Our
Forum has Moved - Please CLICK
HERE to go there now.
This forum will remain open as an archive only and cannot be posted
in but can be read.
Please go to the New
forum and Register as a Member!
1,use the Racing Post or use their web site at http://racingpost.co.uk/ then click on todays racing on the left hand side.
2,With every race the Racing Post gives each horse a rating due to past races,it the number next to the jokeys name.
3,The system is based on a weak fav,if the fav in the race has 3 horses with a better rating then its a lay.
4,Using a bookies site for the sp before the race will give you the fav ,i usally leave it about a min to the off then i will take the price.
5,Its up to you what odds level you want to work from but i will not go higher than 4/1 sp which would be 5.50 on Betfair.
I will not be able to post lays during the day as iam to busy betting but these bets can be checked easily by going through the Racing Post daily.
I base my betting on level stakes so lays daily will be based on £1 each lay on this thread.
So to recap lays are £1
,i will not lay over 4/1 sp.
Todays lays were,
Wolverhampton 12.45 6f Hcap
Layed Evolution Baby at Betfair 5.30,sp 7/2 came 3rd.
win £1
Wolverhampton 1.50 1m 4f Maiden Stks
Layed Tuppenny at Betfair 2.84,sp 15/8 came 5th.
Win £1
Wolverhampton 3.20 1m Hcap
Layed Royal Spin at Betfair 4.90,sp 3/1 came 2nd.
Win £1
Market Rasen 4.35 2m 1f Hcap
Layed Minster Glory at Betfair 5.40,sp 7/2 came 7th,was joint fav at the off with 1 min to go with
Deep Water who came in as fav, win £1
Nice to see you around this forum again. I remember when I was first on this forum you were always around posting updates on sites with good profits. I still use many of them today. Laying horses is something I'm interested in, a few questions:
- What sort of return/turnover do you get using your system?
- How long have you been using this system?
- I remember saying that you were quitting footy betting to lay horses on American horses (if my memory serves me correctly)- do you still do this?
Hi higman i have been using this system from before xmas,before that i was using this system on the USA racing but since xmas i am full time at betting with giving up my job.I buy race cards from trackmaster for USA racing but have cut back on the night racing as i am making a better return on the UK racing with my system.The + side of this system is that its based on laying favs so you can get a large lay on the horse at Betfair,i make a good return but i will not say what i lay at as most people would not belive me anyway.All i can say is you will make money,if you have any old RP check back using the RPs results and you will see what i mean.
because they are either making their debuts, or are switching codes for example Hurdles to Fences.
I would be wary of laying horses without a rating blindly, it is worth checking the comments about the horse to see why it is so prominent in the betting before stepping in
Looks like a good system, but as a relative newcomer to laying on betfair can you clarify something - I'm looking at the 12.45 at Lingfield now on betfair and to lay the favourite (perfect echo) it is 5.5 - in the history of the post it says you will not lay on odds of more than around 4/1 - but looking at all the other races on betfair today - there are hardly any horses to lay with odds shorter than 4/1?
Do you set the odds yourself or will they shorten closer to the race?
i would pay no attention to them whatsoever..they are largely well off the mark regards the horse concerned..i would use the comments from Raceform myself.
to why a horse has not got a rating Peter. Their comments are adequate at best.
It will show up in their comments, with comments like "Very Useful Hurdler, Chasing Debut". In which case you would not want to be laying this one because it has no rating.
When laying horses rather than a mechanical method I try to look for horses that I think can't win. These normally consist of horses running over their wrong distance, on the wrong going, or after a lengthy layoff.
Other circumstances maybe ......
Also oppose horses which attract the comments "One Pace" or "Not Quicken" these are animals that cannot find a change of pace at the business end of races and often find one too good. But their form figures often read 23232 etc. because they are consistent, and therefore will be overbet in poor races.
Any horse which is considered a tricky ride or quirky character is often worth taking on even with a top jockey on board. They shrink the price, but the horse can still be un-cooperative.
When laying at shortish prices, try to look what sort of strike rate your horse traditionally has in that type of race. Favourites do worst in Handicap Hurdles over the jumps because of the large fields and competitive nature no doubt, but if you consistently lay every favourite in Novice Chases you could well be in for substantial losses
Racing Post spotlight picks have an effect on the market, shrinking their price to make them very unprofitable long term, always look what they have chosen and then decide for yourself if there are any flaws in the form of the animal in question.
When using Betfair, try not to lay too much over the price the horse is trading at in the betting ring. Because the overround is very small on Betfair, the advantage can soon turn the backers' way.
what you were meaning Mark...i should have said that for the only Racing Daily there comments should be a lot better than what they actually are..personally i would side with you on the fact that i would like to check a few things if it didn't have a rating.
It is a while since I have been this involved ....
March 4 2003, 1:16 PM
with horse racing betting I must admit
Selective laying of around 2 or 3 horses per day on average has proved very successful, and also backing in Handicap Chases with a maximum of 8 runners where the form seems easier to assess and work out.
I have tried this before and lost as i have got greedy. Best thing to do is to keep it to a certain level and consistent as danny is saying. One question danny if you only lay 1 pound how do you make any money. As Exiledmanc said there are only six which falls into that category today which would mean you would only make 6 quid if they all failed ?
Anyway the rating is called the postmark which is the racingposts own calculations of how they fair. They consider handicap, form, racing on left/right handed courses, weights everything. But it would also help if you could read into the form as it then gives you a better idea as to whihc fav may not cut the mustard http://www.network54.com/Realm/footballfixedodds/pimp.g .
that Danny lays to win far more than £1 per bet after all he gave up his job at Christmas to do this
The best way of laying, is to decide how much you want to win from each successful lay. You may set the level at say £10 then it means if you have to lay a horse at 4.10, you are offering £31 to win that £10.
As a rule of thumb and an absolute minimum I would work out the maximum you want to lay at and then multiply your potential loss on one bet by 20. So if you want to lay at maximum 6.00 then your loss per bet would be £50 x 20 = Bank Needed £1000.
After each week, divide your revised bank by 20, this means that your stakes are in proportion with your sucess / failure
Cheers Mark mate. Isee its just one pound for this thread. A few races today. I looked at Perfect Punch. He doesnt seem ot have the crednetials to win as eh has never run the distance before. I think I'll try laying him.
Hi folks due to Betfair updating their site last night i phoned this morning and asked the helpdesk if the site would run ok today and they said they hoped it would run to a 100% but there might be some problems as it stands the site is still down as i write this,it has been up and down all day so i have not traded today,its taught me a lesson to open another account with Betdaq.com.Hope to be back for wedensday.
I should have said this last night if you are following this system there will be days when you have 6 lays and the 6 will piss it home and give you a kicking but it evens its self out over a week as on sunday past there was 6 lays all day and the 6 got beat giving me a winning card,so its up and down but you will hopefully get more ups.
How i work my level stakes is that at presant on this thread iam laying to £1 so after 6 days of trading i have made a profit the new week is then up to £2,but if in the first week i lose i trade at £1 until i win back what i have lost and added a profit be it 1,2,3 weeks then i move up the amount on the lay.
Well nothing today,the last race at Bangor i thought it was going to be joint favs and a lay but it changed at the last min to outright fav on Go Nomadic at 5/2 with Class OF Ninetytwo drifting to 11/4.More thursday.
Looking back on the thread tuesday gave £4 in winnings but i will not add these to the profit total as that day people would not have been able to lay them as i posted at night.So the total update is
In the race 3:30 Wincanton, Colonial rule were favourite but only SHARED the 3rd best rating with another runner.....is it then a lay or does it have to be 3 horses with a BETTER rating??
Another qustion....what do you do if a horse is a lay, but at the same time is the "racing post selection"...doesn't that mean anything??
Hi Colonial Rule did not have 3 horses higher in ratings so no lay and Racing Post Selection means nothing in this system,this system is very simple with a form figure being the selection factor as iam a great beliver that form is the one true rule of any horse.
How come you chose King Triton for that race? Out of curiosity i wagered a small bet on that race and lay a bet on Major Shark. I ended up winning, but now i do not know whether that happened because i followed oyur system, or because i was plain lucky.
Is the rating you mentioned under the OR colmn, or was i looking at something completely different?
Its very simple King Triton was the Fav in this race the sp was 3/1 at the off of the race.
King Tritions rating by the Racing Post was 101 and had Blasket Sound 102,Prince Galles 103,The Full Nelson 102,NDRS Cash For Fun 105 all rated higher than the fav so it was a lay.Laying weak Favs daily takes time as you have to watch the movment of odds on the market and odds can change right up till the last min,what is a fav in the morning could end up as 3rd fav come the time of the race so the most important time in laying horses is in the 3 to 4 mins before the race.
Must say i only put this thread up to give people an insight into my system but people have many ways of picking lays but this works for me as another way could work for someone else,as long as you can get a good rate of return with other systems then thats good.
a few intersting ones today at Cheltenham that i would look to oppose
March 12 2003, 11:15 AM
1st up would be Stormez 26 runners in this race and f/cast price is around 2/1 i just couldn't have that... Martin Pipe doesn't have a great record in this race to start with and younger horses do struggle at this trip of 4 miles all in all 2/1 puts me off ...it is also another Pipe runner in Liberman that i don't fancy another race that M Pipe has had a few fancied runners in the past but his record at even getting them placed in this race isn't good at i think it will go off fav..to be honest i think a few favs will get taken on today Moscow Flyer and Keen Leader and i expect those 2 to get turned over as well.
This week is average,the good thing with this system is you will get losing weeks but i just trade into another week at the same level stakes to win back the money and a profit then i up the level stakes for the next week.i have only had one week were i lost and had to trade into a 2 week period to win back my cash + a profit,6 weeks have had to trade on a 1 week loss this is over a 7 months period.My lay of the day is Moscow Flyer as he is a Racing Post lay but i have him as a lay with my 3 other lay systems,so i hope he gets beat or it will kill my profit on Rhinstone yesterday,good luck folks.
Hi Danny, following your system with great interest and it seems promosing so far. Not sure though that I got this staking thing right, are you willing to explain that a little??
Got it like this:
Say your stakes are 1£ in week one.
Week one shows a profit of 2£
Stakes in week 2 are then 2£....right??
Week 2 then shows a loss of 3£
Stakes in week 3 are still 2£...right??
If week 3 shows a profit, the stakes in week 4 will be 3£??
If week 3 doesn't show a profit, the stakes remain at 2£ and will do so untill the losses from week 2 are covered and there is a profit, at that point you raise the stakes??
Correct on staking system,but it is up to people to use what staking system they want i use this staking to gain more profit but is more a risk than level stakes over a year.People should use staking with % on bank every time they raise their stake.
Have to say danny you are being very patient, alot of people are asking questions and you have answered them. I think I understand your system. Using it I made Ungaretti a lay in the 4.20 - did you? Just got in from work and thought I would check this systmem out. Also as I work mon - fri do you use the same system at weekends - does that matter?
you come on and put a system up that works and has worked in the past for you as you say yourself others may use other methods but this works for you ..can't ask for any better than that.
Current Topic - ££££ Laying Horses $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
