There is a very qualified and interesting article at Features part of FFO.
Footyforecast gave his analysis of a phenomenon, well known to football punters, cause it is always very intriguing to bet on a team with a new manager (especially if he is a well known name).
There is not much to add, except perhaps that it is important who was apointed and at what time in the season, also important is that psychologcal effect is the strongest at first 2-3 games, which is also suggested by Footy article.
Also, odds he took (2.00) are a bit low IMO, they are nearer to 3.00 and more at away games, it is to understand that at many cases it is a team in deep trouble with long negative trends and bottom of the table.
Otherwise, a must read for every punter!

I see exactly what you are saying about low odds ... I would be delighted if someone would narrow it down to various odds ranges.

However, to me it has basically been a system I have employed with some success over two seasons. Even with the odds range ( all of them !!! ) I have chosen the home win pays 8%+ and the away win 16%+.

When I get time I might narrow it down and back test the odds you suggest and see if your hunch is right.

Basically the article just wanted to prove that there is merit in the New Manager Phenomenon...however people must know when to stop.

If you back just the first home + first away so far there is money in it. However here ends the 'honeymoon period'...it certainly does not last after these games !!!

Many thanks for your kind words and your constructive criticism is much appreciated...I am now worried I may have missed out on a bigger pay day by not scrutinising odds ranges.

I am currently researching my next article looking at the Hero to Zero phenomenon. Should be submitted mid April ( work commitments permitting )

Daz

Yes.
I found two nice excamples for your conclusion lately at Rennes and Espanyol.
Both had manager changes few months ago, broth two big names (Halilhodzic and Clemente) and found constant success, which had not last long, thou. After 5-6 remarcable games, now Rennes plays as they did before and are in danger again. At Espanyol it is not quite so, but they also showed best results in their 3-4 games, then found it harder (and interesting, these first games were to harder oposition!).
But you are right, when you state, that there are also some other things you need to take in mind, not all changes look good even when they occur.
The one, you show in a picture in your article is certainly not proving this system, but it happened too late IMO and will show results in a long run.
I have to admit, I tried Sunderland at their first match after Wilkinson sacking, but wont touch them till next season!
Daz, it is nice to have you here!!

wonder how they will fare.

What if there is no honeymoon period?
Does one persist? Does one keep an eye open for that first win with a new manager? Surely McCarthy will win a game.

It is a term used for first, most succesful games (by statistics, but of course it does not exist for all teams). Sunderland will surely win, sooner or later, McCarthy is a very good manager IMO, but I think, they go to div1 this year and coming back next year, after winning div1!!

In Italy we used to say:"team with new coach never loose the first one".....

Eliazen - The point of the article is that the honeymoon period that has previously been defined in other studies of 6-8 games ( see further reading in the article ) does not IMO exist. For the system to work you have to take advantage of the immediate impact of the initial 2 games or the 1st home and 1st away...after this point statistics show that the new manager is actually less likely to win any particular match than any team without a new manager.

Macoti Rennes / Espanyol are actually the exception to the norm. To get good results throughout a 6-8 game honeymoon period is statistically unusual - certainly following teams in general throughout this period means the punter will lose money.

Remember though my study is only looking at all four English leagues, Dutch 1st and German 1 & 2 - It might be completely different in France / Spain.

Daz

have international games come into any study??

Kerr takes charge of Ireland for first time away to Georgia and the best odds available are 2.00 at StanleyBet?

...However I chose to exclude them from the study as the honeymoon period could be extended over a year or so for a new manager to complete 6-8 games.

Daz

Daz, I understood you completely, Rennes and Espanyol fix into your study completely, I wanted to point out that they are 2 perfect examples of your theory, since they only won on their first 3-5 games and then started losing, so you would only profit if back them on first 2-3 games and then lose your money back.
Perhaps i was not clear enough, as I said at the beginning, the study is very good, it has the point exactly (you need to take advantage on first games and then skip the team) and it works on other leagues too! (psychology of the people is the same throughout!
Thanks, again!!

won his first game in charge at Ireland.

his first home game aswell !!!

Daz