(Login jedly1) Moderator from IP address 120.19.170.145
and you have gone to a lot of trouble and asked for thoughts so here are my answers, this is what i see when i see what you have posted as your sample to create your lists.
i should preface by saying this doesnt even take into account the feedback , location, shipping risks sellers communication and attitude etc associated with any of the sellers, purely on my first 2min reaction if i searched on ebay for any of these pieces and the reasons i'd walk on by.
watch needs a service, a superdome($250), a bracelet($800) and a new set of hands($300) to be complete, and then it still has some rounded lugs, so price to correct ...$1400, so buy at $3500, IF you have the ability to find and buy the parts you need and access to a service and you are prepared to buy a watch that need work and invest your time in.. cost $4900 plus your time.
needs new glass, service $400, better hands $250, bracelet $400 and you are left still with a stained dial... cost to correct ...$1050 ... so over $4k for a gmt with stained dial..
needs a bracelet $400, a set of hands $250, a service $$400 and would still have a chipped dial at the end of it... total $4300 for a watch with chipped dial.
needs a new set of hands (small 24hr set) $6-700.. and a service(in rotor weight/auto asembly)$6-700 and at the end you would have a midcase showing signs of corrosion that only a brave man would buy with out holding and inspecting VERY carefully.
the ONE good watch shown, nice example, but still needs a bracelet for another $500 taking ti to over $5k, but good price, i seriosuly thoguht about buying it.
Virtually every piece you show is a project watch requiring both cash investment and the resources to carry out work and locate matching parts, i am sorry but this is not a sample of a market, this is a sample of project watches. I am very suprsed that you would use this calibre of watch and are not recognising the problems and costs yourself.
possibly very nice watch, i asked and didnt get, better quality pictures of the dial, so although it mostly checks out who is to say no touch ups, no scratches no grease stains .... i say this becasue i have in the past made the mistake of going off scans like this only to have watches turn up with all those problems, there was still an element of risk there that held me at $22k max, at $26k shipped that is the equivalent of £17600 which isnt cheap and isn't in line with your table, and doesn't allow for any of the risk factors
presuming ALL else was right its still a mk4 with a visiby chipped and repaired dial, and still sold for more than your list estimate.. that doesnt allow for the funky inner caseback engraving ( thats sspeicalst to know if its right or not) or any other possible issue.. for me i wouldnt buy a chipped drsd, but if i did itd take at LEAST $4-5k off.
you now seem to be trying to say something different about your list, is it a list of the market price that all have access to, or is it a list of what watches can and soemtimes are bought at by shops etc to make their way into the trade/and ulitmately to collectors (either peachy or project)?
this is not breaking news, where do you think dealers get their stock from, most stops along the line will add their costs 20-25%, why is this a problem ??, the shop keeper has rent and staff to pay, his job is to make money he lays down his capital and he bears the risk and for this he is rewarded.. he often has minimal knowledge and gambles, the middleman usually has a little more knowledge and the resources to get the watch to someone with more knowledge, but he still must invest his time, his knowledge and his capital..the dealer receives the watch and has all the same investment to make and costs to bare... we buy off the dealer because this process has filtered out the fakes, the stolen, the watches with issues, the dealer/seller uses his expertise that maybe the buyer doesnt have and gives a guarantee... these are all to be paid for .... the upshot of your suggestion is the revelation that dealers dont operate from charity but to make a profit selling their skills and connections... no shit sherlock
Good on you, Jed--this is an excellent point & post. All sellers...
April 10 2010, 6:50 PM
...are not created equal. To pretend that the person you are doing business with is not a significant factor re: pricing--i.e. a known quantity who is truthful and will stand by their watches vs. a total stranger with whom your only recourse in case of problems is a Negative feedback comment--is pure folly, IMO.
In addition to condition, I would have to say that this is the other prime factor for me as to what I am willing to pay for a watch: What is the character and reputation of the seller I am doing business with?
Well done & best,
Tom
This message has been edited by tomvox1 from IP address 70.23.98.31 on Apr 11, 2010 12:03 AM This message has been edited by tomvox1 from IP address 70.23.98.31 on Apr 11, 2010 12:00 AM This message has been edited by tomvox1 from IP address 70.23.98.31 on Apr 11, 2010 12:00 AM
everyone has their own opinion. The fact is, the greater your investment, the more you want to protect yourself and say all is great. IMO fact prices are down for most items maybe the exception is the rare pieces Milgauss, PN, and Military Subs. Many sellers who sell in VRM never tell the actual price an item is sold for. All they say is Thanks VRM when it sells. If you want a better look into the market, after sale state the sales price. When nothing is said it means to me the item didn't sell.
Unless the watch is sold and marked sold while on the...
April 10 2010, 7:50 PM
1st page of VRM the thread will get locked and the seller will be unable to follow up. Some pieces take a day or 2 or 3 to sell. By then the post is locked and a seller is unable to mark as sold. .
but claiming 50% is just unfounded sensationalism and i still havent seen anything to support the claim.
No offence intended but the same generalsied claims were made at the start of 2009 with no disticntion... 'roll back prices', '2003 price levels', 'the sky is falling'... a lot of people bailed out and took a kicking based on that kind of prophecy and gave up the things that gave them pleasure based on that kind of hype......12 mths on the sky didnt fall it just settled a little, quality is still king and for the last 6 months many of those people have been buying back in wondering why the hell they sold in the first place.. thats why there is such a strong reaction. most of the people commenting are the ones who kept on buying in a falling market through this hype and enjoyed more toys, so they are hardly investors.
an opinion is one thing, but to produce a 'claimed' evidence based definitive list to support your opinion, it is only fair that the eveidence can a) be presented and b ) stand up to scrutiny.
and for the last time .. watches are not an investment.... banks, building societes, property, gold, S&S, commodoties are investments
This message has been edited by jedly1 from IP address 120.19.170.145 on Apr 10, 2010 8:18 PM This message has been edited by jedly1 from IP address 120.19.170.145 on Apr 10, 2010 8:01 PM This message has been edited by jedly1 from IP address 120.19.170.145 on Apr 10, 2010 8:00 PM
Meh. The more I read these sorts of threads the more I realize how useless they are...
April 10 2010, 8:22 PM
...it is all subjective and the motives are immediately suspect from any position one takes. Everybody is either lowballing or highballing--what a Machiavellian bunch of wankers around here, eh? LOL.
So all I will add is this concrete bit of info:
I was at a dealer friend of mine in NYC this past Friday and noted that he had two nice loose matte GMTs in his case. I asked him the prices and was mildly surprised at them being a touch high in my estimation. He told me the Rolex Sports watches have gone up steadily in the last few months or so and that is why he was pricing them aggressively.
Now, maybe I wouldn't pay his price. But someone was willing to, as one was already On Hold. And I'm sure he'll sell the other one shortly, as they are very nice pieces. And who am I to argue with a fellow who makes his real world living selling watches?
There are a lot of different buyers out there and not all of them are comfortable buying through the Internet. These "face-to-face only" buyers will pay more from a brick-and-mortar dealer in general than most prices asked through an Internet sales forum and so that has to be factored into any so-called expert opinion on "average values" or "future trends." This also relates to my prior point about guys with solid track records being able to get more money for their pieces even on the sales corners than Johnny-come-latelys or eBay mystery men.
Lastly, IMHO the theory about watches going for massively less than their asking prices on the VRF Sales Corner is misguided. There can be a bit of play between the Ask and the Get but to think it's more than 2-3% is not realistic. Which is not to say that prices are not publicly dropped a few times until they find a responsive level, of course...
YMMV & best,
T.
(Login orchi) VRF Contributing Member 60.50.78.231
TQ for taking the time to check..List of prices is NOT wrong.Prices down 50%..++
April 10 2010, 7:48 PM
Err...Orchi said...
"this is just from Orchi's own observation...
in eBay or elsewhere...
++ news gathered from a couple of hardcore dealers...
Rates shown could be +- 1K or 2K difference...
depending on its overall conditions...
Or...+- depending on its accessories or provenance...
Or...+- subject to Buy or Sell...(willing Buyer/Seller)
Rates quoted at PAWNSHOPS: May be a lot cheaper..."
The same pieces which you have checked would have been...
sold for a lot more in 2007/2008...
BUT it was fiercely disputed...by several Buddies...
Agreed by several Buddies...
Understood by several Buddies...
Orchi merely asked if others might offer comments...
on the prices of RARER pieces like 626x...PN...COMEX...etc. etc.
All heck seems to have broken loose thereafter...
with no indication or comments of prices on those...
BUT nevermind those negative innuendos...sarcasm or comments by others
(Senior /Veteran Buddies?)...
Orchi seems to have found the right place to get the CORRECT feedbacks...
Thanks anyway...
n have a beautiful Sunday...
Orchi is taking GINGER...
out for a walk in the park...
Best regards
Orchi.
This message has been edited by orchi from IP address 60.50.78.231 on Apr 10, 2010 8:07 PM This message has been edited by orchi from IP address 60.50.78.231 on Apr 10, 2010 8:02 PM This message has been edited by orchi from IP address 60.50.78.231 on Apr 10, 2010 7:59 PM
Prices are heavily discounted on the "higher end". A lot of this stuff is seen more at shows where big pieces sell. I recall a 4 line gilt 6538 passing through hands starting at $75k and final buyer at $100k in early 2008 in NY.
$60k today. eBay shows a general trend but once again very dependent on the sellers reputation, return policies, customer service and pictures. Not sure it's quite 50% but I think more like 40% on the greatly inflated ones PN, 6538, DRSD, COMEX and more like 20-30% Tudor Subs. 1603 & 6695 haven't changed.
This message has been edited by moelarrycu from IP address 74.108.56.193 on Apr 10, 2010 8:36 PM
this is a global market, take out the currency changes.. so using your example
2008 $100k = £50k.
2010 $60k = £4ok
so even without seeing the pieces and making sure we aint talking lemons vs oranges it aint 50% or even 40% send me some details on the 6538 at $60k mark id appreciate having a look at that price...
It seems there's a lot of dealing/trading on this site and more recently numerous posts inquiring as to values etc. The 6538 that I referenced was in my hands both times. Again, we're talking a select number of pieces and when it happens, in the minds of many, that's the new price. All of this is, as Tom pointed out, conditioned by what side of the fence you're on. Buyer, seller, collector, dealer & pawnshop all have different motivations and hopes. Is it half full or half empty. You decide. This was my feel on the "market" and currency definitely plays a part. I only am able to think in dollars and since I only have two left, I can only think in terms of those two
-m
This message has been edited by moelarrycu from IP address 74.108.56.193 on Apr 10, 2010 9:10 PM
From some of the comments I have heard, VRM will never be a true indicator of fair market value. Asking prices are just that. Unless the seller posts the actual sales price, we never get a true indicator of value.
the fair & actual value of any vintage are inside everyone of us, including both collectors & dealers ! Dealers have to make a living therefore they would be careful about how much they would pay for any vintage. Collectors also have a value meter on these vintage too, very depending on the condition & accessories that come with it !! Market value is determine by the buyers - different buyers might want to pay different dollars on the same watch !
just my own opinion !
Market value is determined by sales in the marketplace (that is the actual purchase price) of a particular watch. Value is determined by more than one sale of this watch. If VRM were a true marketplace than the actual sales prices would have to be to be listed after the sale was completed. This probably won't happen because you know why. Many nice watches don't sell because they are overpriced.
i do agree with you that "Market value is determined by sales in the marketplace" but remember who determine these sales - THE BUYERS / Customers. Without the buyers/customers who are willing to pay a particular amount to any products on sale then there is no market place !! What i am saying is there are no fixed price trend for any vintages - you can have a range of price for them but you cannot be so specific saying 5513 is US3K & 5512 is US3.5K etc..etc..Even with the modern new Rolex like Daytona 116520 some might pay US8.5K for it but some might have to pay US10K for it - and we are talking about the verysame new watch ! Although there is a RRP (recommended retail price) for any new Rolexes but you still can pay differently according to the buyer or where you buy it from !!
Just my humble opinion anyway !!
when there are sufficient sales a value range is established. Some examples will be very good and some not so good. With an understanding of this you can buy intelligently. I hope you and everyone else understand what I am saying. A lot more can be said, but I am trying to feep it simple.
buying smart for me is to get yourself the right watch that you love within your affordable budget! With the very same vintage model i do not mind to pay a bit more for a good watch - than pay a little less for a crap watch ! And this is my point - and i always admit there should be a benchmark of price/value on these vintages but you just cannot set the price/value like buying a new Rolex !!
You really have too much time on your hands mate !!
Great post though and probably sums up very neatly what we have all been thinking in the posts over the last few days.
There is some cheap rubbish out there (and some muppets still buy it on ebay)and there always will be. Whatever price this is at I'm not sure its relevant to most of us?
I don't see the really good pieces getting any cheaper. Certainly for us in the UK with the way the ER is they are getting more expensive.
Plus I'm seeing far less of the good pieces coming available - collectors are holding onto their flawless pieces and the growth in this area over the last few years means a lot are going into collections and staying there.
Just look at the dealers who deal in the very good examples usually - most have very little stock.
There is plenty of rubbish out there though...and some of the prices these fetch astonish me almost daily!
I have always found that you definitely get what you pay for..
April 11 2010, 5:33 PM
cheaper definitely does not make better in the vintage collectable world..you will remember the fine quality of a piece long after the pain of spending a few extra dollars has subsided.
just my penny (cant afford two!)
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