I would like to start off by saying that I am by no means an expert. Far from it. I have met none of these young men nor have I seen them play a single minute of any game.
I am a Saginaw Spirit fan who decided to bury himself in the draft talk over the past year both online and offline because Saginaw would have a top five pick and I care about the future of the team, as we are in a rebuilding mode, picking up the pieces of the old North Bay franchise.
About four or five months ago I passed along a list that I saw on the New OHL Open Forum. It was well written, well thought out, and I really only wanted to see your response to it. Many of you on this board would give me credit for it, but I had nothing to do with its creation. Many of you also wanted an updated list (new order, some picks falling and rising etc.).
I can assure you that this list will be the product of slightly educated guessing. I do not know the tendencies of OHL GMs, but having seen every OHL team this past year in action, I have a basic idea of what their needs are. I also do not know if the value of an eligible player has risen or fallen over the past few months (since the first list). The only thing I can do is gauge the posts I have read both on this board, the NOOF, the Junior A board, the hockeyscouting.ca forum, and the various OHL team message boards.
With that explanation out of the way, here is my crazy wild guess at how this will end up. Remember, my guess is as good as anyone else's.
1. Saginaw Spirit - Steve Spade D (Georgetown Raiders Jr. A)
It has been rumored for a while now, and it will all be made official on draft day. Saginaw has three 1986 forwards and would like to add a young defenseman to that core. The fact that Spade spent last year in Jr. A (and went deep into the playoffs with Georgetown) can only help him. Saginaw is looking for a defensive defenseman, one who can clear out the front of the net and steer rebounds aside. The Spirit will spend a lot of time in their own end next year and they will need a strong young man who can take the pounding.
2. Sudbury Wolves - Chris Lawrence C (Toronto Marlies AAA)
Sudbury has needs on both ends of the ice. However, with their coaching situation still uncertain, they need a young man who is sold on the OHL. Ryan and Heshmatpour are still waffling on what they want to do, and Cogliano is apparently signed sealed and delivered to Michigan. Lawrence is a name I hadn't heard about until I read the Sudbury Star. He is a big strong kid that the Wolves are pretty high on. They compare his size and speed to Rick Nash.
3. Kingston Frontenacs - Elgin Reid D (Leamington Flyers Jr. B)
Kingston was burned last year drafting O'Neill who ended up in Green Bay. They refuse to go down that road again and select a player they know will report. Kingston also needs defense, so they will take the best defenseman available that will report.
4. Erie Otters - Ryan Parent D (Waterloo Siskins Jr. B)
Erie needs a defenseman now that Carlo Colaiacovo has played his last game as an Otter (and is now headed for the Maple Leafs). Parent will remind them of Carlo.
5. Mississauga IceDogs - Wes Cunningham D (Chatham Maroons Jr. B)
Mississauga needs defense as well, good for them that the front end of this draft is loaded with them. Cunningham basically falls into their lap at the five spot.
6. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds - Marc Staal D (Thunder Bay Minor Midget)
The Soo Greyhounds need someone to replace Trevor Daley who will definitely be headed to the Dallas Stars next year. They jump at the chance to get Staal, who obviously benefits from the Staal hockey genes. And, because the Soo is the closest team to Thunder Bay, they are also banking on a bit of the hometown factor. There is also no doubt that this kid will play in the OHL, despite the Soo's coaching situation.
7. Owen Sound Attack - Tom Mannino RW (Leamington Flyers Jr. B)
Owen Sound sits in shock as the first six picks have basically been a defenseman bonanza. They won't join the fun as they pick a big strong pure goal scorer who should fit right in on right wing.
8. Guelph Storm - Bryan Little F (Cambridge Winter Hawks Jr. B)
A twenty goal scorer in Junior B this past season, he fits the Storm mold: small, smart, quick, and can bury it in the back of the net. MVP of the most recent Mid-Western Junior B All Star Game.
9. Barrie Colts - Matt Leszczynski RW (Sudbury Northern Wolves Jr. A)
Barrie takes a tough strong winger (that has some skill) with their first round pick.
10. London Knights - Michael Lombardi F (Vaughan Kings AAA)
The Knights take Vaughan's captain, a strong tough player who can't be bumped off the puck. London is looking for some goal scoring production but a young man like this will help dig it out of the corner and feed it in front so guys like Cory Perry can bury it.
11. Oshawa Generals - Trevor Solomon D (Sault Ste. Marie North Stars AAA)
Oshawa needs a defenseman but all the elite were taken at this point. They go with the best left up on the board, ignoring Hesh (everyone assumes he is going NCAA and takes a pass early in the first round). Solomon is 6'2" and a young 87, who will provide grit and toughness.
12. Belleville Bulls - Bobby Bolt LW (Thunder Bay Minor Midget)
Belleville selects a big winger from the deep Thunder Bay talent pool. They think about a defenseman but instead go with offense.
13. St. Michael's Majors - Steve Downie F (Aurora Tigers Jr. A)
St. Mike's takes a young man who could have went higher if not for all the defenseman at the top of the draft. Twenty-four points in thirty-four games for the Tigers, proving he can put up some points at the junior a level.
14. Peterborough Petes - Patrick McNeill D (Strathroy Rockets Jr. B)
Dismayed that they missed out on having the rights to the Staal family legacy, they do the next best thing and get the next best defenseman available. McNeill despite his age is a top defender for his Junior B team.
15. Brampton Battalion - Steve Miller D (Thunder Bay Minor Midget)
Brampton wants a defenseman who can chip in some offense. With this pick they think they have stolen a player late who many believe to be better than his midget teammate Staal.
16. Windsor Spitfires - Jadran Beljio F (Sudbury Major Midget)
With Wellwood not far from AHL and NHL fame, Windsor needs a player that can put it in the net for years to come and still be able to play Windsor's physical brand of hockey. This young man can do both.
17. Sarnia Sting - Phil Oreskovic D (Toronto Young Nats Midget AAA)
Sarnia needs strong defense to compliment their strong forwards and so they grab Oreskovic with their first round pick.
18. Plymouth Whalers - Mark Mitera D (Detroit Little Caesar's Midget)
Knowing how to pull off a "cooked deal" of their own, Plymouth grabs the hometown Mitera with their first round pick. Playing just a stone's throw away from where his midget team was based will help Mitera decide that nagging NCAA/OHL thing pretty quick.
19. Ottawa 67s - Dan Collins RW (Syracuse Crunch Jr. A)
Killer loves highly skilled forwards, and Collins should fit right in with the 67s offense.
20. Kitchener Rangers - Tony Rizzi RW (Wellington Dukes Jr. A)
Fans of the "cooked deal" all want to believe that Kitchener will take Cogliano or Ryan with their pick, like how they managed to grab McGrath who everyone thought was going NCAA. However, it is hard to cook a deal and get away with it when you pick 20th. The Rangers need defense but instead they take the best player available.
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I will follow up this post with my second round choices. Remember this list is just as good as anyone else's, and on May 6 you can tear up all the lists and throw them in the fire except one (the real one).
well, except one 2nd round pick...
21. Saginaw Spirit - Ryan Berard F (Fort Erie Meteors Jr. B)
Saginaw's greatest need is a player who can get to rebounds and knock them in. They took the best impact player in the draft with pick #1. Now, they go for offense. Berard would look really good playing on Geoff Platt's line.
AAAAAAAAY!