So, what will the Caps do on June 26th? Is there a blockbuster deal coming that will enable the Caps to get another pick in the top-10? Will the Caps go off the board, shock the world and deal their number-one pick? Will George and Ross play it close to the vest and use their picks? If they do, what can we expect?
Well, if history is a guide . . .
First, there will be no big trade on draft day. In the McPhee era, there have been only four draft week trades in the seven drafts he’s overseen. None can be thought of as noteworthy – the only player the Caps have realized from them is Matt Pettinger (the product of a trade with Calgary involving a second rounder to Washington for Mikka Elomo).
I would have thought it approaching a betting certainty that the Caps would have moved players at last year’s draft. Nothing happened. I don’t think the Caps are nearly as desperate to move players as they were last spring or even at last year’s draft. If you’re waiting on a big Caps trade in conjunction with the draft, bring a lunch – you’ve got a long wait.
Second . . . The Caps might draft Alexander Ovechkin first overall, but after that, the draft is likely to be heavily weighted to North Americans. George McPhee has had 62 picks in seven drafts. Of this, 43 (69 percent) have been from North America. More to the point, 6 of 8 top-50 picks have been from North America (the two Europeans were Russian Alexander Semin – 13th in 2002, and Czech Michal Sivek – 29th in 1999).
Third, and here is where the Caps almost have to break with history . . . the Caps have tended to go with forwards with their high picks. Of the 14 top-50’s in the McPhee era, 8 were spent on forwards, 5 on defensemen, and one goaltender.
Fourth . . . the top-50’s have not been particularly kind. Among the eight forwards; Sutherby, Pettinger, Semin, Gordon, and Fehr remain in the organization. None have yet distinguished themselves (Semin is probably the most developed for his role at this point). Among the five defensemen; Nick Boynton and Ross Lupaschuk are gone, J-F Fortin is a shrinking prospect (if the term can still be used), Nolan Yonkman can’t seem to remain vertical, and Steve Eminger didn’t have a particularly noteworthy experience in Portland after being sent down. Not only has the only goalie – Jomar Cruz – never played an NHL game, he’s never played a game in a major minor league.
Fifth . . . If the top 50’s have been unproven, the lower rounds have been a disaster, and the Caps simply can’t afford a repeat of that history this year. This is where a clear drafting bias with the Caps really manifests itself. The Caps have drafted more players from the Western Hockey League in Canadian major juniors in picks 51-on (12) that any other entire country over the seven-draft period (the most they’ve drafted from any other country in this group is from the US – nine total). And it’s not like the Caps have found any gems in that group. Jakub Cutta is perhaps the gem of this particular WHL cohort . . . a fact that probably doesn’t make many Caps fans happy.
Sixth . . . Of the 62 draft picks in the McPhee era, only 10 have played as many as 10 games in the NHL, and three of those have done it with other teams (Boynton, Beech, Sivek). None . . . none past the 43rd pick (Pettinger) have played as many as ten games. If one is going to look at the “valedictorians” of the McPhee drafts, they might be as follows:
1997: Nick Boynton (w/ Boston)
1998: Rastislav Stana
1999: Kris Beech (w/ Pittsburgh)
2000: Brian Sutherby
2001: Owen Fussey
2002: Alexander Semin
2003: Eric Fehr
Seventh . . . Looking forward to the June 26th draft, if you assume that the Caps are going to go for defensemen after Ovechkin, they might be looking elsewhere than the Western Hockey League. Of the 17 defensemen drafted in the McPhee era, only five have come from the WHL. Four have come from the OHL, four from Europe, three from the QMJHL, and one from the NCAA. Only one WHL-drafted defenseman (Yonkman) has played as many as ten games in the NHL. Only four of 17 overall have.
Eighth . . . the Caps haven’t gotten much, if any value, from anywhere other than Canada. No US player has been drafted higher than 83rd (Stephen Werner). After Alexander Semin as a 12th overall, the next Russian is Ivan Nepraiyev (163rd in 2000). No Swede has ever been drafted in the top 100, ditto for every other European country save Czech Republic (Michal Sivek, 29th in 1999). In summary, the Caps have had 23 top-100 picks in the McPhee era. 20 have been from Canada.
I think if one looks hard at the Caps draft history in the McPhee era, a few unpleasant facts surface. Performance at the top of the draft has not been bad, but it hasn’t been particularly remarkable. Perhaps the best value for high end draft picks was being able to package Beech (7), Sivek (29), and Lupaschuk (34) for Jaromir Jagr and Frantisek Kucera, but even that, after all the deals that came later, left the Caps with only Jared Aulin. After that, there has been no impact player from any Caps draft since 1997. Part of this is a product of the performance of the team itself. They haven’t been bad enough (until this year) to get that high, top-five pick from which an impact player can be had. There have been only two top-ten picks in the McPhee era, none in the top-five.
After one gets past the top of the draft, the record deteriorates quickly. For a team to have not a single draft pick past the second round in any of the last seven drafts play as many as ten NHL games in their career boggles the mind. Two Europeans in this span (including one no longer with the team) have played in ten career NHL games.
Let’s be plain . . . the Caps amateur scouting has not performed very well. This is arguably the most important draft for the future of this franchise. With no fewer than five picks in the first two rounds, they can’t afford to be wrong, and they can’t afford comfortable biases, especially as a team that is returning to a “build through the draft” strategy.
So, who will the Caps draft? . . . Sorry, that I’ll leave up to The Peerless Prognosticator.
___________
Play hard, shake hands, drink beer.
"LA needs two hockey teams like Switzerland needs two navies" -- Norman Chad (from "My 10-Point Plan to Save Gary Bettman from Himself")
"Playoff hockey is the best two months in team sports . . . period."
-- Mitch Albom
