Analysis of the first big handicap of the year with the Lincoln at Doncaster.

3.05 Doncaster - Lincoln Handicap

Sure to go off a warm order is last years' favourite Adiemus who is very well treated on that running due to the fact that he has not been seen on turf since. Drawn in 10, which housed the winner of the Spring Mile, he does look sure to go well but at the odds I will look elsewhere for the winner. I'm positive this one will be well backed in the morning and 4/1 could look big come post time, not one for me though. 

Norton who won the Hunt Cup and ran well in this race last year when drawn on the wrong side looks sure to make a bold bid also, although the value has drained from this one over the last few days no doubt because of his plum draw in 1.

Selective looks the preferred of Alec Stewart's two entries with Kieran Fallon up, but I was rather disappointed with the effort of Island Light in the Spring Mile, plus all his 3 wins have been in fields of 11 or less.

My pick for the race is Pablo trained by Barry Hills. He has only had 7 career starts to date, but has already proved himself in a straight mile handicap when scooting home at Newmarket towards the back end of last year. That was a deeply impressive performance and interestingly he had  behind that day the 1st and 2nd in today's Spring Mile, Aldora and JR Stevenson so the form has  a rock solid look to it already. That was his first attempt at a mile so with the prospect of more improvement to come and a perfect draw in stall 6, he rates my choice to land this above standard Lincoln for Barry Hills.

2.30 Doncaster - Conditions Stakes

Darasim looks a decent shout here, he should be able to get an uncontested lead with all of his opponents bar Razkalla being hold up horses. He can go well fresh as he proved  when winning a similar 12f conditions event at Ripon first time out last season, and the fact that he was thought good enough by Mark Johnston to contest the Doncaster Cup later in the season speaks volumes.

and would you believe it i have it down to 2 Pablo and Paulo Tioman ..Pablo with the draw and trainer are favouring it at the moment ..will get back to you with the final decision.

card on the Lincoln.

Read about Pablo there, certainly reinforced my view

and the ground is a slight concern and because of this i have come down on the side of Palua Tioman , so you just know Pablo will win ..good luck Mark thanks for the Timeform info..one i am going to lay today is The Privateer in the Kempton 4-10.

I defo like the 2 you have mentioned Pilau Tioman and Pablo.
For me i have done Scottys Future e/w 50/1
and Norton 25/1 e/w (8/1 ish now so nice price) and i have backed Selective also at 9/1 today.
Took the price on Norton last week and looks a nice bet and has a good draw and last year in same race won the race on opposite side!

Good luck lads

Was told this tip a couple of months ago now, will be on him too Mark

i marked it down to 2 and Pablo was one ..i have harped on all week about a low draw and Barry Hills record and knew it would happen..oh dear.

Well done lads!!

I ended up backing Pablo at 5/1 late for 20
I did Norton e/w 25/1 for 20 e/w

The BIG and best bit is i did the Combination t/c for a £1

On the 1st three pablo,Selective,Norton

Fingers crossed i geta few quid???

Z

Great Call Mark on pablo and the bookies must be crying as backed heavily

The Tricast paid £453 for a £1

I havent backed any horses this year and now this, i love the Lincoln LOL

Yipeeee

Just backed Orientor with some of the spons!

TOP MAN...... £5 at 9/1 cheers mate. Dont know the first thing about horse racing, but backed your judgement. I owe you a pint.

Well done Mark,class tipping.