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Hi guys, been busy and all that for a while so I apologize for not appearing with my norwegian bets as promised! However, there`s an OK bet in Austria this weekend which I`m backing already now early in the week, as I fear that the odds won`t come near to todays prices later on.
BREGENZ - Ried
Home Win @ 2.10 (Baw), many bookies with 2.00 as well
Bregenz is situated last in the league and may suffer relegation unless they win their last 2 matches and get some external help. With 6 points to fight for, and 5 points up the teams in front of them, it is of course possible to stay clear. They are playing home to Ried in this one, and Ried and Admira will meet in the last match, while Bregenz is set to play Austria Wien who won the league a month ago in their last match.
Bregenz have a negative goal margin of - 15 goals (43:58), while Ried has - 10 (41:51) and Admira has - 14 (31:45). Very close indeed, but if Bregenz win Ried by 2 goals, the picture is turned around, and with more goals scored and an eventual win in the last game, Bregenz may have the edge on both the two teams later on. (Which mean that they can`t both draw and get out if it alive).
Admira have a tough match against Sturm Graz this week and it`s therefore far from possible that the final round will decide the faith of each 3 teams situated in the bottom!
Though, Bregenz should be able to take down Ried, who after a stunning autumn season have collapsed totally. Rieds form is horrible as well, with these results for the past 7 matches:
Sturm - Ried 4-2
Austria - Ried 2-0
Ried - Salzburg 1-2 (Salzburg outplayed them with 10 men on the field for more than half the match)
Kärnten - Ried 4-1
Ried - Pascing 0-0
Rapid - Ried 3-2
Ried - GAK 1-3
Bregenz have had a quite respectable run lately agains top-motivated opponents so the fighting spirit is there at least:
Bregenz - Pasching 2-1
Rapid - Bregenz 0-0
Bregenz - GAK 2-1 (GAK has 8-3-1 on the last 14 matches beside that loss)
Bregenz - Admira 0-1
Sturm - Bregenz 1-1
Home / away / vs. stats:
Bregenz 5-5-7 at home
Ried 2-4-11 away
15/03-2003 Ried - Bregenz 1 - 3
28/09-2002 Bregenz - Ried 1 - 1
17/07-2002 Ried - Bregenz 1 - 1
20/04-2002 Ried - Bregenz 0 - 2
01/12-2001 Bregenz - Ried 3 - 1
29/09-2001 Ried - Bregenz 2 - 3
Ried lost 1-3 home to GAK last match, where they were in front 1-0 after 10 minutes after a goal by Radovic. However, GAK flipped the coin to 2-1 before half time, and Ried got their goalscorer Radovic sent off with a red card. Radovic have 26 matches and 8 goals this season and will be suspended here. Suspended will also Sidibe and Grassler be after collecting yellow ones during the same match. Sidibe is a pacey attacker with 5 goals this season, Grassler a good midfielder who fights until the final minute (maybe he fights a little bit too hard, 9 yellow and 1 red card this season...) If that wasn`t enough, Ried have two new injuries, most important is the offensive player Herwig Drechsel who limped off after only 5 minutes last match (26 matches, 5 goals this season). But another player, Milan Oraze, which is Ried`s no. 1 goalie, was injured in front of the GAK match, and he is still out. The young and expierenced goalie Michl will have to enter the gloves also this match, and it`s of course not a benefit for a low-morale team to have a green guy between the posts. However I guess he is OK and therefore just play a marginal role when it comes to calculating the bets value. But it`s worth mentioning.
Status quo in Bregenz, they are more or less fully fit.
Bottom line, Bregenz have the odds on their side when they enter the Casino Stadium this saturday. They are meeting a team who totally have lost their game, and with the fresh squad details in mind, this should be a very nice chance for Bregenz to stay in there. 60% is a minimum estimation for the home win, but I will follow the opinion of my stomach and put a little xtra on stake here. The odds we have now is probably the best that will occur so I take it early instead of awaiting.
WOW, great review. tnx a lot Jägermaister. Can you tell me if any Bregenz players are injured? I'm also interested if Bregenz still believes that they can save themselves from relegation.
Don`t know if you have accounts in all these Scandinavian bookies, which is recommended as they have the better odds on Norwegian soccer 95% of the time.
My picks in the cup is as following (will have to be quick):
Byaasen - Strindheim
Home win @ 2.35 (Expekt)
Byaasen had a great pre-season but started the season in a very weak way. However, their form has gotten better and better, and their final match was absolutely suberp. Top-motivated and fully strength to this one, while Strindheim will be without several important players. Home win is very probable and 2.35 is good indeed.
Lofoten - Narvik
Home win around 1.50
Many bookies with adjusted or even removed odds for this one, as Narvik is gonna field a very un-experienced starting lineup with lots of juniors and stuff. Lofoten is a good home team up in north, and they will "take" this one for sure. Expekt / OddsAlive/Betinternet has it open still...
Bregenz does of course understand that this is fully possible and they will go for it for sure. Their homepage cathegorizes this match as the most important one so far this season.
Bregenz are without Jiri Rosicky as they have been for a while, he is a utility player who have started somewhere about 45-50% of the matches, and the services of Emmanuel Akwuegbu, who have 7-8 matches only this season.
Otherwise they are fully fit and they can field therefore their strongest lineup if not anyone get hurt on training this midweek.
I have to say that i have many doubts here about home win. Although i don't know too much about Austrian football, i know that took place a long effort, to keep Admira safe of relegation, from many teams. So they didnt care about Bregenz's relegation (exept Sturm Graz and Rapid i think). So we see in last rounds some strange results which are far away from real abilities of teams. In my opinion, if Bregenz want to avoid relegation they should win Admira at home. They lost (and i made a respectable profit)and now they are 4 points back. Ried fights for the draw at this match and i think that is the most possible result even with absences they have. Too risky for me to take home win!
Good luck with your bet!
I see you really do not know much about Austrian football...
A real explanation,why things fortunately will be different on saturday would take much too long!My only advice for you is to play on BREGENZ.I give Bregenz at least 75%.
ried got a new coach last week and he already had big wins with ried for about 6 years and retired 2 years ago.now he is back and as he is a local guy he knows everything about ried over the last 2 years.
for sure he will play defensive and will wait for the counter attacks.bregenz is very nervous and even if they win they will be relegated!!
last game of the season ried-admira -a DRAW between this two teams will be the end for bregenz in austrian max-liga!!
ruedlieb 30% is a megajoke or??? ried miss 5 important players and also a poll on their homepage tells their fans do not believe in them!63% believe they will take not the point at bregenz they still need ! i give also 60% to bregenz so 2.10 2.20 odds were great value for me!
How can a deciding game between two similar clubs be a banker?!?
I mean, perhaps Ried is missing players but those who play will do 110% effort especially if they have their magnificent trainer from the past back.
Besides, you are talking about welthy owner there, but news out were saying, that Bregenz was one of two 1st division clubs (Salzburg was the other one), who did not get licence for next season a fortnight ago.
I dont know what happened next but I would never bet on a game like this...
Kult, I think you are from Austria.
You know very well, what Klaus Roitinger meant for the club in the past.
He was Guy Roux of Ried and game against GAK means nothing, they are a class better.
But Bregenz and Ried are thereabouts so even without goalie Oraze, Sidibe, Drechsel, Grassler and Radovic they are going to give their best and try to get a draw which rescues them...
Dont be so pompous...
Nice to see others share opinions. When I put the spotlight on Bregenz this early, it was mainly because prices like 2.10/2.00 was available. I can see that the market seem to drop down to 1.90/1.85 already and that makes an eventual bet less good of course with the value aspect taken into consideration.
However, I am still convinced that backing Bregenz at this early stage was a wise investment. My estimation around 60% is something I totally stand for, and the new trainer aspect is very often over-rated and since it isn`t even the first match with him in charge, I doubt the influence as long as Ried still struggles.
As you said, losing to GAK isn`t anything to be a shame of, GAK is a strong team compared to most of the others in the Max Bundesliga, and they`ve been superb lately, only 2 losses have they suffered from the past 13 (?) matches, which of 8 was won. Their last loss was here @ the Casino Stadium vs. Bregenz (1-2) just to point that out.
One thing I will have to correct here, is the comment about Ried`s last game. They can probably not "just draw" with Admira and get out of it alive. Much will depend on this game, but remember, Bregenz have a negative goal margin of 14 goals, same as Admira, while Ried is 4 goals ahead with -10.
If Bregenz should be lucky here and win Ried by 2 goals, while Admira loses to Sturm Graz (which they tend do to.. 0-2-13 is their stat the past 15 matches against Sturm Graz), then the coin is flipped around. Bregenz and Ried will both be down by -12 while Admira will be way behind. And since Bregenz have scored more goals than both Ried and Admira, they will have the edge on both those two teams in head of the last round, of course they will have to win themselves, but it`s not an argument by any means... (which I also tried to point out in the original post)
But this will be the final word for me in this case. My bet are already placed on Bregenz and I am fully aware of all the aspects on the game.
Ok since I mentioned Sturm Graz I can also mention that I will take them with a small stake. Expekt and InterWetten offers 2.80 and with 13-2-0 in stat against Admira it`s hard to not be a little bit attracted by that price. The draw isn`t excactly very probable either here, Sturm is 7-1-9 away and need 3 points.
As all profesional punters online are laughing at some of you right now, I'll do my share too.
HAHAHAHA
Bregenz got 75% ?
Bregenz is a banker ?
Uahahaha
Seriously, those injuries, and the motivation does make odds around 2.00-2.10 betable, but now we're down to 1.85 and I can't see much value in it. Chances fr Bregenz-win should be somewhere right above 50%.
There is another pont noone mentioned. Bregenz played Admira at their home pitch a fortnight ago and- lost 0-1.
Now the pressure on them is extreme, they know they need to win against Ried and Austria and it wont make it any easier for them.
As for Admira v Sturm game, this could easily be a home win, they are 3-2-1 formwise, as Sturm are 1-2-3. Admira would rescue themselves with this win and Sturm plays practically for nothing, I dont think Intertoto cup can be of great interest for them...
game with big pressure on bregenz. And i think, they can maybe take 3 points at the end, but the players motivation got a big big hit after the homedefeat against Admira. Bregenz is my hometeam and i saw a lot of games this season, but i think next year we will be for 85% in the 1st division. BTW a friend of me was in a local last sunday and there he saw the Bregenz player Berchtold - talking to him, how the future will look like, he was talking about a "mission impossible" seeing Bregenz not going down this season. And i have also big respect, when talking about Rieds new+old coach Roitinger - he will give this team for sure the old "Ried spirit" back, earlier or later...
!
