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My predictions

October 11 2001 at 9:36 AM
Arthur Gibson  (Login Arthurgibson)

 
I expect a full scale ground invasion of Afghanistan, by Pakistani, US, French, Canadian, German and British forces within days, perhaps hours. I am convinced that it will be launched from Pakistan, with the backing of India and many other nations. Up to 1000,000 troops could be involved, maybe more, the bulk of them Pakistani.

This is now a full scale war between the US (which includes by definition NATO) and Afghanistan. The Taliban declared war on the US yesterday and it will be responded to in kind.

The gloves are off, the phoney war is about to end and the real fighting is about to begin. They will take Afghanistan apart stone by stone if required. They will replace the government and liquidate the terrorists.

If Saddam lifts half a finger to help Osama they will launch a full scale invasion of Iraq to replace that government.

If they have to invade Iran and Syria, they will not hesitate to do so for one moment, but I doubt that it will be required.

This is NOT Desert Storm. This is a mini World War Three and the stakes are substantially higher. There is no comparison.

The Muslims are gold medal cowards and the whole thing will be a push-over. But I am convinced that the fur is about to fly.


 
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genevois
(Login genevois)

Hmm

October 11 2001, 11:58 AM 

Interesting prognosis. Pakistan is saying today that it won't allow combat troops to use it as a staging post, although what troops are NOT combat ones, I wonder ? I can't see Pak getting involved; the domestic situation is too shakey for Musharraf to be seen to be supporting the US so strongly. Plus any Pakistan troop movements will get India nervous, and the west does not want the Indians getting jumpy right now.

The expansion of the current theatre will have a lot to do with how strong Colin Powell's hold is in Washington. He has always argued for a limited conflict, and if he can maintain that line then I think we will see a pause for breath in a few day's time. I don't think the US has thought this through at all, and they have no idea what they will do next. These repeated bombings are pointless from a military point of view - they're flattening mud and thatch buildings in cities that are no more than villages in our context, knocking out a few rusty MIGs that could have been shot down had they ever been used. This is sabre-rattling, while Bush thinks out the longer game plan.

 
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funkiiprez
(Login funkiiprez)

Another prediction

October 12 2001, 12:17 AM 

I think it's possible that the bombings and the threat of special forces are doing something constructive.

If they force the Taleban to implode (which they surely will), Al-Qaeda will no longer have any protection within Afghanistan.

With a $5m price on Bin Laden's head, Afghan forces that are currently fighting the Taleban will redirect their resources towards hunting him down - and they will make a far better job of it than we ever could.

They are no keener on the bunch of Arabs that have taken over their country and used it as a springboard for Middle Eastern terrorism than Tony Blair, George Bush or the rest of the world is.

 
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Arthur Gibson
(Login Arthurgibson)

I completely agree

October 12 2001, 6:00 AM 

Everyone is suffering the classic symptoms at the start of a war, anxiety etc. I did for a few days until I worked out that there was nothing to fear and we were up against a bunch of people who were just NOT smart.

They are crumbling and WILL. I very much doubt that there will even be any more terrorism, other than the odd drive by shooting, mostly in the Middle East.

These people are not tough like the IRA.

I feel sorry that the Americans are going though all this worry. One day they will look back and realise that there was nothing to worry about. Our forces are doing a great job and our fuel tax money is being well spent.

I am confident that the Florida anthrax thing is home grown. The Taliban and Terrorists know no more about it than we do. If they did THEY WOULD HAVE CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY BY NOW!

By the way, Pakistan is behaving great in all this. Compare their actions to those of the Saudi cowards.

 
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