According to TSN.ca, this is what the Caps have to start with:
Olaf Kolzig: $4.94 million
Alexander Semin: $900,600
Boyd Gordon: $900,600
Darcy Verot: $304,000
4 Players; $7,045,200.
Assuming AO signs for the rookie max, bump that total up to $7,895,000. So, that gives the Caps up to $31,104,800 to sign 18 other players.
For starters, let's take a look at our own free agents:
Restricted Free Agents:
Josef Boumedienne
Jason Doig
Jared Aulin
Steve Eminger
Jeff Halpern
Stephen Peat
Matt Pettinger
Brian Sutherby
Roman Tvrdon
Trent Whitfield
Brian Willsie
Brendan Witt
Dainius Zubrus.
The Caps could conceivably keep all 13 of these guys and leave 5 slots available for free agent signings and prospects, including Kolzig's backup. But with Darcy Verot under contract, I don't see a need for Peat to hang around. Tvordon's stats indicate he won't make much of an impact at the NHL level, so I'll let him go as well.
I don't anticipate any player from the above list asking for the $7.8 million max, but I do see Witt taking no less than $1.672M (a 24% rollback on his $2.2M arbtration reward), Halpern getting roughly $2M, and Zubrus getting somewhere in between (for the sake of argument, let's say about $1.8M).
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Bates Battaglia
Jean-Luc Grand Pierre
Craig Johnson
Kip Miller
Brad Norton
John Gruden
Sebastien Charpentier
Matthew Yeats
If it were up to me, I'd let 'em all go.
Finally, we have a few prospects that could (or should) make the big club this season:
Shaone Morrisonn
Maxime Ouellet
Eric Fehr
Nolan Yonkman
Jakub Cutta
Owen Fussey
Jakub Klepis
I see no reason why Morrisonn and Ouellet should make the Caps roster this season. I have never seen Eric Fehr play, so in his case I'm on the fence - if only by default. But for this analysis, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The only way Yonkman stays up is if he has a stellar camp while staying healthy. I have never been sold on Jakub Cutta. He should be traded for something better immediately. I have seen little of Owen Fussey and Klepis. If I had to choose betweeh him, Klepis and Fehr, I'd choose Fehr because of his size and offensive upside.
So, with what we have currently signed, what our 3 top guys could earn, and then signing the remaining 8 RFAs and 4 propsects anywhere between $300k and $1M (bet on an average salary hovering around that range's median of $650k, unless one could make a strong argument why any forward other than Halpern or Zubrus should make more than Semin or Gordon and why any defenseman should make more than Witt), we are left with 3 roster spots and roughly $17.8M to spend, which gives the Caps some flexibility to:
-Stick with the youth movement, fill the roster spots with kids, and save the team some money
or...
-Noodle around in the Free Agent Market
The post-lockout Washington Capitals should be built upon youth and speed (Ovechkin, Semin, Gordon, Sutherby, Eminger, Morrisonn, Ouellet) complemented by toughness and leadership (Halpern, Witt, Zubrus, Kolzig), with a sprinkle of value-added veteran experience, which is what I wish management's mind set will be when dipping into the Free Agent Market.
So, what exactly could this team find useful that the Free Agent Market could provide?
1. A reliable top-pair defenseman with deep playoff experience who can move the puck out of the zone efficiently, be a reliable pointman on the power play, and can tutor the young defensemen on the ice.
Who could be out there? Brian Leetch, Mathieu Schneider, Adam Foote
Who do we have a better chance of nabbing? Brian Rafalski, Adrian Aucoin
Will we? Possibly the former, unless the Devils lose Scott Niedermayer. Unsure about the latter.
2. A tough forward -- again, with deep playoff experience -- who can play on the 2nd or 3rd line, hits like there's no tomorrow, who can play well on the PK and instill grit in the kids.
Who would I love to get? Darren McCarty, Kirk Maltby.
Who do we have a better chance of nabbing? Mike Keane.
Will we? Not sure - the guy seems to like staying in the West.
3. Peter Bondra. 'Nuff said.
Well, that's my take. Keep in mind this doesn't account for two-way contracts or players moving up and down between Hershey and DC.
I could be awfully right; or I could just be plain awful.
But hey, at least we have hockey this year and at least the team won't get contracted...this year.
Olaf Kolzig: $4.94 million
Alexander Semin: $900,600
Boyd Gordon: $900,600
Darcy Verot: $304,000
(actually to this list of players under contract I think one would add: Daigneault, Fleischmann, Fussey, Laich, Klepis, and Johansson, although I would think none would make the squad out of camp)
Now, we can start looking at the calendar . . .
July 23-29 . . . period for compliance buyouts. I wouldn’t think the Caps will be buying out anyone, even Kolzig.
July 23-28 . . . period for signing 2003 draft picks. For the Caps, that means the following are under review:
Eric Fehr
Stephen Werner
Andreas Valdix
Josh Robertson
Andrew Joudrey
Mark Olafson
Fehr is clearly the priority in this group.
July 23 -31 . . . period for extending qualifying offers. Players earning $660,000 or less will be entitled to qualifying offers (QO) at 110% of their prior year's salary; players earning more than $660,000 and up to $1 million will be entitled to QOs at 105% of prior year's salary; players earning more than $1 million will be entitled to QO at 100% of their prior year's salary. I suspect Peat and Tvrdon will not be extended a QO. The remainder will.
July 23 . . . period to negotiate with the club’s own RFA’s/UFA/s begins.
July 28 . . . deadline to exercise club and player options for 2005-06. I’m not aware of any player options that would be covered here.
July 28 . . . deadline to extend bona fide offers to 2004 draft picks. For the Caps, that group includes:
Alexander Ovechkin
Jeff Schultz
Mike Green
Christopher Bourque
Mikhail Yunkov
Sami Lepisto
Clayton Barthel
Oscar Hedman
Pasi Salonen
Peter Guggisberg
Andrew Gordon
Justin Mrazek
Travis Morin
I don’t have reason to believe that any would not be extended a “bona fide” offer to all in this group.
July 30 . . . entry draft
August 1 . . . free agency signing period begins (it ends 12/1, after which unsigned RFAs cannot play for the balance of the season)
So, with all that, what might the basic parent roster look like?
Goalies: Kolzig, Ouellet
Defensemen: Witt, Doig, Eminger, Morrisonn, Boumedienne
Centers: Halpern, Klepis, Sutherby, Whitfield, Verot
Wingers: Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus, Gordon, Aulin, Willsie, Pettinger (I think Fehr ends up in Hershey)
The draft comes first, and given the Caps comparative misfortune (drafting 14th despite finishing 28th in the league in 2003-2004), that will mean going for the dreaded “best player available.” Given the Caps history, I’d guess that means a winger from out west. That might suggest someone like Kenndal McArdle (LW) out of Moose Jaw. Given the flipped order of draft and free agency period opening, and given the team the Caps might have available at the moment to ice, I suspect that means the Caps will go shopping for a stay-at-home defenseman, perhaps a center.
This has the look and feel of 30 expansion teams.
___________
Play hard, shake hands, drink beer.
"LA needs two hockey teams like Switzerland needs two navies" -- Norman Chad (from "My 10-Point Plan to Save Gary Bettman from Himself")
If you've read this far, you probably could use a hobby
On paper, the Caps are a one-line team in dire need of a #1-#2 defensman.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect them to compete for a playoff spot this upcoming season, but I would like to see at least two quality veterans added to this roster (one forward, one especially on defense) that can accelerate the kids' development on the ice and still be around with them when this team becomes competitive (which would be -- one would hope -- sooner rather than later because of their addition).
The Caps have a lot of roster filling to do, not just on the parent roster, but in Hershey. I would expect them to be looking hard at mid-range players -- both forwards and defense -- in free agency. I think this is going to be a pretty grim year for the club. The phrase, "Kessel Watch" will be seen from time to time.
___________
Play hard, shake hands, drink beer.
"LA needs two hockey teams like Switzerland needs two navies" -- Norman Chad (from "My 10-Point Plan to Save Gary Bettman from Himself")
If you've read this far, you probably could use a hobby
I kinda get the feeling that it may be a LONG season for the Caps and their fans.
I wonder what the attendance will be like half way through the season if the Caps suck as badly as I think they might.
If anything, I think the Caps will have fewer standings points this year thanin 2003-2004. That team had players like Bondra, Konowalchuk, Lang, Nylander, Gonchar, and Jagr for a potion of the year (geez, how did they suck so bad?).
This club is likely to have rookies -- or the next best thing -- staring on the first line (Ovechkin), defense (Eminger, Morrisonn) and in goal (Ouellet, especially when Kolzig is moved next spring, which I regard as a near certainty). They will not be deep in other places, and they won't overspend on FA's.
This team might not break 50 standings points.
As for attendance, I do not think they will sell out any game this year, including opening night and the game(s) against Pittsburgh pitting the irresistable force and the immovable object. In the dead of winter, the club will be drawing 8,000 for games during the week against the likes of Carolina or Buffalo.
This is going to be one ugly year.
But remember, in 2000-2001, Tampa Bay had 59 points. They had only 69 points the year after. Two years later, they were skating around the rink with the Cup. It will take longer for the Caps, but it is doable by 2010.
___________
Play hard, shake hands, drink beer.
"LA needs two hockey teams like Switzerland needs two navies" -- Norman Chad (from "My 10-Point Plan to Save Gary Bettman from Himself")
If you've read this far, you probably could use a hobby
So is there at least another Ovechkin or Crosby that we might be able to look forward to in next year's draft considering how bad the team might be this year?
I'd be happy with Hatcher or McCarty too. That being said, I doubt that's going to happen.
-------------------------------------------- "Just when you think you've idiot-proofed something, they build a better idiot" - Unofficial IBM employee slogan
This message has been edited by CalgaryCaps on Jul 26, 2005 2:29 AM
Well, they've got to sign somebody. Otherwise, they're not going to get to the $21.5 million floor (unless they want to pay Dainius Zubrus $4 million).
___________
Play hard, shake hands, drink beer.
"LA needs two hockey teams like Switzerland needs two navies" -- Norman Chad (from "My 10-Point Plan to Save Gary Bettman from Himself")
If you've read this far, you probably could use a hobby
Kessel
Don't hold your breath.
caps will finish deadlast and lose the lottery thingy.
Many,many years of Capaholicism makes me believe that this will happen.
It just seems so Cappyish !
I disagree about the fact that keeping Verot would make Peat expendable. They're very different players, plus we need guys in Portland Hershey, too. We've offered Peat a contract, anyway.
It's true that so far, our star will be a kid who has never played a game in the NHL.
Hmmmmm, maybe I'm stupid but I think we will have a decent season. Look at the rest of our division. As of now, with the loss of Khabibulin it looks like a near lock for Atlanta if they can get anything going defensively. Other than that I think it's a toss up, and I think we are way better off than Carolina or Florida. Ted started the jettison before most teams did, and what I saw at the end of the last season showed some promise. Hanlon is a good coach IMO. While I don't think we will have the cup this year, I don't think we will be as horrid as we probably should be.
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HULK SMASH!!!!
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