As many of you know, more than a year ago, we

predicted that the Dow would fall below 7500 and

that several major investment banks would go bankrupt.



Many of our posts reflect our strong belief that the US will face

a depression between 2009-2012. Baseball card prices, with some

notable exceptions are likely to fall- perhaps as much as 25%-35%



A number of auction houses will close because collectors will stop selling.



However, there is a strong possibility that a far more tragic scenario

will develop.



For argument sake, let us assume the announced US Government investigation

into price manipulation and alteration of cards moves ahead rapidly and there

are formal Indictments.



Let's all assume the government decides to seize all the property of the auction

houses and or grading service that has been indicted.



What is the position of the consignor with regard to items seized by the Government?



If he or she has received an advance, do they have to return it?

How can he or she get his cards back?

Is there any insurance available that will protect collectors or consignors?



If and when this "perfect storm" occurs, how will impact the future of the

hobby?



The purpose of this post is not to argue the state of the economy and/or

how bad things are likely to get, but rather to raise the question of how

is the collector protected when and if an auction house



(a) Is indicted by the government and property is seized?



(b) Auction house closes its doors before an auction is completed

and said auction house has consignments from collectors.



Our hobby must prepare for a worse case scenario- who knows, our own

version of Bernie Madoff could be on the Board as we speak.





Best wishes for the New Year!





Bruce Dorskind

America's Toughest Want List

Bruce, interesting questions. What happens if an auction house closes within a week or two AFTER an auction? The money will come in, but will the consigners be paid and will the winners receive their items?

Rick

Bruce- why spread such gloom when it is merely speculative? I don't expect 2009 to be a great year either, but let's all at least be a little more hopeful.

P.S.- please no private email, just post your response on the board. For the record, I am tired of receiving private emails when I post on Net54. My 2009 resolution is I will delete them all unread. Thank you all for understanding.

Barry







We don't have to spread doom and gloom







CNN, Business Week, The New York Times etc, are far ahead



of us in this arena.







The fact is that the Hobby is certain to face the most difficult



year in its history and with a pending government investigation,



we should be prepared to address the question of what happens



if and when items consigned to a major auction house or items



currently being graded are seized by the government.



In this case where the Auction House takes a long time to pay consignors

the Government could seize the payments for the auction lots before the

consignors have been paid. In this case a consignor would have lost both his/her

consigned card and the money due to him from the auction house.







This may be a worse case scenario but one we will predict will occur



at least once in 2009. The dark clouds preceding the "perfect storm"

are clearly on the horizon.







Best wishes for the New Year!











Bruce Dorskind



America's Toughest Want List

I would love it if prices dropped - I could finally get tons of stuff that has been out of my price range. Great post Bruces!

I know that 2009 is going to be a very rough year, but in your BST post you wrote that the great depression is around the corner. That is a very extreme scenario among many that may play out. And several great economists will disagree with the severity of that prediction.



As far as auction houses under investigation I only know of one at the moment. I suppose the government has the right to seize all consignments, but why would they?

Barry


We are raising two very important questions.

If the Government seizes the assets of an auction house
or grading company, our question is what happens to the items
that have been consigned or what happens to payments to the auction
house that have yet to be distributed to the consignors?

We believe that if the auction has goes bankrupt the consignor is
a creditor just like everyone else. The decision may rest on both
state law and the auction contract with the consignor.

One should not under-estimate either the probability of a depression
or very severe recession nor the probability that an auction house
could either be seized or file for bankruptcy

That's our final comment on your point


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Bruce....i am trying to figure out if you are related to Bruce Pardo. All joking aside i recently sent cards to auction and they blew out like a Nolan Ryan fastball. People were able to make alot of money from 2002 -2006 and got spoiled with a very positive and credit-cash flowing economic upswing. I think things are just leveling off and prices of all antiques not just cards are going to go with the flow of the economic wave. I can honestly say the current recession has not affected me at all in a negative fashion, possibly you should do some research into Warren Buffet's thoughts and why he is investing mad cash when everyone else is reaching for the panic button. There is a reason why the rich keep getting richer and it is not luck or good fortune. A friend of mine bought a piece of real estate for 290,000 in 2001 and flipped in 2005 for 540,000 and now the property is on the market for 320,000. Things are never as good as it seems when you are rolling and also never that bad when you are down. I like your posts though because it makes things easier for guys like me to buy espensive cards. I'm quite sure though that anyone wanting to have a auction is not going to like the post. I think you have been hanging out with Randolph Duke to much "Sell Mortimor Sell" MB

I'm just trying to understand why the government would seize consignments. Wouldn't that be penalizing innocent victims who are not party to an investigation?

I do agree that if an auction house went bankrupt then consignors would likely have a hard time recovering their material. That is always a risk, in any area of business.

I always look forward to the new year with optimism. 2008 wasn't a good year for my family in the health area, & my IRA's took a beating. To hell with this doom & gloom stuff.

WE are concerned. If and when our dog decides to eat a favorite rare card or cards, when the pieces are "retrieved", are WE ethically allowed to tape or glue the pieces back together? If so, WE were wondering if the said card or cards would be considered more rare do to "limited" production or would they become "reproductions"? Our final concern is weather or not the "new" card would be worthy to be graded?

...all in fun!

Be happy!
Lance

Bruce,

If the government seizes the building you live in..... where would you live?



You seem to have a lot of fear or are spreading a lot fear.....


I want to help you out.
Since you believe a depression is right around the corner, it must be a great time to divest of your cards.

Please send a list of what you have and your bottom
line asking price in confidence to

joe@internetville.com

As long as INTEREST rates stay LOW....they are now the lowest (4%) in many a moon....Collectibles will thrive and flourish.

Let's take a lesson from recent history. In 1979 - 82 when inflation was 14%......interest rates were 20%....and, unemploy-
ment was 10%, we were suffering and Collectible values took a severe dive.

We are in a "recession", not a "depression" ! ! So, calm down, you gloom and doom naysayers.

Now, if Paulson (and Co.) continues with these Government bailouts......we will be in trouble. FDR exascerbated the 1929
depression, and it dragged out for years, by doing exactly what Paulson has been doing since October.

Let the free market prevail....and, it will correct the economy....much sooner than the Government can.

If, I am wrong and BB card values diminish....I, for one, will welcome this....as it is an opportunity to buy more BB cards.

It's a "WIN - WIN" situation.

Why do I have a feeling this thread was merely the starting point for "Bruce,Bruce and Bruce's auction house, complete with recession protection for your collection!"

Just let me know when the bottom falls out of the hobby,I got some Old Judge cards I'd love to be able to afford

Trust








no










one

















Best wishes for the New Year!

FYI

We are not, nor have we have ever been in the auction business.

We are interested in learning about your strategy for a recession
proof methodology to protect one's cards.

In the interim, no one has answered the important question we raised
which is what happens to the consignor if the Auction House is either
indicted or files for bankruptcy?

We are quite certain that one, possibly both of these events will
occur in 2009.

It is not doom and gloom, but reality.

We also disagree with Frank's post with regard to low interest rates ensuring
the value of collectibles.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

I wouldn't want to be a consignor with an auction house that declares bankruptcy, as it could be genuinely difficult to get your material back. But does anybody know auction law?

And as far as the government shutting down an auction house and seizing material, I would like to know why they would do that.

I would not be too upset if the bottom dropped out of the baseball card market.
For over 25 yrs Ive collected because I enjoy it,..yes Ive spent lots of money on the stuff over the years ( way less then some,way more then others),but it would not change the fact that I simply enjoy collecting old baseball cards,no matter what the price guides say. Of course the other key reason,is Ive always collected off grade cards...Ive never spent over $300 on any one card

if you are worried about a recession, then you have no business collecting cardboard....especially old cardboard...

although many people may be affected by a recession, not all people are...and it seems to me, people who are are not affected by the recession are also the ones with the disposable income to sink into expensive cardboard...

SO, its not like people on this board get food stamps, or are worried they may lose there jobs....because if they were, they wouldnt be here...

SO, you post seems like a hot stake poking around looking for an eye...

I would imagine that a consignor who has material with an auction house that gets shut down by the government would have to wait for things to get sorted out, but they will get sorted out and the consignor will get his/her material back. Not sure how long this would take, and I'm sure it would be uncomfortable for those people.

As far as bankruptcy goes, I would think that would be less of a concern, particularly if it's a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. I would imagine that in a case like that, the auction house would continue doing business while it reorganizes, with consignors receiving payment for their material. More of a concern would be the timeliness of that payment, coupled with a loss of bidder confidence that might result in lower hammer prices.

I do not see a major panic happening with respect to the hobby, however. The autograph business seems to continue thriving, despite all the Federal investigations into that business and the resulting doom-and-gloom. I remember reading at one point that as much as 70% of autographs could be fake. Doesn't seem to stop people from shelling out big dollars for them.

Ultimately a shakeout in the hobby will likely result in the more reputable auction houses gaining market share. That would be a good thing for us as consignors and as bidders, as it always inspires confidence to deal with a reputable firm.

As far as a "depression" is concerned, I am no economic genius, but I don't see it happening. We have a long, long way to go before unemployment reaches the levels to trigger a true panic or a very lengthy downturn. Those of us who are involved with this hobby for the sheer joy of immersing ourselves in the history of the game and its collectibles will benefit from those of us who are involved in the hobby for investment purposes, and therefore panic about the value of their investments deteriorating. My limited experience indicates that panic selling of ANY investment is not a great idea if you're a long-term investor; those people getting out of the hobby will only create buying opportunities for those of us who view this as more of a hobby. I'm not saying there's a right or a wrong way to collect - there isn't - but I am saying that as long as there are sellers, there will be buyers.

-Al

Bruce ,
I think now would be a good time to walk over to the window, open it and take a deep breath of the fresh morning air and think of good thoughts for a change.
I think what were getting at here is there's more to life than the constant doom and gloom thoughts we seem to hear about from you much to often.
"Family", "Friends", "Health", and just seeing the sun come up every morning is enough for me. I think you need to ask yourself, "is this enough for you".

Best Wishes for a Healthy & Happy 09 to all,

Tony Andrea

We suspect that by mid Spring when we open the window we will be witnessing
a number of New Yorkers jumping out of their windows...and not because the value of their cards
went down

We appreciate all we have. We simply want to understand what position and options
a consignor has if something happens to an auction house before he/she is paid?

That is a fair question and one which is quite relevant at a time when the Government
is aggressively pursuing several major players in the industry and the economic climate
is likely to serve as a catalyst for a number of business closings.

We wish you a Happy New Year as well. Hope that you will lower some of your
BIN prices-


Best


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Are the Bruces expecting any body fluids mixing in 2009?

THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL NOT HAVE THE TIME OR MONEY TO DEAL WITH ISSUES SUCH AS BASEBALL CARDS. THE NEW HEAD OF THE FBI WILL PASS HIS INFORMATION TO SMALLER DEPARTMENTS, AND THEN IT WILL BE BARRIED UNTIL SOMEONE WANTS THE JOB OF THE INVESTIGATION. THERE IS TOO MUCH GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND MOST OF THIS TALK WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE!!!



I do agree that there will be many changes in our hobby, but it will not include the federal government. I would like to see more happen because many other parties involved with some of the statements mentioned should be held accountable for their actions.

also Brain made a could point "trust" will be a very important word next year! I am starting to lose trust in a lot of the areas in the hobby.


Jimmy

WE ARE !!DOOMED!! Chill out for god sake. No need to panic until problems happen. Frank

While such a scenario with the gov't seizing baseball cards and memorabilia is absolutely ludicrous...it can't be anywhere near the top of their priority list these days...my plan to safeguard my collection is not to sell any of it through major auction houses. In fact...I'm just going to leave all of my cards in their respective shoeboxes!

peter ullman

To get straight to the question of what happens to collectibles if an auction house has consignments and is involved in some kind of govt. legal issue? I am no lawyer but I would guess it would take some time but consignors would get their material back. If advances were given on them then that would muddy the waters. I am not sure when "title" to property passes but I don't think an auction house "owns" consignments ...again with respect to advances I am not sure....

As far as the economy goes....It sucks...will continue sucking for a lot of '09 and then hopefully will get better. Even though I didn't vote for Obama I do have confidence in him....best regards

and getting to the only legit questions posed by the Bruces:



An auctioneer does not have title to the items consigned to it but acts as agent for the titleholder in transferring title. Consequently, the assets in question are not assets of the auctioneer and should not be considered either an asset of a bankrupt's estate or an asset of the auctioneer for any other purpose.



1. If an auctioneer goes bankrupt, the court would establish a claims framework to allow the owners of the consigned materials to come forward and claim their stuff; my guess is a receiver and a claims application procedure. The court would preside over the process. It would take a while but if the items are there, valid and timely claims should be honored.



2. If an auctioneer goes BK after the auction, I am not sure of the disposition of the cash but I suspect that a similar answer applies. However, if the auctioneer stole some of the proceeds, the consignors would likely get only a pro-rata share of the remaining cash pool.



In either scenario in bankruptcy there would in all likelihood be a heck of a slap fight between the consignors and the other creditors of the auctioneer over ownership and it would definitely take some time before anyone saw any of their stuff or money.


Edited to add: Bankruptcy is all about priorities among creditors feasting on the bankrupt's carcass; the creditors form a "food chain" where the higher the class of creditor the more likely it is to recover. An unsecured general creditor (like the catalog designer who hasn't been paid yet for the work done on the next auction catalog) is the lowest form of life on that food chain; it gets the crumbs after everyone else has eaten. My unresearched hunch is that a consignor whose item is held by the auctioneer would fall into the top tier of creditors, akin to a secured creditor, but I haven't researched it yet.


3. If an auctioneer is indicted, it doesn't necessarily shut down--it would have to be convicted or subject to some sort of provisional remedy. It even might make sense for the auctioneer to run pending auctions under a receiver. If the government did shut it down, my assumption is that a receiver would be appointed to run the auctioneer's affairs and see that any property that wasn't its property would be returned to the owners. Again, it would take time and some work to get your stuff back.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Bruce,
Not to be rude but can you please adjust your computer so it types more on the lines ! Its very annoying reading your comments for 50 or so words and the post is 10 inches long. Thanks Bruce just a 2008 observation. As for 2009 we are all in the same boat lets just wait and see what happens! Only time will tell.

A quick note about spacing issues in posts. The Net54 s/w is doing that when a post is edited. You can still fix it manually but it's up to each poster to preview their post BEFORE hitting the respond button in order to know how it will look after it's posted. I know that many times I will go back and delete spaces in my posts, manually, upon the preview. This problem doesn't start with any poster, as it's a Net54 issue, but it can be easily fixed by deleting the spaces..and anyone can do that to their own post. best regards

Hi Leon,
Thankyou but maybe Im missing something Some of Bruces posts arnot edited but yet they still come up the same way. I see Barrys post was edited but it comes up the correct way. Why?

Adam

Great post- Thanks

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Bruce, you're not related to that Russian analyst who's predicting the US will have a civil war in 2010 are you?

Bruce,

I've actually enjoyed quite a few threads you've started. This one is a bit curious. I for one would not have to worry about my cards being seized because I have the butt ugliest collection of junk. Oh yeah, back to curious - if you really believe that the card market is going down then why is cash king?

http://www.network54.com/Forum/376259/thread/1230332384/last-1230588973/Cash+Is+King...

Ok, I agree, you were making a generalization and not basing this thread on cards that you are looking to buy. I kind of agree though, there could be a thaw in card prices because of the recent run up.

Does the possibility of card seizure concern you enough to halt or curtail your card buying?

Oh, oh, oh - Mr. Kotter, Mr. Kotter... a thought just occurred to me... perhaps, this possible threat of seizure may stop everyone from consigning to the auction houses and we'll see them all shut down because of this mass panic and hysteria you've just started... just kidding Bruce.

Can you please start a new thread that is inspiring and full of joy and cheer that will allow us to continue to view our world through our rose colored glasses, reality just sucks...

Unbelievable...





I completely agree with the assessment of the unfortunate present and dismal immediate future for our economy.





To a card collector this should be of minimal impact. I'd liken it to someone who was about to sell a home in once city, then buy a home in another, in a depressed housing market. Big deal if you get less for the house you're selling, because you'll be buying in a depressed market, too. So true collectors can keep on collecting. True collectors weren't accumulating cards to sell anyway. If anything, the economic turmoil might churn some old seldom seen cards out of safety deposit boxes and safes, and into the card market.





Now for card investors... all of the feared woe above may well pan out. I've opined here that cards aren't an investment. Some folks who thought they were may well rethink their position.


Sometimes law enforcement officers seize everything and let the prosecutors and courts sort things out. A consigned card should eventually make its way back to the consignor. Should... and it would take quite some time.


Some of my favorite cards are worth but a few dollars. And the dollar value that folks associate with them is less than a hundredth of other cards I have, of which I think less.





So for collectors, times may well be good.

Barry,

email sent.

But I do have a legal and a theoretical question:

The legal q -- is that if you want to protect yourself; can you put in a rider that in case of bankruptcy -- that you will be paid in full if said bankrupty occurs after an auction OR that if the bankruptcy occurs before the auction -- your item will be returned to you (no questions asked)

The theoretical q is this -- if you truly believe the auction house is going under -- why send them anything?

Please respond to the board on this -- I have limited access at times to my personal email

Regards
Rich

I retract my last post (thanks to Frank)...


CARDBOARD PANIC - 2009 - this is an "absolute certainty" - all card values will drop... your portfolios of cards will be worth 50% - 75% less than what you paid for them in the past few years. Get out NOW... SELL, SELL, SELL!!! There are collectors out there that will help lessen your pain... sell now before the celing is below your floor.....

Anthony- I'm always happy to get a friendly email from a good soul like yourself; but I get some wacky ones too, and some are rather nasty. Those are the ones that if I sense I don't want to see them I will delete them unread.

I have a big issue with the private emails and believe that if I say something on the board that a reader doesn't like, he should express his opinion in the same thread. That's my position and I'm sticking to it.

My comment & concern is the weather in Pasadena Jan. 1st. Will be there for the game, leaving Wed. morning.

WE ARE

I think we all know what the original post means. Bruce wants you to panic and sell your cards to him for rock bottom prices.

The answer is somewhat complicated, and very technical, but here's the short version ...

Generally speaking, while a "consignor" (e.g., a collector seeking to sell by placing a card with an auction house) technically retains title to the goods (cards) consigned to/with a "consignee" (e.g., the auction house), if the consignee (auction house) filed for Ch. 11 then the goods (cards) consigned become part of the bankrupt consignee's "estate", and would then be available to satisfy the debts owed to the consignee's secured creditors.

Therefore, if the consignor has not perfected its consignment security interest (by filing a UCC-1 in the right jurisdiction that identifies the goods he consigned), and the consignee (auction house) then goes bankrupt, the consignor is pretty much out of luck ... he is treated as an unsecured creditor by the bankruptcy court, and will probably get nothing if the consignee has any secured debt outstanding. The cards he consigned could be sold by the bankruptcy trustee to pay off the auctioneer's secured creditors first, such as a bank or other lender to the auction house that has an "all assets" type lien on the assets of the action house (assuming that the bank's lien has been "perfected" by filing UCC-1s, which is the case 99.9999% of the time).

[Disclaimer: I'm assuming that individual consignors to auction houses would be treated the same way that suppliers/consignors to other companies/manufacturers would be treated. For example, a supplier of grain to a food company would likely have filed UCC-1s to perfect its consignor's security interest in the grain it supplies from time to time to the food company, so that it would be compensated for the value of the grain being held by the food maker if/when the food maker filed for Ch. 11 protection.]


Note also that in bankruptcy, there is something worse than being an unsecured creditor -- "equity" is last in line, after secured creditors and unsecured creditors.

I recommend investing in fine art rather than baseball cards, given how terrible the world will be going forward...

Turn off the tv and go to work. They can't fix the problems. Dow is halfway to bottom and then there will be a L curve for growth. Say your prayers.

"Generally speaking, while a "consignor" (e.g., a collector seeking to sell by placing a card with an auction house) technically retains title to the goods (cards) consigned to/with a "consignee" (e.g., the auction house), if the consignee (auction house) filed for Ch. 11 then the goods (cards) consigned become part of the bankrupt consignee's "estate", and would then be available to satisfy the debts owed to the consignee's secured creditors."


Hey PC
Thanks for the response. So did this title "magically" transfer to the auction house? I am not a lawyer, by any means, but that sounds crazy. It doesn't seem like the title would change solely based on bankruptcy?.....take care

Raymond,
Very, VERY JEALOUS!!!!

...Penn State!!!!

Have a great time!

Lance

1. Under the Uniform Commercial Code, while consigned goods may be seized to pay the consignee's debts (making the consignor an unsecured creditor), one of the exceptions is when the consignee is generally known to be in the consignment sales business (like any auctioneer). The consignor is allowed to go into court and prove its title to the goods and get them back. If you are concerned, however, you would need to file a UCC-1 financing statement for maximum protection. Once the UCC-1 is properly filed, the consignor will hold a priority security interest with the same priority as a purchase-money secured creditor.



2. Most states have enacted laws that protect consignors from having their stuff taken and sold by the consignee's creditors in a variety of consignment circumstances. Depends on where the auctioneer is located.



3. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware recently held that consigned goods may not be sold to pay debts of the bankrupt absent evidence proving that such goods constitute property of the estate. In re Whitehall Jewelers Holdings, Inc., 2008 WL 2951974 (Bankr. D. Del. Jul. 28, 2008).





Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Good thing I collect for a hobby and fun vs an investment. Guess I will have to keep on buying.

Kmac

Bruce We think you're way off base

First of all our hobby and the collections within are not stock they are not gold and not land. The prices are not regulated per say by anyone and they never have a daily or general finite price or trade value. For the most part like it or not your collection is only worth what someone is willing to pay you at the time of sale regardless of economy.

Not saying stock cant go down or land cant take a dump. But if you go to sell stock today say Microsoft it will be bought at a certain value. Nobody's going to say its worth $19 a share how about I give you $15 and will call it even.

Cards trade up and down all the time Ive bought cards in good economies for great prices and I've bought similar cards in worse economies for more money. Cards are all over the place dont believe me look at how many posts over the years on this forum that say "did anyone else think this went really low?" These posts which I would bet there are a ton of date back years or more. Furthermore these discussions have been had for years in hobby circles well before our forum.

The only things baseball cards have is a ball park that most of the well traded examples sell within the truly rare are all over the place from cheap compared to mainstream cards to out of this world daddy needs Powerball money!

As for a great depression you and I had this discussion once before my first hollow threat of a lawsuit via email from you ahhhh memories

http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1205609405/last-1221775667/We+think+%93we%94+need+a+reality+check%21

Are we in for some tough times you bet but are we looking at another dust bowl no get real. Most American's wouldnt know true poverty and hard times if it sat on them. And I have poised this question to you once before if there was another Grapes of Wrath scenario around the corner are those affected really going to be concerned about their card collections or feeding their families.

As for big dollar items most folks that are buying Wagner's aren't really affected by economies sure they can lose money and be hit hard but it's all relative. Most of those folks in bad economy will now have only one Ferrari have to fly first class and sell the G series jet and only have to live with one or two homes. And these very folks will buy some great cards cheap due to older say regular collectors who may need some scrap to get by and who may part with prizes from his or her collections.

P.S. Bruce I caught the Ringer on TV the other night the one of the actors looks a little bit like you no joke see for yourself.

Consignments are indeed very tricky. Which is why most commercial suppliers file UCC-1s to protect their interests as consignors.

A supplier of grain or metal, whose grain or metal is likely mixed in with the same material from other suppliers at a particular factory, is aware of the need for an appropriate consignment agreement and that a UCC-1 needs to be filed. That's prudent, and in the ordinary course of their business. Of course, that is very different from a collector seeking to consign an SGC graded T206 Cobb to an auction house. No consignor is likely to file a UCC-1 in that case, and it might not be necessary (as Adam has pointed out).

But bankruptcy trustees and secured creditors have gone after stranger assets, in more questionable circumstances. I'd be a little hesitant to consign if I thought an auctioneer was in financial trouble (and how would you find that out -- it's not like an auctioneer is going to respond to your inquiries about their secured debt).

Why post that cards are going to fall 25-35% a few days after you post on the bst the following-is your investment standpoint to lose money because I have severe doubts the poster collects for the "fun" of it.


In these tough economic times, cash is king.

A great depression is just around the corner.

If you have ultra rare high grade pre WWII type cards that you
are willing to sell, we'll pay top market prices if
said items meet our standards and our needs.

Please send a list of what you have and your bottom
line asking price in confidence to

Bruce Dorskind
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

America's Toughest Want List

please see my email.
I'm only observing this time around but EVERY time I see that Brian Cat picture i nearly plotz....
Let's try and think more about others than ourselves in 2009......

Duly note that the auction houses don't own any of the consignments, and the consignments are not part of their assets. The consignor then the winner own the consignments. If the government seizes a for-a-fee downtown parking lot, the parking lot doesn't own the cars parked there and the government would allow car owners to take their cars.

If the government seizes a consignment auction house, it knows the consignments are going to have to be returned to the owners.

Bruce...you are an idiot. Your predictions weren't very bold as any economist or news buff could have predicted what you predicted...OK, let's say for argument's sake your predictions were bold...my answer to that is that the sun shines on a dog's ass every now and then.



I will predict that your prediction of a Depression will not occur. Quit scaring people as I read your post it was plainly obvious you have no clue. To make a claim such as this merely just shows your ignorance on the historical factors that led to the market crash in 29. I'll just leave it at that.



FWIW...Do you know the top two selling vehicles in the United States last year were both American trucks:



Ford F-150 ... over 470,000 sold last year alone.

Chevrolet Silverado... came in 2nd at 430,000.



I hope this little fact above doesn't hurt you on your journey of trying to acquire vintage cards on bargain basement prices...who knows, maybe you'll get lucky and the auto industry will crash and millions of americans will lose their jobs...you keep always say a prayer every night hoping this occurs.

John,

Bruce is not an idiot. However, he can be little eccentric and different.

Bruce raised a good issue with this post. I seems that the prudent consignor would:



1. Request a cash advance for as high a percentage of the consignments retail value as possible (just in case the **** hits the fan).



2. Make certain you know what value your consignment is insured for while in the auction house's possession. There should be an insurance policy with a known company--self insurance should be a non-starter.



3. Avoid consigning to auctions that are a long way off. The market can change and once consigned you can not get your lots back because the market is not where you thought it would be. More time equals more uncertainty.



I'm sure the list could be expanded and improved but these are just a few thoughts.

and John, with all due respect, Bruce is anything but an idiot.

Dear John

We wonder where your economic wisdom emanates from.

Did you also attend two Ivy League universities?

How many books have you written?

How much research have you undertaken on rare baseball cards?

You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Bruce's first ever 'Dear John' letter. Yea!

If one is a collector it does not matter, prices go up
down, sideways etc. Collectors are in for the long run.

Now if one is strictly an investor then he/she may have a problem.


Steve

"You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind"

Why is this crap tolerated on this board? Utterly childish.

Greg

Greg--I think you need to start with John calling Bruce an idiot; that started the tit for tat.

I like applesauce.

Bruce,

WHY?

Let's be real here for a second... it's gonna be a bad year. 2009 will be one to forget when all is said and done.

Will it be a Depression like the 30's? No.
But it will be the worst thing since.
Now take a deep breath. The economy will not take as long to recover as in the past.

Bruce would never write this though because it's obvious he sees the long term value in Cardboard. But fear not... he's ready to pounce on those in need and take advantage (see the BST).

While I appreciate Bruce's knowledge on the Hobby and his intellect on certain subjects, I find his posts of late to be that of a vulture-like terrorist. Spreading panic on the regular board and trying to reap the benefits on the BST.

Best of luck to you Bruce. You're kinda like a high end Mr. Mint lately.

"Why is this crap tolerated on this board? Utterly childish.

Greg"


It is tolerated because I/we (there are 3 of us) have given hours and hours of thought to moderating the board and the best thing is to let folks, that aren't being anonymous, say what they want to, per the rules. Otherwise, we would never get to know their character, or lack of. It would be a very stale place if it were "overly" moderated/censored....take care

Dear Dave

Four Points:

1) We truly believe the economy will go into a depression. We hope we are not
correct, but we see (others may disagree) that there is a strong sign of a depression


2) The main purpose of this post was to address the issue of what happens to a consignor
if an auction house is prosecuted by the Government or files for bankruptcy.
We received some excellent, highly professional responses to this query.


3) Those who care to attack us, make fun or call us names can expect us to attack back.
You may disagree- but Dear John and later another person raised the issue. We have every
right to respond as strongly and as directly as we deem appropriate.


4) With regard to our BST Posts- we have been running the same posts for more than 4 years.
In 2008 we bought 20 different items from BST- some were at low prices- some were at record
high prices. Whilst we are marketers by training, we are not attempting to scare the marke
into selling. The 10 offers we received from our most recent post resulted in nine turn downs
and one sale. The items we turned down were fairly priced...they simply did not fit onto our want list.


We do not buy for resale. The average type card we own has been part of our collection for
eight years.


Regards and Happy New Year!


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

I hear you Bruce. There were several good responses to your original post and the question you posed is a valid one... but when you start a thread called "Hobby Panic in 2009" and not "Federal Involvement in Auction Houses"... you're fear mongering. Couple that up with your post on the BST of "Cash is King"... and my take is that you're working both sides of the plate (so to speak). And that's where I drew the comparisons to Mr Mint.

Maybe more accurate thread titles would cause less of a stir down the line. Just my opinion.
I think we're all in agreement 2009 is going to be bad, very bad. Lets hope you're wrong about the depression part though and let's think positive.

For those of you not nauseated by the topic already, I'd be happy to give anyone a quick primer on bankruptcy law as it relates to auction houses (not very much unlike a "self-storage" facility that goes under, by analogy, a case I actually handled in Virginia). Simply put, no trustee or creditor can grab property of a bankrupt auction house in satisfaction of the debts of the bankrupt auction house. The Bankruptcy Courts only have jurisdiction over property in which the debtor (the bankrupt auction house) has a recognized legal interest in the asset in question. As a non-tile holder, and mere possessor of another's goods, the auction house has no legal title or interest in the consignor's goods, even if they are in the auction house's possession. (In other words, as was pointed out above, consignors' goods have to be affirmatively shown to be legally owned by the auction house in some fashion before the goods would be considered part of the bankruptcy "estate" and be subjected to Bankruptcy Court administration.)

No, no "bankruptcy clause" in a consignment contract would be valid, or enforced, but it wouldn't be necessary as long as it is clear that title, in whole or in part, fully or for collateral purposes only, does not pass to the auction house (most consignment contracts I have seen make this very clear, since, with ownership, comes liability).

And, no, it wouldn't be much of a slap fight (although there are bankruptcy lawyers I'd pay to see to have a slap fight). It would take a motion made on behalf of one or more consignors for "turnover" of "non-estate" property, and would likely take 30-60 days before a Bankruptcy Court would hear the motion and rule on it. Not knowing any more than this, I'd guess there is a 95+% chance of a consignor winning this motion without much of a fight.

Once the consigned goods are sold and paid for, though, its a little different. Now, the auction house holds the consignors' money in trust. However, that trust can be and usually is technically violated when the auction house commingles all of the consignors' proceeds with its own general operating money, making it impossible to identify a particular deposit into that account distinct from any other deposit. In such a case, the commingling will probably result in no "turnover" of "non-estate" property to the consignors, since you can no longer specifically identify the dollars in the general operating account attributable to the proceeds of the consignor's particular sale. Then, there might be a LIFO/FIFO sort of accounting, but that usually fails when it comes to money in a bankruptcy case, and the unpaid consignors are relegated to mere creditors, and unsecured creditors at that (the next to lowest on the food chain -- shareholders in the auction house are actually the lowest form of bankruptcy pond scum). If by some miracle the auction house segregates (physically segregates, like in a separate account, or bank, or state) the consignment proceeds from any and every other money it holds, then some accounting of how to divvy up what is in that account would protect the consignors. In other words, the best protection for consignors is to be sure that, after a sale, the auction house physically segregates the consignors' portion of the proceeds of sales, and accounts for it separately from all other money coursing through the auction house.

As for 2009 and 2010, the fact is that more crappy real estate is going to collapse -- the 60 Minutes story hit it on the head. Alt-A's and Option Arms are coming due in the next 12-24 months, and that almost guarantees further suppression of realty prices and liquidity, and thus the "ground up" theory of economic recovery is almost certainly stymied through that period. With businesses failing due to collapsing markets, and the failure of financial institutions to put the TARP money out on the street in new or refinanced loans, and the coming second swell of real estate setbacks, things will likely not improve much, if at all, through 2010, and will probably step back, perhaps not hugely, but most likely at least somewhat. I don't see any real change for the man on the street until late 2010 or 2011, and I have never seen it as bad as it is right now (in almost 30 years of bankruptcy practice). Unemployment is going to rise, realty prices soften, interest rates remain so low as to dissuade investment, etc., so 2011 may be the first real glimmer of recovery light.

Its not doom and gloom. I'm on the front lines here, and I see it everyday in the faces of the people I interview as prospective clients -- things are bad, going to get just as bad for many more people, and for others it will get far worse, and no one foresees any real change anytime in the next two years. Maybe we're all wrong, but I doubt it.

The likelihood of a depression IMO is extremely unlikely. Are any respected economists predicting such an occurrence? I believe in time we will witness how resiliant the US economy is, especially as the benefits of much lower oil prices filter through. In the meantime, for my nickel, I believe current purchases of many kinds of ultra-rare high-quality memorabilia or cards (though with cards, not condition rarities but actual rarities) will prove to be prudent investments.

Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
[aloud]
Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!

The panic-mongers in general are overstating the case for their own selfish reasons, whether they are political, pragmatic or simply malicious fun. As far as the motivation behind this thread, methinks the Dorskind Group dost protest too much. Actions speak volumes. He runs "In these tough economic times, cash is king. A great depression is just around the corner" as an advertisement one day and then posts a discussion about the "Hobby Panic in 2009" the next? Puh-leese, if that course of conduct was any more transparently self-serving it would be made of saran wrap. Besides, savvy operator that he is, if Bruce really believed that a great depression was imminent, then he would know that cards would continue to decline in value and he would be waiting for the other shoe to drop before offering to buy more cards.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Bruce- I think you are full of baloney. Have some faith bro.

Casablanca...

It's time for your medication, Bruce(s).

Bruce...i can answer your question. In 2003 a major auction house declared bankruptcy in Washington Dc. That auction house would be compared to Sotheby's of New York. They owed consignors and also estates millions of dollars. The clients were never compensated and anyone who consigned to Sloan's was not allowed to bid on any items while the bankruptcy was going on in fear they would not pay for the items due to the fact money was owed to them. The auction house was then bought by new ownership in 2004 but only the name was purchased and not the debt. The people still have not been payed back nor will they ever be. If a auction house goes bankrupt after selling your cards or antiques then you basically are done unless there is tangible assets. In the case of Sloan's the building was leased and the company owned nothing. My advice to anyone who feels a auction house or company is questionable then sell your goods on sites like this where you control your destiny.

Because the root of the problems is gone!

Bruce..here's your original comment:



"Many of our posts reflect our strong belief that the US will face



a depression between 2009-2012"



Based on what? Do you know what a Depression is? Do you know what factors led to the stock market crash in 1929? What, specifically do you see occuring on the economic front in the next 2-3 years that is going to result in a Depression?



Let me give you a hint why I think you're an idiot. It wouldn't be a US-only Depression...it would be a worldwide depression, not just the US.



You are able to routinely backup your comments about vintage card prices or cards in general with facts. Therefore, you are making what is called an argument, to which one can agree or disagree. With me so far?



Now the comment above on the other hand, doesn't even constitute an argument. It is childish and immature to say the least.

Not to nitpick, John, but I wouldn't say Bruce "routinely" backs up his comments (about cards, collectibles, the Yankees, sports in general, etc.) with facts. To the contrary, often the information he presents as "fact" gets disproven by folks willing to do the research.

Dear Bruce

I don't wonder where John's economic wisdom emanates from.

I don't care if John attend two Ivy League universities.

I don't care how many books John has written?

I don't know how much research John may have undertaken on rare baseball cards?

I do know that John doesn't refer to himself with the royal "we", which indicates he is dealing from far stronger sense of reality that you. Your continued use of plural self references and affectations in your posts says far more about you as a human being than you realize.

I do know that your "You sound particularly bitter for someone with such a small mind " comment is incredibly ironic considering your history, both here and what has been revealed in your background.

Grow up, you spoiled little brat.

the messiah has come........all will be well. Nothing can possibly go wrong now.......

Glad to see you're coming around, Tom.

Interesting Mr. Boblitt

I wonder if I am thinking along the same lines you are?

yep......I'm convinced, Bruce must be Mormon.

Jason

Frank L and others....I don't think we can have any anonymity, in this thread, so if you aren't well known by your login, then you need to put a good first and last name along with a good email address with your post. I/we (smiley) appreciate your support on that matter . Please don't take this as a "squelch" of any speech except what it is meant to be......best regards


ps...Frank- I realize this is sort of a private board but I still believe in free speech as much as possible ....

Your secret world government reminds you to remain calm; all is well. Nevermind those black helicopters...

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Hello Leon

Sorry, not trying to be anonymous. I am Frank Lastra(flastra@tampabay.rr.com). New to speaking on the forum for the last few weeks. I reside near Tampa, Florida.

Sincerely

Frank L.

Anybody receive their winnings from Memory Lane yet or have they gone under in the last two weeks (in which case for me it's gonna be the Panic of 2008 )?

Hey, Bruce...

How many books have you written? I haven't been able to find any written by a "Bruce Dorskind." Did you use a nom de plume? (Or perhaps, noms?)

I'm looking for a good read, and someone who's attended two--count 'em, two--Ivy League schools must have written a winner. (Or two, or...)

In all seriousness (I couldn't resist the gentle poke, Tom ), I think the recession will bottom out and things will get better during 2009, both for the nation and for our hobby. Besides, if prices for cards continue to fall the hobby will not suffer, the investors will cringe but the collectors will continue with business as usual.

Very interesting topics Bruce. In my opinion, the hobby was stronger before Mastro, REA, PSA etc. ever existed. I really do not think I would care at all if 70%-90% of the auction companys and 50%-75% of the grading companies ceased to exist. There are too many of both of these that exist currently. A very hypercompetitive market. For gods sakes, we do not need 12 auction companys and 4 grading services.

I would collect if cards were worthless. That is essentially how they were when I started. I am all for some plumeting prices. Just hope I am in a postion to reap the benefits of cheaper prices. That is my biggest concern.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ dorskind ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Wake me up when this thread is over!!!!!! ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

edited in a page break.

Bruce,

What do you do for a living? I apologize in advance if this has been stated in the past.

ladies and gentlemen...i emplore you...in these times of economic crises and spiritual wasteland...to donate all of your baseball card worldly possesions to me.....Maharishi Yogi Berra....bless each and everyone of you

Dave- is that a real underground comic or is it photoshopped? MAD's tagline was of course "humor in a jugular vein."

I wonder if Bruce has ever realized that the items in his collection will long outlive him. The precious pieces of cardboard that once made him feel superior to others will at some point in the future will be held by others when Bruce is 6 ft. under (or however he spends eternity), and that he will not be remembered for the items he once owned but for the person he once was, in which case he won't be remembered well.

I've been collecting cards off and on for almost 25 years now (sorry it's not longer gang, but I'm only 33), and take great pride and joy in my collection. With any luck, I'll be collecting cards for another 50 + years. One thing I learned early on though is that we only hold the cards for a period of time before they move on to the next collector, either by choice, opportunity, or passing. Should something happen to me tomorrow, my collection will be given to my niece and nephew (or more correctly, to their parents for safe keeping for now) should they decide they want to collect. If they don't, then there will be instructions on whom to contact to have the collection liquidated, with the proceeds going to a trust for the 2 of them. Either way, I'll be happy with what happens with my collection. I doubt Bruce can say (or has even thought of) the same.

If bruce's collection goes into a museum...his name will live on...and on...and on...maybe the museum will have some sound bites of Bruce's commentary on his collection...and life in general...wouldn't that be something!

I think talking about Bruce whether positively or negatively is exactly what Bruce craves. I would like to see a moratorium on all things Bruce.

I prefer not to give him the satisfaction, but sometimes you have to say what you think.

Sean



We have never met nor are we ever likely to meet

Thus you have no business commenting on what we do
with and/or how we manage our collection



Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

....real EC comic, sister publication to MAD. The first issue got banned in Boston and it was downhill from there. The story is here if you are interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_(comic)

Thanks Dave.

Bruce- please do me a favor and don't say things like that on the board. It's really unnecessary. Thank you, and happy New Year.

Still waiting to hear about your book(s), Bruce.

Your silence speaks volumes.

(Pun intended.)

When you go out and talk about your collection the way you do, others are going to comment about it in response. In this case, I'm choosing to comment about what will happen to your collection in the future when you are no longer around to enjoy it.

Me too. Unfortunately, the moratorium needs to start with the Group, which needs to stop posting in ways that make its members look like horses' patoots. Remember, regime change starts at home...

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

As many of you know, more than a year ago, the government

predicted that the Dow would fall below 7500 and

that several major investment banks would go bankrupt.

Many of the government's posts reflect the government's strong belief that the Dorskind Group will face

a depression between 2009-2012. Baseball card prices, with some

notable exceptions are likely to fall- perhaps as much as 25%-35%

A number of auction houses will close because collectors will stop selling.

However, there is a strong possibility that a far more tragic scenario

will develop.

For argument sake, let the government assume the announced Dorskind Group investigation

into price manipulation and alteration of cards moves ahead rapidly and there

are formal Indictments.

Let's all assume the Dorskind Group decides to seize all the property of the auction

houses and or grading services that has been indicted.

What is the position of the consignor with regard to items seized by the Dorskind Group?

If the he or she has received an advance, do they have to return it?

How can he or she get his cards back?

Is there any insurance available that will protect collectors or consignors?

If and when this "perfect storm" occurs, how will impact the future of the

hobby?

The purpose of this post is not to argue the state of the economy and/or

how bad things are likely to get, but rather to raise the question of how

is the collector protected when and if an auction house



(a) Is indicted by the Dorskind Group and property is seized?

(b) Auction house closes its doors before an auction is completed

and said auction house has consignments from collectors.



Our hobby must prepare for a worse case scenario- who knows, our own

version of Bernie Madoff could be on the Board as we speak.



Best wishes for the New Year!

The Government

America's Toughest Want List

BRAVO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holy cow JL, you're way ahead of me... I think I've got to be a keg behind you buddy... I'll read that post again in an hour after I've started to catch up to you...

"The blood bath is coming. It's just around the corner."
-- Discharge

To change the tone of this thread slightly, We for two am looking forward to a great 2009. Our area has not be hit by the housing problems the rest of country has faced. The larger and local banks did not grant morgages to people that could not afford them and we see no one losing their houses because of it. Construction in our area is booming and the work force is in place. Although we did see our stocks tumble by 30%, we as arm pit collectors, but good investors never put more than 10% of our assets in one place or in one stock. Where we see a tumble in one area we have seen a rise in others.
We (as in the BEG ) think that this is the perfect time to place our money in stocks that are under valued and cards or other collectibles that will surely retain their value if times continue to be tough. We are in the midst of purchasing a major piece to add to our growing collection, but it will not be baseball hobby related. We feel that the best option is to find the best value for our dollar in any investment. If others continue to predict doom and gloom we will be happy to help in this situation by purchasing and keep the economy on an even keel. While others are selling we intend to buy heavily at prices that will make both the seller and the buyer happy. I will say that times will continue to be tough, but we are not heading for a depression. We will see a turn around by the 3rd quarter of 2009 and if everyone keeps their heads we shall pull out of it just fine. The panic is caused by emotion and emotion has no place in business or the market. The key is to buy low and sell high and emotion takes over and people panic and dump their assets at very low prices. We intent to look for the best stocks at this time and buy, buy, buy.
I hope eveyone that has the assets and disposible income looks at this time as a great opportunity to expand their wealth and collections.

We as the BEG wish everyone a very Happy New Year and we hope you all obtain the cards on your want lists.



In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

so where's the apocalypse?

"As far as the economy goes....It sucks...will continue sucking for a lot of '09 and then hopefully will get better. Even though I didn't vote for Obama I do have confidence in him....best regards"

Agree 100% Leon. I did not vote for Obama either, but I back him. I think he will bring excitemeht and vitality to the nation. He does have a tough job ahead of him and it will take time. Hoepfully when he steps in later this month we will see start to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Like him or not, he is our president. I certainly hope everyone gives him a fair chance.

I heard that he pals around with terrorists.

David-

David: I usually stay out of these non-card threads but not this time. Count me as one more of the offended. An American named Jason gets to hear alot of ignorant commentary in one lifetime. Your aside about Obama's background ranks right up there. What the hell does his being ethnically mixed have to do with anything, especially terrorism. Have it any way you want. Maybe you are prejudiced, maybe not. I don't know. But, man, you are insensitive. Your subsequent comments, your wriggling logic, continue to offend. I really hope you are not so thick that you are unable to understand what I am trying to tell you (which is that your dumbass comment wasn't welcome).

Jason

I heard he isn't even American and he pals around with corrupt governors. At least that is what the spin machine tells me.

I heard he pals around with terrorists AND smokes cigarettes.

Ok, I admit it: I'm prejudiced and I just said those awful things in order to induce a race war. Damn.

LOL.......I am just ribbing Dave from the Ebay post the other day. If you read what I wrote I actually pasted and edited his own text. Kind of like the pot calling the kellte black. At any rate I am from IL and didn't even vote for Obama. I KNOW how corrupt that state is and the governor there is a real dousche, as are many of the politicians there. I live in MO now and only miss my family. Anyway.....only time will tell, but the state of our country is out of the hands of our president elect anyway. It's like the beginnings of a large avalanche and we are still at the top. I do support him, however, and hope that they can figure something out, but until the greed and corruption is dealt with, it will only get worse. As far as baseball cards, I really cannot see the prices plummeting. I think its actually a great time to buy with everyone "panic-stricken".

David MCD: Enjoy the post and don't take my comeback personally.

We predict that out next president will perform 150% better than anyone expects. We also think that if anything goes wrong in his administration it will look badly for a large % of the American population. Seeing this downside he will become a great leader. America needs a SMART man running the country. It will take a SMART man to turn the USA around. Look forward to an administration that is both respected and feared by the rest of the world.
Turning the economy and bringing our boys home will be a good start.
He is our President and he deserves a chance to make it work.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Good call on the market Bruce and another interesting post. The board would be a lot less interesting without your contributions. disregard the naysayers--many of whom never write anything of interest and keep up the posts.

Count me among those who hopes Obama fails miserably and socialism is thoroughly discredited as a way to run any country.

Nice one Jim. Obama fails miserably? Kind like you last joke of a president help your portfolio and your job situation. Hoping that Obama fails is hoping America fails. You got your wish with the mindless 80 IQ Bush. Now maybe Mexico is the next place you should reside if you hope America fails. Next time you go to push the respond button, just push delete.

Next time you have a thought, just let it go.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

joe,

Same advice to you--delete is a good choice.

Obama succeeds-America takes long turn to the left. You may like this but I don't. I think an activist government, high taxes, high spending and an increasing influence of the loony left is bad for the country.

Bush never stood up to the radical left and restrained government spending. He did do the right thing on taxes though and has done a great job fighting terrorism.

Happy New Year,

Jim

There goes Jim C. playing the socialism card again.

Hi Jim, hope you had a good holiday.

Left or right if you are wishing for the American president to fail you are wishing for America to fail and you are not a good American.

Period.

Barry,

Same to you--just back from vacation. See some things don't change,. Bruce makes another good post, people obsess over his style and the liberals come out and praise Obama.

On the new news side, just got Joe Orlando's book in the mail and it certainly looks very impressive.

The only "thought" Crandell has ever had, Joe, goes something like this:

"Think I'll resubmit those cards to PSA. Yeah. That's just what I'll do."

Dan,



Not so--I want Obama to fail so America can succeed. America will never move back toward greatness led by the most liberal person in the Senate. The only route we have is Obama failing and repubs making major strides in the Senate in 2010 and winning the presidency in 2012.



Period and exclamation point.



Jim

And the loony asst prof comes out again in 2009.

You're going to have to find a Wayback Machine if you think the Republicans need to win the presidency in 2008.

Bush never stood up to the radical left and restrained government spending. He did do the right thing on taxes though and has done a great job fighting terrorism.

Huh? What job did he do. Dropped a few bombs on Afganistan and let Bin Laden slip through his fingers while he went on a witch hunt for WMD's. All the while we are spending $10 Billion a month in a country we have no business being in and young Americans are dying everyday. He learned nothing from Vietnam.

No Jim, I didn't make the statement that you wanted our next President to fail, you did. Bush will go down in history among the worst of the worst President's ever and the party he represents is a joke, filled with corrupt politician only hoping to line their own pockets.

Whatever Obama does he cannot ever fail as badly as our last joke in office. The government will not change over night and your idea of government is not the plan for our next America. For such as intelligent man as you are you make some very offensive statements. I cannot believe you would back a party that effected you like this last party did. I will not make this a personal thread, but I do believe I am not alone in thinking that if wish America to fail you should delete your post and keep it to yourself. If you can add something constructive with your knowledge of money and finance, I'm all ears.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Jim, there are four glaring errors in your post above.

See if you can find them.

I got news for you Jim, I have voted Republican for 30 years. Only the last 2 elections did I see this writing on the wall. If only you would have seen the writing on the wall 4 years ago, you might have seen the fall that I predicted and changed you financial plan accordingly.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Obama is NOT Muslim!.....He is Mormon.

Jason

Boy is it time to lock this thread and move on!

I think that anyone who hopes the Obama administration fails should be ashamed of himself. If the incoming administration fails, we ALL fail. Wishing otherwise for the nation is disgraceful. Even after he stole the elections in 2000 and 2004 I never hoped that right-wing fascist scumbag would screw things up like this.



Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Sorry Joe--don't wish bad things for my country but will actively work to support causes that are against what the Socialist believes in.

Bush has done an excellent job fighting terrorism. Not one major attack on our soil since 9/11 and many foiled. This will be his legacy and one can only hope that Obama is as vigilant as Bush in fighting terrorism.

Joe, I did not see your post from four years ago or for that matter Bruces 1 year ago but since you are such great predictors of the future why don't you get togerther with him and make your predictions for 2009. I think you would make an interesting team.

Cheers,

Jim

Socialism would definitely be short term "fix" and ultimately the Kiss of Death. Hopefully Obama is smarter than what he seems and will avoid such destructive measures. Even though I didn't vote for him, I do support him and am willing to give him a chance. As for Bush, no doubt he did some positive things in protecting us here. I do not agree, however, 100% with all policies under his administration. If we want to pinpoint the disaster of the economy we need to look deeper in the Clinton administration, even though corruption on wall street was already moving forward earlier than that. If Bush would go down as one of the worst, then we must assume Clinton to be vying for the cellar. How did we get so bent on politics and religion anyway?


Jason

Jim, If you read all the post and not just a selected few you will see that I made a prediction of the upcoming year. I will cut and paste it again for you. I also said in the beginning of 2008 that the stock market was overpriced and we were heading to another downturn like that of the dot.com crash. I did not predict it to be this bad, but I did alter my portfolio to protect myself. I saw that my company stock was way over priced and diverified with the profits. We went from $65 a share to our current $40. Although I did lose on the current shares I own, I never paid more than $37 a share so in that aspect I never had the money, so I didn't lose it. the worth just decreased.
As far as you hoping America doesn't fail, I am glad to here it. If Bush's only legacy is we weren't attacked by a foreign country, he joins 40+ other President's with that distinction. Good job Duba. While he played with his tanks in Iraq, New Orleans sunk farther into the Gulf. How in our modern times does a President let 1000 Americans die in our own Country and then sit idle while nothing is being done in this country to help their plight? If you feel he has a legacy lets go to his Library.

The George W. Bush Presidential Library is now in the planning stages.

The Library will include:

The Hurricane Katrina Room, which is still under construction.

The Alberto Gonzales Room, where you won't be able to remember anything.

The Texas Air National Guard Room, where you don't even have to show up.

The Walter Reed Hospital Room, where they don't let you in.

The Guantanamo Bay Room, where they don't let you out.

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Room, which no one has been able to find.

The National Debt Room which is huge and has no ceiling.

The 'Tax Cut' Room with entry only to the wealthy

The 'Economy Room' which is in the toilet.

The Iraq War Room. After you complete your first tour, they make you go back for a second, third, fourth, and sometimes a fifth time.

The Dick Cheney Room, in the famous undisclosed location, complete with
shotgun gallery.

The Environmental Conservation Room, still empty.

The Supreme Court's Gift Shop, where you can buy an election.

The Airport Men's Room, where you can meet some of your favorite Republican Senators

The 'Decider Room' complete with dart board, Magic 8-ball, Ouija board, dice, coins, and straws.

The museum will also have an electron microscope to help you locate the President's accomplishments.






In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Jim, Here is my prediction from an earlier post:

I will say that times will continue to be tough, but we are not heading for a depression. We will see a turn around by the 3rd quarter of 2009 and if everyone keeps their heads we shall pull out of it just fine. The panic is caused by emotion and emotion has no place in business or the market. The key is to buy low and sell high and emotion takes over and people panic and dump their assets at very low prices. We intent to look for the best stocks at this time and buy, buy, buy.


In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Good stuff Joe--I hope you are right about the market.

Happy New Year.

Jim

Jim, Happy New Year to you also.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

"Left or right if you are wishing for the American president to fail you are wishing for America to fail and you are not a good American.

Period"

Hilarious post -- no doubt coming from someone who laughed when Bush had two shoes thrown at him.

Hey Jeff follow the link and read my post in this usenet thread from 12/15 and then you can issue me a public apology.

http://tinyurl.com/7cjx37

just in case you don't feel like clicking the above link here is exactly what I wrote about the shoe thrower.

"Okay...Bush screwed up the exit plan for this war for sure...we prolly
never should have gone in there to begin with, but it's a bit ironic
for a journalist to throw shoes at his liberator.

At least he can write about it without fear of going to the torture
chamber."

Dan, that's good to know. Public apology? Good luck.

Would you agree that the great majority of liberals laughed their asses off at the shoe throwing incident? Are you suggesting that all of those millions of people who voted Democratic are not good Americans because they laughed at Bush?

Well if not an apology at least you could admit you were wrong about me???

Maybe not. It's easy to assume things about people you only know from the internet...and there's a big difference between laughing at Bush and rooting for him to fail and I don't deny that there are liberals who openly rooted for Bush to fail. I was not one of them. I'm an American first and Democrat second. I never have and never will wish failure for America.

Hello

I am fairly new to the forum. I am happy that we have both sides of the political spectrum represented.

To lay it out there, I am a primary care physician north of the Tampa Bay Area. I have collected cards since about 1971. I got into prewar in the 1980's. I am conservative but understand points on both sides.

I believe it is good to have opposing sides give their opinion so that we may come somewhere in the middle. I do not hope Obama fails, but I hope he is a centerist. I believe extremism left will certainly hurt this country. I also believe as would most conservatives, right extremism is also not good.

This thread makes me think of my office. My partner is hard left. We may disagree about alot of things, but we are in the end, friends and still go for the good.

It looks like this forum is certainly like that, alot of friends, though alot of differing opinion.

This is a very interesting thread by Bruce. What holds for us, who really knows?

I hope it is an oportunity to buy more stuff I have always wanted.


Sincerely

Frank L.

Jim must be pretty flexible to get his head that far up his ass.

Hey Guys, Happy New Year. I've been a lurker for what seems like a thousand years. Thanks in advance for allowing me to join the conversation. I'd like to share my viewpoint on what I feel is a crucial thread and respectable town forum.

Without a doubt, we are amidst a very unique geo-political and geo-economic time. Fear is rampant worldwide. Here in the US, discomfort is at an all time high.
As a registered investment advisor and FINRA appointed Registered Principal, I am on the frontlines of the economy. Fortunately, we're independently affiliated with the most solvent insurance based firm in the business. However, the news isn't good for most and will likely continue in some fashion until 2011, possibly all the way towards 2015. Here's why-

1. Investments have either evaporated (this time affecting many upper 2%'s due to investments in derivatives and Bernie Madoff fallout) or have dropped between 30-50% on average within the equity markets over the past year.

2. Nationwide leveraging in both corporate and personal capacities. Capitulation is likely to occur between 2010 and 2011. Corporations will be unable to refinance debt obligations and millions of homeowners will see their option-arm mortgages implode.

3. TARP money is likely to be ill-appropriated. Some executive players (i.e. Krause with Merrill Lynch) will be teflon, while others may be indicted. This will again create fear and an unwillingness to trust Wall Street as we know it. Recently, FOX News sued the government on a 'freedom of information act' claim. They petitioned for a public record accounting of these monies. So far, no dice. It's not looking good at this point. The average taxpayer is likely to be individually responsible for $5k-10k of their income to fund these mysterious bailouts.

4. Bernie Madoff is essentially the Jesse James of investments; the crook of all crooks. He is responsible for a generational wealth gap that in most cases in unrecoverable. The headlines alone are enough to discourage most of the nation from investing heavily in the equity markets. Hedge funds will likely shrink in number once redemptions are possible. They will have to unravel their portfolios, which may possibly produce other ponzi-schemes.

5. There will be a new generation of broke senior citizens like we've never seen before. Even when the equity markets were performing well, there was concern that most boomers hadn't saved enough and were over-extended. Fast forward several years and you'll find that they are leveraged to the hilt and whatever they had saved has lost a dramatic amount of principal.

Imagine a 55 year old with a $500k 401k balance who wants to retire and take distribution by age 70. If the investor acheives a 6% annual return, he will have $1.275 million when he needs to turn it into income. Based on a 6% distribution rate, that equates to approximately $72,500 of lifetime income. However, the reality is an absolute 'double negative.' First of all, investments are likely to either have flat or dismal returns over that time horizon. Combine that with higher income needs and the fact that people are living longer than ever...and you've got a serious wealth crisis amongst the elderly. They will essentially run out of money because their distributions will outpace their returns.

So....Bruce isn't that far off on his predictions.

I do see a silver lining and ultimate rebirth of the economic system when this has all flushed out. It will likely create a tremendous bull market for those who participate and more responsibility through proper regulation.

Now...when it comes to cards (whew!!), protected wealth will likely support pricing because the market for premium examples is thinly traded. People like Bruce and myself will hopefully be able to participate in fractional bargains because we see value. High end cards are truly tangible and in most cases have better name recognition and headline capacity than most fine art and other high end collectables. (antique furniture, non-gold coins and others)

I've been buying nice cards lately between $400 and $5000 at deep discounts to their respective peaks. I've participated for over 20 years because it is a sentimental investment, and a valuable part of my financial portfolio. From my perspective, Generation X'ers like myself will assimilate better towards fine art of the Mantle,Mays,Cobb,Ruth genre than Picasso,Matisse,Hockney kind of old.

The 'right' cards will continue to rise in value due to simple supply and demand during these tough times. Bottom feeders will pick up discounts and their will be a flight to quality within all portfolio fundamentals.

Be safe in 2009 and hug your loved ones. They are your most prized possessions.

Hopefully, I'll have time to contribute in the coming year.

Best,
Matt

"High end cards are truly tangible and in most cases have better name recognition and headline capacity than most fine art and other high end collectables."

Absolute poppycock.

"However, the news isn't good for most and will likely continue in some fashion until 2011, possibly all the way towards 2015."

Nonsense again.

"Bernie Madoff is essentially the Jesse James of investments; the crook of all crooks. He is responsible for a generational wealth gap that in most cases in unrecoverable. The headlines alone are enough to discourage most of the nation from investing heavily in the equity markets."

If "most of the nation" will be discouraged from investing in plans that promise a 20% return almost guaranteed, good. As W.C. Fields so aptly put it, "You can't cheat an honest man."

It's very interesting to see people putting their party before their country, yet continuing to think that they are good Americans. Guess that Kool-Aid is tough to get out of the system.



During the Bush years, I don't think many liberals actively wanted W to fail; we were just embarrassed at how much of an abysmal failure he was and angry over the repeated denials, spin, and outright lies made by his administration. History will not be kind to him, nor to those that enabled and supported him.

As for the shoe throwing; the American in me was appalled and angered that something like that could happen to our sitting president. The personality in me was disappointed that they didn't hit, and even more disappointed in W's response to the attack, which showed how utterly clueless he really is.

I don't think anybody can insight more turbulance (sp?) and fury on the board with each and every post....except for, uhh, I think Leon got rid of the other Peter C., right?

...Let there be peace on Earth or absolute chaos....whatever.

Mathew, Extremely well thought out and interesting post.

"High end cards are truly tangible and in most cases have better name recognition and headline capacity than most fine art and other high end collectables."

But, This is a statement that you might want to retract. Baseball collectors are .0000000000000001% compared to the Art collecting world. If just one fine art collector decided to collect baseball cards and aggresively buy with their income, not one card would ever fall into your hands, Bruces or Jim's hands again. If he let one slip through it would be 100x's what you would be willing to pay. Our national sport has been around for 100 years. Collecting fine art has been around for a bit longer.

I do believe the name Rembrandt is more well known in this world than Wagner. We have one collectible worth over $1M while lesser known works of less famous artists reach this figure daily. To think your baseball collection will be valued more than museum pieces can not be coming from a person offering any sound financial advice.

As for the doom and gloom statement till 2015, don't hold your breath. Investors will be scooping up bargains and bolstering a slumping market with fresh money. Stocks at a bargain price will not sit their un bought. There will always be someone selling and someone looking to buy. Look for a turn around sooner than you think.

As for the crooks. Their have been crooks since the beginning of time and they will be exposed and the scheme will be uncovered. Pretty soon a new one will start. Jesse James made a living robbing trains and banks and I guess people are still coming up with ways of robbing banks, just not using guns any more. We will survive the latest bank robbers and continue to store our money there.

People and lending institutes that bought and loaned money for houses they could not afford were doomed to lose them from the beginning. Smart people still live in houses they could afford and will be able to afford through tough times. Just because your income increases doesn't mean you have to buy a bigger house every time you get a raise. Keeping up with the Jones is like showing your privates. Someone always has a bigger one. Kinda like some of the collectors that try to be whales. In the long run they are swallowed by a bigger fish.

Rest assured Mathew we will survive this. I just hope that with the doom a gloom attitudes and the hopes that the new adminstations fail, that some people are not advising people where to invest their money. I for one would not like to have my money in their hands.

I hope that you next post is as well written, but a little less fantasy.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

How do you all live in such a small apartment together?
One you don't even own!

BcD

Joe,

My point is that there is a good possibility of a shift in perception in regards to high end tangible assets. Names such as Rembrandt, Warhol and Picasso will always have an inevitable following. Some of those effective 'tastes' will change for two reasons.

1. Classical culture in the arts isn't as appreciated in America as in prior decades. Much like coin collectors were positioned until the State Quarter phenomenon, the art crowd is largely an aging population. Unfortunately, fine art is not the media superstar it once was in prior decades. The multimedia experience of the 20th century further enhances future generations of high end collectors because they can better relate to what they have experienced firsthand. In the US, nostalgia is likely to play a increasing role in price, rather than obselete prestige.

That being said, I have dipped into the art market with Andy Warhol and Keith Haring. Their pieces sell well because of name recognition and the 'pop' nostalgia connected within. It's not the big names that will be affected- millions of dollars go into what I'd call 'fringe' art that is acquired for big numbers and has no 'name' behind it. Sure...you can like a piece or two...but to speculate on unknowns for big pricing is likely to fade in America. I believe acquired taste will almost completely be European driven in the coming decades.

Why...because people buy what they know, and what they like.

In regards to fantasy- I don't mean to be a 'party pooper', but its pretty ugly out there. The main problem is that the time value of money is at a standstill. We're also likely to see massive inflation as part of that recovery. I've been buying TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds) as a hedge because of this assumption.

I do agree with Bruce in most cases. 'Depression' doesn't necessarily have to mean FDR policy and the 'Grapes of Wrath.' There are too many systems in place to have our cities overrun by massive homelessness and tumbleweeds flying through the streets. Things are tough, and most of it is by circumstance. He is right, because some will have to part with their most prized possessions to meet financial margin calls on their stock, real estate and business livelihoods.

...and this crazy situation has screwed many of those who suppossedly had 'recession proof businesses'

Think about this...oil has gone from $70 to $150 and back to $37 in just one year. That effects everyone. Airlines, municipalities and businesses abound locked in commodity contracts near the peaks because they were afraid it would go higher. Again, another economy killer because it all trickles down.

There are some that will be completely unaffected and may 'jump' economic classes simply by not being 'invested.' This could be the new wealth spectrum, and completely unlike previous 'rich' folk in prior generations. My guess is that their investments will be more simple than ever before.

MP

Other people have already answered the bankruptcy questions, but no one has really talked about seizure as part of criminal investigation.
There are 2 different types of seizure that could happen - seizure for the purpose of asset forfeiture or seizure for investigation/evidence gathering.

Seizure for the purpose of asset forfeiture would likely result in consignors having to hire lawyers to file claims to get their property back (I doubt most U.S. Attorneys' offices will even fight the claims), while seizure for investigation/evidence gathering results in the return of property to the owner afterward . . . BUT many law enforcement entities do not exercise proper care with valuable property seized as evidence. One anecdotal point will illustrate this. A dealer friend of mine had an expensive raw card (high-grade post-WWII HOFer rookie) stolen. It was recovered when the thief was arrested. The dealer got it back after the trial - with an evidence sticker now stuck directly on the card.

Are you sure that raw, stolen card wasn't just sent to GAI to be graded? They seem to like to put stickers on things quite a bit. Being very small stickers with their name on them I guess they think it's good advertising...

Left or right if you are wishing for the American president to fail you are wishing for America to fail and you are not a good American.

Period.>>

Agree 100%
Good Lord, don't tell me the hating on Obama has already begun. Cut the guy some slack and let's see if he can try to lead us out of the morass that Dubbya left. There's a reason Bush was voted the worst President in the history of our country and yet the personal attacks on the man paled in comparison to the barbs and down right cruel hatred Clinton faced from the right wing.
As far as there not being one single act of terror on American soil after 9/11, how many acts were there before Bush? The so-called "Patriot Act" and the pervading environment of Fear that Bush and his cronies fostered will be his real legacy, not the ruined economy, the inane war in Iraq or any of his other blunders.

The first World Trade Center attack?

I have a friend whose son is in the CIA(seriously) who is no movement conservative and has told me you would not believe how many potential terrorist attacks have been thwarted because of the major effort put across by the Bush administration to fight terrorism.

To me the role of government and taxes are major issues but keeping the country safe from the enemy is even more important and I give him an A plus here.

In December 2001, I needed to take some time off to satisfy the minimum (sic) number of vacation days I had to take at Beckett. Also; my dad had just had "the fall" and I wanted to spend some time with him around the holidays.
Flying back from Newark to DFW it was an absolute nightmare; made worse by what I thought was a ridiculous rule about taking off one's shoes. (If anyone ever sees what shoes I wear; you'd understand why I thought it was weird)
Lo and behold; 2 days later the "shoe bomber" was stopped before he could light his bomb.

From that point on; I always figured there was some stuff the government knew that I did not.

Rich

I think you have your timing a bit mixed up.

The "Shoe Bomber" got his shoes on the airplane, and was bending down to light the fuse when a cabin attendant noticed what was going on.

The reason he got his shoes on the airplane was that shoes were not being checked then.

Shoes began being checked shortly after the incident.

If you knew Rich K (hi Rich) as well as I do you would understand. I am sure he appreciates the minor correction. Rich is a great guy and a good friend....Remind me someday to tell the story about food on his shoulder ....

Some airports were making people take off the shoes before the shoe bomber incident.

It was not every passenger, but it was happening before.

After the incident they made everyone do it.


Steve

WELL MY FRIEND I CAN'T AGREE WITH YOU MORE. I JUST FELT IS WAS A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THEY WOULD GET BUSTED. IT'S A SHAME. I REMEMBER AS A KID GOING TO THE STORE TO BUY MY CARDS, THEN TAKING THEM HOME AND NEATLY PLACING THEM IN THE CIGAR BOX MY GRANDFATHER GAVE ME. THIS I DO KNOW, WHEN THERE IS MONEY INVOLVED, SOME CROOK(S) WILL COME ALONG AND RUIN EVERYTHING.

Mathew, Again well written and your points are well taken. The fantasy remark was not about you financial knowledge, but you saying baseball cards are a better market than art. I agree that speculation into unknown artists is always a risk. Most serious art collectors buy what they like and could care less about value or investment. Then of course you have the people that buy and hope to turn a profit, just like in any collectible, they are likely to be disappointed. Baseball cards also fall into that same catagory. If you buy hoping to flip and not what you like, you are likely to be disappointed.
We buy cards because we love the history and hope they at least hold their value.

Now the oil market. Only OPEC is to blame for the current prices. Almost all oil producing nations set their incomes and buying habit when oil went over $100 a barrel. As it fell they had to produce more to pay their debts and feed their economy. They don't grow corn over there. If the oil stops, their economy collapses. As the price dropped, the more they had to pump. The domino effect. I predicted gas would hit $1.35. People thought I was crazy.

OPEC continues to say they are going to cut back production. They can't. It's a scare tactic to try to bolster the price per barrel. Gas companies have to use their supply in 90 days or less or it turns bad in the ground. Hence the ever continuing lowering of gas prices. Urge people to drive to get rid of their supply before it goes bad. OPEC's poorer nations are now stuck with huge debt from over buying and cannot cut production or their people will starve.

Mathew, I really enjoy your posts and talking to someone with knowledge and I hope for everyone our economy pulls out of this a bit earlier than you predict. None the less, it is a pleasure talking to an intelligent and level headed poster. Take care, Joe

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

for the moment, I can state from experience that if you have to deal with the US Attorneys Office on asset forfeiture, you are in for a nightmarish battle, even if your client is 100% correct. The law has been established with very low thresholds of evidence to justify a seizure, at least until trial. Once the government has the funds it is similar to an IRS audit (where the IRS agent makes you prove to him why a challenged item is legit)--they tell you to prove to them why it isn't the proceeds of an illicit transaction. What makes things worse is that asset seizure has become a major source of revenue for governments at all levels.

A client of mine had an asset case several years ago; totally righteous on his part. The government was investigating a doctor writing scrips for junkies and one of them used my client's address as a fake address. He never lived there; just wrote it down randomly. The government got a warrant for all the addresses on the fake prescriptions on the basis that they were looking for drug sales rings who were getting scrips from corrupt doctors and reselling the pills on the street, and broke into my client's home. He was an ex-Black Panther from the 1960s and one of those "I don't believe in banks" types and had his life's savings, about $25,000 in a safe. The guy was a health care worker for 30 years, wasn't charged for anything, wasn't even arrested in the bust. The government still took the money and refused to give it back. Their "evidence" was that he could not show them documentation for how he got the money (apparently saving it for your lifetime a bit at a time in cash after cashing paychecks isn't enough) and a drug sniffing dog smelled cocaine manufacturing precursor chemicals on the money. Most of the money in circulation in the USA at the time would trigger a positive response in a drug dog, a fact that even the government had to concede. So I filed suit to recover the funds. The US attorney assigned to the case was a really nice guy--we got along great--and said he wanted to give it all back, but his department's policy was that they never give back more than 50% of the money regardless of merits without a trial. He even agreed that we would probably win the trial. The client opted to cut his losses and take the 50% rather than risk it all at trial.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

"I do agree with Bruce in most cases."

Doesn't sound so level-headed to me.


"He is right, because some will have to part with their most prized possessions to meet financial margin calls on their stock..."

Yep. That sure is the major problem these days. All those "main-streeters" having bought on margin. That's why so many are losing their homes and jobs.

Do you have a clue as to what's really happening out there?

Joe,



Same regards to you. This conversation has been fun. I also think some of the commodity bubble crashing so quick is also due in part to another factor. Most of the investment banks were carrying huge derivitive books with various 'bets' in regards to oil in particular. With Bear Stearns, Lehman and the others either disappearing or changing hands- they had to unwind positions.



David-

Margin is not only defined as credit granted for brokerage accounts. I'm referring to credit itself. For the main street this comes in the form of too much leverage. (ie. overzealous mortgages, equity lines, aggressive business lines of credit and credit card debt)



I do understand what's going on out there. I'm just stating the facts.

"I do agree with Bruce in most cases."

Doesn't sound so level-headed to me.


Hi david, Good to hear from you today. Level headed was not in regards to any statements, but that Mathew can state his opinions without attacking any posters and respecting others. I may not agree with everything he says, but respect the fact that he only giving his views in a respectful way.

I still believe if everyone keeps their heads, the only people that will lose are the ones that were in over their heads to begin with.
I hate to see Americans lose their jobs as there is no financial planning that can compensate for that, but people trying to keep up with the Jones when they should have mingled with the Smiths only have themselves to blame.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

"but people trying to keep up with the Jones when they should have mingled with the Smiths only have themselves to blame."

And who might those people be, Joe?

Do you mean the hard-working, low-income families who had always dreamed of owning their own homes, and who were convinced by the banks that this was their chance? The ones who were strenuously and continuously lied to by financial professionals, and convinced by them that their ARMs would only go down, or were told that an "interest-only" mortgage was their safe path to the American dream?

Those people?

David do you actually contribute to the baseball card topics on this site or do you just come here to bitch about the class struggle?

Me thinks that was a rhetorical question.

"David do you actually contribute to the baseball card topics on this site or do you just come here to bitch about the class struggle?"

Why don't you ask those on the memorabilia side?

(Unlike some here, I don't need to use this forum as a venue to brag about my collection, pat myself on the back, or blow my own horn. But if you have any question regarding NY Yankee artifacts, autographs, or memorabilia (particular emphasis on the years 1903-1927), I'd be happy to help you out.)

No David, I'm refering to the banks and the customers that took out home loans at 10 to 20x's their current income and chose to only pay interest to live in a home they could not afford. When they lost their homes, they lost a place to live. If it was their choice to live over their heads, the banks should have stopped them. Real Estate prices in some areas were so over inflated that people chose and I say again chose to buy into it. It doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to see that homes in some areas appreciated by 100% to 300% over a 10 year period that the prices would eventually level out and come back to there real world value.
Don't blame all of this on government or lending institutions. Nobody twisted their arms to get in over their heads. All it took was some research first. They are the ones who signed on the bottom line.
As for Americans who have been effected without any fault of their own, these are the people I feel for.

BTW, Don't ask me questions like I'm a 2 year old. Phrase them as you would to intelligent adult. I'm not a professor, but I'm smarter than you might think.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Don't blame it on lending institutions?



So, if I lend money to a person that I know for a fact can't repay me it's his fault?

Many of these loans were made by "bankers" who knew damn well they could not be repaid. They made their money up-front, in fees, and didn't give a damn what happened after they sold the loans.

But you're right. It's really the fault of all the poor, greedy bastards who duped those unsuspecting loan officers into financing their new mansions.

David,
I don't visit the memorabilia forum, but this forum is about Vintage Baseball Cards in case you haven't noticed. You may be a valuable contributor on the memorabilia side, but here your main contributions seem to be steering threads into off-topic territory and endless pissing and moaning.

I'm sure you have plenty of valuable baseball related knowledge or you wouldn't be here - why not share some of that in the relevant threads?

You left out words in my sentence. Do you do this for your students also? My written words were,

"Don't blame it ALL on the lending institions."

Are there good teachers and bad teachers? Are there good bankers and bad bankers? Do you buy things blindly or do you research? Do you borrow things that you are able to pay back or do you borrow knowing you will never be able to afford the purchase?

Do you blame a bank because I purchase a $1M home?

Or do you have to look in the mirror? Do you teach accountability to your students? Maybe that is a course the current generation of college stucents should take. As I understand it they are because of credit card debt one of the worst debt ridden age class and they don't even have a job yet. My daughter is in college without income and receive (here on purpose) 3 credit card applications a week, all shredded before opening. Maybe instead of arguing mute points you could contribute to the Education of our next generation and teach them responsible spending and borrowing habits.



In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

Yeah, I steered this thread off-topic.

And what was that topic? Oh, Yeah. Bruce's "prediction" that the world will end this year (so y'all might as well sell your cards to him for, dare I say it? CASH!)

I'm pissing and moaning? Gimme a break!

Yes, Joe. I do teach accountability. And, as I said, I hold accountable the bankers who used extremely poor judgment(and/or extreme greed)in making those "toxic" loans. If a ten-year old walks into a bank and asks for a loan, no big deal. But if that bank actually gives him the loan, who would you "hold accountable"? The child?

A loan officer is a professional, supposedly trained to spot poor credit risks, and not loan money to them, no matter how nicely they ask.

And, BTW, if you don't want me to treat you like a two-year old, then don't presume to have knowledge of things about which you are completely ignorant, such as what I teach my children or my students.

David...my main point which you ignored was that you contribute nothing baseball card related on this baseball card board - subtract my "pissing and moaning" comment and the main point still stands.

And David please tell me which 10 year olds got loans to buy houses? Comparing adults who should have some responsibility for their actions to 10 year olds is insulting to the adult population and evidence of your nanny state mentality. The mortgage brokers and banks should be held accountable for this mess as well, but to completely dismiss the American consumers responsibility for their own finances is a joke - the issue isn't as black and white as you make it.

Many people in this country have tried to live beyond their means for years - buying a more expensive house, a more expensive car, or a bigger TV than they could afford andnow their excessive spending is coming back to haunt them.

The people really getting screwed in the whole deal are people who lived within their means, put money aside when they could, and tried to be responsible. Many of those people are now going to see their taxes go up in order to bail out the orgy of spending over the last decades - that on top of seeing their home values diminish and retirement plans lose substantial value.

Is that by securitizing the loans the rational plan for the makers of these loans was to make as many loans as possible as rapidly as possible to anyone they could so as to generate the fees and the raw grist for the bundled securities mills. To say that the borrowers should have exercised restraint and not lived beyond their means as the explanation of the debacle is to oversimplify the situation and allow the most educated, most expert participants in the mess off the hook. Read this article on WaMU's practices and see if you still want to blame the borrowers for everything; the lenders knew precisely what they were doing--they didn't care because it did not pay to care:



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html>

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

Then teach your students good economics. You putting the blame entirely on banks is like you putting the blame on a bookie taking a bet.

If the better cannot pay the bet and sends the goons to breaks his legs, it's the bookies fault?

Don't shift the responsibilty to a lender. In this no accountiblility society we have built it's no wonder that everyone else is to blame for the American publics problems.

Crime? Blame it on their parents. Poor work ethics, ADD.

Wrong answer in school? Give him a grade for trying. That's how a boss will feel when they get out in the real world. Yea right.

No winners or losers in sports for children. We don't want them to feel bad. Don't keep score because a child feelings might get hurt. I got news for you, it's a cruel world out there and the faster they learn it, the better off they will be.

Resposibility falls on the individual and the quicker it is taught the faster the school of hard knocks will be learned.
Young people today want what their paerents have NOW!! They don't realize it took their parents 25 years to acquire it through hard work and financial planning.

I am glad you teach your students resposibility. If there were more teaching like you, our next generation might just be resposible for their actions and quit blaming it on everyone else.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

I knew the mess was coming 3-4 years ago when my pal's girlfriend was given a home loan for $120,000 and she was only making $23,000/year.