Russia, Turkey: The Resurgent Powers' Wary Approach

Russia, Turkey: The Resurgent Powers' Wary Approach
June 25, 2009 | 1710 GMT




Summary

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has quietly postponed a trip to Ankara to meet with his Turkish counterpart. The delay highlights the caution with which the two countries, both resurgent powers reasserting themselves in their respective spheres of influence, are dealing each other, as well as Turkeys complex balancing act between Washington and Moscow.

Analysis
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Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has postponed his June 25 visit to Turkey, a Kremlin source has told STRATFOR. Putins trip to Turkey was scheduled shortly after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyep Erdogan paid a visit to Sochi on May 16 for a private meeting with Putin. Now, Erdogan will have to wait another three weeks before he sees Putin again in Ankara.

Russia and Turkey have reason to deal with each other cautiously at the moment. Russia is a resurgent power, determined to assert its will across the former Soviet periphery. Naturally, that puts Moscow in direct conflict with Washington, which has a core, strategic interest in limiting Russian expansion but also has its hands full in trying to wrap up the war in Iraq and in focusing attention back to the war in Afghanistan.

Enter Turkey. Turkey, like Russia, is also on an ascendant path. Ankara is rediscovering its Ottoman-era influence after spending the past several decades as a geopolitical hermit. Its influence spreads across the Islamic world to the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia as well as through Eurasia in the Caucasus and the Balkans.

Given their overlapping spheres of influence, Turkey and Russia are natural competitors. But they have little interest in stepping on each others toes at the moment, as both are focused on locking down their respective peripheries and both have levers to obstruct each others agendas.

The United States would much rather see Turkey act more assertive with the Russians, however. Washington has a full plate, and needs a strong ally capable of countering or at least limiting Russian expansion. U.S. President Barack Obama already is having a quite a time finding such an ally in Europe, when key players like Germany are already closely bound with Moscow and have no desire to provoke the Russian bear. So, Obama has focused much of his efforts on Turkey, a NATO ally with influence in all the critical areas where the United States could desperately use a helping hand.

Turkey has thus found itself in the middle of the tug-of-war between Moscow and Washington, but the Turks are now strong enough and confident enough in their own abilities to the extent that the do not necessarily feel the need to latch on to either side. Indeed, Turkeys best bet at the moment is to portray itself as unpredictable and open to all possibilities to throw off both American and Russian calculations, avoid committing to one side or the other, and preserve its independence. So, Turkey will entertain strategic defense deals with the Americans, get to work in stabilizing the hot spots of the Islamic world and regularly advocate log-jammed European energy projects, like Nabucco, that circumvent the Russian network. At the same time, the Turks will turn back to the Russians and negotiate comparable defense deals and energy projects like Blue Stream II that tighten Russias energy grip over the West. In essence, Turkey must remain the pivot and entertain seemingly contradictory policies to maximize its geopolitical benefits.

This is not exactly an easy balancing act for the Turks to maintain. For example, the United States is privately encouraging a Turkish agenda to smooth relations over with long-time foe Armenia in order for Turkey to have a stronger and longer-term counterweight to the Russians in the Caucasus. The negotiations between Turkey and Armenia, however, are enormously complex. Russia, Armenias primary patron, is chaperoning the negotiations every step of the way while Azerbaijan, Turkeys close ally and Armenias biggest rival, is embracing the role of the saboteur in any potential Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.

And the situation apparently is becoming more complex in the lead-up to Obamas showdown with Putin and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow on July 6-8. Russia is testing the new U.S. president to see how far he is willing to go in meeting critical Russian demands, such as:

* Freezing U.S. ballistic missile defense plans in Central Europe.
* Halting NATO expansion.
* Replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

One of the ways Russia likes to remind the United States of the consequences of not meeting such demands is to highlight Russian leverage in places like Iran and Afghanistan, where Moscow has a number of ways to make life difficult for the United States. At the same time, Russia is also giving the United States a taste of cooperation by facilitating limited defense deals in Central Asia. This was most recently evidenced by Krygyzstans decision to extend the lease of the U.S. air base at Manas, but that deal will only be finalized if Moscow gives its consent.

With so much on the table between Russia and the United States, Putin needs to proceed carefully with the Turks. Russia has no desire for a confrontation with Turkey, but Moscow wants to be absolutely clear on U.S. intentions before Putin sits down with the Turkish prime minister. The Russian media has been pumping out stories on a May 25-26 visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Kyrgyzstan, framing the trip as Turkey going behind Russias back and negotiating secretly with the Kyrgyz leadership on behalf of Washington to secure Manas. Erdogan is indeed thought to have discussed Manas with the Krygyz leadership during that trip, but Turkey also knows that pushing too far will complicate its relationship with Russia. Still, Russia is clearly signaling that it does not entirely trust Turkish intentions, especially as Washington has made a strengthened alliance with Turkey a core component of its foreign policy.

So, Putin has delayed his trip to Turkey at the last minute by three weeks. This way, he can meet with Obama in Moscow first to get a better read of U.S. strategy, then hold a critical meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel a week later, and after that go to Ankara to meet with Erdogan.

This series of meetings will be highly informative as to just how aggressively Russia intends to push its agenda in the weeks and months ahead. At the time of this writing, word of the meetings delay has not yet been released to the press. STRATFOR is told this is because Putin did not wish to draw attention to it, and thus avoid fueling rumors that the delay is due to friction between Russian and Turkey. After all, grand strategies take time and the way this geopolitical chess match is shaping up, Turkey and Russia both understand that now is the time to tread carefully.