Who should form the next government? Let's roll the dice
July 14 2012 at 3:16 PM
As most of you are well aware, leadership is not bought but must be earned. On that note, we should respect Sir Michael because he has earned it for over forty years not only from the people of East Sepik Province but the rest of the country too including the world at large. Since Sir Michael is a parliamentarian and rightfully a senior statesman, another question that pops up is; is leadership defined by position. The absolute answer is No. Leadership is what is within you and when you are given an opportunity (position) it automatically emanates out for all to see. So a true leader doesn't care whether he/she is in an enviable position within a society/community for they can always sit back and assume the role of a mentor/coach.
So reverting to my question, who should become CEO of PNG after this election? First let's start off with the Grand Chief and his National Alliance Party. The problem with Sir Michael is that he doesn't even have confidence in the current crop of NA members including Pruaitch to lead the party. That is why he is returning to try and put the house in order and pass the baton to Pruaitch before he can call it quits. But can a NA led government last without Sir Michael? Let's not forget what happened to Sam Abel. Abel who is one of the most stable politicians from the highlands region couldn't uphold the previous NA led government together. So I doubt Pruaitch will. But if we were have to have a NA led government, it would be a non-performing one for the next five years where you will have to keep the boys happy in order to hold them together. Can PNG afford this when rest of the world is miles ahead? Definitely not.
Thus, how about O'Neil and his PNC party? Is O'Neil capable of leading the country in the next term? With PNC party already doing so well in the preliminary counts and OíNeil retaining his seat, I would say the answer is Yes. Why? O'Neill got the temperament, experience and ability to unite PNG unlike other highlands' leaders. For other political leaders thought out the country, I have observed them but none stands out except for the likes of Sir Julius and Sir Rabbie with the latter not contesting this year. But for Sir J, this could be his last election, I'd hope so.
If O'Neil and his PNC party are invited to form the next government, he must be very careful on whom he associates with. The probable answer is that he is likely to team up with NA for there is no love lost between them. With the recent fallout with PNG and THE parties, O'Neil will definitely revert back to NA for he can't trust Namah and Polye as his subordinates. But should PNC and NA combine, there would always be infighting and under par performances for the next 5 years for there is a lot to be resolved between them.
Thus, if PNC musters the number, the ideal coalition would be between them and the Independents plus other smaller political parties such as Melanesian Alliance, Social Democratic and so forth. This would be the most stable government for PNG because no independents MPs would want to break-away on their own from the government. Likewise, the smaller parties would be reluctant to leave the coalition too. The results would be great for PNG!
Re: Who should form the next government? Let's roll the dice
July 14 2012, 5:36 PM
You are remarkable in one sense, A.H., but expected in another.
It is remarkable that in your long analysis you do not mention EVEN ONCE the obvious corruption that is involved in becoming PM. It may be possible for an intending PM to win an election without corruption. But it is impossible for any MP to become PM without buying the loyalty of enough MPs to swing to their side. This year money will talk more than ever, but you haven't even considered that, have you? You live in a dreamworld that MPs will support for PM whoever seems best qualified for the job, not who will put the most money into that MP's personal bank account in exchange for their loyalty.
On the other hand, your posting is typical in that most of us live in the same dream world you do. We pretend that our leaders aren't corrupt. We pretend that we live in a democracy, and best of all, we pretend that all this power struggle, payoffs and buyoffs don't in the end, affect people's lives and impoverish our rural sector even more than it is now.
The tragedy of PNG, A.H. - and you're contributing it by treating all this like you're analysing the maroons versus the blues.
You want to live in reality and accept what life is like today. I want to live in a world and dreamed of what it should be like. That is what drives modernization today. You dreamed about what an ideal world should be like and work towards it no matter whatever the costs is. That is how economies, industries, governments are build nowadays. Today societies flourish when they focus their energy and resources on what is important for their citizens. We can't look at the government and say that all is corrupt because no matter how we view our political leaders, no leaders or societies are immune to corruption throughout the world. It's like seeing a half-filled bottle and say that it is empty half-way. I'd rather say it is half-full. Let's give our pollies the benefit of doubt and discuss and debate issues affecting our country. You never know something grand might happen out of all such discussions because one or two of them might check this site out. It doesn't take a whole army to conquer the world. But only one or two persons with determination and vision to change the world. Take for instance, Steve Jacobs. One man who changed the modernity because he already foresaw what was needed and told his workers to generate the idea no matter whatever the cost were. When you have a dream and vision that you are captured and entranced by it that you can't sleep and eat well, the chances are, others would feel it and own it. The result is mass production of goodies by many workers. Thus, amongst the 111 MPs, I bet one or two great leaders may come out.
Have you forgotten Hela and Jiwaka Provincial seats? I do my research before posting though I may not be always correct in my postings. For instance, when I predicted that PNC won't have the numbers to form the next government. However,despite any short-comings on the PNG Electoral Commission's part, we have seen PNC is currently leading in most electorates at the moment. I'm no big fan of O'Neil but if there was any vote rigging or corruptions involved, we must leave it to our judiciary system to deal with it rather than spend another K300 million plus for re-polling - money which should go to improve/build vital services for our people. Thus, we must not lose faith in all our government agencies to exercise whatever tasks they are obliged to do. I know some good staff are attached with these sectors with the likes of another Gary Juffa so we must not all predict gloom and doom for PNG.
WHAT? Leave the worst election mess in PNG's history to the judiciary to sort out???? Am I reading you correctly?
Have you ever heard about the Arab Spring and what transpired to bring down government after government in that part of the world? About what happened to bring down communism in eastern Europe? About the 2 people power revolutions in the Philippines? Must we really "leave it" to the corrupt PNG judiciary to deal with it?
How pessimistic and defeatist your idea is, A.H.! Why is it that the effective actions taken on by so many other societies are so easily dismissed as impossible for us melanesians?
I can't really say what separates us from others, for instance the middle east, etc. to sort out our mess. But one difference is our land tenure system. Most PNGeans have a land and village security network to fall back on so politics and corruption really doesn't fire people up to sustained action against corrupt governments.
Other societies have the governments owning land, and when injustice, inflation, unemployment and all other matters strangle them and when their backs are against the wall, they fight head on until it's done.
We have our places, our wantoks, our little survival networks and we tend to leave our political fights to only few and it fizzles out once the few vocal ones are bought off or silenced.
After all graun istap, why take risks and fight the crooks?
What am I doing here on SCAPE?? I'm doing what everyone else is doing. Coming in here and throwing in my tu toea worth of discussion/debate to identify the root causes of some of these problems, why some of these methods are not working and maybe we collectively should forge a way forward that worked, which could be rewarding for us all in the long run.
At what costs? Do you want the disruptions of vital goods and services to our people while we all engage ourselves in protesting? The Arab offspring and Russian societies are different because they were ruled by dictators for a long time. That is why the residents have been protesting for their peopleís freedom of expression. Unlike us, we are a democratic society. I wonder what you all would be saying if either NA or THE Party or any other political parties were leading in the polls. Would you also cry foul play?
In our tribalistic society, folks always identify themselves with tribes and persons of acquaintances irrespective of what their qualifications or experiences are in the modern era. These folks also donít care about how corrupted some of the candidates are because we educated elites have let them down in the first place. By identifying ourselves with tribalism and regionalism, we have not close the gap of uniting our people of many tribes and cultures but divided them even further. For instance, take these provinces of East Sepik and Southern Highlands as examples. The people of East and West Sepik are voting in all NA members even though we all know that some of them are corrupted and definitely don't deserve another term. Likewise the Southern Highlanders are voting in some of the corrupted PNC candidates to secure the PM post for OíNeil. It would have been great if all the Sepiks had voted in other partiesí candidates so as SHP and Hela Provinces. For me, I am very surprised and disappointed to see Gabriel Kapris Ė one of the most performing candidates in East Sepik Province losing his seat to a NA man. We must stop all this nonsense of Iím being a highlander and you being from the nambis. We all donít deserve to live in this beautiful country of ours called PNG anymore.
@mumbles - I don't think we are cowards. We are just human. if faced between 2 choices, a normal person would select the easiest choice.
For PNG right now, no matter what is happenning in politics and the corruption that is increasing, the people still have an option of doing nothin. That is an easy choice. They still get to eat their rice and tinned fish - it may be more expensive but we still manage.
When there is no option, then you will see the anger, courage of the people.
It may be the case that now is not the time. Even revolutions happen when the time is right. When all the major factors are aligned.
There were 109 sitting MPs... after Jiwaka and Hela gain their own province, will the number of MPs rise to 111 or up including the governors of the two province and other open electorates within the province????
National Alliance forming government with PPP, PDM, PANGU and THE party and Don Polye will be offered the PM post !!!!!!
I donot believe Nama and Oniel partnership will carry on after the election and think Polye does not like the way Nama conducts himself and will rather stay away from the PNG party. With the current law preventing the Grand Chief from being PM, I think he will graciously offer the top job to Don - on condition his politcal enemy namba One - BN is dealt with by the courts and this time no pardon will be entered into.
PNC is dong well however, it will not be able to make up the numbers by itself to form the next government. O'Neil has already started talking with independents and other smaller parties in the hope of recruiting them to join PNC in a coalition.
Namah wants to be PM, so is Polye. Going by the sorts of criticisms directed at O'neil both by Namah & Polye in the past, O'Neil will not be comfortable to form a coalition with Namah or Polye or both. Therefore O'neil is likely to look elsewhere to recruit numbers to form a coalition.
While O'neil aspires to recruit enough members to support his nomination for PM, it should be noted that, Chan has won the New Ireland Regional seat and Somare is leading in East Sepik and Wingti is leading in Western Highlands & Agiru has won the new Hela Regional seat.
The three senior statesmen are already talking with each other and Wingti appears to be the twine to tie up the three into one and they alrady have Agiru in their camp.
These three vaterans have lots in common.
They were prime ministers before and between them they have heaps of practical experience.
They have formed political marriages before.
They have broken those marriages before.
They have re-married again before
They have had fierce debate and serous disaggreements on the floor of parliament before,
YET- they have maintained respect for each other and remained friends to this day.
Somare will not avail himself to be nominated for PM, he is coming back to prove a point that, he was not removed from parliament and active politics by his East Sepik people. Like Somare, Chan spent his prime years in politics at the national level and he feels that he must give someting back to the people of New Ireland before he retires. Governor for New Ireland is more fitting in this regard for sir J. That leaves Wingti who stand to be adone as the Poenix rising up once again from the ashes to prominence.
Anderson Agiru for PM is the dark horse in this political manevouring. He is already Deputy PM in the Court Reinstated Somare Government and he is the inaugral regional member for the resources rich new Hela Province where much of the wealth is expected to be generated from. O'neil was influential in the old Southern Highlands and he still has good suport from the break away new Hela Province.
Agiru appears to be the best choice to neutralize the dominance of O'Neil and PNC both in Sothern Highlands & the new Hela Provinces. Agiru for PM
The trouble with PNG politics is too many chiefs and no indians therefore corruption is the way which continue to last the the parliament 5 yearly cycle and does repeat it self every other election. Yupela no les.
1. He chose his candidates carefully. Most of them are past MPs or were runner-ups in past elections or people of status in their communities unlike other party leaders.
2. He had the electoral commission declare his seat first when polling were still going in other places.
3. He has already indicated that his group would be camping out in Alotau. That is simply saying PNC would be there so that is where independents with the likes of Richard Maru and Sam Abel can find them. Unlike Polye who just said his door is open without letting independents know where exactly he'd be, O'Neil has indicated where he will be found.
4. When the fracas boiled over between PNC, PNG and THE parties in the past, O'Neil chose to be quiet and let Awesa do his talking. When Namah responded that 2012 was a failed election, O'Neil tactically shifted the blame to the electoral commissioner without offending Trawen.
Thus, for now O'Neil will form government with Namah and Polye including Duma's URP. But he is still leaving his door open with the possibility of future alliances with NA. At the moment with Sir Michael still being bitter and vocal over his unconstitutional removal, O'Neil wonít invite NA over yet. Once Sir Michael vacates the East Sepik regional seat and leaves it to Arthur and others to contest, he will then make his move to Pruaitch. Patrick won't do anything to Peter for they both know they are corrupt and their hands are tied up. So for the moment, it's going to be PNC, PNG, THE and URP plus independents coalition to form the government. In the future it would be PNC with NA should the rift between current coalition partners worsens.
First of all, I am not a pro political analyst so don't take my every word for it. But like rest of you who come here to comment, I also tend to give my opinions.
O'Neil will form the next political government because
1. PNC party has so far mastered the numbers and is leading in several electorates throughout the country. Thus, GG will definitely invite him and his party to form the government. PNG or any other parties can throw large sums of money here and there to lure the independents. But for now, it won't make any differences to build up their parties' numbers for the independents will still be recognized as independents prior to forming a government.
2. O'Neil is calm and cool headed and analyses carefully what's happening in the political arena before making his moves. Thus, it wasn't a mistake when he landed the PM's post prior to the general election.
O'Neil will form a coalition government and every one of the political parties including the independents would want to be part of it. It doesn't take a political genius to work this out. Apart from some kickbacks one might receive, the rewards of being in a government is wide and far-reaching. To simplify, it is like you can do anything under the sun to become wealthy overnight.
1. You instantly have access to K10 million DSG.
2. Before you were nobody. Now all of a sudden every businesses and corporation would want to become your friend. Depending on how you can talk and make your presence known in a government Ė the better you are, the more wealth you accumulate. Just ask Jeffery Nape and he'll tell you all about it.
3. You have the opportunity of being in every committee sometime getting the role of chairmanship. And the perks and privileges are immense. Unlike Australia where every federal MP is put under spotlight for whatever bonuses they receive apart from their normal wages, in ours you can do anything and easily get away with it. Just ask the PM himself.
4. If you come from a resource rich province such as Hela, then you automatically have access to millions of kina from lobbying developers.
So you see, it wonít be difficult for O'Neil to form the next government. Ben Micah (PPP) was the strategist behind O'Neil landing the PM's post and Peter rewarded him with PM's Chief of Staff post and Haiveta as High Commissioner to Australia. PPP has only 5 MPs and would become a minor party compared to THE and PNG but at least, it will boost PNC's numbers.
Should Wingti returns, him and Sir J or Michael can't do anything much at the political arena despite their experiences or whatever journalists say. Their once illuminating time is a bygone. This era belongs to the likes of Namah, Polye, O'Neil, Pruaitch, Duma and so forth.
Response to comment above. Declaration of O'Neil as an MP-elect when polling is going in other centres is ethically wrong. Though it won't break any laws of the country, this is not right, because voters can put their 1st preferences on any candidates they wish to vote but 2 and 3 are likely to end up with a PNC candidate. Using the disguise of a possible state of emergency in SHP and Hela, all the police and army resources were concentrated there and subsequently elections were conducted into Chimbu and EHP. And guess who were at the Defence and Police helms when that happened. Appointees of O'Neil led government except for Agwi whom O'Neil assured him of his post so long as he doesn't meddle into politics.
So was this election free and fair? To some extent it might have been rigged but you decide.
I think if Oniel is not capable and have been cheating and lying,I hope you have been known all these from him because you've been working or living very close with him for rest of your life,is it?? otherwise bro you use you mouth and brain in proper manner in which God has created for,don't put up critics against some of our good leaders because you heard the story about him from some third party people.I hope I won't be suprise if Oniel happens to bring in some changes into you place once he becomes nxt PM,Oniel is the peace loving man and he does not hate or plan to payback someone who does some thign wrong to him,He always tries his best to get along with people who always argue with him,if you don't know O'niel better,Please I'm begging you not to critises him because soomeone gave you negative stories about Oniel.
Thank you and May God bless you and your family..