556. Petro-dollar, the cause of Iran war (7/4/08)

People think the nuclear ambition of Iran is the reason for Iran war. That is only right on Israel's part. For US part, it is petro-dollar.

US dollar is appointed currency in oil trading. Because the oil trade is a huge business, a large amount of dollar is locked up in that trade. That money is called petro-dollar. Why it is so important to US? Because it acts as a long term none interest loan The prosperous US economy partly was based on the petro-dollar - a long term loan without interest. Let me depict it in this way:

US bought a house from Japan (whom represents the oil customers of Iran) for one million dollars. US also bought another house from France (whom represents other oil customers of OPEC) for one million dollars. Japan and France use these two million dollars as fund to buy oil. The money was used in oil trading circle and never back to US. US enjoys the two houses almost free. He doesn't have to pay monthly mortgage payment. Not a penny for interest, nor for principle. All the cost was the printing of a green back paper. However, that green back paper - petro dollar, is still a debit note. How long is it? So far it's more than forty years - since dollar became the appointed oil trade currency.

But suddenly, Iran refuses to accept dollar. Japan has to ask US to exchange that one million dollar into Euro or yen. What US can do is: 1. to get the dollar back by export more merchandise. But he is not able to. He has a trade deficit already. 2. To get the dollar back with gold or foreign currency reserve. But he hasn't that much reserve. 3. To lock up that extra one million dollar in US Bond by raising the interest rate to attract the buyer. But he unwilling to do it. There is a sub-prime crisis in real estate market. Any interest increase will further devalue the house. Feds holds a large amount of real estates in my case, they don't allow such thing to happen. So to solve the problem, they go to the fourth option. 4. By pushing up the oil price.

France (other oil consumption countries) keeps one million dollar as oil trading fund. How much does he need if the oil price doubled? Two million. Thus the one million dollar Japan abandoned is absorbed by France. That's why the oil price jumped like crazy in recent days - a tricky way to keep US dollar from collapsing.

US has to pay for high oil price too. Ordinary people bear the cost. But the high oil price will hurt the economy. The condition won't last long. So war on Iran is unavoidable.

Of course, US is a "democratic" country. It can't start a war because others refusing to use its currency. Then beware of another 911 style false flag attack.

We know there was an incident of live nuclear head weapons being carried over the continental US by a B-52 last August. There is attempt of dirty bomb attack in Houston this year.
Quote, "State of Emergency: The US in the Final Six Months of the George W. Bush Administration
by Lewis Seiler and Dan Hamburg
June 13, 2008 by CommonDreams.org
.......
Former National Security Agency analyst and naval intelligence officer Wayne Madsen has been in Houston investigating the Carnaby case at great personal risk. Madsen believes Carnaby was involved both in heading off a potential war with Iran (by leaking Mossad plans to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah just days before Carnaby himself was killed) and in trying to forestall a potential terrorist attack on the port.
According to Madsen, federal agents in Houston fear that another 9/11-type part false flag attack is imminent, perhaps as early as July 4........

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/06/13/9596/

Another time factor for Iran war is the Olympic Game in August. China has interest in Iran. He is an oil customer of Iran. Olympic Game could be an extortion chip for China's support in Iran war.

3. The main reason is not supply and demand. It's US manipulating the oil price by oil reserve and future contract.

(1) Quote, "The former Fed chief also detailed how investors, rather than users of oil, have come to set the price of oil through purchasing futures contracts." Though Greespan use "investors" instead of "speculators".

(2) From supply side:

08-03-05. OPEC to maintain current production; blames US for economic mismanagement
Published: Wednesday, March 5, 2008 | 3:03 PM ET
Canadian Press: William Kole, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

OPEC President Chakib Khelil told reporters the global market is being affected by what he called "the mismanagement of the U.S. economy," and that America's problems were a key factor in the cartel's decision to hold off on any action.

"If the prices are high, definitely they are not due to a lack of crude. They are due to what's happening in the U.S.," Khelil said. "There is sufficient supply. There's plenty of oil there."
Though Khelil uses "US economy" instead of "speculators".

(3) From demand side:

Quote, "Shell CEO says record oil not due to shortage
Thu May 22, 2008 5:24pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL2232289720080522

(4) What US Senate Committee found:

Quote, "The real reason why oil prices are rising

June 02, 2008
...........
The finding of US Senate Committee in 2006
In June 2006, when the oil price in the futures markets was about $60 a barrel, a Senate Committee in the US probed the role of market speculation in oil and gas prices. The report points out that large purchase of crude oil futures contracts by speculators has, in effect, created additional demand for oil and in the process driven up the future prices of oil.......
The report further estimated that speculative purchases of oil futures had added as much as $20-25 per barrel to the then prevailing price of $60 per barrel. In today's prices of approximately $130 per barrel, this means that approximately $100 per barrel could be attributed to speculation!...

*What is interesting to note is that the US strategic oil reserves were at approximately 350 million barrels for a decade till 2006. However, for the past year and a half these reserves have doubled to more than 700 million barrels. Naturally, this build-up of strategic oil reserves by the US (of 350 million barrels) is adding enormous pressure on the oil demand and consequently its prices.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/jun/02mrv.htm

4. Oil price goes up when Iran abandon Dollar as its oil trade currency. Time table:

(1) (Intention period)

In the end of 2006 and early 2007, the oil price was about $60/barrel. When Iran expressed its intention to use the euro for foreign transactions.

It was about $70/barrel in early July/07. In six months, it rose 10 dollars per barrel.

06-12-18. Iran scraps Dollar, takes on Euro
Mon. 18 Dec 2006
Iran Focus

Tehran, Iran, Dec. 18 - Iran's central bank will begin to use the euro for foreign transactions, replacing the long-established dollar system, government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told reporters during his weekly press conference on Monday.

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=9533

(2) Practising period.

From early July 2007 to the end of January 2008, in seven months, oil price rose from $60/barrel to $95/barrel. In this period, Iran completed its oil trading from dollar to foreign currency.
Quote, " Iran wants yen

July 13/2007 (Bloomberg) -- Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran's central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar."

(3) Expand to future deal.

Early February 2008 to 7/4/2008, oil price was pushed up from $95 to $147 a barrel. That's a $50 dollars inflation in five months. Why I start this period from Februry 2008? Because Iran's Bourse inaugurated on Feb.17. When the oil customers of Iran have to buy the future contract by reserving more foreign currency in the bank, US has to push up the price, let other OPEC customers absorb the Petro-dollars dumped by Iran customers.

Quote, "Iran Oil Bourse to deal blow to dollar
Fri, 04 Jan 2008

The long-awaited Iranian Oil Bourse, a place for trading oil, petrochemicals and gas in various non-dollar currencies, will soon open.

Iran's Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari told reporters the bourse will be inaugurated during the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (February 1-11) at the latest.

Some expert opinions hold inauguration of the bourse cold significantly devalue the greenback.
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=37468&sectionid=351020103

08-03-01. Iran shifts oil sales away from dollar
Sat, 01 Mar 2008

Deputy head of the National Iranian Oil Company for international affairs says Iran has completely dropped dollar in its oil sales.
In an interview with The Financial Times, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard said that over the past three months, Iran has received 75 percent of the proceeds from its oil sales in euros and the remaining 25 percent in the Japanese currency, yen.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=45397&sectionid=351020102

High oil price (5) (7/29/08)

In Oil (4) I talked about Iran intended to turn the oil trading from dollar into euro in December 2006. Did Iran deliberately do that? Read the following information:
468. Follow up to #467, #461 and #462 (2/20/07)

On 1/15 and 1/20, I wrote #461 and #462, alleged that US had set up a Euro trap for Iran: If the December plot started, Euro would collapse due to the collapse of WANTA fund and the shortage of oil supply to the Europe. Iran not only would be bombed, but also suffered a huge loss in finance. On 2/1, an article proved the correctness of my analysis.

Re: "The War on Iran
Thursday, 01 February 2007
By Stephen Gowans

In Paulsons view, Iran is still a major player globally, and needs to suffer the same pariah treatment. (New York Times, September 17, 2006) In October, US Treasury Department officials banned US banks from facilitating transactions involving Irans state-owned Bank Saderat. In January, the ban was widened to include another Iranian bank, Bank Sepah.

When Iran sells oil to a customer in Germany, the German customer asks a European bank to deposit US dollars into an Iranian bank account. The European bank then arranges for the transfer of US dollars from a US bank to an Iranian bank account in Europe. Paulsons ban prohibits US banks from transferring funds if Bank Saderat and Bank Sepah are involved. (New York Times, October 16, 2006) With oil sales denominated in US dollars, the aim is to impede Irans ability to sell oil. The way around the US manoeuvre is to sell oil in Euros, something Iran has already begun to do. (New York Times, January 10, 2007)

This would seem to be a simple enough way of beating the US at its own game. It also raises questions about the prudence of compelling Iran to switch to Euros, since a change to Euros, if adopted by a number of oil-exporting countries, would push down the value of the US greenback. US investment banker John Hermann, a comptroller of currency in the Carter administration, wonders whether the US is shooting itself in the foot. (New York Times, October 16, 2006)

http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/261/52/

In October, US blocked the financial transaction between US banks and major Iran bank which forced Iran to turn on to Euro instead of Dollar in oil trading. Two months later, if the December plot succeeded, Iran would suffer a big loss in finance. The US investment banker John Hermann wonders whether the US is shooting itself in the foot then. He wouldn't have that puzzle if he reads my messages."

It's no others but US himself who forced Iran to turn on Euro. In December 2006 they set up a Euro trap. But the plot went soured. Since the process is irreversible, and the Feds is unwilling to raise the interest, to save the dollar, they have to push up the oil price. We the people have to eat the bad fruit planted by the Feds.

Someone or a group inside the government created a situation to make war on Iran.