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After seeing a post on the Copa Libertadores last week, i thought this would be a good time to start this thread on footy in South America. I follow Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, aswell as the Copa Lib and after having a very successful week in the first round of games, this is a great opportunity for me to share my picks with the forum.
Mexico is already underway, as is the Copa Lib, with Brazil playing in regional cup competitions and my favourite Argentinain Clausura to start on the 16th of Feb and I also place my Argentina tips at bettingadvice.com.
The great thing about these leagues and competitions are the very high odds - with a bit of research and studying form, odds of upto 2.50-3.50 are some times dead certs and very profitable.
Anyway, i hope this can be a successful venture and would very much like the input of any of you guys interested in any of the games I do or do not cover from this part of the world.
Was going to post this yesterday until the forum decided to go down...
I followed this comp all last season and made very good returns. The main reason i feel for these ranging odds is that for European based bookies, their knowledge of this tournament and south america is pretty basic - and so bookies opinions on odds will differ.
As for the Copa Lib '02, William Hill would offer oddds of up to 3.00 and above for River Plate away wins against very poor Columbian or Mexican oposition. The main things to watch out for is match locations, as often in places like Chile (i think), the stadium can be several hundred feet above or below sea level and often give the home team, no matter how poor, a very strong advantage.
I dont see much value in the openeing group matches, only Brazilian teams Gremio @ 1.50 and Corinthians @ 1.40 caught my eye, perhaps a double is best here. The first of the big priced away wins i fancy is Brazilian Santos away @ 3.30 to Columbian América de Cali. Because of the limited information to come out of South America, often team news and other game aspects are mostly unknown. I made my profit by following the 'big' teams at home and in the odd away matches were 3.00+ is available.
The 'big' sides this year are: Olimpia (paraguay & holders) Santos (brazil), Gremio (brazil), Boca (argentina), River (argentina), Corinthians (brazil)Peñarol (uruaguay), Nacional (uruaguay).
Based on a Champions League style set-up, there are 4 teams each in 8 groups, all play each other home and away, then straight into knock-out. Group games are spread out over the next 2 months and finish in mid-april, with the final in June.
As far as im awear, all teams take this comp very seriously and certainly top argentinain clubs will rest sometimes whole 1st teams in league games when a Copa Lib game is a few days away. Looking forward to this comp and some nice annaual profit.
Just thought i'd mention: the best place for odds on South American matches are William Hlll and Bet365. Both offer all the leagues i follow and often one can be much higher than the other. I'm sure there's others, but these are the main ones i use + Laddies & Eurobet now and again for Argentina.
just thought I would add, I know some people don't like Betzone, but they do offer Peru and Chile where most other bookmakers don't, if anyone is interested in those leagues
Not the odds i had hoped for on this game, as it seems the bookies are getting wise to these easy away wins for the bigger sides in the Copa Lib and slashing the odds. I siaid to myself i wouldn't take anything below 3.00 for this game, but after looking at the stats, it still looks good - 4/4 so far...
In last years comp, Peruvian side Alianza Lima picked up just 1 point from a possible 18, so just one draw and 5 losses, scoring a grand total of 1 goal with 16 going past them. They finished 2nd in their national league with a record of 13-6-3 40/18, 4 points behind champs and fellow Copa Lib competitors Sporting Cristal (13-7-2 46/18).
However competing against just 12 teams in a small country like Peru can't be much of a challenge and so their results have shown in the Copa Lib. Plus when your competing in a league with teams like 'Deportivo Wanka', you cant really rate them at all!
Last years winners, Olimpia from Paraguay didnt have a spectacular start to the group stage in 2002, topping their group (3-2-1 8/5), but only by one point as the top three finished on 11, 10 and 9 points respectively. Another factor that impresses me about Olimpia is that they managed to lose only one of their 9 away league game, winning 5 and drawing 3 - the loss of 3-1 coming against 2nd placed 12 de Octubre, who also compete in this years Copa Lib.
The conclusion is that Olimpia are a half decent away side, but the fact that Lima were totally abismal in this Cup last time round makes me feel that the Paraguyans are more than capable of coming away with a result here. Bet365 are the only bookie that i use that actually offer the odds for this match, so i have to accept their 2.62 which is still a reasonable price, although i cant compare it with anywhere else... surprised to see Wills are not offering this one - perhaps it might appear later tonight.
So the bet is: Olimpia @ 2.62 with Bet365 - K.O. @ 00.10 GMT
Great thread. I always liked South american football, full of actions, and with plenty of goals on matches. I believe in Copa Libertadores, this competition always gives much more "cleaner" results than European Champions League. Last season I had good success on Copa Libertadores games, and I hope this season it will be the same! Since TOYOTA is main sponsor of Copa Libertadores Competition for many years, I have decided to try to make BIG money on these games from Copa Libertadores, BIG enough to buy a new Toyota jeep - the car I always liked most ! Sounds crazy, but, since there are many more Libertadores games to come, I believe in success. First week of Libertadores gave all OK scores. Let's hope it will be the same this week ! Regards - Dejan.
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Alianza Lima v Olimpia 2.35...3.00... 2.65
U.N.A.M. v Bolivar 1.33... 4.20... 7.00
Cobreloa v Gimnasia LP 1.92... 3.20... 3.35
Sporting Cristal v Paysandu 1.80... 3.25... 3.75
Can you tell me why are the odds for Olimpia and Paysandu very high?
The teams from peru play very bad every years (only Ciencienau are great home team)
Last year:
Alianza Lima 0-1-5 1:16!!!!!!!!(home draw with Cerro Porteno)
Sporting Cristal 0-0-6 5:14!!!!!!!
Maybe they bought some new players?
My picks:
Alianza Lima v Olimpia 2
Sporting Cristal v Paysandu (x)2
What do you think abot it?
Any news ?
_______________________________________________________
I'll go for Olimpia win too.
What abot U.N.A.M. (Pumas) @ 1.3???????????????
Paysandu is a very weak team with no international experience. When playing at home, Paysandu (from Belem, northern part of Brazil) can get some points due to the extremely hot and humid weather.
As their first international appearance in years, I do not believe they can have any success.
Nice to see their is an interest in these mathes from other forum members. I tend not bet on every game and Olimpia was my best pick from the four matches, but if there is an interest in the other matches i am happy to help.
U.N.A.M. v Bolivar
Bolivar from Bolivia finished 3rd in a reasonably poor group in last years Copa with a record of 2-2-2 11/13 - their away form resulting in a win against the poorest team in that group and two losses. In their national league Bolivar finished in first place with 15-1-4, 5 points ahead of 2nd place The Strongest. A 10/10 win home form, but 5-1-4 away, so not such impressive away form.
UNAM finsihed a strong 3rd in the Mexican Apentura, 10-3-6 overall and 5-2-2 at home, although finding themselves 8 and 9 points behind Toluca and America. They did not compete in last years Copa, but i expect them to be a resonably strong home team as their 2 losses came from defeats by the top two in Mexico.
1.33 is an absolutely terrible price, but i see Greek bookies have 1.70. Still i would only give this a 6-7/10 home win as upsets are possible, but a home win here is more than likely in light of UNAM's good home record and Bolivar's poor away record. But i wouldn't take this as a single or higher so this is no bet for me.
Cobreloa from Chile qualifyed in 2nd place from Group 1 from last years Copa Lib with a record of 4-0-2 12/8. A 3/3 home record with 10 scored and only 1 conceeded, this being against Brazilian Champs São Caetano with an impressive 2-1 victory. They finished top of the Chilean national league with a record of 13-4-1 and at home were 8-1-0, 7 points ahead of closest rivals Universidad de Chile.
Gimnasia had a terrible Apentura 2002 after so much was expected of them after their fantastic 2nd placed finish in the Clausura earlier that year, 6 points behind winners River and 2 ahead of Boca. A complete turnaround in the following Apentura season where they only managed a 16th place finish 4-8-7 and an away form of 0-4-5 18/24, possibly due to the sale of top scorer and influential Sava who moved to Fulham.
In conclusion, all the factors here point to a home win. Cobreloa had an unbeaten home record in both the Copa Lib group stages and their home league, only losing this in the Second round knock-outs in the first leg to eventual winners Olimpia, which is respectable. Gimnasia have gone downhill since the 02 Clausura and are certainly no longer a strong team. The highest i can find is 1.75 with William Hill and this seems a bit on the low side, but reasonalble as it should be an easy home victory.
So the pick is: Corbreloa @ 1.75 - 7.5/10 with William Hill
Not much can be said about either of these teams: Sporting crashed out of last years Copa Lib with 6 games and 6 losses 5/14 goals. To their defense, they topped the Peru national league with 13-7-2, still not mightily impressive. As Zoccer said Paysandu are nothing special - 21st out of 26 in the Brazilian National Championship, 1-1-10 away.
This is another no bet for me as both teams are poor. Their is a higher possibilty of a home win here, but i feel Argentinian teams are are better qualitty than those from Chile, so a draw or away win wouldn't surprise me here, so no bet.
So my current picks are:
Copa Libertadores Tonight:
11/02 - Alianza Lima v Olimpia - 2 @2.62 - STAKE: 5/10 - Bet 365 - K.O. @ 00.10 GMT
Great to see Europsort have got some Copa matches - i see they have something on tonight @ 23.15 so ill have to check it out, although probably highlights are the previous days match, but still thanks for bringing it to my attention
+ we were very unlucky yesterday although i predicted Reading to win due to our massive injury list. As for Jason Brown, he has put in stunning performances since we got him for a snip off Charlton last season and has made it into the Wales U'21 squad since. He signed a new contract recently a for another few years which is very pleasing as i expect full international honours and a Premiership team will be calling soon.
An additional information for Cobreola is that the stadium where the game is going to be played is at an altitude of 2250 meters! Players of Gimnasia will find it difficult to accomodate to the conditions, and according to past competitions, teams that are used to play nearly at the sea level, almost never win when they play at a high altitude.
Out of all the games didnt think this one would ruin my 100% record
1-0 up in the first half and the live update site crashed so dont know what happened.
Oh well, back to business
WINNINGS:
Bets Placed: 5 - **Bets Won: 4** - Pending: 1
Staked: 31 - **Ret: 53.25** --> +22.25 <--
Much more confident on the Cobreloa pick - thanks for the altitude info skoufos, i new it played a part in some of the games, but not sure what ones, thanks.
Plus now there is 1.91 available it does look very pleasing. Sorry about Olipmia guys, it looked such a good pick, i guess Lima have improved since but still thought it should be an away win here.
Your pick on Olimpia was wonderful, we were just unlucky.
I've listened the match to the radio and Olimpia had Marcio Costa sent off just five minutes later of 1-0, for a violent and stupid foul.
Despite this, Olimpia controlled the game without any problem. In second half the only shot on goal in first 20 minutes was made by Benitez (Olimpia).
Then another stupid foul gave a penalty to Alianza and they equalized at 24'. And that has been the last shot on goal of Alianza until the end.
Good luck for your next picks.
Logical win finished. Even though odd was nog high (only 1.40 I had ), I like to see hits on my tickets
I wish Bristol City yesterday won, that win would make 7/7 hits for me yesterday...
your recap of the match cannot be any more wrong. Alianza absolutely dominated Olimpia from start to finish, and should have won the match by several goals. Olimpia scored on a complete error by Roverano, who came too far out of his net...and they looped the ball over his head from about 40-50 meters from goal.
Alianza pressured the entire match, and were held scoreless by Tavarelli's excellent goal keeping + wayward chances from in close by the Peruvians. The penalty called was completely obvious and just. In the last 10' of the match, Alianza had 5-6 golden chances to win the game, as they pressed heavily. If not for a terrific Tavarelli save in the 89' off Jefferson Farfan, the Paraguayans would have gone home empty handed, which would have been the most correct result.
I'm sorry that I was completely wrong, but as I repeat, I was listening the match on a radio from Paraguay, and till penalty, from what I've heard the game was in Olimpia hands. And the only shot on goal that they described was the last one of Farfan, described as "wide".
Next time I'll be more prudent on describing a match from a south american radio.
Anyway good luck for your picks
i agree that the height of Calama should ultimately take it's toll on Gimnasia. check out their last trip in altitude vs Bolivar in the Sudamerica, and you will see what happened there. not nearly one of the best bets of 1st round, but I'd give the home team the nod.
We all know Ecuador is very good home team and last year won vs Brasil.Please if anyone have some info abouth this match vs Estonia post here, odd for home win is 1.40
I feel like i could swear throughout the whole of this f*cking thread - what an absolute pile of sh*t from Cobreloa..... all the chances, all the possesion and yet they couldn't covert one bloody chance into a goal. Absolutely f*ckin diabolical.
These teams are really p*ssing me off when they are playing such infearior opposition. Going from good to worse. Bring on the reliable Boca and River because it seems these teams couldn't score in a soddin brothel.
not sure if I would call Gimnasia inferior opposition, but it was a clear domination by Cobreloa. Olave made some incredible saves for GLP, and twice Gimnasia defenders cleared certain goals off the line. I have only seen a few instances where a team had this many shots toward goal without victory (Chelsea vs the Israeli's in UEFA Cup comes to mind). Cobreloa's revamped striking force is not the same as last year...
sporting cristal :paysandu (Login ibizza) Fixed Odds Member
Re: Super South America
February 13 2003, 6:42 PM
can anybody tell me in which height this game will take place .thx in advance,....is it right that cristal is missing some players ? ,...maybe i`m trying a small bet for the newcomers paysunda GL
OK guys, new round of Libertadores Cup is very close. I must say I believe more in "clean scores" that come from Libertadores than to strange scores that come from European Champs Lieague. Let us activate and make one winning ticket with Libertadores tips!
these aussies are strict about setting up accounts - and the site is sometimes frustratingly slow in loading up.BUT,you can deal in the currency of your choice - within reason - and they credit your account quickly.Plus - they are very well established.
I know every kind of betting against Brasilian teams in football is very risky. BUT, risk makes money. What I mean is, I will bet on Penarol to beat Gremio tonight, in front of ( I guess ) full of fans stadium in Montevideo, Capital of Uruguay. As i remember, this stadium has very big capacity, and I believe big number of fans will be there to make support for hosts. Also, Penarol has very hard schedulle in their group in Libertadores Cup, their last 2 games they travel away, so i think they should start making points at home ground, because they can not count on easy away points. let's hope I am right about this proposal
Not a good start. In fact, it was Gremio who had the lead 0-2, and in last 7 minutes Penarol scored their 2 goals. I do not understand why Penarol did not score these important goals earlier in the match ???
3 draws, and only one home win at 1.25 odd means very hard and bad round this week in Libertadores.If Penarol and Universitario were obvious hard games and NO-Bet ones, then I think Libertad should have won their gamv vs emelec, since thei group is so hard: Llbertad, Emelec, Dep.Cali and River Plate. Seems to me like Libertad will not qualify to 2nd phase after last night's disaster at home.
Right, back to business. None of the Copa games have looked worth it over the past couple of weeks, so i thought i'd play it safe and wait for a decent Argie away game. So here it is...
Emelec form Ecuador came out of last years Copa without a win: just 1 draw and 5 losses. They found themselves in Boca's group who beat them 2-1 away, so perhaps a good comparison with River. They are not progessing too well this season either, 1 draw and 1 loss so far: the loss being at home v Depor Cali by 0-4. Depor looking to top the group after a superb 2-0 home win over River. I managed to see the game and River were pretty poor with Depor taking their chances.
However they need to get back on track with a win here to ensure qualification, so good results against the poorer Libertad and Emelec are needed. River's league form is picking up after the poor home defeat to Velez and i feel they will have enough to win this game. Influentual striker Cavenaghi is the only absentee from the River squad.
It seems the bookies have are now more wiser when pricing Copa Lib games as this would have been perhaps around 3.00, but the highest i can find available is 2.25. Ill take it with a 7.5/10 stake as i hope to get back to winning ways
Put this in Zoccer's thread, but seemed more appropriate here...
Sporting Cristal (Per) x Cerro Porteno (Par)
Sporting regard this as an important game and are looking for the win. The team was very disappointed by the home loss to Paysandu and look to repeat the performance that gave them a victory in Chile v Universidad Católica. Very pleased with the 0-0 draw away to Paysandu, Cerro Porteno are looking to take 2nd place in the group, however rely on a set of 6 young players.
Racing Club (Arg) x Oriente Petrolero (Bol)
Osi Ardiles looks to make 5 changes to his team, important players coming back in and others replacing injured ones. Home advantage is very important for them here and should take a win to ensure qualification.
El Nacional (Ecu) x Santos (Bra)
Nacional with just a single point, look to take a win against the mighty Santos of Brazil to stay in the competition. However the home side find themselves without two important players, while Santos remains unchanged from the team who have recorded 2 victories so far, as their progression to the next round is not yet assured.
