Tonight:

Boston-Montréal: go, Canadiens!

Toronto-Ottawa: I guess the Sens are out of reach, and the Leafs could be 2 points behind the Caps with as many games if they won, so, go, Sens!

Tampa Bay-Florida: go, Lightning!

***

Before the game (with no privilege to division leaders):

4) Ottawa, 89 pts/74 games
5) NY Rangers, 88/75
6) Carolina, 87/76
7) Philadelphia, 84/75
8) Boston, 83/74

9) Washington, 82/76
10) Buffalo, 81/75
11) Florida, 79/75
12) Toronto, 78/75

***

We need Boston to lose two or three in a row, but it could happen, because they're 2-5-3 in their last 10.

And of course, nothing's going in the right direction.

Boston-Montréal: 2-2, with 4:30 left (I'm listening to the French announcers).

Florida is leading Tampa 4-1... oh, 4-2 now, but it's still a win (less than a minute left).

Toronto is leading Ottawa 5-4 with 1:17 left.

Florida won 4-2, final.

Toronto won 5-4. Silly game. Toronto was leading 2-1. Ottawa scored 3 goals in 2:27 to take a 4-2 lead, then Toronto scored 3 goals in 3:08 (with the second intermission before the tying goal).

The Canadiens spent the last 1:46 of regulation time on the PK, but didn't give up any goal. Overtime. At least one point for Boston.

Last 14 seconds killed, then huge save by Thomas in front of Gorges, after a great pass from Kovalev.

Last minute. Markov, Plekanec... checked by Chara.

Gorges, Grabovski...

Counter-attack by Axelsson.

Empty net.

Whistle. One second left. We're gonna have a shootout... although... Canadiens with an empty net, hehe.

It was 1.7, it's now 2 seconds left.

They had the time to shoot, but it will be a shootout.

Canadiens won the shootout.

4) Ottawa, 89 pts/75 games
5) NY Rangers, 88/75
6) Carolina, 87/76
7) Philadelphia, 84/75
8) Boston, 84/75

9) Washington, 82/76
10) Buffalo, 81/75
11) Florida, 81/76
12) Toronto, 80/76

Tomorrow: Philadelphia vs. NY Islanders.

Yes, not a good night for Caps' fans. Six teams vying for 2 spots..... and some of them with games in hand. The Caps pretty much have to win out and try to catch the 'Canes.

Caps have to get 6 more points than them in 6 games. It seems impossible, but...

if the Caps win their 6 last games, that would mean at least two defeats for the 'Canes, hopefully in regulation. So they'd only have to lose one more game to be behind the Caps.

Flyers win, 4-1.

Yes.

4) Ottawa, 89 pts/75 games
5) NY Rangers, 88/75
6) Carolina, 87/76
7) Philadelphia, 86/76
8) Boston, 84/75

9) Washington, 82/76
10) Buffalo, 81/75
11) Florida, 81/76
12) Toronto, 80/76

Montréal beat Ottawa yesterday, but it doesn't change much the Caps' situation:

4) Ottawa, 89 pts/76 games
5) NY Rangers, 88/75
6) Carolina, 87/76
7) Philadelphia, 86/76
8) Boston, 84/75

9) Washington, 82/76
10) Buffalo, 81/75
11) Florida, 81/76
12) Toronto, 80/76

Tonight, needless to say that we gotta defeat the Hurricanes. Boston plays in Toronto. If they lose, and the Caps win, the Bruins should still be 8th, because they have one game in hand.

Worst scenario:

Buffalo beats Ottawa, Florida beats the Bolts, and the Caps lose to the 'Canes in regulation.... Toronto does beat Boston, but in OT, and.....

the Caps wake up in 12th, Carolina out of reach, and teams just ahead of them with games in hand.

Yikes!

After yesterday's games:

4) Ottawa, 91 points/77 games
5) NY Rangers, 89/76
6) Carolina, 88/77
7) Philadelphia, 88/77
8) Boston, 86/76

9) Washington, 84/77
10) Buffalo, 81/76
11) Florida, 81/77
12) Toronto, 80/77

If Caps win their 5 remaining games, Buffalo, Florida and Toronto won't be able to catch them. They can now focus on the teams which are ahead of them.

No game concerning the Capitals tonight.

Scenarios, at Japersrink:

http://www.japersrink.blogspot.com/

Bad news for the Caps tonight- Hurricanes crushed the Thrashers 7-1, and the Flyers got 1 point by taking the Devils to a shootout. Buffalo is beating the Canadiens as well....

edit: Buffalo lost, but in OT. They are now 2 points behind the Caps, and even in games played.

Boston crushed Ottawa today (Saturday), 4-0.

Beginning to look like if there's any chance at all, it will only be to catch the Flyers....

1) Montréal, 98 points/78 games - QUALIFIED
2) Pittsburgh, 97/78 - QUALIFIED

3) New Jersey, 93/78
4) Ottawa, 92/79
5) NY Rangers, 91/77
6) Carolina, 90/78 (42 wins)
7) Boston, 90/78 (40 wins)
8) Philadelphia, 89/78

9) Washington, 86/78
10) Buffalo, 84/78
11) Florida, 81/78

12) Toronto, 80/78 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 75/78 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 72/79 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 69/77 - OUT

This includes the Bruins' last game.

Caps are 39-31-8. After tonight's game, they may have more wins than losses (40-39) for the first time since the very beginning of the season.

They need to beat the 'Canes in regulation, and they also need the 'Canes to lose one more in regulation (or two in OT/SO). I like this scenario better, because the Caps can do half of it, while for the Flyers, they can only sit and watch.

If the Caps win tonight, and the 'Canes lose in regulation, the Caps will know that winning the last three games will AUTOMATICALLY qualify them for the playoffs... even if the Flyers have more points than them!!!

OH, WAIT! I was dreaming. The 'Canes have 42 wins, so this won't work.

So if the Caps win tonight, and the 'Canes lose in regulation, we'll still need the 'Canes to lose one more, even in overtime or in the shootout (and of course the Caps would have to win their last three games without giving up any point to the 'Canes).

Flyers in their last 5 games: 4 wins (only 2 in regulation) and a SO loss. 9 points out of 10, but only 2 regulation wins, and that was after 4 consecutive defeats (2 in OT). 7-3-4 in March.

'Canes in their last 5 games: 4-0-1 (with a win and a loss in the shootout). 9 points out of 10 too, but more convincing. 9-1-1 in March.

Caps in their last 5 games: 4-1. 9-4 in March.

Bruins won 3 in a row, but they're 6-5-4 in March, so they could start losing again, but maybe not without getting some points.

Hmmm... 'k, we'll see. Go, Caps!

I was thinking... the 'Canes may fear the Caps, but they're actually in a great situation. First, they don't have to care about anyone else than the Caps.

They know that they only have to win 2 or their last 4 games to make the playoffs, no matter how.

And they can actually make the playoffs with only one win... if they beat the Caps in regulation.

Other scenarios: Caps win their last 4 games, and at least one of the six teams ahead of them loses most of its remaining games (depending on how many points they have now... for instance, Devils would have to lose their last 4 games in regulation, and Rangers would have to be 1-3-1 at best).

1) Montréal, 98 points/79 games - QUALIFIED
2) Pittsburgh, 97/78 - QUALIFIED

3) New Jersey, 93/78
4) Ottawa, 92/79
5) NY Rangers, 91/77
6) Philadelphia, 91/79
7) Carolina, 90/79 (42 wins)
8) Boston, 90/78 (40 wins)

9) Washington, 88/79
10) Buffalo, 84/78

11) Toronto, 82/79 - OUT
12) Florida, 81/79 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 76/79 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 72/79 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/78 - OUT

The Caps actually killed the Panthers' last hopes, yesterday, and the Sabres' chances are still very slim.

The Pens beat the Rangers 3-1 this afternoon. Good for the Caps. The Rangers are stuck at 91 points, but still have one game in hand.

The two teams meet again tomorrow. Hope the Pens will do the same.

Tonight, Boston will play in Buffalo. The Caps need to win their last three games, so normally, they have nothing to fear from the Sabres, who need to win tonight to stay in the race. I guess if they could do that in regulation, that would help the Caps.

Sabres beat the Bruins like I hoped, but only in overtime, 2-1.

1) Pittsburgh, 99 points/79 games - QUALIFIED
2) Montréal, 98/79 - QUALIFIED

3) New Jersey, 93/78
4) Ottawa, 92/79
5) NY Rangers, 91/78
6) Philadelphia, 91/79
7) Boston, 91/79
8) Carolina, 90/79

9) Washington, 88/79
10) Buffalo, 86/79

11) Toronto, 82/79 - OUT
12) Florida, 81/79 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 76/79 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 72/79 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/78 - OUT

I've added the link to the highlights at the bottom of this page, and removed two links that didn't work anymore (Ovechkin Videos 1 and Dee's Photos).

Rangers beat the Pens tonight in OT, so.... 93 points for the rags. Only way the Caps can beat them is win out, and the Rangers lose the rest.

1) Pittsburgh, 100 points/80 games - QUALIFIED
2) Montréal, 98/79 - QUALIFIED

3) New Jersey, 93/78
4) NY Rangers, 93/79
5) Ottawa, 92/79
6) Philadelphia, 91/79
7) Boston, 91/79
8) Carolina, 90/79

9) Washington, 88/79
10) Buffalo, 86/79

11) Toronto, 82/79 - OUT
12) Florida, 81/79 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 76/79 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 74/80 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/79 - OUT

The only decently reachable teams, now, are Philadelphia, Boston and Carolina. And I guess having the same total of points as Carolina after tonight's game would help.

To make the playoffs, the Caps probably have no other option than winning their last three games. That would mean having won 11 of their last 12 games. Unfortunately, that may not be enough.

After tonight's games:

1) Pittsburgh, 100 points/80 games - QUALIFIED
2) Montréal, 100/80 - QUALIFIED
3) New Jersey, 95/79 - QUALIFIED

4) NY Rangers, 93/79 (41 wins)
5) Ottawa, 92/80 (42 wins)
6) Boston, 91/79 (40 wins)
7) Philadelphia, 91/79 (40 wins)
8) Carolina, 90/80 (42 wins)

9) Washington, 90/80 (41 wins)
10) Buffalo, 88/80 (38 wins)

11) Toronto, 83/80 - OUT
12) Florida, 83/80 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 77/80 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 74/81 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/79 - OUT

***

Tie Breaking Procedure

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:
1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

***

Boston appears ahead of Philadelphia on NHL.com, I guess thanks to tiebreaker #3.

In my rankings, the division leaders are in bold, and are in their true position, to compare things easier.

Not even halfway tonight, the 'Canes lead Tampa Bay 4-1 ....

NJ-Boston 1-1 in the 2nd, the Flyers lead the Pens 2-1 end 1st....

 

Boston leads 2-1 after 2....

Carolina eventually won 6-2. We need them to lose their last game (even in OT or in the SO) to keep a chance to win the division title.

12 seconds left in OT in New Jersey... Shootout, now. It was 2-2 at the end of regulation.

Malkin has two points, and the Pens are leading the Flyers 3-2, with 15 minutes left to the game.

Shootout in NJ:

Metropolit for Bruins... nice move, but he misses the net!
Gionta... backhand, wide.

Kessel... save by Brodeur.
Elias... 4/4 this season... tries to go five-hole, save by Thomas.

Krejci... denied by Brodeur.
Langenbrunner, the captain... stopped by Thomas.

Sturm... save, Brodeur.
Parise... backhand, scores! Devils win the extra point.

Could have been worse.

The Canes won tonight, 6-2 (92 points).

Boston-NJ, Devils win the shootout, so Boston has 1 point tonight (92).... 

The Pens need a win to clinch the division title. And now the Pens' announcer says that many Caps fans probably follow this game and want the Pens to win, LOL! Sure. And in regulation, please.

Knuble to the box, with 2:48 left, Pens on the PP.

The radio crashes, I restart it, and hear that Pens scored. Crosby, on the PP. "Between his legs and into the net. Are you kidding me?" Hehe. 4-2 Pens.

Flyers pull their goalie and get the extra attacker.

Pens called for icing.

41.5 seconds left to go. Too bad the Flyers have two games to play after this one.

10 seconds... Pens have the puck, and win. Yay! At least some good news tonight, but the 'Canes losing would have been much better.

1) Pittsburgh, 102 points/81 games - QUALIFIED
2) Montréal, 100/80 - QUALIFIED
3) New Jersey, 97/80 - QUALIFIED

4) NY Rangers, 93/79 (41 wins)
5) Ottawa, 92/80 (42 wins)
6) Boston, 92/80 (40 wins)
7) Carolina, 92/81 (43 wins)
8) Philadelphia, 91/80 (40 wins)

9) Washington, 90/80 (41 wins)
10) Buffalo, 88/80 (38 wins)

11) Toronto, 83/80 - OUT
12) Florida, 83/80 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 77/80 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 74/81 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/80 - OUT

If the Caps beat Tampa tomorrow, they'll be in a playoff berth, but the Flyers will have two games to play after that and the Caps only one. The good news is that if the Flyers get 3 points out of their last 2 games, and the Caps 4, the Caps make the playoffs. That's not what I would call a miracle, so we can still have reasonable hopes. Considering the fact that the Flyers will host two of the best three teams of the conference (Devs and Pens), and the Caps host crappy teams, I even think that the Caps have more chances to make it than not.

The 'Canes have one game left (vs. Florida) and if they lose it, the Caps can win the division and maybe kick the 'Canes out of the playoffs.

If the Bruins lose 1 of their last 2 games, the Caps can overtake them too.

If the Sens only get 1 point out of their last 2 games, the Caps can overtake them.

Lastly, same scenario for the Rangers, but that would be 1 point out of their last 3 games.

Mike Vogel: "And if you really want to simplify it, the Caps are in if they win out and the Friday BOS-OTT game is settled in regulation, regardless of who wins it."

I said, "If the Sens only get 1 point out of their last 2 games, the Caps can overtake them." I had noticed that, if the Caps won 2 and the Sens lost 1 in regulation, both teams would have 94 points and 43 wins, but I was too lazy to check tiebreaker #3. I guess Vogel did, and in conclusion, I'd say the Caps have high chances to make the playoffs if they win out, because chances that the Flyers lose one of their games (even in OT or in the SO) are good, and chances that Boston-Ottawa doesn't go to overtime are good too. We only need one of those two (plus two wins for the Caps).

I'll even say that making the playoffs with only 3 more points, or 2, or even only 1, would not be a miracle, because the Flyers might very well lose their last two games in regulation.

EDIT: But the Sabres?

If the Flyers lose both games in regulation and the Caps only get one point, the Sabres would have to win out to kick the Caps out of the playoffs.

If the Flyers lose both games in regulation, the Caps get two points in any manner, and the Sabres win out, the Caps are qualified, and Flyers and Sabres are out.

Yesterday's games:

NYR 3 - NYI 0
TAM 1 - WAS 4
OTT 8 - TOR 2
BUF 1 - MTL 3

No overtime either in the 6 western-conference games.

Standings:

1) Pittsburgh, 102 points/81 games - QUALIFIED
2) Montréal, 102/81 - QUALIFIED
3) New Jersey, 97/80 - QUALIFIED
4) NY Rangers, 95/80 - QUALIFIED

5) Ottawa, 94/81 (42 wins)
6) Boston, 92/80 (40 wins)
7) Carolina, 92/81 (43 wins)
8) Washington, 92/81 (42 wins)

9) Philadelphia, 91/80 (40 wins)

10) Buffalo, 88/81 - OUT
11) Toronto, 83/81 - OUT
12) Florida, 83/80 - OUT
13) NY Islanders, 77/81 - OUT
14) Atlanta, 74/81 - OUT
15) Tampa Bay, 71/81 - OUT

Tonight's games:

Islanders are leading 1-0 at Rangers, with 1:17 left to the first period.

Flyers are leading Devils 1-0, first intermission.

Panthers leading 'Canes 2-1, end first too, mwahaha! If they can beat the 'Canes tonight (even in OT), and lose in regulation against the Caps, that will be perfect.

Bruins-Sens, just started.

About the Bruins-Sens game: Sens need one point tonight to escape from the Caps; Bruins (who will also play vs. Buffalo tomorrow) need 3 points in their last two games to escape from the Caps.

Worst scenario: Bruins win in OT or in the SO (Sens are safe), and get at least one point out of their last game.

Best scenario: either Bruins or Sens lose in regulation tonight, and the Caps only need to win their last game to make the playoffs.

***

'Canes: they need a win to clinch the division title. They could win the title with only one point, if the Caps don't win their last game; or with a loss tonight, if the Caps lose too.

To escape from the Caps, they need to win.

***

Flyers: they need two wins to escape from the Caps. They'd have to beat the Devils and the Penguins for that, though, but sometimes weird things happen.

***

So yes, the Caps can miss the playoffs even if they win out: Bruins win in OT tonight: Sens have 95 points. Then Bruins don't lose their last game in regulation and have 95 or 96 points. 'Canes win tonight and have 94 points, but with the tiebreaker in their favor. Flyers win their last two games and have 95 points.

Hopefully, the first part of this scenario won't happen tonight.

Same scores with ten more minutes of play, except that Islanders are now leading the Rangers 2-1.

So far, the only good news for the Caps are the Panthers leading the Hurricanes 2-1, but that may not last.

Rangers tied the game for the second time, but Islanders took the lead again, this time on a short-handed goal. 3-2. This game has no importance for the Caps, though.

Flyers are still leading 1-0 after 40 minutes of play.

Panthers added a goal, but 'Canes reduced the score. It's now 3-2 Panthers.

Bruins-Sens: still 0-0 after about 23 minutes of play.

Panthers score short-handed, with 12 seconds to the second period, and it's now 4-2 Florida.

If the 'Canes lose tonight (EDIT: in regulation), the Caps only need one point to win the division.

Chara scored his 17th goal, and the Bruins are now leading 1-0 in Ottawa. Mid-game.

Flyers are really trying to save their life, there: shots are 32-14 Flyers, with 15 minutes left. Brodeur only gave up one early in the game.