I think that we are in for a big surprise. Its costing too much for the US and the UK to send all this arms build up to the Gulf only to back down and bring it home again.

The US and Britain know something that they are not telling the rest of the world, the UN or Hans Blix. When it suits them, about mid to late February, they will anounce the evidence that they have on Iraq, WMD and the link with bin Laden and launch and immdeiate attack. Most likely they will even do it the other way round, launch the attack and release the "bombshell" evidence simultaneously. World opinion will turn 180 degrees within five minutes and the French, Germans and all the other cowards will be left looking daft.

If the US announces its evidence now, it will not be anble to launch an immediate attack, because the troops are not in place yet. So they have to keep quiet until D day minus sixty seconds.

Yes there is going to be a big war and yes WMD will almost certainly be used. The US will do its utmost to destroy them before they are launched, but they will be dispersed and therefore not easy to hit. Some will be in other friendly countries, some may even be in the US and the UK already.

I believe that North Korea will explode a nuclear device on their own soil on day one of the Iraq conflict and threaten South Korea and Japan with nuclear blackmail. Japan may use nuclear weapons against North Korea. I am convinced that Japan has a large stockpile of its own nuclear weapons and suitable missiles to launch them.

I think that Saudi and most of the Arab states will fully back the US in the coming conflict and start pumping oil as fast as possible to bring the price down. I think that Iran will support Iraq, but not on the ground.

I think that Iraq will certainly attack Israel and that Israel will certainly retaliate.

I think that the Iraq war is all about 911 and this will become obvious before long.

I think that terrorist attacks on The West will begin on day one or two of the Iraq war.

I think that the Iraqi oil wells will be detonated by Saddam about ten days into the conflict.

I think that the FT will fall to about 2,000 and then recover to about 2,700 a few weeks later. The DOW will lose about 32% from its current value and take years to recover even to current levels.

I think that the long gilt (TR32 30 years) will rise in value to approximately £110 - £115 a few days after the war starts. Then later fall back to about £105. Its £97 now.

I predict that about ten life assurance companies will go bust within two years, three banks and about about six building societies.

I predict that spending on the NHS will be slashed within twelve months, taxation will rise steeply and that Labour will still win the next election. They will lose the one after the next.

I think that British property will lose 15% before the end of this year and lose another 10% next year. Property will take about ten years to regain current levels. I think that shares will stay down for approximately 10 years.

I predict that at the end of this decade there will be three superpowers in the world, the US, Japan and China. I predict that Japan will soon recover from its long malaise and outperform all the rest of the world. Germany and France will drop into deflation and a decade of economic woes.

I predict that the US$ will lose 25% of its value over the next three years and that the Chinese Renembi will unlink from the US$ about September 2003 and gain approximatly 15% in its value within 12 months from that date. the Yen will rise by about 35% over the next five years.

I think that British economic performance over the next decade wil be flat, but that will be good compared to the rest of Europe and the US. We will never join the Euro, at least not for a decade.

The book "Arthurdamus - The 21st Century Predictions" will be available 1/4/03 published by Red Lorry Yellow Lorry Publishers, priced at £14.99.

MP|¬((

See: http://www.network54.com/Hide/Forum/thread?forumid=96157&messageid=981025607&lp=981025607

Written by me 1 February 2001.

A year from me about 70% of my latest predictions will have come true, just as 70% of my 1 February 2001 predictions came true.

The reasoning is now clear Arfur, Bush and Bliar were too lazy and squeamish to undergo penis extension surgery.