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Question for Mark H - re: Hero to Zero

March 31 2003 at 11:52 AM

  (Login footy4cast)
Fixed Odds Member

 
Hello Mark... Just doing some resarch for my next article on the value of hero to zero for the punter.

In your system do you have any set criteria or personal choices or is it just any team who got whooped in their last match?

Cheers



Daz

 
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Mark Hodson
(Login Mark_Hodson)
Moderators

The criteria that I used ,,,,,

March 31 2003, 12:44 PM 

initially, was a team that had lost at least 4 consecutive league matches because these fitted quite nicely into the fact that they received 0 rating points in my system. Hence the name Zero to Hero.

The next criteria was that they were playing at home (because a team was more likely to break a streak in front of their home fans. If they were playing away they could settle for a point and not have their supporters pushing them onto victory)

The final condition was that their opponents had a rating of no more than 50 points, because they were less likely to break their losing streak against a team in top form.

I think the fundamentals behind the system are sound ones, for the fact that we are looking for teams likely to be underbet by the betting public in respect of the chance that they actually hold.


 
 


(Login footy4cast)
Fixed Odds Member

Cheers Mark

March 31 2003, 3:40 PM 

See your point and agree with the criteria.

At the moment I am writing an article on the results of teams who got a whooping in their last match, based on a system I have used periodically over the last 3 seasons ( Wounded Tigers !!! ).

Just wanted check if there were any similarities in our criteria...but obviously we are looking at diff things.

Cheers



Daz

 
 

Mark Hodson
(Login Mark_Hodson)
Moderators

Sounds good Daz .....

March 31 2003, 4:56 PM 

I always like to try and isolate teams that are underbet by the public, and this will almost certainly fall into that category.

One system that I looked at last year on the under / over goals market was to back any team that had just completed a 0-0 draw in their last league game, to go Under 2.5 Goals in the current match.

I must go and check the results this year to see how the results have been performing 

 
 


(Login footy4cast)
Fixed Odds Member

Underbet...

April 1 2003, 8:01 AM 

I am working on the same principle on this one...so far it has produced some surprising results that the punter may be able to utilise.

...but I will save it for the article. Should be with you third week in April.

Daz

 
 


(Login Mark_Hodson)
Moderators

Nice one Daz .......

April 1 2003, 2:13 PM 

how's the new job by the way ?

 
 


(Login footy4cast)
Fixed Odds Member

Long / Hard

April 1 2003, 3:44 PM 

...but lucrative !!!

Thanks for asking, once it all settles down and I have got it all up and running properly, I will probably take Jhim up on the offer to have my own tips page...hope I have still got it !!!?

Daz

 
 
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