Mudavadi has committed political suicide. He was better of as number two to Raila than being nowhere. He has been riding on the wave that ODM got under Raila. He knows Kikuyus will vote for their own, Luos for their own. The few votes he picks from Western, R.Valley, and the rest of 'Kenya' will not lead him anywhere. If he stuck with Raila, he would have benefitted wherever Raila got votes.
In any case, Mudavadi is good riddance for ODM. He did not add any value to ODM even in past parliamentary and presidential elections. Raila will now get a running mate who adds value to the party and his presidential bid. I would propose Ngilu or one politician from North Eastern or Coast.