It is rapidly becoming increasingly clear that all the noise Musalia Mudavadi has been making within ODM about the process for nominating a presidential candidate was just a smoke screen and excuse. It was a very well choreographed move to find a way to exit from ODM with as much sympathy votes as possible to help his presidential bid sponsored by a very powerful Kenyan.
Information just in from one of my sources indicates that the man has in fact been a mole all along. But for who? PNU? Certainly not!! Whole else then?
Amazingly political analysts have been analyzing local politics without giving much attention or thought to the third prominent and extremely powerful force in Kenyan politics. One Daniel arap Moi.
Many Kenyans are not aware of it but Moi is in fact related to Mudavadi.
Let me explain. Back in the 1950s Musalia's late father Moses Sabstone Mudavadi married a Turgen woman. One of my sources insists that the woman was Moi's sister but another laughs off the suggestion and says she was just a "very close relative" to Moi. But what is very clear is that over the years the Mudavadis have been relatives to the Mois for all intents and purposes. Indeed When Sabstone served in the Moi cabinet in the late 70s and most of the 80s, he was one of the very few ministers who was "untouchable" and immune to sackings. Local political analysts never figured out why.
There was another reason that drove the Moi's and Mudavadi to be such close knit families. Back in the 1960s when Moi was a mere primary school teacher with no ambitions that were higher than being a headmaster of some remote rural primary school it was Musalia's father who pushed Moi to enter politics and even went further and put in a good word for him with the colonial administration. In other words Moi owes his political career to the older Mudavadi.
To Musalia, Moi is a close relative and to Moi Musalia is a son whom he has a responsibility to look after on behalf of his dead friend and relative by marriage Sabstone Mudavadi.
Armed with this kind of background you will fully understand what I am about to say next.
Moi is still extremely powerful in Kenya and well respected at very high levels of government. His biggest problem since he left power has been how to protect the ill gotten family wealth. This has not been easy especially with tightening of money laundering laws worldwide aimed at people who move large sums of money around and have no justifiable or lawful source for the cash. This has led Moi to move a lot of his money away from Western capitals and even from secret Swiss accounts to Namibia where he is a great friend of the president. It is not clear where the rest of the billions are currently but there is evidence that a lot of it has been invested in the Kenyan and South African corporate sector through dummy foreign companies whose directors are said to be "abroad".
Moi's long experience as president has taught him to always be extremely careful and cover all his bases.
Now in the run up to the 2007 general elections Moi wanted to ensure that whatever side won (either PNU or ODM) the Moi family wealth would be protected. Raila Odinga already owes Moi some huge favours (but that is a story for another say). However Moi wanted some extra "insurance policy" and that insurance policy was Musalia Mudavadi who would have been Vice President had Raila ascended to the presidency.
Fast forward to 2012. Moi is very jittery about the new constitution and is retaining a very expensive team of constitutional lawyers who are closely monitoring the implementation process and interpreting what it could mean to Moi's ill gotten wealth. This is the reason why Moi has been throwing several spanners into the works when it comes to implementation (another story for another day). The bottom line is that the stakes are even higher for Moi this time round.
Inside sources assure me that all the noise being made about Gema is a smoke screen because Moi has already obtained full support for the Mudavadi candidature from Kibaki and it is a deal that Kibaki cannot go back on because Moi has promised to support him in his bid to stay away from the clutches of the ICC. So you can be sure that in the end Gema will vote as a block for Musalia (see my other report below on the Gema kingpin who will take over from Uhuru).
In summary Mudavadi has been a Moi mole in ODM all along and is the brand new Moi project for 2012. The old man will never support him in public because he has learnt his lesson from 2002 and the Uhuru project. But you can be sure that the massive Kanu machinery now being revamped is being prepared to support Mudavadi's bid for the presidency. And in return guess who will be Mudavadi's running mate? Gideon Moi of course. Now that is the kind of move that will neatly bag Kalenjin votes for Musalia. Some of my sources claim that Mudavadi is headed back to Kanu. But that would be the kind of foolhardy move that Moi is not capable of making. Better to have Mudavadi in another political party that will work closely with the massive Kanu grassroots machinery.
Folks, unless something very dramatic happens (which I assure you it will) I would like to present to you the next rather unexpected president of the banana Republic of Kenya. His Excellency President Musalia Mudavadi
Endela kucheza na Moi.
P.S. A late report I received as I was writing this is that the Kipsigis on the ground are already excitedly talking about a Mudavadi presidency. Imagine getting confirmation over a story even as you write it??!!!!!