Albacete Average Draw Odds = 2,68 - WON
Badajoz v Xerez Average Draw Odds = 2,8
Eibar v Leganes Average Draw Odds = 2,72
Getafe v Salamanca Average Draw Odds = 2,65
Numancia v Elche Average Draw Odds = 2,62
Oviedo v Cordoba Average Draw Odds = 2,62
Terrassa v Sporting Average Draw Odds = 2,75 - WON
Montrose v Elgin Average Draw Odds = 3,39
P.Ferreira v Sp.Braga Average Draw Odds = 3,25
18 games played- 4 draws returned 10,66 units
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 10.66 units
Total 45 matches returned 38.80 units
(85% success = 15% loss)
I was a bit too quick with publishing the results above for Week 4 weekend, as I still had the game Freiburg v Aachen on my list which was played last night - and fortunately came in with a draw to reduce the losses
Freiburg v Aachen Average Draw Odds = 3,33 - WON
18 games played- 5 draws returned 13,99 units
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 13.99 units
Total 45 matches returned 42.13 units
(94% success = 6% loss)
Games that are forecast from the midweek selections are
Kidderminster v Oxford Average Draw Odds = 3,22
Middlesbrough v Aston_Villa Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Tottenham v Newcastle Average Draw Odds = 3,19
Creteil v Clermont Average Draw Odds = 2,76
St.Etienne v Gueugnon Average Draw Odds = 2,88
Valence v Laval Average Draw Odds = 2,85
Wasquehal v Amiens Average Draw Odds = 2,75
I have not double checked the results yet, but I think there was only 1 winner from the midweek list
Kidderminster v Oxford Average Draw Odds = 3,22
Middlesbrough v Aston_Villa Average Draw Odds = 3,21
Tottenham v Newcastle Average Draw Odds = 3,19
Creteil v Clermont Average Draw Odds = 2,76
St.Etienne v Gueugnon Average Draw Odds = 2,88
Valence v Laval Average Draw Odds = 2,85
Wasquehal v Amiens Average Draw Odds = 2,75 - WON
so another bad set of results. I have some ideas on the lack of success - but I need to do a bit more analysis just yet.
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 13.99 units
Week 5 midweek : 7 matches returned 2.75 units
Total 52 matches returned 44.88 units
I have not had chance to post the matches from this weekends games yet (I am not at my own computer which has all my systems/selections) - but I can remember there were 2 of the games from tonight (if they have not been postponed).
Here are the games that match the criteria this weekend.
Bolton v Birmingham at average odds of 3,15
Southampton v Manchester_U at average odds of 3,26
Aston_Villa v Blackburn at average odds of 3,2
Leicester v Crystal_P at average odds of 3,32
Bournemouth v Boston at average odds of 3,42
Istres v Beauvais at average odds of 2,81
Laval v Nancy at average odds of 3,03
Lübeck v Reutlingen at average odds of 3,21
Cosenza v Verona at average odds of 2,57
Siena v Triestina at average odds of 2,51
RKC_Waalwijk v Groningen at average odds of 3,49
De_Graafschap v Utrecht at average odds of 3,22
Marítimo v Nacional at average odds of 3,21
Ross_County v Alloa at average odds of 3,48
Cordoba v Getafe at average odds of 2,59
Elche v Las_Palmas at average odds of 2,61
Leganes v Terrassa at average odds of 2,61
Salamanca v Zaragoza at average odds of 2,62
Tenerife v R.Ferrol at average odds of 2,66
There were a couple of games from last night - but these are not included here.
Well another poor weekend of returns, and I am having a good look into finding reasons and areas for improvements. I can see from an exercise I carried out on using my system formula on all the english premier league matches from last season, and the result showed an overall loss (98% returns). I need to still do some further analysis yet, so I will continue for a bit longer on this test.
Here are the results from Week 5 weekend
Bolton v Birmingham at average odds of 3,15
Southampton v Manchester_U at average odds of 3,26
Aston_Villa v Blackburn at average odds of 3,2
Leicester v Crystal_P at average odds of 3,32
Bournemouth v Boston at average odds of 3,42
Istres v Beauvais at average odds of 2,81 - WON
Laval v Nancy at average odds of 3,03
Lübeck v Reutlingen at average odds of 3,21 - WON
Cosenza v Verona at average odds of 2,57
Siena v Triestina at average odds of 2,51
RKC_Waalwijk v Groningen at average odds of 3,49
De_Graafschap v Utrecht at average odds of 3,22 - post
Marítimo v Nacional at average odds of 3,21
Ross_County v Alloa at average odds of 3,48
Cordoba v Getafe at average odds of 2,59
Elche v Las_Palmas at average odds of 2,61
Leganes v Terrassa at average odds of 2,61 - WON
Salamanca v Zaragoza at average odds of 2,62
Tenerife v R.Ferrol at average odds of 2,66
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 13.99 units
Week 5 midweek : 7 matches returned 2.75 units
Week 5 Weekend : 18 matches returned 8.63 units
Total 70 matches returned 53.51 units
Games forecast for Week 6 midweek are
Farnborough v Hereford at average odds of 3,3
Nancy v Clermont at average odds of 2,83
but as has been mentioned on another thread, Farnborough have just lost their Coach/Manager/Owner Graham Westley who has jumped ship to Stevenage after the profit taking trip to Arsenal, along with 6 (1st team ?) players. Alledgedly.
Farnborough v Hereford at average odds of 3,3 - WON
Nancy v Clermont at average odds of 2,83
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 13.99 units
Week 5 midweek : 7 matches returned 2.75 units
Week 5 Weekend : 18 matches returned 8.63 units
Week 6 midweek : 2 matches returned 3.30 units
Total 72 matches returned 56.81 units
Games forecast for Week 6 Weekend gives a "shortlist of 42 games !
Blackburn V Southampton at average odds of 3,24
Charlton V Everton at average odds of 3,2
Fulham V Aston_Villa at average odds of 3,2
Newcastle V Arsenal at average odds of 3,19
West_Bromwich V Bolton at average odds of 3,18
Coventry V Burnley at average odds of 3,31
Ipswich V Sheffield_U at average odds of 3,24
Sheffield_W V Norwich at average odds of 3,19
Cambridge V Shrewsbury at average odds of 3,31
Carlisle V Kidderminster at average odds of 3,23
Macclesfield V Swansea at average odds of 3,27
Burton V Telford at average odds of 3,21
Margate V Leigh at average odds of 3,26
Southport V Gravesend at average odds of 3,34
Woking V Scarborough at average odds of 3,2
Clermont V Chateauroux at average odds of 2,78
Grenoble V Nancy at average odds of 2,97
Gueugnon V Valence at average odds of 2,78
1.FC_Köln V Aachen at average odds of 3,46
Freiburg V Ahlen at average odds of 3,63
Fuerth V Frankfurt at average odds of 3,13
Mannheim V Mainz at average odds of 3,14
Reutlingen V Braunschweig at average odds of 3,27
St.Pauli V Lübeck at average odds of 3,16
Genoa V Catania at average odds of 2,7
Venezia V Triestina at average odds of 2,55
Roda_JC V Vitesse at average odds of 3,37
RBC_Roosendaal V De_Graafschap at average odds of 3,25
Ajax V Feyenoord at average odds of 3,26
Groningen V Twente at average odds of 3,23
Utrecht V Excelsior at average odds of 3,59
P.Ferreira V Belenenses at average odds of 3,19
V.Setubal V Marítimo at average odds of 3,17
Inverness_C V Falkirk at average odds of 3,35
Queen_of_South V St.Johnstone at average odds of 3,4
St.Mirren V Alloa at average odds of 3,5
Morton V East_Fife at average odds of 3,37
Queen's_Park V Albion at average odds of 3,41
R.Ferrol V Las_Palmas at average odds of 2,61
Salamanca V Almeria at average odds of 2,65
Tenerife V Compostela at average odds of 2,79
Xerez V Elche at average odds of 2,66
Sorry about the delay but I am under severe work pressure right now.
Results from the weekend were a bit under (97% returned) so not as good as some of the other guys.
Blackburn V Southampton at average odds of 3,24
Charlton V Everton at average odds of 3,2
Fulham V Aston_Villa at average odds of 3,2
Newcastle V Arsenal at average odds of 3,19 - WON
West_Bromwich V Bolton at average odds of 3,18 - WON
Coventry V Burnley at average odds of 3,31
Ipswich V Sheffield_U at average odds of 3,24
Sheffield_W V Norwich at average odds of 3,19 - WON
Cambridge V Shrewsbury at average odds of 3,31
Carlisle V Kidderminster at average odds of 3,23 - WON
Macclesfield V Swansea at average odds of 3,27
Burton V Telford at average odds of 3,21
Margate V Leigh at average odds of 3,26
Southport V Gravesend at average odds of 3,34 - WON
Woking V Scarborough at average odds of 3,2
Clermont V Chateauroux at average odds of 2,78
Grenoble V Nancy at average odds of 2,97
Gueugnon V Valence at average odds of 2,78
1.FC_Köln V Aachen at average odds of 3,46 - WON
Freiburg V Ahlen at average odds of 3,63
Fuerth V Frankfurt at average odds of 3,13
Mannheim V Mainz at average odds of 3,14
Reutlingen V Braunschweig at average odds of 3,27 postponed
St.Pauli V Lübeck at average odds of 3,16
Genoa V Catania at average odds of 2,7
Venezia V Triestina at average odds of 2,55
Roda_JC V Vitesse at average odds of 3,37
RBC_Roosendaal V De_Graafschap at average odds of 3,25
Ajax V Feyenoord at average odds of 3,26 - WON
Groningen V Twente at average odds of 3,23 - WON
Utrecht V Excelsior at average odds of 3,59 - WON
P.Ferreira V Belenenses at average odds of 3,19
V.Setubal V Marítimo at average odds of 3,17
Inverness_C V Falkirk at average odds of 3,35
Queen_of_South V St.Johnstone at average odds of 3,4
St.Mirren V Alloa at average odds of 3,5 - WON
Morton V East_Fife at average odds of 3,37 - WON
Queen's_Park V Albion at average odds of 3,41 - WON
R.Ferrol V Las_Palmas at average odds of 2,61
Salamanca V Almeria at average odds of 2,65
Tenerife V Compostela at average odds of 2,79
Xerez V Elche at average odds of 2,66
Overall Progress Update
Week 3 Weekend : 22 matches returned 28.14 units
Week 4 Midweek : 5 matches returned 0 units
Week 4 Weekend : 18 matches returned 13.99 units
Week 5 midweek : 7 matches returned 2.75 units
Week 5 Weekend : 18 matches returned 8.63 units
Week 6 midweek : 2 matches returned 3.30 units
Week 6 Weekend : 41 matches returned 39.95 units
Total 113 matches returned 96.76 units
Matches for Week 7 Midweek are
Bournemouth v Swansea at ave odds 3.43
Darlington v Rochdale at ave odds 3.24
Margate v Hereford at ave odds 3.16
Due to work commitments I may have to give up some input to the forum, and I have not yet found out if I can get time for my Dutch predictions - but it looks like there are some good new people starting up some interesting systems/threads to keep everyone going.
