The Thousand Warhead Weapon
by James Dunnigan
August 22, 2009
Wargames and detailed analysis of possible Chinese attacks on Taiwan, indicate that the basic Chinese strategy might work, and do so within days. The key to such a blitz is the 1,300 Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of these are based on the coast opposite Taiwan (180 kilometers away across the Taiwan Straits). The Chinese missiles carry one ton or half ton conventional (high explosive or cluster bomb) warheads, and were expected to be used to try and cripple Taiwanese air force and navy, as well as attacking headquarters and communications targets. Almost simultaneously, China would try to invade with airborne and amphibious forces. Without those missiles, Taiwans's superior air and naval forces would make it very difficult, if not impossible, for the invasion force to cross the straits. The wargames play out various targeting strategies, and defensive moves the Taiwanese could take. In most cases, the Chinese succeed. The barrage of missiles do serious damage to Taiwanese air and naval forces, giving Chinese air and naval forces an opportunity to get ground forces ashore.

In response to this threat, Taiwan has signed a $154 million contract with a U.S. firm to upgrade the island nations Patriot missile systems. These hardware and software changes will make the Taiwanese Patriot batteries equal in performance to those used by the U.S. Army. That is, the Taiwanese Patriot systems will be able to fire the PAC-3 anti-missile missile, and station the Patriot launchers many kilometers from the system radars. Taiwan has also ordered hundreds of PAC-3 missiles. But even with these improvements, the Chinese still have a good shot at winning a quick victory. Taiwan is looking to deploying its naval and air forces differently, to minimize the effects of the ballistic missiles.

Taiwan, increasingly anxious about this situation, boosted its defense spending by about 15 percent last year (to $10.5 billion). China spends over five times as much on defense, to support about two million troops. Taiwan has only 350,000 troops, and a population of 23 million, compared to 1.3 billion on the mainland. Taiwans's GPD is $650 billion, compared to $2.7 trillion for China. Thus the per capital income of Taiwan is more than ten times that of the mainland. Taiwans military is based on the American model, with an emphasis on quality. China based its military on the Soviet model (where quantity has a quality all its own), although for decades the emphasis was on mobilizing a huge force of guerillas. Now China is trying to develop a force that can fight on Western terms (high tech operated by well trained troops.)

While many Taiwanese still see the United States as the ultimate guarantor of Taiwanese independence, they see China as increasingly capable of grabbing the island before the U.S. can intervene. So while the Taiwanese don't have to be strong enough to defeat a Chinese invasion, they do have to be strong enough to hold the Chinese back until American reinforcements can show up.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/The-Thousand-Warhead-Weapon-8-22-2009.asp




Provost

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.

Calvin Coolidge, President of the United States 1924-1929

With recent leaps in PLAN capability and technology there is no advantage for Taiwan.

I'd take one of the Flankers over a Block 20 F-16 too.

I see no way of Taiwan defending itself against a communist invasion without the immediate intervention of US forces. Especially since the Commies aren't THAT hated in ROC anyway....

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"deeds, not words"

"I'd take one of the Flankers over a Block 20 F-16 too. "

The 'block 20' f-16s are so named for political reasons (to establish that they were a generation behind current US inventory) despite the fact that they were newly built block 50s.

The SU-30MKK's are still better than the Block 20 F-16's. They have comparable RADAR's and the Su-30 outclasses the F-16 in all other aspects. The MK2 especially.



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"deeds, not words"

I'd take a Mirage 2000 before an F16 if facing a flanker.

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Some data are outdated ... China' GDP is $4.2 Trillion (or $7.1 Trill in PPP), not $2.7 TRillion .. huge different, and Chinese defence spending is over $70B, not $50B

hard to believe the article was written by by James Dunnigan in August 2009 ... outdated data , I thought he was better than that

The scenario assumes a cold start attack which is pretty unlikely...not to mention the US and EU (and possibly Russia) would immediately establish a trade embargo. What do you think would happen to the Chinese Communist Party hold on power if the Chinese economy shrunk by 20% overnight?

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"Patriotism is your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it."
George Bernard Shaw

^^ Trust me 3/4th or atleast 2/3rd of China wont even know that their economy has shrunk by 20% overnight.

For all its economic liberalisation dont forget that China is still a one party autocratic commie regime.




colours of Kaziranga

"^^ Trust me 3/4th or atleast 2/3rd of China wont even know that their economy has shrunk by 20% overnight.

For all its economic liberalisation dont forget that China is still a one party autocratic commie regime."

It is hard to hide the fact, to those affected, that there is no food on their table...

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"Patriotism is your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it."
George Bernard Shaw

"meemperor)
the Su-30 outclasses the F-16 in all other aspects. The MK2 especially".

You're more than welcome to name them.

Air combat is not only about sheer performances...

M 2.2 isn't cuting the mustard these days but it have a cost in other aspects as you say.

8 AAMs instead of 4 aren't of any use when you can't get radar lock or is your IR seekers can be fooled by flares and TWR is computed with 50% internal fuel.

I see many reasons why the F-16 would be just as capable in this role as the Su-30 equiped with Chinese AAMs and ECMs.

The Chinese superiority on paper is just that, paper statistics.


Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html

WAFF syndrome explained:

= A pathological liar is someone who often embellishes his or her stories in a way that he or she believes will impress people.

= In psychology, mythomania (also known as pseudologia fantastica or pathological lying) is a condition involving compulsive lying by a person with no obvious motivation.
http://www.bushywood.com/mythomania.htm

M 2.2 isn't cuting the mustard these days but it have a cost in other aspects as you say.

8 AAMs instead of 4 aren't of any use when you can't get radar lock or is your IR seekers can be fooled by flares and TWR is computed with 50% internal fuel.
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Hmm, so the F-35 won't have any problems then?



When I was young I used to pray for a bike, then I realized that God doesn't work that way, so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness.