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mennonite's observation seems to apply here, ållipse

by (Premier Login iorr5t)
Forum Owner

 

We are like sailors on a lost ship. One view is that we should continue on course. I argue that we should reverse course because I have a compass that says so. You argue that we should reverse course because you can read the star patterns.

As mennonite would note: we agree we should reverse course. But we are wasting time arguing about why.

In my cards analogy, I am saying that what looks like an improbable event to occur on our time scale is, in fact, probable on the time scale of the millions of years earth was hospitable to life.

I think we basically agree. Surely you don't think the events leading up to the formation of cells is so probable that it could occur in, say, a thousand years. That would be nice. We could set up a lab that duplicates hospitable conditions and in a thousand years, if some religious group or another have not destroyed the lab in a rage like the Talibon did to Budda, then we would have the absolute proof that said groups demand.

However I don't personally believe a thousand years is sufficient. I would imagine about 20 million years.

So here we are in the ship. The anti-evolutionists believe such events are so improbable that even 2,000,000 million years of favorable conditions would not make them probable. The evolutionists believe such events are indeed probable over the time period favorable conditions existed on earth. You seem to believe they are even more probable.

It doesn't matter. We had enough time regardless. If something has a high probability in 1,000 years, it has a high probability in 20 million years. Either way, it has a high probability.

(I hate myself for wasting time on this - we should be addressing the excellent questions raised by Michael Cawkins)

Mac

Posted on Aug 31, 2005, 6:06 AM

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Response TitleAuthor and Date
addressing the excellent questions raised by michael caLkinsmennonite on Aug 31
 oh okay, i get it...mennonite on Aug 31

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