The Saginaw Spirit allowed 275 goals last season in 68 total games. This amounts to 4.044 goals per game.
Sault Ste. Marie actually allowed more goals (nine) than we did despite finishing 27 points higher than us. However, they scored 74 more goals than we did, therefore having a higher goal differential (-52 versus -117).
Let's say that the defense and goaltending improves somewhat. What if we allow fewer goals, say, 240 goals this upcoming season. A good goal for points would be whatever amount is needed to make the playoffs, plus some. Guelph was the 6th seed in the West this past season, and they had 69 points. Let's set a good goal at 1.00 team points per games played, or 68 points for next season.
Based on the linear relationship I talked about in my earlier post, this would require pretty much an even goal differential, which would mean that we would need to score 240 goals. Our players would need individual goal targets that are reachable in order to meet a team goal of 240 goals. (Is this making any sense?)
For those of you still with me (and I'm not sure if even I am at this point), let's look at our likely roster and set goals for this season, which will hopefully add up to that magic 235 number.
Theoretical 1st Line: Yachmenev-Platt-Crowder
Geoff Platt was our leading scorer this past year. He scored 32 goals after scoring only 4 in his rookie season. If you look at other players who have followed similar trends, you see that this "jump year" is immediately before a true "breakout year." Therefore I think a likely goal for Platt for next season would be 40-45 goals. A scoring threat on his wing would increase his production, because there would be less focus on only him.
Denis Yachmenev scored 17 goals after scoring 17 his first year. Pretty consistent (ha). I think that he can be counted on for about 17-20 goals, he will want to step it up a little bit to impress the Florida Panthers.
Chase Crowder has a very nice shot in close to the net, and he used it to score 23 goals in 61 games in midget. Looking at production of other forwards who were late 2nd round/early 3rd round OHL picks (from the most recent draft) in their first season as 16 year olds, we see that Peter Tsimikalis had 9 goals, Craig Voakes had 11 goals, Bryan Bickell had 7 goals, and Evan Brophey had 12 goals. Therefore, if we estimate conservatively, let's give Chase a target of 7-10 goals for the season.
Line 1 Projection: 64 to 75 goals
Theoretical Line 2: Razska-Pyatt-Rizk
Jean-Michel scored 9 goals this past season. If you go by the progression Geoff Platt went on (4 goals to 32 goals) this past season, you can see that he is capable of a 30 goal season. Let's set his target at 25-30 goals.
Taylor "Tony" Raszka scored 4 goals this past season. Let's hope that he adds some muscle, plays gritty like he can, sticks his nose into trouble, and we will project that out to the 15-20 goal area.
Tom Pyatt scored 34 goals in midget. It is not out of reach therefore to say that he can fit into the 8 to 14 goal range, especially if Rizk and Raszka can light it up (and he plays with them).
Line 2 Projection: 48 to 64 goals
Theoretical Line 3: Jenish-Borges-Dix
Borges will center Saginaw's version of the "Grind Line" next season. Playing the role of Draper, the speedy centre, Borges will try to improve on his 7 goals from this past season. It is not hard to say that he will be right about where Raszka is projecting for next year, 15-20 goals.
Jesse Jenish has been used as a 4th line thumper, a defensive forward (very effectively against Ottawa), and showed some signs that he could become a potential power forward. Jesse scored 4 goals last year, and depending on the time and chances this line gets, he could score 12-18 goals next season. I would expect this line to see as much time on the ice as Flache's line last season, used as a checking line against the other team's best.
Steve Dix doesn't score a lot, but when he does, according to him, it is "top cheese." I think Steve "The Sniper" Dix is good for 3-6 goals (no, really) based on his 3 from last year. And he should gank about 180 PIMs.
Line 3 Projection: 30 to 44 goals
Theoretical 4th Line: Asselin-Rizk-Goodnough (for now)
Pat Asselin scored 34 in 52 games at the midget level. I would chalk him up just under the level I am expecting from Pyatt next season, 5 to 10 goals.
Marc-Andre Rizk will likely be a depth player next season, scratched more often than not, but will provide 4th line relief when he is called upon. He didn't score any goals in his scant ice time last year, but I think he could get at least 3 goals this season. Let's set him at 0-4 goals.
Greg Goodnough's season was cut short by injury, but he has a great shot. He scored 5 goals in a shortened season after scoring 11 during a full season. If they use him effectively (read: set him up on the power play for one-timers), and he stays healthy all year, he could bag 10-15 goals this year.
Line 4 Projection: 15 to 29 goals
Other Forwards: Import Pick, Third Overager, Mike McKenzie, Joe Milo/Mike Mills
I would expect roughly 10-25 goals from this collection, whoever they are. If we could land potentially a higher scoring overager or import player (I feel we will pick a forward), and depending on ice time, etc., blah, blah, blah...there you go.
Forwards Goal Projection: 167 to 232 goals
Defensemen: Bissonnette, MacDonell, Kozak, Sturgeon, Gibson, McNeill, Pain/Gurnoe
Paul Bissonnette scored 3 goals in his first year and 7 goals in his second year. Based on that, I will stick him in the 7-12 goal range this season.
Alex MacDonell is better known for his defense than his scoring, he had 3 goals last season. I would expect more of the same this season, 1-4 goals.
Phil Kozak is also a defenseman who I think came into his own in the second half defensively, and will become more like Sturgeon in his physical aggessiveness, defense, and hopefully his average ice time. He scored 1 goal in his limited ice time last year (spent the first half of the year as the 7th defenseman). I would target him for the 1-4 goal range Mac is in.
Adam Sturgeon is also a defensive defenseman, scored 1 goal, so I would also put him in the 1-4 area.
Adam Gibson is a much more offensive defenseman. He had 2 goals last year, but his season was limited by an injury. He has had 13 goal and 8 goal seasons. Next year, I see a return to form and 7-12 goals.
Patrick McNeill scored 6 goals at the Junior B level as a 15 year old. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to say he could have 4-7 goals this season.
Mike Pain will likely stick with the club as the 7th defenseman. Marty Gurnoe (2002 pick) may also be with the team as a depth player. Pain had 0 goals, but could nab one or two this year. I would set these two combined at 1-4 goals.
Defensive Goal Projection: 22 to 47 goals
Obviously, goalies don't score goals!
Team projection: 189 to 279 goals.
This range certainly includes the target of 240 goals. We could overachieve and score 279 goals, and be higher in the standings than expected; however, we could also underachieve and score only 189 goals. If we allow 240, that would be a difference of 51 goals. That might lead to an 8th seed (Sault Ste. Marie was 8th, -52). It might also lead us right out of the playoffs, which wouldn't be a step forward.
So, the team still has work to do (if the game was played only on my notepad that wouldn't be the case). Our team scored only 158 goals last season, so the changes in the lineup, combined with an increase in goal scoring due to a greater amount of OHL experience for our 1986 born players, should lead us to a pickup of roughly 30 goals next year.
Now, in order to give ourselves an even differential for next season, and the target of 68 points, we must also address defense. This will be the focus of my next post: Team defense and goaltending. I will look at +/- of the top teams, as well as goaltending, and see what our projections can be.
PS Jean-Michel acts like you are dogging him when you tell him he can bag 30 next year. At least this is what BPFox tells me.
KING OF THE DANCING FREAKS
