No need to say anything specific I just thought I would get a pulse of how our members are doing on this topic.
How are you doing in the current auctions?
Personally, I have about 130 bids in on different lots and I am high on very few. For no one bidding in the Legendary Auction I am doing poorly so far..... 0 for 40. I expect to make a run for something later tonight but we shall see.....This seems like the right time to upgrade a Drum or two.....Can they all actually get to market prices? My guess is "yes, they can, and will"..
The problem with the auctions is that whoever is leading today has a very small chance of leading at the end of the auction unless they are prepared to throw in a few more bids -- especially so in REA in which the extended bidding period is 47 days long (ok, slight exaggeration). I propose gathering a group of bidders -- with pitchforks and torches -- and proceeding over to the REA mansion in Watchung and 'convincing' Rob to end it at a reasonable hour. Of course, while we're all doing that some jerk will be at home on his computer outbidding us on all of our precious cards.
Edited to add: Joe, I wasn't aware that there were 5 Taddys in REA; I'll re-check the catalogue.
I realize what I was asking is very preliminary because it really all happens in the last hours. That being said I just thought it would be good to get some perspectives... To me it looks like the hobby is quite healthy even though the economy is faring much worse....
I would disagree slightly with your analysis of there being no reason to be high on a lot now, far before an auction close. I think/know there are some lots that get all of their action before the close. If you are high bidder on a lot that would be a $2000 (retail) lot, and you are high at $1800...then there is a chance you will get it for that amount. If the lot is still far below retail (whatever that means) then I agree.
Looking to grab one card in REA. Haven't yet decided my max, so am waiting a bit longer before I place it. The last two years, I've focused on one thing in REA and have won both. Kinda the way I like to roll.
Yes, if you reach your max early no reason not to get one last bid in and hold your breath. But if you are a little below your max, or below fair market value, and bid now, there is a very high probability you will be topped.
Of course you can't generalize because each lot is unique. In my auctions 95% of the lots received their final bids in the last 3-4 hours. The chance of a lot getting its last bid Wednesday and holding up until Thursday was remote, but it could happen.
have a few bids in REA and Goodwin, with one high bid in each auction. some of the cards i put in early bid are pretty much out of reach for me at this point. hoping that the two or three cards that are still within by budget wont move up too much the next week or two.
Even though bids are important it's generally the #1 and #2 bidders that are the most important to a realized price on a lot. Bids early on really mean very little except that I can play in extended bidding periods. If I have one bid that holds as of right now...in any of the auctions, I would be surprised. I am not the one to worry about. Barry on the other hand...watch out for that guy!! He gets ya' where you are almost in a sleep and WHAM!!.....He goes in for the kill, like a UFC/MMA Champion. Those are the bids that count.
I have done some analysis and found that roughly 80% of all lots have just 3 bids left before final sales price when the auction has just 36 hours remaining. I have bid on 18 lots in REA (in the lead on 3) and 8 of those lots I would gladly go three additional bid increments higher. So I plan on winning 6.4 lots.