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This week sees the Monte Carlo Masters series tennis, the years first Masters on Clay. As promised I have returned with a different staking system. If you require any explaination for the matches without analysis please don't hestitate to ask.
I have weighted my stakes such that each match wins 1, 2 or 3 points depending on how confident I am (in brackets)
Singles
A Corretja V F Lopez @ 2.34 0.78pts (1)
Both of these are yet to play on clay this year. Lopez beat Schuettler and looked at home on clay last week, and is improving this season well, in comparison Corretja has had a torrid season only winning 3 matches so far, with losses to the likes of Ginepri, Coria, Nieminen and a 4 sets loss to Lopez in the Australian Open. I hope Lopez will repeat that form tomorrow.
J I Chela V A Calleri @ 2.00 1.05pt (1)
Both of these are accomplised clay players with Calleri holding a 1-3 (all on clay) advantage, most recently Chela beating Calleri in straight sets. Calleri suffered an upset loss to Davydenko today and may well be tired from the weeks play in Estoril.
Other bets
D Ferrer V G Gaudio @ 1.40 5pts (2) (Gamebookers) G Kuerten V M Fish @ 1.18 5.83pt (1) M Mirnyi V J Boutter @ 1.73 1.44pt (1) M Zabaleta V I Ljubicic @ 1.63 1.59pts (1) (Gambookers) N Lapentti V M Norman @ 1.66 1.67pts (1)
T Dent V J Nieminen @ 1.50 6pts (2)(Gamebookers)
X Malisse V C Moya @ 1.19 5.53pts (2) A Martin vs O Rochus @ 1.45 2.33pts (1)
Tournament Winner
0.20pts on G Kuerton @ 6
0.21pts on J Ferrero @ 5.8
All odds are from Betfair unless otherwise stated
Bank
Staked: 31.63
Returned: 0.00
Profit: 0.00
Yield: 0.00%
some pretty good looking picks, the only one i would disagree with is corretja.
A proven clay specialist i think corretja will have too much for lopez. Lopez beat scheuttler last week, and although scheuttler is a very good player, he is more suited to hard. anyway, good luck with picks
Although Lopez succeeded in upsetting an off form Corretja, I don't think he'll have the same luck against the clay specialist Vicente. He's not been great this year but I think he'll show the same good form as he did during the clay season last year.
A Clement v V Spadea @ 2.04 1.01pts (1)
Clement has been dreadful this year but I believe he's about to hit some form. Spadea is not the best on clay and I think that Clement will be able to take advantage of that.
Other Bets
G Kuerten v M Norman M @ 1.29 7.24pts (2) G Gaudio v Horna @ 1.41 5.12pts (2)
Only 8 matches to choose from tomorrow and tough ones to call:
C Moya vs T Robredo @ 1.33 6.36pts (2)
I'm a big fan of Robredo, but I feel enough seeds have gone out of this tournament and Moya will be wanting to take advantage of this. Never played before in an ATP event, but Moya should show his power on clay having not dropped a set so far.
J Boutter vs S Schalken @ 1.63 No bet
I saw this one at odds of ~2.00 on Schalken ealier on today and decided to go for it. On looking back now the odds have dropped right down to 1.63. I think Schalken is more than likely to end the run of Boutter who has played a large number of games in recent days.
J I Chela vs J Nieminen @ 1.48 2.19pts (1)
Chela is best on clay and after impressive wins over Novak and Calleri he looks good to dispose of Nieminen in similar style. Nieminen saw of Kafelnikov, not I think to anyones suprise, today but was pushed hard. Chela holds 2-1 over Nieminen (Chela winning on clay) and I expect him to lengthen that lead.
G Coria vs R Nadal @ 1.45 No bet
I would have picked this one straight away, but after seeing the 16 year-old Nadal absolutly murder French Open Champion Costa (and my Betfair balance, DAMN LIVE BETTING!) and you won't see me parting with any more money betting against Nadal.
G Gaudio vs J C Ferrero @ 2.26 0.83pts (1)
I'm a big fan of Gaudio, and looking at the history between these two Gaudio come out on top. Played six times (5 on clay) , Gaudio winning 4 (3 times on clay) and the only time Gaudio lost on clay was at the French last year in a five set marathon. Ferrero also dropped a set today to Mantilla which shows he is fallable.
Other selections:
I Ljubicic vs V Spadea @ 2.1 No bet M Norman vs F Volandri @ 1.5 No bet F Vicente vs A Martin @ 1.73 No bet
I expect Moya to at least make the final in this competition and although Boutter is on an incredible run of winning matches. Moya has beaten him before on the hard and I don't think he'll fail to do so again on his favoured surface.
G Coria vs J Chela @ 1.94 1.06pts (1)
1-1 between these two, Chela winning on clay in three sets. I think Chela showed he's really in form beating Nieminen with the loss of just two games. Hopefully he can carry this on.
V Spadea vs F Volandri @ 1.78 1.28pts (1)
Volandri has been on an excellent run this week, but I think that it's about time he was brought down to earth. Spadea fought back against Ljubicic at match point and I expect him, with all his tour experience, to have less trouble defeating the young rookie.
Matches 18 Apr 03 10:00
1.98 Benesova I. v Cervanova L. 1.65
Last match Cervanova won easy and have very good clay record.
Clay: 7-2
Estoril Open
Apr 7-Apr 13 Clay
First Round Maret Ani W 6-3, 6-4
Second Round Iveta Benasova W 6-3, 6-2
we can try?!
Could I just ask why you feel Ferrero is a no bet? Is it because the odds are so low? Watched the game yesterday, and thought he did really well to come back from the dead.
I had him in a double yesterday with Moya, and was thinking about the same double today.
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
today i feel that volandri can win against spadea
as we can see volandri defeat the clay exp.like nalbandian and magnus norman.yesterday against ljubičić
spadea was wery poor his game on the net and the line was disaster.btw ljubičić is not clay player so i dont see anything but the 2:0 for young volandri today
well doougie?!
Thanks for the comments, guys, I haven't had a chance to get online until after 6pm tonight so couldn't reply to your questions.
I didn't bet on Ferrero because I thought the odds were too low, I probably wouldn't have hesitated if the odds had been more like 1.5. I think a moya/ferrero double would be a good bet again tomorrow as I expect a repeat of last years final.
I think Raymond has a chance of an upset here. Capriati has been saying all week how she doesn't feel comfortable on the surface. She dropped a set against Suarez yesterday and I think Raymond at least stands a chance here. (I took 2-1 to Capriati as insurance)
Mens Picks
C Moya vs G Coria @ 1.28 7.5pts (2)
Coria had an excellent win over Chela today dropping only two games, but Moya has beaten him twice on clay, once this year, (Buenous Aris 6-3 4-6 6-4) and looks unstoppable. I'm tipping him to win the tournament here and I don't think Coria will be the one to stop him if he doesn't.
J C Ferrero vs V Spadea @ 1.21 5pts (1)
Spadea has had a very good season so far and looks like making in into the top 10, despite that I don't think Ferrero will have too much trouble. He stopped any doubts I had with a stunning victory with the loss of just two games and we know that the conditions here suit him well. He's beaten Spadea on clay before and looks like he can do it again tomorrow.
Double
C Moya 1.40 / J C Ferrero 1.12
Double @ 1.57 1.75pts (1)
Thanks for your reply Doogie. I did take the double again, and added Galatasary to it, so it was a good day today.
Hopefully things come in three's so I will have another double tomorrow with them. I can't see any reason not to back them.
Good luck.
After Coria shocked Moya today and robbed us all of our hard earned profits I feel wary about betting against him. But Ferrero has been on fire and had no problem beating in form Spadea. We know these conditions suit him well and I think with Moya out of the way he will retain the title.
So I pretty much broke even, which is better than last tournament at least. I'll be back next for the next masters series tournament which is the Italia Masters in Rome on clay.
