The odd bounce of a ping-pong ball notwithstanding, here is how The Peerless sees the race . . .

March 12:

1. Pittsburgh: 44 points, 11 games remaining, last 10 = 6-3-1-0

Their schedule is somewhat forgiving . . . they have the Flyers and Devils coming up, but since the Penguins are "hot" (that being a relative term in this company), either of these games could be wins (and by virtue, "losses") for the black and gold. They get Buffalo in a back to back, and since the Sabres still entertain hpes of nabbing an 8-spot, these could spell doom (joy!) for the Penguins.

I think the Pens have ten points left in them for 54 points.

2. Chicago: 51 points, 13 games remaining, 2-5-2-1

The real sleeper here, their schedule is potentially brutal . . . Vancouver, Colorado, Dallas twice, St. Louis twice, and Nashville twice . . . all playoff teams or teams with hope. It could be close, but Chicago has barely enough left in it to fall short of Pittsburgh . . .

I’ll go with 57 points.

3. Columbus: 52 points, 12 games remaining, 3-7-0-0

And coming hard on the outside, the Blue Jackets. They start a five game road trip on Saturday – STL, MIN, EDM, CAL, VAN. That’s not a good thing. They finish they year: NSH, BUF, DET, COL, DET. That’s not a good thing, either. On top of this, they’re on a four-game losing streak. That’s the trifecta. But, I think they’ll squeeze out six points . . .

I’ll settle on 58 points.

4. Washington: 52 points, 12 games remaining, 2-7-1-0

Washington’s chances are hampered by having to play only three playoff teams in their last 12 – Tampa Bay, the Islanders, and Boston. All are on the road. However, the Caps have no offense to speak of, which is balanced by their inability to do much to stop the offense of others. It could come down to the three games the Caps have remaining with Pittsburgh (1H, 2A). If the Penguins sweep, the Caps odds improve dramatically. But, the Caps schedule is just too forgiving to have a serious shot at the title . . .

59 points

5. Phoenix: 61 points, 12 games remaining, 0-6-2-2

They could go oh-fer in their last 12 games and fall short. They won’t, but not for lack of trying . . . seven of their last 12 are against playoff teams. Only two games against Chicago offer them much hope at being a favorite to win any game. No, their hope lies in the bounce of a ping-pong ball.

No, but they're ahead of us in one respect....they tore their team apart sooner, so this group has had more time to read each other and actually start doing some of that improving you hope for when you rebuild.  We both suck, but the Pens have already been sucking longer, so they're still ahead of us.  Damn Pens! 

Or maybe they're just lucky....

The weird part might be this.  Finishing last gets one, I believe, a 42-point-something percent chance of getting the Magic Ping Pong Ball.

So, take the field against the "winner" who finishes 30th.  Chances are, you'd win that bet.

21-41-8-2
Olaf Kolzig and Brendan Witt must be double-checking to make sure they're not in Portland.
Key Injuries: D Jason Doig (wrist).

Re: Power Rankings... I forgot Lemieux and Abid were still in the organization.

AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHA THIS IS FUNNY AS HELL! (yes it's on topic)

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04073/285216.stm

LOL! Good one.

"The Capitals have gotten into legitimate contention for Ovechkin the old-fashioned way: By tanking. They started the season with a plethora of high-priced, lazy superstars, which gave them a good base of failure to build from. Then they traded all of them, creating an atmosphere of desolation and confusion that has enabled the Capitals to take the next step down. Now that's good management."

Our season.

Anyone remember Martin Brochu (Gesundheit)? No? Well the former Caps was called up straight from the ECHL to play backup for the Pens. If things get tight in the standings, expect him to get a few starts in there.

Brochu was part of my poem a few years ago, which ended:

Perhaps the Caps and Sens both cash in-

Bondra, Herr, Brochu.... for Yashin.

At the time, Matt Herr was one of the higher rated Caps' prospects, and Brochu was AHL goalie of the year.

Eastwood, Focht, Pirjeta, Brochu.
That's right, Caps fans. No Ovechkin for you.

Laughlin just said that last season, Brochu played in the Quebec Senior Men's League, and in Russia.

How the mighty have fallen...........

In goes Sebastien Caron, straight off the turnip truck from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Sorry, but having grown up in that part of the world, I can testify that there are no turnip crops anywhere to be found . . .

. . . now if you're talking pierogi, that's another matter.

March 20:

1. Columbus: 52 points, 8 games remaining, last 10 games = 2-8-0-0

Their remaining schedule: @VAN, MIN, ANA, @NSH, @BUF, DET, COL, @DET

That’s a rough schedule . . . rough enough that they will win this sweepstakes.

March 12 prediction: 58 points.
Updated prediction: 55 points

2. Pittsburgh: 49 points, 7 games remaining, 6-2-2-0

Their remaining schedule is: NYR, @NYR, @BUF, BUF, @WSH, @ATL, WSH

The Penguins are the hottest of the group, mainly owing to their cold cuts having played together a bit longer than the cold cuts on the other teams in the running. They are playing themselves out of the 30^th spot. Having the woeful Rangers twice and the pitiful Caps twice could kill whatever hope they had to finish last.

March 12 prediction: 54 points.
Updated prediction: 56 points

3. Washington: 54 points, 8 games remaining, 2-8-0-0

Remaining schedule: ATL, @NYI, @ATL, @TBL, PIT, @BOS, NYR, @PIT

Well, they beat the Rangers, but who doesn’t? They are doing the darndest to squeeze into 30^th with such inspired personnel moves as recalling Podkonicky, Tvrdon, and now, Matt Yeats (a non-roster, minor league free agent signing) to back up Olaf Kolzig. It says here that the Caps have four points left in them.

March 12 prediction: 59 points
Updated prediction: 58 points

4. Chicago: 55 points, 9 games remaining, 2-5-2-1

Their remaining schedule: PHX, @COL, MIN, @STL, STL, @NSH, NSH, @PHX, @DAL

If Phoenix wasn’t playing so poorly, there wouldn’t be a point you’d think the Blackhawks could get out of this schedule. They’ll get four by accident.

March 12 prediction: 57 points.
Updated prediction: 59 points

5. NY Rangers: 64 points, 8 games remaining, 2-6-0-2

Their remaining schedule: @PHL, @PIT, PIT, NSH, @PHL, @NJD, BUF, @WSH

A new entry, closing with a rush. If they make it, then the conspiracy element will be out in force making the claim that it’s over and done, the Rangers will win the ping-pong ball contest for Ovechkin. Unfortunately, they are playing just poorly enough and have enough of a scheduling advantage to overtake Phoenix for 5^th in this race.

Prediction: 67 points

6. Phoenix: 63 points, 8 games remaining, 0-6-2-2

Their remaining schedule: @CHI, @MIN, CAL, SJS, @EDM, @VAN, @CAL, CHI

Hey, they’re trying . . . winless in 14 straight games. But they’re starting too far behind the leaders to make any headway here. It will be all they can do to hold off the Rangers to keep their shot at the number one pick.

Prediction: 68 points

Predicted final standings:

Columbus: 55 points
Pittsburgh: 56 points
Washington: 58 points
Chicago: 59 points
NY Rangers: 67 points
Phoenix: 68 points

About Phoenix, "Hey, they’re trying", LOL!

You can be sure that the Penguins will win 4 points against us. I also think that Columbus has a good chance to finish "first".

Well, I think... we should really try to lose all of our remaining games.

I know that TAK wants a defenseman, but actually, like I said in a thread a week ago or so, our defense already has 3 or 4 young defensemen to assimilate next year (Eminger, Boumedienne and Morrisonn, who already have some NHL experience, plus Wellar... or even Oduya), while we still need snipers for our top two lines. We don't have a super-forward like Ovechkin and Crosby in our system. We need a leader.

Well, there will probably be a lot of gaming the draft . . . do the Caps keep the pick if it's the number one, do they trade it for multiple picks down the list, what do they do if they finish 2-5 . . .

For me, this is real simple.  If the Caps get the number one pick, they hit their knees and thank the God they pray to, then select Ovechkin.  Any calls to the Caps to inquire about that pick should be met with a resounding NO!  If a potential fanchise player is available when you pick, you pick him.  I don't see another option here.

Now, if the Caps don't get that number one, it gets more interesting, because of where the player they then want might be available, and whether any of the teams picking ahead of them might take him.

At the Central Scouting mid-term rankings, Cam Barker is the top rated NA defenseman (5th among skaters), but not substantially higher ranked than Mike Green (8th) or Jeff Schultz (11th).  Based on rankings, it doesn't look like a banner year for NA defensemen.  Sami Lepisto is the top ranked European defenseman (4th among skaters), but he's smallish at 6', 176.  Ladislav Smid, Johan Fransson, and Andrej Meszaros are all defensemen ranked among the top ten European skaters. 

Obviously, I don't get to see these guys play, but based on rankings, one wonders if there is a significant difference among the seven guys mentioned.  It doesn't seem as if there is a Bouwmeester or a Pitkanen among the group.

That raises the question . . . do the Caps trade down, giving a team a chance at a Malkin or Olesz at forward for multiple picks, and still get a good defenseman in the first round (assuming that part of the return is a somewhat lower pick in the first round)?

There is a real wild card her that involves the drafting bias of the Caps.  The top two NA skaters are forwards out of the WHL (Kyle Chipchura and Andrew Ladd).  Of the 12 forwards selected in the top-100 picks in the McPhee era, all but three (Semin, Stephens, and Werner) have been from or otherwise played in the WHL (Sivek played there after he was drafted).

With the #1 choice, I would pick Ovechkin. But he's a LW, so we wouldn't be able to play our Russians on the same line, unless one of them moves to the other wing.

What happened to Nepriayev, by the way? He'll probably play in North America next year, but he won't end up on the top line, anyway. Zubrus is "almost" a Russian, anyway (just like traitor Kasparaitis). We'd have to play Semin and Ovechkin on different lines (hehe, we're allowed to dream, I think).

Ovechkin Zubrus Aulin
Semin Klepis/Fleischmann Pettinger/Fehr
Battaglia Halpern Willsie
Sutherby Gordon Peat

We have a bright future, I tell you.

that's an interesting point, pgreene, which gets me to thinking about the Caps' best defensemen ever.  For those whose best (or maybe some of their better) years were here, they were brought in from someplace else . . .

Langway (MTL)
Johansson (BUF)
Tinordi (DAL)
Murphy (LAK)

Those drafted by the Caps had (or might still yet have) some of their best days somewhere else:

Stevens (NJD)
Hatcher (DAL, PIT)
Gonchar (BOS)

Examples might be found for other positions, but for defensemen, it seems true.

I listened the the WFAN feed (and all the ugly details....the wind was just right).Were my ears deceiving me or were theboobirds back, 3 years strong?If true, they were louder than the MCI (not a bust,just an observation)!

While Barker is the best defenseman in this year's crop, I've read reports that he'd only be the third or fourth best of last season, not breaking the top ten. And he's not known for his defensive prowess.

Take the best prospect you can. You can always make a trade later.

DAMN YOU PHOENIX! . . . NOW THE RANGERS ARE IN THE MIX!!

Pittsburgh: 51 (6 games left)
Columbus: 54 (7)
Washington: 55 (7) 
Chicago: 56 (8)
NY Rangers: 65 (6)
Phoenix: 66 (6)

1. Pittsburgh, 53 points (5 games left)
2. Columbus, 54 (7)
3. Washington, 55 (6)
4. Chicago, 57 (7)
5. NY Rangers, 65 (5)
6. Phoenix, 66 (6)

I believe Ovechkin is ours.

And here's one more nit to pick- perhaps the Russians won't be allowed to come out and play.........

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=531&e=9&u=/ap/20040324/ap_on_sp_ho_ne/hkn_nhl_russians

Columbus has a rough schedule, but they should be able to record two or three points.

Pittsburgh will beat us twice, so we're safe (their other games are Buffalo twice and Atlanta).

Chicago has 7 games left, but like Columbus they may only get two or three points out of them.

If we can keep the shots at 15-45, we're good. Mwahahahahaha!

The problem with this year's draft, is that there's Ovechkin... and the others. If we don't get Ovechkin, then drafting in 2nd or 5th position is practically the same thing.

I would take Ovechkin. We're a new team. What we did in the past has no importance, now. We're following a brand new direction: we're building a team with very talented kids full of promise. Lazy veterans didn't make us better, and we were not rich enough for that Rangers-like strategy, anyway (Ted admitted that George needed ten more millions to build a good team). The kids will like this new team because they will be given a full-time NHL job. They would play in the AHL with most teams... not with us. Aulin, if healthy, will get top-line minutes all season. If we draft Ovechkin and there's a season (and if there's no problem with the Russians), he makes his NHL debut in October. Our kids will grow together and become a very united team.

In soccer, Nantes and Auxerre built teams from zero with kids, and they won a championship after three or four years in the top league. We will only have to add a few veterans, good ones, not stars, with a reasonable salary (see Atlanta's McEachern and Savard, who earn $2M), and that should work.