About time i returned to some form with bets posted on here and i think it could be starting this weekend. Got a whole string of bets for this weekend and there will definetly be some winners from the ones ill post up here. Hopefully some of you may pick out the right ones and get a few quid. Starting with today....
Friday 16th October:
235pm Newmarket CHAMPAGNE STYLE 12/1 EW
255pm Cheltenham SNAP TIE 4/6 WIN
310pm Newmarket RIO DE LA PLATA 5/2 WIN
345pm Newmarket GRIMSHOLPE CASTLE 5/1 EW
355pm Redcar MEDICINAL COMPOUND 3/1 EW
455pm Newmarket AGENTE PARMIGIANO 12/1 EW
550pm Cheltenham THE JIGSAW MAN 11/8 WIN
Some of the above will win and place today for certain and those are what im doing.
If you want my opinion on the best of the above bets ill rank them in order i think and id say:
1.GRIMSHOLPE CASTLE.Certain to place and most likely winner imo.
1.MEDICINAL COMPOUND. Shouldnt be out of the three.
2.THE JIGSAW MAN. Class apart from the rest.
4.AGENTE PARMIGIANO.Nice price for one id expect to go close.
5.CHAMPAGNE STYLE.More of a hunch but 3x price i was expecting.
6.RIO DE LA PLATA.Not bullish on this as competiton is there and trip doubt.
7.SNAP TIE.Not really a very nice price for anyone.
Ones coming for tommoro include some at good prices that i am VERY bullish about...looking forward to tommoros more so than todays but still expecting a good return from the above....
Lets see.....
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Cool. I should have some more winners again for tommoro. Got one for the Racing Post Trophy next weekend. A few at the Breeders Cup meet in a few weeks. A couple for the Paddy Power Gold Cup next month. One for australia at the months end and a few for Hong Kong in the beginning of december. Theres bound to be some nice priced winners and great each way bets amongst that lot.Especially with the foreign races.
Ill post up these for tommoro now as they are actually racing in melbourne at 6am uk time in the morning so would need backing tonight...
The Caulfield Cup at 605am should be contested between Kirklees, Cima De Triumph and Daffodil who are all priced at 7/1. Theyre all pretty good EW bets and im finding it difficult to split them...probably leaning towards Kirklees...ill probably ditch Dafodil of the 3 and back the other 2 each way but not certain yet....ill try make my mind up and post but taking a lucky dip on one or two of them each way is not the worst thing in the world
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Some of the above will win and place today for certain and those are what im doing.
If you want my opinion on the best of the above bets ill rank them in order i think and id say:
1.GRIMSHOLPE CASTLE.Certain ..... LOST
1.MEDICINAL COMPOUND. Should..... WON
2.THE JIGSAW MAN. Class apar..... WON
4.AGENTE PARMIGIANO.Nice pri..... LOST
5.CHAMPAGNE STYLE.More of a ..... WON
6.RIO DE LA PLATA.Not bullis..... LOST
7.SNAP TIE.Not really a very..... WON
Not bad with 2/3 top choices winning. Champagne Style at 12/1 was a nice one.
Not of the losers placed so got Grimsholpe Castle wrong but hey ho.
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Well done thementalist some nice priced winners you found today. I was in profit for the day also managed to get a nice win on Templer at 17/2 in 3:30 at Cheltenham. I don't mind the flat racing but there's something extra special about the jump season especially in the higher class races around the likes Cheltenham and Aintree.
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not horse related but in the footy theres good odds on:
Colchester to beat Wycombe - virtually a dead cert
Shrewsbury to beat Darlington - very suprised if they didnt
if you put them two into a multiples bet a few other big teams such as Real madrid, barcer, arsenal, lyon and possibly united you should get some good odds
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Pete Doherty has got terminal cancer. We will feed his brain to hungry dogs.
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"Also I no this is going to sound terribly thick but how do you place each way bets on betfair?"
when you click on the horse you want and the back option, it comes up on the right hand side with how much you want to stake and to the right of that theres a box you can tick which says E/W
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Pete Doherty has got terminal cancer. We will feed his brain to hungry dogs.
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Not a bad day again so far 3/7 winners with a couple of 3rds as well to give each way profits. Only two losing races from the seven so far. Cant lose on the day now and whatever the result of these last two tonight will be nicely in profit. Looking forward to tonights results though as one is one of days best bets imo and other is one with a great shout. Gonna go in again with both and do an each way double which will be a monsterous payout if it obliges: BUCAALLETTI 7/1 LAHALEEB 20/1 EW DOUBLE.
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If anyones backing these tonight with hills or ladbrookes bet them in the us markets into there pools....like doing a tote bet here....youll find them on the site...wont know what price until after the race but i guarantee alot better than prices i publish above for uk book prices...this is what ill do..will be nice ew bets
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Just got in from my night out. Was out way before these ran and only just seen the results....55/1 Us Tote and 200/1 the exacta...i had enough lumped on those as well to make it a small fortune! What a couole of days....got some more as mentioned for the next few weeks so hope i can add to the boards bank balance if you follow me in.
4/9 winners...some at mammoth prices. plus then 3/9 places leaving only 2 losing races...small race losses though with mammoth race wins....a massive winning day and coupled with yesterday a massive winning weekend...hoping and confident it will conttinue on till the new year. Got some more really good ones lined up. Especially the foreign ones
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Henry/Ravens Pass at the Breeders paid 80/1 last year More of that this year i reckon...get it ready Sorry i didnt post Lahalleb/RV exatca...i had it...i doubt anyone would have followed anyways. But as said get ready for the breeeders cup in a months.....some good bets there which ill post at tasty prices on us tote pool...sure vgs/savaloy et al will back up and post some as well
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Got one bet and one bet only for this coming weekend. Will be the biggest bet ive had all year as i can afford to lose some recent winnings if it comes to it as the price and my bullishness makes it worthwhile to have a right pop at it. Should be 16/1 plus and upwards. Maybe even 40/1 so would expect it to be somewhere in between...25/1 ish say. Ill be going Each Way and when ive got on ill put it up here in the next few days at least 24 hours before the race so people who want to have a bash can do.
I cant promise it will win and place but im hopefull and this is one i would definetly encourage someone to follow me in on win or lose. Just make sure if you do you can afford to lose it.
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STOLEN FROM 606 BOARDS TODAY. 8/1 currently, may be wirth a look.
2.40 Carlisle Thursday 22nd October
National Hunt
Quite a decent 2 mile novice chase taking place tommorow at Carlisle.The horse i'll be highlighting was given as the trainers own pick,in his stable tour for the season ahead.
OCKEY DE NEULLIAC(F Murphy)
His quote regarding the horse:"We're excited about him.He has grown up so much and you wouldn't believe how well he has done over the summer.He beat a hot-pot of Howard Johnson's first time out last season but then got stressed up in the stableyard at Haydock.Because of that,i took off his noseband,but Graham(Lee)wasn't able to hold him without it.We backed off him after that until giving him one more run at Newcastle,where he was second to a flat horse.I reckon 2M will be his trip and i think he is definitely an Arkle horse."
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Im just sitting here drip feeding my money on still: On betfair and with the bookies making sure i get the best prices (& taking odds guaranteed with the bookies as well incase he drifts and drifts as he is doing).
The absolute latest ill put him up here is very early tommoro morning...If you go to bed tonight and i still havnt put up just make sure your up to read it no later than 8am ish....youll have more than enough time to then get on him online or even pop into a shop tommoro morning when they open...
Youre gonna get at least 25/1 worst case scenario by the looks of things and considering he is drifting and 33/1 most places i reckon youll easy get some 33/1 or 40/1 in the morning before 10am.
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I got a scratch card from betfair where i won £10 bet which you get when you lose, so i put a tenner on and it lost, and i havent got any money back, i can't afford this!!!!!!
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I obviously know why you think that savaloy. I mentioned that one back in the summer as a Derby prospect. Yeah keep an eye out for him. He has an EW sqeak tommoro.
As i said ill reveal all when im on. If im still trying to get on very early in the morning ill reveal all anyways.
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I'm £260 up for the month betting on the horses. Although that pales into comparision with what I've lost in the past. Found a good straetgy on picking horses, to do with how quickly they are turned out since thier last run.
Tommorrow see's a lot of top class racing, looking forward to it.
I shall be on in the morning for your tip thementalist.
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Youd be surprised savaloy how in an illiquid market a few five and tenners can crash a price when the odds are big...dont take much to move it from 50/1 down to 33s say on betfair and then the bookies just blindly cut prices. Ive got some other mates i was telling as well plus putting on another forum so i just wanted to be sure i got what i wanted.
Anyways just incase you didnt see through my reply you were right all along. It Is Al Ghazal in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster 330pm.Well remembered:
330pm Doncaster (Racing Post Trophy)
AL GHAZAL 40/1 EACH WAY (Best price with ladbrookes.Only price doing 40/1)
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Now off into town for couple hours...wont be long...
But others im doing for the day for sure are these (may add more later):
3.205pm Newbury Classic Colori 5/1 EW
4.235pm Newbury All The Aces 5/1 EW
1.400pm Aintree The Hollow Bottom 7/2 EW
2.455pm Newbury Rainbow Peak 2/1 EW
Gonna stick some of them in combo bets with Al Ghazal. Al Ghazal was my one bet and one bet only but ive picked out these for small fun stakes just to give me abit of a build up and come down as he is a big one There should be some winners amongst them. Numbers give rank for imo best bet order.
Al Ghazal is the one to get on EW though for anyone that wants to follow on one.
Remember what you can lose and no guarantees. Im starting to feel like im gonna get linched here should this one go plonk. Im bullish though. More or less no negatives. Even the smallest of details are all going in his favour. Ill be VERY surprised if he isnt at least in the first three and that alone would be a 10/1 winner on the each way part of the bet
Fingers Crossed everyone
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I've stuck a few quid on as well. here's hoping it comes through. i could really do with a winner at the moment, luck's been bad for ages and pay day's not for a week yet!
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pheww thats still a fair bit though student...al ghazal is one to back again next time out...ive just seen this back and he was eased very heavily when his win chance had gone....St Nicholas abbey would have been untouchable today but its a shame for us he got a bump and held back as hed have probaly placed had he been ridden out
i was bullish tday and wrong but i dont think i was far out just abit of bad luck in running..that happens....plenty more to be bullish about over next few weeks and some of them ill be right on....id like to think ll be right more than wrong over the next few weeks with these type of ones....
fingers crossed
not seen vgs about for ahiwle with any tips...be good to have some of his up here
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Its ok to be bullish, my thinking is to trust your own judgement and nobody elses though. Which somewhat renders this thread a bit pointless! And also why i don't put many bets up.
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thats true savaloy but i have certain people ill follow regardless...id like to hear yours more often as i value your opinion...you are right though cause ultimetly ill always go with what i think if im up against someone....sometimes someone will put me off though and that will save me a few quid....sometimes the difference of opionion between two people is enough to put me in the right direction etc...the debate is always helpfull
im behind todays bet 100% though as with these ones where im unusually aggresive im right far more often than im wrong and at a mix of prices as well..follow me on these ones sensibly managing your stakes proeprly and someone should be in good profit in the long run..
^^^^ I was lucky with rainbow peak as well mate....he was only winner of the day but with my second bigest stake so ive just recouped all my losses bar about £40...I couldve easily have done £500 today if it wasnt for that and getting some lays matched on al ghazal in running
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Got a little exicted when it was in front and looking to be travelling well. What the hell was the jockey doing seemed to give up after the winning chance had gone?
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Your right. You can see him lose his action twice before the jockey completely gives up on him and eases him back. Id imagine we will find that he has come out of the race picking up an injury at this point where we see him falter.
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Wasnt going to have a bet for a couple of weeks but i received some tips last night for the first time in ages from sources ill follow. One has a pretty good strike rate with more than half his tips winning that he gives me. I've been told to take a price on Long Strand in the Galway 4.35 - been off for a fair while but is apparently very fit and ready to go. Currently 7/4. The other prob gives me 1 out of 3 winners id say. Been told Hawanna will win the 510pm at Kempton. Currently 7/1.
On top of that i had a look through the days cards myself since i was looking at these and i actually found what i thought were a couple of good bets. Racy in the 120pm at Lingfeild looks a good thing to my mind. Whilst the Oxx horse Keredari in the 125pm Leopardstown looks sure to go close and at 4/1 is an ew price which i wouldnt have expected.
Also liked the look of Sovereign remedy in the 330pm at leicester and Mutafayer in the 240pm at Kempton with silk street 4/1 the danger but very wary of thse ones obliging.Not the best prices either.
There should be some winners there. Be surprised if at least one of the tips didnt win and at least one of Racy and Keredari.There the main 4 im going to back today. Order best bets imo numbered.
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There is word for Bullet Train in the 3.10 Yarmouth. Apparently being geared towards the Derby. First run today so maybe one to keep an eye on. Stoute has a good record at Yarmouth too. Not sure of current price as I don't have access but it was 5-1 on Betfair last night. Had a little bit on it.
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Poor fare today, just one bet for me 2.10 yarmouth amno dancer each way, form is pretty smart back up in trip, i took 16s earlier as i thought it was vastly overpriced. I wouldn't be taking less than 12s though.
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Got worked up in the prelims, sweated badly and bolted to post. Still ran well though and traded at 6/4 in running. This is a winner in waiting and certainly one to keep an eye on. Amno dancer.
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That last lot reminded me i dont play low quality midweek fare except when i get suckered in like the other day. 1 winner from that lot was dissapointing.
Good heads up on bullet train. ive had a look at him now after whats been said here and he has the look of one henry will be plotting towards the derby next year with a backen yarmouth debut win.
Im supposed to be keeping my hands in my pockets in preparation for the Breeders meet and the Paddy Power weekend at Cheltenham but i cant help but look at the cards and then start seeing what i think are good bets. I wouldnt advise anyone to take too much notice this weekend though or follow as im not even sure ill back myself yet. Just some quick glance thoughts.
At Newmarket on the flat im being drawn to Infiraad 6/1 in the 205pm. On the upgrade and could be about to zoom past this opposition. Also like Prince Of Dance 4/1 in the 235pm for similar reasons and again in the 345pm for the same kind of thinking i quite like the look of Laaheb 5/1.
Some good quality jumps racing about today. Ascot is where you look for the Henderson runners and he only appears to have two on display. Both with ApMcoy on board as the stable jockey has gone to weatherby to ride my petra. Any sort of tip there ? Personally id play it safe and just look at the Mcoy rides at ascot for Henderson as they are a powerfull combo when teaming up at a track henderson excells at. French Opera evens should prevail imo in the 120pm but i wouldnt be sure about Your The Top evens in the 225pm as William Hogerth 2/1 looks very smart and came a nk 2nd to the highly thought of The jigsaw man lto. He would be the one to my mind for this. You would think both of those would do for the exacta.
There is 3 im drawn to in the 150pm the big handicap chase. Seven is my number 5/1 who looks to have plenty of scope but whom may not get home at this 3 mile trip. Two that also appeal are shining gale 8/1 and gone to lunch 12/1.
Not sure if im having much in the way of bets yet but the above are what ive homed in on if i do have a play.
Godolphin are on fire but im backing on the streak coming to an end today with my selections if i do play.
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Just been told to get on Suton Veny in the 720pm at Wolverhampton...14/1 EW! Wins easy apparently...comes from one of the part owners! Knowing how this game works ive just played small...
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Good info. Very solid run just being done on the run in for the win. 7/2 the place will do.
Above returned quite a few winners today as well which was nice for messing around. Makes amends for the midweek pap.
Big Week again next weekend with the Breeders Cup Meet. Will have some big bets and confident selections again for this one. Ones to follow me in on id say and hopefully win back those Al Ghazal losses and more for some nice fat profits.
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Evening! Bad luck with that Gask horse, had a quiet week here, just ticking over to hit the weekly target. Rightly looking forward to the Breeders Cup (deserves its own thread i reckon ) and the Paddy Power meeting, if you've never been to Cheltenham I really recommend it highly.
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Yes they are the two im really looking forward too. Sure as hell deserves its own thread does the breeders...there are loads of races. If i have a good weekend at the breeders ill think about heading to Chelts the following sat to cheer home whatever i pick for the PPGoldCup...
Im sure hoping to hear your thoughts for all this lot...
You got any early plans more or less formed for the breeders ? Any antepost pick for the Paddy Power ? Shining Gale is most likely the one for me at this stage for that...
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It'll all depend on the ground on the day for me at cheltenham. Had no AP bets but im definately interested in Tatenen off 149, could be very well treated off that mark, wherever he runs. I'll be down there for the weekend and it was profitable last year with everyone with me on Imperial Commander!
As for the Breeders Cup, hoping Zenayatta goes for the classic to get me a bit more of a price about Rip Van Winkle.
I've had a tenner each way on Gladitorus at 33/1 for the mile, think he has a decent chance, even still at the 14s currently on offer. Especially now he's got his head infront this year, all be it in a weak group 1 in Italy.
I haven't really delved in to the American form yet so thats another thing to be getting a grip on before friday comes! Boring work, but it pays the bills!
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The Melbourne Cup in the early hours...The race that stops a nation...
Not really my thing this but backed 3 each way tentively. Found some strong stats and trends and looks like Roman Emperor 8/1 EW is a gimme for a top 4 finish so backing that one and doing Fiumicino 66/1 EW and Basaltico 30/1 EW. Dont really fancy the latter but Cumani has done well here last 2 years and hes a big price.
0400am Flemington Australia
Roman Emperor 8/1 EW
Fiumicino 66/1 EW
Basaltico 30/1 EW
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Bit of a lottery as always. I agree on Roman Emperor being the each way banker. Also have a bit each way on Crime Scene at 40s just purely down to Godolphin form, nothing else. Also have a small amount each way on Capecover at 66-1.
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put a little each way bet on 3 of the hroses mentioned here, prices a bit lwoer on apddy power so ui assume that means theyre getting mroe likely to win
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I got up to watch as well and dont know why. Funny old race the Melbourne Cup. Its abit like handicapping everyone in an Olympic D final so its just abit odd. History and tradition though i guess. Ive never done well on it so no change again there this year. Unlucky with Crime Scene boys. Theres a Breeders Cup thread Lee so youll find something there for the weekend at some point. Should be some excellent tips on there.
Get On Shining Gale for the Paddy Power in 2 weeks...Top 4 finisher imo and will shorten in price from the current 14s so easily tradeable. One of the most likely winners.
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Well the Breeders Cup for none of us really turned out like we hoped! Time for the PPGC now this weekend. One of my fav jumps races of the year including for betting. Initially when i looked i was interested in Shining Gale and Chapoteurgen. Shining Gale not running so time to re assess:
Sorry if this is abit untidy but to just get them up quickly ill just tap out from my scribbly notes so there may be some overlaps and manual picking through bits:
Three key points:
- Must have won a cheltenham chase over the last 13 months. (in real terms goes back 20 months approx as going back to last month or so of previous season)
- Must have won a chase at 2m4f or 2m5f over last 13 months (same time span as above. See above note)
- English southern trainers excellent record (irish very poor)
- CD winner or further or at least good overall track form
- weight irrelevent. Or is it ? as 8/10 carried at least 10st13
- 7/8 yo best record but 5/6/9 not to be ignored with the advent of french breds. Recent record heading towards the younger again as 6/10 were 6yo or 7yo. The last 5 winners were all 6/7you so we should prob be homing in on the 5/6/7 nowdays.
Up to 2005:
- 9/10 OR 136-150
- 7/10 seasonal debut. Of these ignoring the pipes who had a special record the others finished top 2 on there last run the previous season.The three that had already run had also finsihed top 2. 2 of them won.
- In last 5 runs only 2/16 ran below class 3 level and all had won at least at class 2 level in one of last 5 runs. only 2/16 didnt contest a class 1 of some kind.
- 14/16 won by 2nd/3rd season chasers.4th season took other 2.No novices won.
- no horses win without having scored at least over 2m4f.all had won at least over trip with many at 3m/3m1f
- 13/16 RPR 148+. 150+ a big plus unless lightly raced. Exceptions were all lightly raced so look out for a lightly raced low rated runner as the lurker if there is one. Otherwise follow above.
- Previous years october and paddy power meet are often good pointers so take a look at those that ran as novices or 2nd/3rd season chasers that previous year at either of these meets.
- Form is essential for this race. Even if winning good races in the past current form is essential. All won at least once in last 5. Barring falls,unseated, pu etc they have finished 4th or better in last 3 runs.
-historically pipes have a great record winning 7/10 at one point. Respect there runners. May not be as relevent now however.
- Nichols has a poor record. A couple of runners most years but considering his usual success his record in this race is poor. Still even so he has to be given respect.
- Pyments handicap cahase at the october meeting a key race. Many winners do the double from this one.
A few more tit bits about somewhere that i cant find at the moment. Im gonna stick with Chapoteurgen: He is one of the best trends fits. And He finished over Course and Distance at the festival in a faster time than Imperial Commander won the Ryanair. He was carrying less weight but thats impressive. He could be thrown in here even off his current rating and Our Vic in the same ownership looks to be keeping his weight down to a very winnable level. Doesnt look too much to lump around at all. I want to find something else to add with backing him for insurance. Plus Paddy Power themselves are refunding all win singles if a nichols horse wins which is a good offer. I may have 3/4 overall with that generous PP offer.
Time to find some others.
What does everyone else like ? What you fancy going for ?
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According To Pete is not without an ew chance. Couldnt see him winning but a place is not without a shout.
Im now gonna back Tatenan on Betfair. I dont really fancy him to win but hes currently 11/1 ish and he will run and start 5/1 fav imo.Ill lay it off later.
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I usually find the met office rainfall radar to be pretty accurate with its predictions. Ground currently Good to soft (good in places) at Chelts. Its not going to be any better than Good-Soft for saturday at best looking at that forecast. If its accurate id say its soft ground for sure.Maybe even worse. Id say it will be soft ground myself. Difficult to tell but either way Tatenham will shorten to some degree. Just a case of how much hell shorten too depending on rain that falls and ground on the day.
What you reckon ?
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With rain forecast at Cheltenham this weekend Paul Nicholls might just be having second thoughts over his number one target for the Paddy Power Gold Cup as he bids to win the race for the first time.
Poquelin, Chapoturgeon and Tatenen are set to represent Nicholls, with the first-named widely thought to be the stable first string following an easy win at Prestbury Park on his seasonal reappearance, but soft ground could make it a level playing field according to the Ditcheat handler.
He told sportinglife.com: "The intention is to run them all. It is ground dependent as Poquelin would like decent ground and wouldn't want too much more rain while Tatenen would like it soft.
"We'll keep an eye on the weather forecast during the week. Chapoturgeon is a definite runner.
"On decent ground Poquelin is probably stable number one, but if it came up soft I'm not so sure. Tatenen does like Cheltenham and he loves soft ground, it could make it interesting and there wouldn't be a lot between the three of them."
Tatenen has yet to run beyond two miles, but Nicholls admits it was always the plan to step him up in trip in his second season over fences.
He continued: "Tatenen is crying out for three miles to be honest with you and I'll probably go three miles afterwards. He's definitely wanting a trip so that will be no problem to him at all. "
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Poqulin doesnt even really want Good-Soft. There is not a cat in hells chance it will be any better than that. Id be very surprised if Tatenan didnt run and ruby didnt jump ship. If you think Poquelin will run he is a huge price.
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Im a tatenen man as you know, ive had small dabbles here and there for a few weeks. Will be a good party if he obliges! You reckon you'll get down there on saturday?
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Probably not. If id have come out in good profit last weekend id have spent some of it on the day out there. Sadly that wasnt the case
Had a tip for tongith with a jim best horse...
Abhar expected to win first time out.
720pm Kempton
Abhar 14/1 (20s plus on betfair)
Cant say i have any confidence with this but its one ill blindly follow in on and price is a nice ew price. Speculating on these is nice when they do come in.
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Anybody putting any bets for the Cheltenham card later today?
Looking at these ones myself, will probably decide in the morning:
1:50 - Loosen My Load
2:25 - Safari Journey
Also an intersting race at 3:00 with two likely Grand National horses lining up in a cross country race. Previous national winner Silver Birch and more interestingly in my view, Garde Champetre who I was dissapointed to see not running in the national last year definitely one to keep an eye in my opinion.
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£0.75 E/W Yankee
1:15 - Mister Apples 10.00
1:50 - Loosen My Lord 4.50
2:25 - Safari Journey 12.00
3:00 - Garde Champetre 1.80
and a small bet on the toteplacepot
1:15 - Mister Apples, My Lord Oscar
1:50 - Loosen My Lord
2:25 - Tramantano, Safari Journey
3:00 - Garde Champetre
3:35 - Crazy Eyes, Lord Ragnar, Regal Approach
4:05 - Ashkazar
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Made my Paddy Power picks. Going for Chapoturgeon and From Dawn To Dusk as main plays with a much smaller dabble on Im So Lucky. Im wary of Poquelin if the ground comes up ok (unlikely) and Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets if a nichols horse wins so thats the place to do them. Invloving all four of those in some small combos.
Cheltenham
225pm Chapoturgeon 8/1 EW
From Dawn To Dusk 33/1 EW
(Im So Lucky 33/1 EW (Small))
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Vinnies Friend doesnt look to have much to beat and is on the upgrade. Probably alot better than the rest already with plenty more to come. 3/1 looks big for a horse that should win this.Difficult to see not placing.
Cheltenham 345pm Vinnies Friend 3/1 EW
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Yeah good promotion at Paddy Power refunding all losing stakes in GC if a Nicholls horse wins the race.
I've decided on Chapoturgeon, Poquelin and My Petra all E/W for the main race. The ground is a worry for Poquelin but I'm fan of the horse so i'm going to stick with it.
And my £0.50 Yankee E/W bet for today:
1:55 - Chelsea Harbour 7.00
2:35 - Chapoturgeon 8.00
3:10 - Le Beau Bai 12.00
3:45 - High Bird Humphrey 8.50
Best of luck everyone.
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I wont replace my NR with anything> Chapoturgeon as a main play and Im So Lucky smaller each way to save. Main dangers i see are Ballyfitz and Poquelin but im not keen on either especially the latter in the ground. Ill be annoyed if he wins though as he would be the one possibly on decent ground.
Going BIG EW on Chapoturgeon. Im do a winner now so hoping the lumpy steaks will be rewarded. Not telling anyone to follow but this is a pretty strong bet i reckon. Barring a fall i cant see him at the least not placing.
NO change on last nights bets really. Just hoping those two races will provide profit. There were a few other horses i liked inlcuding powerstation but ill see how the paddy power goes first. May play some more depends on taht race. Bit of an all or nothing for me on Chapoturgeon for the day.
A few of us are on by looks so Come on Chap.
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Yeah dont worry about that. Different owners. Timmy Murphy is on the owners 1st choice. Ruby never rides Chap. ALl that is positve too. probs why price is big. usual money just follows rubys mount so there is confusion amongst nichols ruinners.
Come on chap
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FFS Chapoturgeon thrashed that winner there as well over course and distance back at the festival in march. I know there was a big weight swing this time but even so i thought chap would finish in front of tranquil sea.
Still cant win if you FALL...FFS.
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i got tranquil sea when it was 10/1 on apddypower, but unfortunately not a single, i did a £1 EW double with crack away jack 8/1 in the arkle trophy in march, regretting it a bit now
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Had a great 3 days apart from the weather, ended up about 50quid up for the weekend after i'd paid everything out. So not too bad. We met Ruby Walsh in O'Neills on Saturday night, which was nice, he told us Tataniano was a steering job and Master Minded wasn't fully revved up, but he still expected to win. Haydock this saturday the next jaunt planned. Hope Kauto Star fairs a bit better than Master Minded!
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Kauto goes best fresh, so I have no concerns about that. He won at Down Royal nicely last year and Sam Thomas gave him a terrible ride at Haydock. I wouldnt want it to come up like a bog though. Anything around evens and ill be piling in big time.
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Think ill be sticking with Imperial Commander. This is the only time he is having a go at 3M+ without any issues or problems. This time it is the acid test.
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^^^ yeah thats the common consesus. I dont agree with it. Not yet anyway. Thats why i think saturday is the acid test. This is the very first time he is ever having a go at the trip without any underlying problems or issues.
Could be pissing in the wind on this one ill admit that. What makes you convinced he doesnt get the trip savaloy ?
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Nigel thinks he will stay, so does Paddy Brennan and the owners. But the bare form doesnt lie, even if he stays on saturday, he still has to have improved significantly to get within 15 lengths of KS. I really do hope he does see the trip out ok, but I think it's a risky strategy to adopt at such skinny odds. There are not many decent 2.5 mile chases around in the programme to aim him at, so I think connections have been restricted to what they can run in to a certain extent. Hopefully the race will cut up a lot and he'll be able to pick up some nice place money.
11/10 Kauto with Paddy Power, thats good enough for me.
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Hmmm I dont think Impreials previous form over 3M tells you anything myself yet. He had really strong excuses every single time. The only one im less inclineed to let him off for was the lto out run at aintree. But then very few horses run well there if theyve ran well at the festival. Over his trip he would be a match for Kauto Star. Gets this trip ok and he is a threat. A big threat imo. Been aimed and primed at the race. Im Sure Kauto is not going to be top notch in this. He should still be good enough to win but even so i think he will be below his standard. IC is primed for a carrear best effort though imo.
Hopefully at least one of us will be right and collect. Id be happy with a place to be honest of course behind Kauto I do think IC has a win chance as well though.
Ive actually had whiff the last 24 hours as well that the owners are expecting a big run. Ive followed this horse for a couple of years now and when the owners (not nigel) have been bullish he hasnt dissapointed so it encourages me even more.
Looking forward to eagle mountain in the hong kong trials this sun morning. Think he can win this and poss be a nice price on the tote.
What you think for Zayner on saturday ? Banker material ? I like to try pick out the hendo runners at ascot and newbury as a banker and this seems like the one for sat ? whadya reckon ?
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I dont know what horse you are thinking of, but Imperial Commander didn't run at aintree, he ran very poorly on soft ground over 3miles1f at punchestown. Pretty much the same way he ran in the King George, where he had no excuses at all?
As for Zaynar, Henderson thinks he could shape up into a champion hurdle contender, so he ought to be up to winning this first time out. 5/2 seems a fair enough price to me, not something i'll be getting involved in though.
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yeah sorry i meant punchestowns. Yes thats what i meant. his 3m run after the festival. Thats the only 3m run im suspicious of. The only reason ill let him off for that is that few horses who run well at the festival do so again for the rest of the season after being peaked for chelts.
Ahhh well if you ever forgive him for any of his 3m runs then the king george should be top of the list. The NTD yard was full of some sort of bug at the time. All his horses were running awfully and all in the same kind of way. GOing out like lights and not seeing there trips out. He actually pulled all his runners for a couple of weeks or so in the january and had the stable effectively shut down.
I think this race could cut up quuite badly so IC may not even have to stay that well to get a place which makes his current 10/1 attractive to me. Truely soft ground is a potential problem. Im not bullish but happy to have a punt on him. Like i say happy to come 2nd to Kauto but he is 10 now almost and hell start running poor at short odds sooner rather than later so im wary about backing him this season.
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Just looking through the cards for tommoro and There are a lot of good races about with lots of good horses running. There must be some good bets somewhere amongst tommoros races.
Not too keen on Impreial Commander now to be perfectly honest as heavy ground would be a big no no for him imo and it could well be that.Would like to see him pulled if thats the case as a poor showing on heavy wont reveal anything and it could mess up the whole campaign for him. Wont really know till after the frist race tommoro. Quite like Halcon Glenardis if it is heavy.
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Leg 1, Ascot - 2.05pm
Leg 2, Haydock - 2.20pm
Leg 3, Lingfield - 3.05pm
Leg 4, Ascot - 3.10pm
Leg 5, Haydock - 3.25pm
Leg 6, Lingfield - 3.40pm
Think the Scoop6 is worth having a go at this weekend.....
Be interested to hear what people think would be worth doing on the six races above ? ANyone able to narrow certain races above down where they are sure they have the winner from a few horses etc ? Would help me with my picks
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My racing bets have hit a bad streak since October, up until that point I thought I was doing really well for this year.
Not looked at tommorrow's cards yet will probably take a look in the morning. Be intersting to see how Kauto Star performs in the Betfair Chase can see him getting beat because there's some intersting entries in that race. Although I may be a bit biased since I'm a big fan of Denman and already backed him for the Gold Cup.
I believe Savaloy is going to Haydock and Aintree this weekend, hope you have a good time and back a few winners!
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I was laying Imperial Commander manically at heavy odds on during that photo to get a green screen and yet i thought he had won it so i breathed a huge sigh of relief.
That performance from him wasnt a surprise to me but ill be interested to see how the race and Kautos performance is rated because from first impressiions IC actually ran better than even i thought he would. I couldnt say i was bullish but just quietly assured beforehand. Kauto ran far better than i expected as well to be fair. Much better than his first runs last year. You can be sure Imperial Commander will go for the Gold Cup now and he is a live contender. The staying question should be well and truely put to bed given the soft/heavy ground today. Today really was the first time he was ever having a real fair crack at the trip. Good/Gd-sft at Chelts will be right up his street come march. He would still have it all to prove though in the Gold Cup. Kauto will be a tough nut to crack in the King George but ill prob have an each way against him again. Youd be mad to lay him though.
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A few weeks ago i picked up a tip from one of the part owners of a horse called sutton veny who is trained by Jim Best. You may remember it as i posted it on here and she came 2nd at 14/1.
Ive picked up same again for her tonight in the 915pm at Wolves at 8/1. Same track and class as last time but with a much better draw than last time out. They expect at the very least a place again.
Just sharing what ive been told and ill follow in once again.
Wolverhampton
915pm Sutton Veny 8/1 EW
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I think they should be called deadheats when it's that close. To me the picture even with the still photo and the line on there, they still appear to have crossed together.
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Now about to back Eagle Mountain at a rather silly imo 10/1 over in Hong Kong. Won first time out at newmarket last year over a mile in a G3 and this Hong Kong trial race doesnt look so strong. Nothing here to fear. Speculative but at this price he is worth a punt imo. Would be surprised if he didnt place.
805pm Sha Tin
Eagle Mountain 10/1
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Have to hold my hands up about IC, I was badly wrong! Well played for keeping the faith! Standing on the line, everyone, including me thought he had got up. So was delighted when the result was called out as i had had a large bet on at 5/4! Great weekend again. I love this time of year, newbury saturday!
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Bloody Hell theyre good ratings for a seasons first time up for both horses. Only Kauto and Denman have ran any higher at any point over the last few years. I think Exotic may have run around about the 174 on a few occasions as well. If they are correct then i dont think you need to look too much further than those two and Denman for your Gold Cup winner in march. Im now seriously interested antepost each way on Imperiall Commander at 10/1. Initially i thought that was skinny but the more i think about it the more i think its a great price that will surely shorten.
Blimely savaloy your having a few nice saturdays out on the trot. Wish it was me. Im far too skint with xmas coming up
What you thinking for the Hennesy. Im not decided but ive kept coming back to Barbers Shop and Killyglen since ive been trying to figure this one out ?
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Lie Forrit is running again 2.05 Newbury. Tipped earlier in this thread I think. Definitely one to keep an eye on but would prefer the ground to be a bit softer.
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^^^ most of the field are only withing a few llbs of each other in that race though on the handicap and he is short enough. In fact i couldnt back him at 10s as i see any number that could win that race. no bet race imo. (watch him hack up lol)
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Agree but have had a bit as I like the horse. Also like the look of Doctor David each way in the 3.15 and there is a bit of money for it. Also on An Toileanach in the 2.10 Thurles.
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Cool. Good luck. Id go for Factotum in that 205pm race if choosing one. Im just betting what i put up earlier today as have £50 rolling onto it from a double i did. I guess i could be tempted by a little ew on factotum and maybe dee ee williams against puncehstown on his debut as he will at least come 2nd so 7/1 ew is a bet to noghtin imo.
Hopefully tommoor is the day for some more good bets. maybe vodka in the japan cup sunday. that seems a good ew bet to me.
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I have it down to 4. boringly those at the head of the market. Denman, Barbers, WAF and Killyglen. cant see anything other than a win from one of these. Im def not touching Denman as a bet. Ill be extatic if he wins for sporting reasons but he will need to be at his absolute best maybe even better to win here imo. it is of course possible. if he drifted to 6/1 or higher id start to think about it but ultimetly i dont see him doing it. Ill get a timeform racecard later and hopefully that will help me make a final decision. At the moment im still tossing up between barbers and killy with preference for the latter.
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A few bets today, got on bellvano early doors. Chunky bet for me, hoping to nick a few quid! Nothing for the hennessy yet, gonna wait to see how denman looks in the parade ring.
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I think I've backed Denman in every race it's run in the past 3 years and that's not going to change tommorrow. Hopefully he's over the little setbacks he suffered last season. Would be brilliant if he won.
Big E/W Denman for me. Plus thinking of backing a few others E/W to cover myself, State Of Play springs to mind. Will also be interesting watching this race with half an eye on the Grand National, a lot of potential Grand National hopefuls in this race.
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As i wrote earlier, my will is my each way selection, £50 ew with VCbet at 28/1. Nicely weighted with denman on gold cup form. Has had a run and will come on for that no doubt. Not expecting a win, but think he has a great each way chance after going through the race and at the moment i'm preferring to be with this one at nearly 5 times the price of barbers shop, who didnt get home in the gold cup.
Cappa Bleu falls into the could be anything catagory, bit of a negative that Paul Moloney prefers State of Play for me though.
My other bet comes in the last at newcastle and have taken the 10s with ladbrokes about horner woods. £100 win @ 10/1. Forgetting the last two runs, he has a massive chance if he can reproduce the RSA form. Stable is in good heart of late and looks to be well handicapped. Interesting connections swerved the hennessy to run here instead.
Holding all bets on denman until i see how he looks before hand.
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A few ive picked out althoug prob not sensible to back them all...will try re filter but so far:
At Newcastle think Binocular is a cert. I know solwhit is good and all the bla bla bla but i just have the feeling when all is said and done binocular will win and win well and is a very good price at evens. Savaloy obv had the feelig with kauto last weekend and ultimetly he collected. Think the same is true here.
Coe appeals in the last at 10/1 ish. The trainer is good here. Horner woods is the other and given the mention on here maybe he is the more solid. Im not sure.
At newburry: Finney appeakls in the first at 10/1 ish. Pasco and isnt that lucky both at nice each way prices.
Denmania and cappa bleu in the hennesy.
Days best play could be to back both tragalger road and dannis girl in the 315pm at 8/1 ew. These two should fight out the finish and one should prevail. Already both best in the race on ratings and are improvers where you couldnt say the same about any of the others. Was expecting these two to head the market at around 3/1 so to see these prices was a shcok.
Was hoping to see shillington an ew price in the last as if picking a days banker this was close to it. Couldnt see it out the frmae and thought would be tough to beat. Money prob significant so that could be a positive.
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We rushed around trying to get evens about binocular, cash in hand, couldn't get on and bloody glad we couldnt. Had a tenner each way on sublimity from the morning drive and thanked our lucky stars. 25/1 about a supreme novices winner was a giant price in hindsight but none of us would hear of defeat of the binocular, got the placepot up to a few quid, thanks to fairyland. Seeing denman win was unbelievable and ruby told us after that he considered his ride to be one of the best he'd ever given one and we agreed. What a grand day out, still buzzing now. Really gets the heart going this game.
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Hpward Johnson has had a great start at Carlisle winning first 2 races. Might be worth taking on his other 2 runners for the day - 2.00 Diamond Frontier & 2.30 Prince De Beauchene
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Nice. Only just seen Vodka won the Japan Cup yesterday
Been tipped a horse for today...Put 3/4 up on this thread and none of them have won so far with a 2nd place 14/1 the best Statisitcally that will chance at some point with a winner coming along Hope its and could well be today.
This one is from the best of the contacts i have who i will follow and ive not put any of his up on here yet as i havnt had one for a while.
Ill quote what i was told:
"Little Moor in the 3.30, Expected to run very well and decent price so back each way"
Nothing revolationary there. I just trust this racing friend and follow blind at all times when he sends me one. As i said its the best person i know for following in this way when they tip me one in such a way.
9/1 each way in an 8 runner race so if he is right then a place is not the most difficult of tasks in this sized field. Lets hope he is.
anyways:
Fokestone 330pm LITTLE MOOR 9/1 EW
Currently on the drift so better prices may be available closer to the off.
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Jesus that was awfull. Miles and miles down the field. You take your chances following others sometimes so maybe been caught in the put away club the last few times with these
Hope being put up late on here nobody else was on.
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Since ive been following racing been a privalige to have seen the two greatest horses on the Flat and over Jumps in at least the last 30 years. And all in the last couple of years:
Sea The Stars & Denman(yes ahead of Kauto Star imo)!
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Brilliant to watch, i have to say i agree with you about sea the stars! But its still kauto for me, the first horse i ever went out of my way to see in the flesh. Cant wait for boxing day now, just booked my tickets!
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3/5.....two left to go for today!
4/7 for the day with 2 at nice prices. More of the same tommoro i hope 
![[linked image]](http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/2548/babel.gif)
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