Down. It is indeed naive to think that China be "business as usual" when it's two biggest markets, US and Europe, are flopping around. China is clearly slowing, and with it, goes the rest of Asia and South America. The World is so interlinked nowadays. We are set to see slow growth for many years to come, as countries and households work to repair severely damaged finances.
On steel daytonas, the reason why new ones are so difficult to see, is simply that the maker is making so few of those. Like you say, why sell 3 or 4, when the maker can make the same selling one. That's why in Asia at least, all the daytonas you see are the gold and blingy ones. More bucks per bang. A cynical way to extract more from a.customer. But Rolex is not PP. Not when they make a million a year. Much as they want to push their prices into PP territory, they are not going to be the next PP.