Our
Forum has Moved - Please CLICK
HERE to go there now.
This forum will remain open as an archive only and cannot be posted
in but can be read.
Please go to the New
forum and Register as a Member!
Fall Away Stirling (1.90 Scandic) v Queens Park Strasbourg (2.80 Interwetten) v Bordeaux Burnley (3.25 Skybet) v Leicester Stockport (3.75 Bet365) v Wigan Exeter (2.80 Scandic) v Lincoln
Give Us A Goal Boston (2.20 Paddy Power) v Darlington Bury (2.50 Generally) v Rushden Huddersfield (2.00 Generally) v Mansfield
Draw Chases Queen of the South v Arbroath Draw (4.00 Bet 365) Rangers v Motherwell Draw (8.25 Expekt) Guingamp v Lille Draw (3.25 Betzone)
Let's see how we go between now and the end of the season, I am only paper trading these to see if an edge can be made with a view to using something similar next season
Don't know the criterias for your draw chase, but the danish league has just started again after the winter break, and Farum have so far played 18 games this season and not drawn any of them (9 wins and 9 losses). They would surely be a team to chase for a draw...or??
Is this the first time youve tried this mark. I have to admit it sounds a ggod plan as you are throwing away that darned form book and i think the zero to heroes one will definitely be worth watching.
If anything it is a fun and different avenue to explore.
it is fair to say that I patented "Zeros to Heros" which were then any home team with a 0 rating playing a team rated no more than 50. These had their fair share of success but for one reason or another I drifted from doing them.
Another system I used to use was "Strong Homes" which was home teams favoured by more than 50 points with the away team scoring no more than 25 points overall.
This season has proved my worst on football betting for some time, the teams have played very inconsistently and the form has been proved very difficult to interprete at times.
This has led me back to re-introduce systems into my armoury, not as a way of betting but hopefully to point me towards profitable areas of betting on football teams once again. What was good 12 months ago appears not be the case now so we have to move with the times, and my move is to move back to a more systematic approach to betting rather than purely reading the form.
Everything takes time though, that is why I am starting to paper trade from now on, rather than backing with hard cash until certain patterns appear in the systems.
it seems reasonable to take each one as level until patterns emerge then then the stakes can be adjusted accordingly.
You say about Roulette, where the chance is purely defined as 50/50 for black or red. In football matters are not that clear cut, and teams suffer from complacency, and emotions do play a big part in determining results.
I still maintain that when a team has reached rock bottom, ie 4 consecutive losses, their best chance to turn fortunes around is playing at home against teams that are not in fanstastic form themselves.
Time will tell I guess whether this thinking has foundation to it
Mosquito, it depends when you calculate the chance though.
If you start playing and calculate the odds of getting 25 times in a row black, then the chance would be 1 in 2 powered on the 25th.
However, if you are calculating the chances of getting black on the 25th time, after getting black 24 times in a row, chances are 50%, because the previous 24 times are considered facts (they have occured) and hence are not taken under consideration when calculating chances. So, whereas common sense dictates that on the 25th time we should get red, mathematically there is only a 50% chance. (In both cases we disregard the possibility of having zero as a result).
But in roulette, all outcomes have the same possibility of occuring, whereas in a football game there are many factors which need to be taken under cosideration, as Mark noted, giving different chances to the outcomes.
This in turn brings up value betting, when according to the different factos, you should have an odd of 1.50 for an outcome and a bookie gives it an odd of 2.00. You might not win every time, but on the long run you will be a winner. It is like having a number on the roulette table giving you back 37 (or more) times your money instead of 36.
I like to back teams with a strong ability to score goals especially when playing teams who have porous defences.
Back any home team who have scored 8 goals or more in their last 4 home games when opposed by a team that have conceded 8 or more in the last 4 away games
Qualifier Nottm Forest (1.80 Interwetten) v Derby
I will also track the Under / Over goals for these qualifiers with a view to backing the Over.
Nottm Forest v Derby Over 2.5 Goals (1.80 Planet Pinnacle)
I'm not sure which ones will perform best, but I'm fairly sure that Zero to Heros will do okay, they did fine the last time that I tracked something similar. Musti is the chase draw expert and he certainly has some fine results so I cannot see any reason why they would not do well also.
The Goals based systems and Fall Away are all new systems so it will be interesting to see those pan out.
but before this beware that you do not chase any team for anything if the season is close to its end UNLESS you will keep up the chase next season. be careful with relegation materials as their next leagues may not be offered by bookies.
for all first leagues, ideal chase start for a draw is 10 games, for a win is 12 games and for a home win is 8 home games. add these 2-3 for any lower divisions.
do not chase anything in leagues with many goals like norway 2.
make your staking plan wisely before starting any chases; do not double your stake unless you have back-up stats for the chase result. best stake increase for draw chases is 50%.
use a stop-loss criteria and use it no matter what. currently mine happens to stand at 10 tries.
do not pass any game in the middle of a chase just because you think it is unlikely. usually the chase result happens there
always check head-to-head stats and look for the streak. if it is compatible with your chase, then go with full power.
good luck mark ; currently i stand at a profit of around 25% for chases and would gladly answer any of your questions as by now i have loads of data to check anything
concerns backing Rangers and Celtic in correct score doubles with the following scores...1-0,2-1,2-0,3-1,and 3-0 in 25 doubles ..i have been following the results and going by the reports by the coresspondents it does very well indeed.
When you published your ratings I used these against my shortlist of teams to back and if the homes didn't have a 30+ higher rating that the away team then I crossed them off ! (most of the time the teams where piss poor odds - so they got crossed of anyhow).
I also did this for aways but they had to be at least 50 points clear.
Once my list was even shorter I then looked at attack/defense stats.
I really enjoyed this - it didn't make me filthy rich but I did get a few more beer tokens from it.
I will say now, that your methods set you apart from the rest, and that is the reason that you are succesful. You have found an edge and exploited it to the full.
I take my hat off to you, and would say to anyone that seriously wants to make this game pay then look closely at the methods employed in this case, because they are not conventional but work very well :-0
Bluekoba i read it in the Racing and Football Outlook
March 19 2003, 10:10 AM
my bible for only £1-10 a week..the guy who originally put it up around 4-5 weeks ago has been putting the results in the RFO every other week..the lowest odds will change from week to week as the odds of the team in that particular game determine what price the correct score odds are.
Mosquito is right to a point, there's a lot of Gamblers Fallacy in those systems, particularly the draws one. Unless you have good reasons for believing that a 16th non-draw is less likely, there is no reason to suspect that a draw has more chance than the typical 27%.
However, mixing this up with the Fall Away system, I've back tested the following over 10 seasons....
Back a team to draw which as won at least 3 of their last away games (English league games only).
Again, the hypothesis behind this is rather suspect (good away teams are not likely to get beaten but are happy to settle for a point since the dictum "win your home games and you'll do well" seems so ingrained) and the data was basically mined until I found this pattern (again a suspect procedure for developing a system), but these issues aside....
back testing to draw odds of 9/4 revealed a POT (yield) of 6%. 8 of then 10 seasons showed profit (including the current one). Only last seasons was a serious flop.
![](javascript:WhichFace("beer.gif"))
