Its my experience of history that if the same people fight the same war twice, the original winner also wins the second time, but finds it much harder to do so and takes far greater losses.
Iraq 2003 is the second round and this time it will hurt us.
The political editor of the Daily Telegraph was on Sky News yesterday and was musing about what effect the US/UK build-up (which has lurched into full swing this week) might have on the Iraqi military.
I'd like to think that either the CIA, MI6 or Mossad have a few double agents high-up in Saddam's political or military establishment.
We know that special forces are in Northern and Southern Iraq. Is it possible that they are formenting a military coup against Saddam to be followed up by a popular rebellion?
Is it possible that this is Bush's game-plan in the first place?
I've tried but I just can't see the point in this war - on this scale. It does seem to be a massive over-reaction and diversion of effort.
If I was Dubya, I would certainly be trying to get the job done via the Iraqi people rather than risking American soldiers on a war that no-one really wants.
I think that the trouble is that Saddam has too tight a grip on his people,and because of his well known ruthlesness there are very few people that will oppose him overtly at home.
Even the democrats of Iraq are mostly living outwith the country, so they can start very little in their homeland that might lead to emancipation.
One thing is sure: If the people of Iraq do finally have the courage to rise up against Saddam, even if it is with the help of the Western democracies, it is unlikely that any uprising of this type would be a bloodless coup. Saddam and his large personal guard of elite troops would see to that.
