MICHAEL MEL POLLS PREDICT O'NEILL-NAMAH GOV WILL EASILY GET BACK INTO POWER
June 11 2012 at 9:44 AM
MICHAEL MEL RESEARCH & MARKETING CONSULTANTS
Poll Predicts O'Neill-Namah Govt To Return After Election
by Neville Togarewa
Post Courier Weekend Edition June 9, 2012
A public opinion poll has predicted that the current O'Neill-Namah Government will return to power after the general election to serve their first full five year term after being in office for 10 months since ousting the Somare regime on August 2, 2011.
This is a major prediction of PNG's only public opinion poll company, Mell Research & Marketing Consultants, according to the results of a nationwide poll conducted over a period of six months from October 2011 to March 2012.
Company managing director and team leader, Michael Mell, announced the results on Thursday.
"According to the results, Prime Minister Peter O'Neill's People's National Congress party (PNC) will muster the required numbers to return him as Prime Minister," Mr Mell said.
"Deputy Prime Minister Belden Namah's PNG Party will also muster the numbers to retain him as Deputy Prime Minister," he said.
"If the O'Neill-Namah partnership remains as strong as it has been in the last 10 months during the remainder of the campaign and polling periods, and up to the formation of Government, the public can be rest assured that the current coalition Government will return," Mr Mell said.
"O'Neill's PNC and Namah's PNG Party are tipped to win the most seats, followed by other coalition partners of Don Polye's THE Party and (William Duma's) United Resources Party," he said.
Mr Mell said a little over 50 percent of the sitting MPs will retain their seats and slightly less than half will lose theirs. The number of sitting MPs who will retain their seats will be slightly better than in the 2007 election when almost 50 percent of the sitting Members lost their sesats.
"The results also show that of the more than 40 percent who will retain their seats, the majority of them are members of PNC, followed by PNG Partyu, THE Party and URP," Mr Mell said.
"The four Government coalition parties have nominated a good number of strong non-MP candidates who have very good chances of being elected. and if this turns out to be the case, the Government's numbers will be boosted further," he said.
The polls also predicts that the number of independent candidates who will win this time will drop slightly. According to interviews conducted by the company, PNC, PNG Party, THE Party and URP have endorsed many of their independent candidates.
"If Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare was a young leader and was contending for the Prime Minister's post, the recent political impasse would have a large impact on the election and this could propel him back into Government," Mr Mell said.
"But this is not going to happen, and even the newly appointed leader of National Alliance (Patrick Pruaitch) will be nowhere near to becoming a prime ministerial candidate," he said.
"The political impasse was the result of Somare's indecisiveness in choosing and grooming one of his 'sons' to replace him as NA leader and potential candidate for the Prime Minister's post," Mr Mell said.
"NA's leadership transition process should have started soon after the party was returned with a majority after the 2007 election to serve its second consecutive term from the 2002 election," Mr Mell said.
"In this respect, Somare and his NA party executives have failed miserably to perform their most important strategic political move to ensure a smooth transition of leadership by appointing one of the four regional deputy leaders to succeed the Grand Chief," he said.