Ruto and Uhuru on trial will be Raila's downfall
For those who think they have seen the last of Uhuru and Ruto, they should be informed by the fact that great sympathy is usually shown to those who appear oppressed, even when they should, otherwise, be stinking quilt.
In 1975, Mark Mwithaga was elected as the Nakuru town MP while in prison. He had just been jailed for two years for beating his wife. His campaign against very stronger candidates was strengthened by the five years jail term, although he only served 2 after he won an appeal.
Many commentators on the Nakuru politics argue that had Mwithaga not been jailed, his chances of winning the Nakuru Town seat were slim. Sympathy voters who saw the then governments hand in his conviction landed him a lifeline.
Mr Mwithagas win was, however, in futility as the seat was later declared vacant, and a by-election held, which was won by Mr William Komen. The sympathy currently being accorded Uhuru and Ruto will be the strongest undoing factor for the Raila campaign. Whether Uhuru and Ruto are allowed to vie for the presidency or not, the two might surely be the determining factor on who will be our next president.
This should make Raila a very worried man indeed considering the votes he has already lost in the Rift Valley and Central Provinces over his fallout with the two iconic politicians. The Prime Minister needs to go back to his political drawing board, but considering the arrogance and sycophancy among those surrounding him, I doubt he will listen to the voice of reason.
The most likely politician to benefit from the rise and fall of Uhuru and Ruto is Kalonzo Musyoka. My crystal ball is showing a very reenergised man with a new lease of life.
He might be dismissed as opportunistic, but remember, hyenas have been the successful opportunistic animals, and never go hungry, even at a time of great famine and natural calamities. Hunting in a pack, the opportunistic hyenas terrorise even the strongest and most feared pride of lions. Indeed, nothing stands in their when the hunger pangs bite. The blessings in which the Kalonzo Musyoka team sees in the confirmation of charges against Uhuru and Ruto will only translate into reality only if the local judicial system rules that indeed, the two are not fit to stand for a public office.
If such a ruling happens, I can see the VP and his pack criss-crossing the valleys and hills of the Rift Valley, Central and other areas friendly to the ICC two, armed with hypothetical propaganda on who was behind all these. These will be premised on allegations, rightly or wrongly, that Uhuru and Ruto are victims of a certain powerful clique of politicians in the Raila Odinga camp.
The political landscape will change rapidly in the months to come. However, this political bloodletting will not translate into chaos like that witnessed before and after the 2007 elections. Kenyans have realised that the politicians game plan of setting brother against brother is a zero sum, and the consequences are dire. What is certain is that careers will be built on the tears of some politicians, while others will be destroyed on the jubilation of others.
This is because presidential contestant can no longer vie for a parliamentary seat and once her or she is rejected to lead the nation as the president, they are deemed unfit to lead his constituents. Only the bravest would risk their parliamentary seats in exchange for a slot to jump into the already muddled waters of the presidency.
Uhurus and Rutos stars will shine brighter with time because, should their appeals get rejected and full trial begins, their communities will identify with their suffering.
In case, the two get stuck with the charges at The Hague and the local courts ban them from running for any post, the two will bless others to advance their agenda.