http://www.towardsunity.org/article-eu-02.phtml


How Far will the EU Expand?

Mar. 2, 2009

"Wider or deeper?" So goes the continual debate on EU enlargement. While a "wider EU" includes controversial applicants such as Turkey, a "deeper EU" is often described to feature an elected President of Europe, Foreign Minister, and unified defence structure.

So how wide and deep will the EU go? Well, here is one prediction.

Of all member-states, the UK is the greatest proponent of a wider EU. In fact, the Anglo-American alliance is the primary backer of Turkey's bid to join the union. Doing so would achieve two objectives: (1) reward Turkey for its NATO-orientation, and (2) prevent further political integration of the continent. To expand on the second (and most important point) a union-wide vote for the election of an EU President will never be accepted by the rest of Europe with a large (and rapidly growing) electorate of Turkish Muslims. Think of it this way, what would happen to the stability of the US if Mexico was admitted into their union?

On the "deeper side" of the debate, we find all of other member-states, with the possible exception of the Czech Republic. Luckily for them, their argument will win the day because the UK won't stay in the EU for much longer.

Its way out of the scope of this article to hammer out all of the reasons why the UK is a second-class citizen in the EU. The island-nation is really more of an observer than a participant in Europe. Let's make note of the fact that the UK is the only member-state to receive a reimbursement on its EU fees, and is neither apart of the Schengen border-control free area (which includes even some non-EU states), nor the monetary union, nor the Charter of Rights.

Now, let's consider the furious British opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, and the effect of its probable ratification. First, a huge majority of the UK public is against Lisbon, for anybody in doubt, just take a look at the recent demonstration held across the UK against the use of foreign (read: Eastern European) workers. Second, acknowledge that the only reason why the government managed to squeak the treaty through parliament if the first place was because the document was pronounced dead following its defeat by the Irish. Third, the opposition Conservative Party has vowed to revisit Lisbon by holding a referendum should they win the next election, which most polling indicates they will - easily. Forth, the remaining three Lisbon holdouts - the Czech Republic, Poland, and Germany - will almost certainly ratify the treaty should it pass an Irish referendum.



A true continental-union

Now that all the players are setup, all we need is a trigger incident. How about this: Ireland is slated to hold a second referendum on Lisbon by October of this year. In the face of a global recession, polling in January indicated that a majority of the Irish (55% to 37%) are now in favour of Lisbon. And so the dominoes fall one by one: the Irish pass Lisbon; Poland, the Czech Republic, and Germany ratify; the treaty comes into effect; bolstered by an outraged British public the Conservatives come to power in the UK and hold a referendum on Lisbon (and in a sense the UK being apart of the EU); referendum is defeated in a landslide; realizing the country cannot participate in the EU without passing the treaty, the UK withdraws from the EU.

How will the UK survive outside the EU? Well I can think of a few ideas. But for now, let's focus on what a victory for the "wider side" shall mean for the future direction of the union.

For one, Turkey's days of entertaining membership will be gone. Over the next fifteen years, the Balkan nations will slowly be absorbed one by one. Iceland will join sooner rather than later in order to save a complete meltdown of its currency. Norway will eventually choose to reunite with its Scandinavian siblings. Switzerland, already part of the free-trade area and Schengen agreement will acknowledge that the continent has finally caught up to its own level of maturity and ascend to its rightful place at the heart of Europe.

While new nations are joining the EU, older member-states will be joining the monetary union, just as they are bound to do so under their accession agreements. In time, the Euro will truly be the single currency of the European continent.

Following Lisbon, and the subsequent creation of an appointed EU President, it becomes only a matter of time before public pressure forces the democratization of Europe's most powerful political position - leading to an elected President of Europe.

I think this much we can all agree on. It may take 20, 30, or even 50 years, but the aforementioned scenario is almost inevitable given the long-tern trend towards greater human organization. I think it's the next part where you'll find the most disagreement.

In this scenario, the war over Europe, which has characterized the continent for almost a century, being waged by the flank powers of Russia and Anglo-America, comes to an end at long last, won by neither side, but the rise of the center. What happens to the flanks that are now faced with a politically and economically united battleground, which can no longer be carved up into eastern and western spheres of influence?

Considering the western flank, it's my belief that the UK will ultimately recognize that its future lies in the forging of an Anglo-American Union, formalizing the alliance which has ruled the world for nearly 200 years. With so much talk surrounding the rise of China and India and the eclipsing of the American superpower, the populations of the Anglo-nations may be in a more amicable mood to pool their sovereignty in an effort to retain their influence in the world.

When we turn our attention to Russia however, things get a little trickier. Even if Russia gobbled up Belarus and Ukraine (or just the Russian eastern half) it wouldn't come close to regaining its Cold-War superpower status. In a world of continental-unions, Russia has a relatively small and declining population. Thus, if Russia is to pursue the life of a nation-state forever, it will have to eventually accept a diminished stature, just as the US would.

Therefore, I think we should consider the possibility that Russia, along with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine will complete the expansion of the European Union. Does it sound ridiculous, the idea of a continental-union spanning across the Eurasian landmass all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific? Then tell it to the original thirteen colonies that dreamt of a union extending from sea to shining sea.

Furthermore, the complete expansion of the EU may be closer than you think. Let's recall that the EU is using the Stabilization and Association Process to methodically integrate the Balkans into the union. The process is based on talks with countries that have expressed interest in accession. The EU typically concludes Association Agreements in exchange for political and economic concessions. The remaining six Balkan nations enveloped by the union are to various degrees on their way to eventual membership.

Could such a process be used to integrate Eastern Europe and the Southern Caucasus into the EU? Well guess what? The process has already begun. In March of 2006, the EU introduced an "Eastern Partnership" which includes the six aforementioned members of Eurasia. The purpose of the partnership is to offer the states Association Agreements based on their individual progress on making strong political commitments. The EU also plans on stepping up assistance to its eastern neighbours from 450 million in 2008 to 785 million in 2013.

In my opinion, this is a clear a signal as any that the long-term objective of the EU is to stabilize it's eastern flank, and incorporate it into a federation spanning the northern portion of the Eurasian landmass.

The world should prepare itself for this eventuality and expedite the integration process. I'm looking at you South America, Africa, and South Asia.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

the long term perspective should be russia and not turkey.... if someone told you serbia was about to join eu ten years ago they would have called you nuts

just wait another 10 years....

russia needs europe since they cannot win a race for power with china and they know this very well






Napoleon auf St. Helena: "Hätte der Himmel gewollt, dass ich als deutscher Fürst geboren wäre und hätten Sie mich einmal zu Ihrem Kaiser gewählt und ausgerufen so scheint mir noch Heute, dass Sie nie von mir abgefallen wären und ich Heute nicht hier sitzen müsste."

EU is a joke, it doesnt determine any major alliances. Germany has stronger cooperation with Russia than with Lithuania, and Lithuania is a part of the EU. One reason why EU in its current form will never attract Russia is because it looks down upon companies like Gazprom.

The chicoms are a problem because of their ambitions in the Russian Far East, but it would be beneficial for EU to assist Russia irregardless if Russia is part of EU or not.

Why EU even considers Turkey is beyond me, they must really be in love with the turkish refugees.

--------------------------------------------

"EU is a joke"

Yeahh mate.. That is absolutely correct point !!!
What about USA in EU ?

We have the NAU and the AAU

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, Hmmm!!! Then

or Both South-North Korea in EU like Cyprus model???

ill take south korea or japan over turkey any day






Napoleon auf St. Helena: "Hätte der Himmel gewollt, dass ich als deutscher Fürst geboren wäre und hätten Sie mich einmal zu Ihrem Kaiser gewählt und ausgerufen so scheint mir noch Heute, dass Sie nie von mir abgefallen wären und ich Heute nicht hier sitzen müsste."

Who are you ? A Keko ?? Who gives a sh@t to you?

THE MAP YOU HAVE IS PRECISE.

European union will expand all the way in Vladivostok.

by the n it will change name either to European federation or European confederation.


here is a map to help you understand the regional integration with in European union that is happening and will complete with in the next 2 decades.


turkey?
turkey will never become a member state in e.u.nor Azerbaijan( that is far more European than turkey is) nor any other central Asia country with the exception of Kazakhstan.

American will find it hard to understand why Russian belongs into e.u since they still live in the cold war era, or believe that any European share their feelings about Russia.

Well, that would be a logical union of Russia with the rest of Europe. If that will ever be, then the world will start another "industrial evolution" and escape the current modern dark ages, where USA is the inquisition and Bin Laden the evil witch. All this circus will eventually be past and the future can start.

But Russia's relationships with Europe were at least funny, in history. Too many dinosaurs must disappear, to make rooms for just a bigger one.
In a perfect world, that could happened, but for now, while EU is dependent on Russia's gas it just can't be. When everyone will be energetically independent and Russia will leave the crap they do on EU's borders, maybe. Till then, expect a catholic Poland to import American Weapons and put a distance between Russia and EU as long as they can. You can expect a Russian starvation and collapse, with time, so that's why, for Russia, EU can be the only ally, not an enemy and for sure, not a crap.

in case you havent notice poland has taken a u turn in its policies since the last elections.
it actually has the more pro european government in central Europe.

the old and new Europe are nonsense the neocons are mushing up.
in reality there is no such alignment of powers in e.u.

even u.k is softening its positions when facing up isolation with in e.u.


e.u procedures are a 1000 tone tank running over a watermelon that can describe efficiently the influence Americans neoconservatives have with in e.u.

Russia is powerful enough to stand on its own. The Chinese will never be rich enough per capita or stable enough domestically to challenge Russia over Siberia.

well man, stop dreaming. Russia was never powerful enough.
It was powerful when it had the soviets.

In the near future? Most likely the Ukraine and the entire Balkans will be taken into the Union within the next decade or two.

Russia might come around one day. After all, the EU is economic based not really all that political. Russia would veto anything remotely like the Lisbon treaty.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind usimmensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."


"As a Internet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."

Well is only economically, yet.
It doesn't take that much long, to sign some papers, if that's what impresses you. What is economically, IS military and at all levels. Economy rules, not tanks and airplanes. Economy, make those too.

Not when one member starts a war with someone outside of the club, then national interest comes in. Doubt many countries would willingly go to war cause of one of the smaller members.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind usimmensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."


"As a Internet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."

EU is there for the strong to control the weak, Russia has little need for EU. The current status quo is optimal, cooperate with those we like and ignore the ones we dont.

Roma gypsies shouldnt even be in this thread, they are everyone bitch anyway.

--------------------------------------------

Roma gypsies shouldnt even be in this thread, they are everyone bitch anyway.
---

this is why trying to have an intelligent conversation with this guy is a total waste of time.

How nice that an "iranian" decided to way in, people always care about what they say......

--------------------------------------------

EU fears of Turkey.

It's funny and sad at the same time how little people know about the EU.


------------------------------
#Neda
------------------------------
_{I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours. -- Stephen Roberts}


------------------------------

Indeedly.


Fair winds......
Dauntless sons of Celtic sires
Whose souls the love of freedom fires,
Hark! ev'ry harp to war inspires
On Cader Idris side.
See the brave advancing,
See the brave advancing,
Each well-tried spear
Which Saxons fear,
In warlike splendour glancing.
Proud Harlech from her frowning tow'rs
Pours forth her never failing pow'rs.
Rouse, heroes, glory shall be ours,
March on, your country's pride!

I think it'll be a long time (50-75 years) before Russia actually considers joining the EU.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not as far as Turkey.