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The norwegian soccer season started as good as it could with 2/2 hits last weekend. It`s due for the 2nd round and my objects are as following:
STABÆK - Odd, 1 @ 2.10 (PlayIt, Olympic)
Stake: 2/10 units
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Stabæk experienced an effective Sogndal team in their first match, and they gave away a 1-0 lead @ HT, and lost the match 1-2. No surprise as Sogndal as mentioned will be better than for many years this year. Stabæk did though an OK performance as the better team in a not so well-played match, and look forward to the first home match of the year. Stabæk has always been incredible strong @ Nadderud, and even if the squad has been wider and deeper, their first eleven must be cathegorized as a strong one.
Odd come to this match with a nice 1-0 victory over Molde in their bag, and the young team did well last match. Odd and Stabæk are usually both strong home teams who appear well organized and strong when defending. Odd`s main problem is maybe the lack of routine amongst their offensive players, many of them are very young, and their game will therefore see many ups and downs during this season.
I believe in a low-scoring game where Stabæk keep the trend they`ve had the past seasons, and takes a narrow win home to Odd. I estimate Stabæk`s chances of gaining three points to just around 50%, so not much value but worth a small stake.
Tromsø - Viking, Above 2.5 @ 1.80 (Unibet)
Stake: 3/10 units
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Tromsø won 3-2 away to Aalesund in an interesting match between the two newly promoted teams. The match were affected by nerves from both sides, but it was fair that Tromsø came out as winners.
Viking won as expected home to rival Bryne, 3-0 was a quite correct result as Viking appeared to heavy for Bryne to handle. Viking has a small squad and can`t afford any big injury lists this season, but their starting eleven is indeed amongst the better in the league, and now as most of them are fit, they will be able to upset everyone.
I guess Tromsø will try to push forward very early in this first home match in the premier division for 2 years, which opens for Viking to make the counters. I expect an open match between two teams who have very strong attackers, and it use to be very interesting matches between these two. 7 of the 8 last matches between these ones have ended with 3 goals or more, and both teams were involved in above 2.5 matches in the first round as well, which I don`t find any surprising at all. Not many bookmakers yet with total goal prices, but Centrebet has for instance 1.60 - 2.10 (U/O) with 3.5 as total, and that is probably a wise move. It`s the only match they have with a 3.5 margin as well. Unibet uses a 2.5 margin and I estimate the chances for this one to end over that one to somewhere between 60 and 65%, I also think the odds will drop during the day so you better take it early if it sounds interesting.
Viking @ 2.70 for the win @ Centrebet is also an OK price, they are favorites here as the better team and the statistics are with them as well.
LF Hønefoss - BÆRUM, 2 @ 7.50 (Expekt)
Stake: 3/10 units
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Expekt is quite off market with their price here, and 7.50 for an outsider victory is for me an obvious bet.
LF Hønefoss won 1:0 away to Alta last match, after Dokken made a penalty kick in the closing stages. The match were tight all the way and none of the teams were impressing. LF is always thrusted by bookies and punters, but in my eyes they still have a way to go if they should be able to fight amongst the 3-4 better teams, at this stage they don`t obtain enough quality to make f. ex. a promotion.
Bærum fought bravely home to Ham Kam but had to accept the away team taking all points in their first match of the 1 division. It was a very physical game where both teams had some chances, but Ham Kam is a strong team and all in all I suspect the victory was fair enough. But Bærum have been matched against many strong teams during the preseason, and their physical game can trouble many teams for sure. And Bærum`s opposition in this one is a team who prefer the smooth and short-passing style of play, which should suit them well.
1-1 in the preseason training match between these teams, LF looked as they were a few weeks off their best form last week, and this early in the season I am confident Bærum (who will have players back from injury here), is a potential winner, and to the price of 7.50 it`s worth a go. 62-20-18 are my percentages.
GOOD LUCK!
Earlier Picks:
13.04.03 Man Kam - Start 1 @ 3.25 (3 units) 1:0 FT (Bet won)
13.04.03 Oslo Øst - Raufoss 2 @ 2.05 (4 units) 1:4 FT (Bet won)
Guess we should be just about satisfied after todays action, as 2 of the 3 picks went my way.
Stabæk won 4-1 home to Odd, and Tromsø - Viking went above 2.5 in an exciting 2-2 match.
8 units staked this weekend, not more than 9.6 units back as LF Hønefoss - Bærum ended in a 0-0 draw, however I am not questioning the value it was backing Bærum today.
But on the other hand I prefer putting my stake on the outcome which after my opinion is the overprized one (valuable). So in a league where the draw only appear in 17-18% of the matches, I very rarely head for it.
A true hunter aims right for the heart, a shot in the side spoils to much of the nice meat
Hopeless match so early on. Don`t know where this years Brann stand yet, they were OK against Lyn but RBK is another thing.
Rosenborg is always hard to go against, but I would do so if I were forced to make a bet on this one, luckily I`m not.
7 of the past 8 matches between these two teams have went above 2.5 goals. Think it will be a few goals today as well, so Unibet`s 1.75 for above 2.5 may be worth a shot, that`s the only bet I have ever considered on this match.
Jäger
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