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Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at a number of ways to use games where I am very certain a team will get a result, in other words they will not lose. Now in some case this is easy to call, for example Inter or Real madrid at home , but you only get low odds on these. I am talking about starting with a small sum and using 1X, X2 or 12 if needed, singfle bets, one after the other and only when there is a high level of confidence and the odds are at least 1.20 or over. I know this sounds very low but we are talking as secure as a bet can be, teams with high motivation and little chance to lose at the required odds. I was going to start with Valencia today at 1.27 but never had time to start it .What I am proposing is to start with say 100 points and keep letting this ride on as many winners as possible.
I am thinking of starting this on the champions league and using one particular betting account, possibly a new one and do it only on days where i can find a bet I am very sure about. I woudl welcome any input and if anyone would like to join in and start their own accumulation that woudl be great.
I am sure you've all heard of the one if you start with a set amount and let this ride like 22 times or something you'll be rich. Well I would like to start a string trying this, but it has to be double chance, as I think this offers more security.
Here are the selections I am thinking of whittling down before any analysis...
Inter Milan 1X @ 1.23 Dortmund 1X @ 1.47 Ajax 1X @ 1.46 Juventus @ 1.21 Barcelona X2 @ 1.67 Real Madrid X2 @ 1.37 Man Utd X2 @ 1.69
and possibly from english football
Fulham X2 @ 1.37 (FA Cup)
I think Fulham could be a very good one to start with?
All opinions welcome, maybe you think its a waste of time, maybe not, would like to hear all. I think it can be done, may have to lose a few times and start again but think it is possible!
they were avialable at 1.27 before KO not to lose tonight, their motivation is for the championship also knowing Sociedad and Real Madrid have both won their games so they need to keep up the chase and at least not lose. They are 3-0 up at half time but 1-1 woudl have been fine on 90 minutes for the win.
Is Fulham playing Monday and Wednesday or is the cup game being moved?? I suppose they can still not lose but will need to see how they fare after tomorrows game with Spurs, any opinions on the champions league games, I am off to see what the group point situation is like.
The odds on liverpool are terrible. Out of this list of European games i like the porto X2 - this is just off the top of my head - however they may lack motivation and field a weaker side because of their 5 goal advantage.
A good idea Jhim and it will be interesting to see how this happens.
A word of caution which I am sure you already know - upsets happen - there is no such thing as a certainty. Recent example - liverpool in the FA cup getting beaten at Anfield - that surely looked like a banker.
I've been trying this out myself for a while. Started with a tenner......got it to £20 and then banked the original tenner. Ive then got the remainder up to just over £20. Its not much, but substitute the tenner for £100 and it soon adds up.
Results:-
#1 First £10 on Sheffield United 1X, Fulham 1X, Chelsea X2 1.28 @ Gamebookers returns £12.80
#2 £12.80 on Agassi tb Sanguinetti 1.10 @ Gamebookers returns £14.08
#3 $14.08 Trondheim tb Lorenskog 1.15 @ Gamebookers returns $16.19
#4 £16.19 on Dallas tb Atlanta (NBA) 1.12 @ Gamebookers returns £18.13
#5 £18.13 on C.Moya tb E.Massa (Copa AT&T Tennis) 1.10 @ Gamebookers returns £19.94
.....then banked the original £10 so am playing with the bookies money.
#6 £9.94 on J.Blake tb J.Vanek 1.12 @ Bet365 returns £11.13
#7 £11.13 double on Butler and Marquette (College Basketball) 1.23 @ Bet365 returns £13.69
#8 £13.69 on Rangers tb Ayr 1.14 @ Betfair returns £15.60
#9 £15.51 on PSV tb NAC Breda 1.25 @ Gamebookers returns £19.39
#10 £19.39 on Valarenga tb Lorenskog (Norwegian Hockey) 1.10 @ Betfair returns £21.23 (with commission deducted)
Those odds are a little low for me though and I will keep it to two possible results, a lot of your ones are relying on a win only, whereas double chance offers security in the win and draw shoudl things go wrong. Thats exactly the idea though. And agree Higman, I won't be using Liverpool or Auxerre no doubt
Will probably try this twice during the week depending on what the analysis brings.
You are right Highman, when you say that lack of motivation at Porto side could spoil X2- they did it before!! 1st round Porto v Polonia 6-0! Return: Polonia v Porto 2-0!!
Porto v Lens 3-0, return 0-1!!
And I remember, last year, as it was costly, they did the same at Odense and WILL NEVER FORGET, they managed to lose to BANGOR CITY!!!!!!!! (After they won 8-0 first leg i think).
So BEWARE!!
They also have a derby at Benfica on Sunday!!!
the game between Wisla and Lazio might be interesting for your experiment. Lazio are just crap at the moment and I believe Wisla will get smth out of the game but these are just my thoughts on the first glance.
and 1.45 is good price, people can write off Wisla at their peril. Only reservation I have is Lazio is poor at home but does not do badly away. Need to decid wether Wislaw can draw or win, its very possible.
I am nearing to Anderlecht v Panathinaikos 1X, now when Olisadebe is injured and visitors safely on 3-0 win, they might ry to sit back and wait. Anderlecht not in great form, but perhaps...
I will once more be the devils lawyer and say that dc bets are the oldest trick in the book. The bookies know that of course and have taken measures. Very rarely you will find enough good opportunities to compose an accie with any value (if the accie consists of dc bets). And when I say value you know what i mean. Like any bet with low odds, dc bets make you greedy and very soon you'll be making big accies which of course your bookie will be very happy to see.
If you start with certainties you end up with doubts.
Good idea, if I'm winning this is usually where it is
1X or 2X (don't see the logic in 12 though)
there are still obsticales, in Nov was having a good run but crashed with a 300 point bet on Valencia 2X at Osuana @1.39, got to admit that took the wind out of me, I usually look for odds over 1.25 and keep doubling but it's a bit of a nerve tester if you manage to get a good run going.
if starting with a 10 point stake and backing a minimum of 1.2 you will be taking.
89 points after 12 bets
794 points after 24 bets
7088 points after 36 bets
not worked it out after that, I think me arse would have well gone by the three dozen mark. .
if you want to start with Fulham at Burnley, I took Burnley to qualify (same as 2X) with Blue sq last week @1.61, don't think the price has changed.
another way of going about it is to cover the draw so you get a stake return, higher odds with the majority of the bets going the way of the favoured team, this week I did a double Arsenal and Reading( with stake returned if a draw) paid just short of evens, whereas the best on offer for 2X and 1X was 1.63.
I see your point it's just that I can't see Fulham getting anything today.Of course your idea overall is good and I apply it myself.But look what happened to my accie(not posted in our forum yesterday).I had :
Valenthia
Monaco
Perugia 1X
And Perugia lost, when their recent form wouldn't have suggested it.
For financially middle of the way chaps like us,singles is our main weapon.But accies should also be given a try with perhaps lower sums and if all goes well for some time,increase the stakes a little.I think your suggestion is applicable although perhaps better on days with a lot of games like the Champion's League and Uefa and at weekends.
Another idea is ,because some bookies offer prices early on to prepare an accie composed of many days's games.That way we can get some juicy early prices.I'll take the Greek Championship.For some reason so far I've been doing well with it..And other guys should take other counties ,so by Friday we have some very strong looking accies ready for study.Don't know if I'm making sense.And I've noticed your Scottish picks are quite good.
Jhim - i will follow this thread with interest.
Myself i'm gonna run the "teams not to win" experiment i've started this weekend. Nearly exactly the same but it's not about accies, just singles. Hope we can make some profit by fading teams.
When doing 1x i think everyone should consider Betfair as the odds their is generally better.
Benign man - just because you wan't to accumulate your winnings you don't necesserly have to do it the same day. A bet a day for 10days is a 10-team accie.
Agree that singles is normally the way to go, but doubles have the same expekted
I am thinking of taking either Dortmund or Inter on not to lose, but very difficult to make my mind up, Inter will be out for revenge and have good scoring talent who will be keen to make ammends for last weeks defeat, but against that is Barcelona have won all four of their away games so far?
Dortmund very rarely is defeated at home in this competition but their suffered their first home defeat in a while to Milan in the last round. The plus side is Real are not that string away from home, having one win two draws and a loss in four away games so far.
Any thoughts, or does anyone think I shoul avoid them all and start with the UEFA. Or take Fulham
I know everyone will disagree, but I think a factor on this game for wednesday is TV, the game is a live televised match and nobody wants to look like an idiot on TV, the same as tonights game was televised at White Hart Lane and they drew 1-1. Something to think about. I seriously think Fulham will not lose. Not in 90 minutes anyway, not saying burnl;ey cannot shock in extra time or penalties.
Hi.jhim in my opinion leave Dortmund game coz at the end of the day Real Madrid is a good team so i think that the Fulham game looks secure coz they played real well today.i'm thinking of betting on these teams
Newcastle
Valencia
Deportive
Bristol City @6.89 with Eurobet
and then cover myself with these
Newcastle
Valencia
Deportive
Cambridge v Bristol City.1X @4.54 with Eurobet.
What do u think about that?
I have used the 12 bet a few times, I have seen good odds on a game where I just feel it will not be a draw, say like a strong team at home against a poor team away sometimes have seen a 1.20 and added it to accies effectively, but not very often.
the more I think about it the more I would go for Fulham!
Marlet and Djetou were tooken off injured tonight but they have plenty of class on the bench if you looked at tonights squad.
But my reasons come from money motivation, Fulham have ploughed a lot of money into players before and after getting to the premiership, this money has tro be recouped, this week Fulham earned 500,000 for the spurs game on TV, they will earn 350,000 from Wednesdays Burnley game, the BBC has also announced it will televise the game between Watford and the winner of this game, which will be about another half million in earnings.
Fulham I am sure also would like some top honours, they have the first division title but I am sure Tigana would like to show some real silverware so that fayed will set money in motion and state his ambitions for the future. And Fulham have a realistic chance to get to the final, Arsenal may be a bit of an obstacle but on their day reckon Fulham can beat any of the others still in it.
I just feel that despite playing twice in three days Fulham will aim very much to win this game, and all I want is them not to lose. They have the talent if they can get it right on the day, they have players like Saha and Inamoto on the bench, this could be a good chance for players like that to win their first team place for a while?
This message has been edited by Jhim on Feb 24, 2003 11:57 PM
for those that read it I put up Inter thinking it was a tuesday game, now deciding on wehter to have no pick on teusday and go for Inter or fulham, or take dortmund tomorrow and then go for Inter or Fulham, its a toughie. Back later, off to read more.
I am also sure I will probably regret it but I think I will start this on Wednesday instead. Dortmund were unlucky and lost a soft goal in Madrid, almost earened a draw in Spain but I will avoid it anyway, not enough security level.
Any arguments between these two picks
INTER 1X @ 1.23 FULHAM X2 @ 1.37
Which of the above two is least likely to lose their game, playing Barcelona and Burnley
Barcelona have been playing great football after Antic replaced van Gaal. Last week they won easily (3-0), and on Sunday they had 2-0 against Betis after 5min.
Also, how many games have they won in a row in Champions League (9!?).
Ofcourse another thing playing in Milano and Inter needs the win more, but Barcelona is on a great run at the moment.
On Fulham.I eventually placed an over bet.And it looked very good at first with an early goal scored by the visitors and then their being reduced to ten men from the first half.But Totteham failed to produce.
Just read on the BBC that both tems hit the woodwork often and on top of that:
'Tottenham will point to a glaring miss from Milenko Acimovic which will surely rob Ryan Giggs of the miss-of-the-season award.'(BBC)
Damn it!I was robbed of a nice over!
Appreciate it on the Scottish work Jhim.I'll give every info on the Greek Cup when I get it myself.
It's 4:33 a.m. here,was just a bit sleepless I guess.Will catch up on your input tomorrow.
Providing it is not postponed as happens in Scotland. Stranraer still have a couple of games in hand and will not be wanting to get too far away from Raith at the top. They impressed me by taking a two nil win over Morton in the Scottish Cup, even though Morton are a division below, its no easy task beating them at home. Stranraer are normally a very difficult team to play against home or away, but at home they are strong, just betting on them not to lose to Brechin tonight!!!
I like the look of Stranraer also, can get 1.34 at betfair (last time I was there).
as for choosing between Fulham and Inter
I would edge towards Fulham because for Inter they can still qualify even if they lose this match whereas Fulham are on a do or die mission and I can't see those showboating Londoners wanting to be around a bleak Turf Moor for any longer than necessary and IMO they will have the game well sewn up before the 90th min whistle.
Last night my instinct originally was to go for Dortmund because Real was not good at winning away from home, Dortmund would have been a good no lose, when I first looked at all the Scottish Fixtures I wanted Clyde but talked myself out of it. Shall I just go with my instincts??
Burnley manager Stan Ternent welcomes back Glen Little and Brad Maylett for the FA Cup fifth-round replay with Fulham.
Little is pushing for a starting berth after recovering from an abductor strain, while Maylett comes into the reckoning following Achilles trouble.
Drissa Diallo and Graham Branch have shaken off respective side and ankle problems sustained in Saturday's win over Derby.
Steve Davis is the only absentee, having been out of action since December with a knee injury.
Fulham striker Steve Marlet will miss the game after a preliminary scan suggested a medial ligament injury sustained in Monday's 1-1 draw at Tottenham.
But defender Martin Djetou is expected to play despite being carried off on a stretcher at White Hart Lane with a facial wound and broken teeth.
Manager Jean Tigana set out ahead of his team for Fulham's 49th game of the season to avoid passing on a flu virus to his players.
He is prepared to make changes and ease the fatigue for his team's fourth game in 11 days.
Dutch keeper Edwin van der Sar is out for another month with a broken foot and Maik Taylor should regain his place in goal.
Taylor was sent-off against Spurs with Martin Herrera coming on as his replacement but the Northern Ireland stooper should be back at Turf Moor.
And skipper Andy Melville can return after a one-match ban.
Sylvain Legwinski, Luis Boa Morte (both hamstring), Sean Davis and Jon Harley (both flu) are fit but Alain Goma is still out with hamstring trouble.
When the reasons behind your original options were entirely logical?
On the other hand, betting against a formidable team like Real is always risky.It's just that some game sould be avoided or betted on with small amounts.
...just kidding. What a thriller that Real game was. Don't know how many of you that watched it, but
dortmund were the better team in the first half, in the second half it was all Madrid with Dortmund having a couple of chances though. Dortmund's defence was superb but in overtime young Portillo could equalise on a pass from Zidane. Portillo had been on the field for a minute or two.
Hadn't Madrid equalised they would probably been out of the tournament.
ridiculous, I hate it when team consistently prove how crap they are then suddenly start winning in a very tough game. Fulham 1 down but still time yet!
after the Stranraer result ..the Scottish results last night were unbelievable how many would have thought that Ross County would have taken 5 off Inverness at Caleys ground..looking forward to this weekends pick or picks.
It probably was a bad idea to start this midweek. I am going to make the next pick or picks over the weekend where there are more chances and better chances. Down 200 so far!
looked like you were on to a hiding again but it pulled through in the end, good luck for the next picks. I will start a new string maybe for the weekend and carry over the picks.
Couldn't believe my eyes 0-2 after 15min, the same feelings as the Roma upset. Luckily Stuttgart could score a couple of meaningless goals (for Celtic not for me)
Current Topic - Teams not to lose - Accumulation experiment.
