JSF Market Analysis: How Many JSFs Will Be Produced?


(Source: Johan Boder for Dutch Parliament Defense Commission; issued Oct. 6, 2009)



How many Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters will be manufactured? Optimistic marketing figures say that market opportunities for up to 5,000 6,000 F-35s are possible. The Dutch government structurally uses a number of 4,500 JSFs in its JSF Business Case calculations. These optimistic numbers are widely used amongst governmental and industrial organisations in several JSF Partner countries. However, if this parameter (4,500-6,000 JSFs) is wrong, the foundation of a lot a calculations, expectations, nice promises, non-binding contracts and investment decisions is also wrong.

This parameter is the foundation of the Dutch Business Case [see #51.1], the foundation of the Dutch participation in the JSF development stage (SDD) and one of the foundation of the Dutch project Maintenance Valley Brabant. Similar decisions and projects in other countries are also based on the same foundation: 4,500 to 6,000 JSFs will be manufactured.

But it is not only an important question whether the calculation of one of the most important parameters in the JSF Business Case discussion since 2001 is right. All calculations about procurement price, maintenance cost, cost of later upgrades are highly influenced by this parameter. There is a strong relationship between production cost and production quantities [see #51.2].

In this report it will be made clear that this essential parameter is marketing hype only, a fata morgana (i.e., a fairy taleEd.) Already in 2001 the projections of the fighter market were too optimistic and since the market expectations havent increased.

This report is based on a document, dated August 30, 2008, titled Analysis Business Case parameter 4,500 JSFs [see #51.3], prepared for several Dutch Members of Parliament.

A more detailed extension of that document used and defended in the Dutch Parliament Hearing of the Standing Committee of Defense in April 2009. After questions about some details, the author decided to add more detailed background information to this document and to translate it into English. This new version is submitted to the Standing Committee of Defense of the Dutch Parliament.


Full report (136 pages in PDF format) hosted by defense-aerospace.com.
http://new.isoshop.com/dae/dae/articles/communiques/JSF_MARKETANALYSIS_JOBO.pdf


(EDITORS NOTE: This very exhaustive report by an independent Dutch expert examines in detail the various figures provided by Lockheed Martin and the JSF Program Office to prospective JSF partners, including the Netherlands, to support the JSFs business case in these countries. The author demonstrates that, while Lockheed and JSF PO are still using figures based on the state of the fighter market in the late 1990s, these are no longer credible. The potential market for JSF is far smaller, argues the author, and will likely run to less than 3,200 units, compared to the over-optimistic 4,500-6,000 aircraft still claimed by Lockheed and the JPO.
This means that the value of subcontracts and coproduction offered to potential buyers is also smaller, and this undermines the business case on which individual countries will base their decision on JSF.
The report, although sometimes not as clear as it could be, includes a useful in-depth study of the worlds current fighter fleets, and the status of fighter replacement plans.)
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/108765/foreign-partners-short_changed-as-jsf-production-may-not-exceed-3%2C200.html


Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html

Are you going to try and convince us again that there were more Mirage 2000s manufactured/sold then F-16s ?

---

Easy done,troll.

Now please, put your money where your stinky mouth is and SHOW US, ME saying this.

Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSo0duY7-9s




"He lives in a world where concept is reality..."

I once lived in France,
but left for Angleterre,
I dream up flying in planes,
and invent some sources too,
but when it comes to proving it,
it's Tampax down the drain!

I don't think the US will buy more than 1000-1200. And the final 200-300 of those just because of industrial-regional-politics reasons and not military requirements.

None of the JSF partners will pick up as many as once considered either. Norway might be an exception though. And the US Navy only plan to get 260 C models, This will probably be cut over time as well as the B model production for both the Marines and international customers. There is no room on the market or any countries talking about any kind of purchases that might even create up to 6000 jets. No chance.

2000 jets in 20 years, 3000 in 30 years. Perhaps.

----
GRIPEN - not your ordinary fighter.

The whole point is:

If these figures had been made public at the time of the Dutch competition, Rafale would have won it hands up.

Makes you wonder about the near future when F-35 comes in service...

Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html

F-35's future is much brighter than Rafales, that is certain.

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For Norways part, I hope our government come to their sences when they get the
real pricetagg off jsf and cancell the whole thing.
I would prefer gripen, because off the easy and low maintanace cost.
By the way, I have always wondered what happens to the stealth coating plates
of stealth planes in snow, ice blizzard weather. With ice drops raining at the
planes. Heard that f22 needed to be stored inside hangars or else they needed costly repairs and maintance in this coditions, and if that is the case, it will be an costly plane we get.

If these figures had been made public at the time of the Dutch competition, Rafale would have won it hands up.

Makes you wonder about the near future when F-35 comes in service...

ROTFLMAO You just made my day Tampax.

The thing is that Rafale would never have won the Dutch competition, for the very simple reason that France was not willed or even able to ofer what US does.

"SeQuBu)
ROTFLMAO You just made my day Tampax".

Me too as usual you speak without knowing what you're saying but there is no surprise there.

Out of 800 points Rafale finished 2 points behind JSF.

Dutch fighters competition results: F-35 : 697/800 Rafale : 695/800 Eurofighter : 585/800.


"SeQuBu)
The thing is that Rafale would never have won the Dutch competition, for the very simple reason that France was not willed or even able to ofer what US does".

MORON. Not only France was ABLE to do better but also CHEAPER, it was true then it is even truer today.

Now, zip it and go do your home work before posting, you're only a foaking nuisance for those looking for proper informations.


"NintendoGamer76)
F-35's future is much brighter than Rafales, that is certain".

Rafale cost is computed over 294 aircrafts needed in French service, our industry is safe and we're not lacking the competences needed to pull it off the hat without screwing the design and breaking everyone's banks as does the US industrials.

Rafale is way MORE performant, its IR systems are a full ten years more advanced come 2015 it will eat F-35 for breakfast in A2A.

For the time being F-35 is not even technicaly sorted yet, its flight testing not completed, its cost keep increasing (already 38% unit cost since 2001) and its capabilties by tranches decreasing (add more cost for upgrades later).

France is FAR better off being out of F-35, now look at the "partners" bailing out of the programe, order numbers falling and cry us a troll's river when Rafale sales in the export, you already started.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxxBxvOGXm0

Same advise as the other troll above, with a free video for your efforts, BOYZ.

. Defense

Jobim reaffirms preference for Rafale fighter jets from France in competition FAB
Posted on 05/10/2009 at 22h25m
Reuters / Brazil Online


BUENOS AIRES - Brazil said on Monday that he is more inclined to the French company Dassault than the Swiss Saab and Boeing in contention for a contract for the purchase of fighter planes due to availability of unrestricted transfer of technology.

During a visit to Buenos Aires, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said the support of the Brazilian government to hunt French Rafale from Dassault, the contract for the delivery of 36 aircraft.

The Rafale is competing with the Saab Gripen NG and the F-18 Super Hornet from Boeing.

- The basic issue for the final decision is the national capacity. Brazil can not be bought weapons, Brazil wants to develop technologies - Jobim said during a news conference in the Argentine capital.

- The president (of France, Nicolas) Sarkozy said he would have an unrestricted transfer of technology, (while) the statement made by the United States is that would allow Boeing to do technology transfer needed - added.

Jobim said the selection process must go further analysis by technical and operational without undue delay and in another instance of the Government for final decision on the aircraft which will serve to modernize the fleet of Air Force (FAB).

The minister indicated that the previous U.S. technology transfer "were not good."

- It is clear that the commitment to technology transfer has to be absolutely necessary and not one who has to decide which is the technology we are and not another country.


On 7 September, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has indicated that the government has more sympathy in buying planes from France, although the competition had not yet been finalized. The government argued that Dassault has promised to transfer the technology full of equipment. After that, Boeing also said it would do the same, but gave no assurances that the transfer would take place without reservation. Already Saab said it would sell the equipment at half the price of competitors.
http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/mat/2009/10/05/jobim-reafirma-preferencia-pelos-cacas-rafale-da-franca-em-concorrencia-da-fab-767928786.asp#
Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html

French whining like cvnts because nobody bought their farfalle.....whats new!

I Hail The Flag

Turkey is the cavemen of Europe aerospaciale, you're the green monkey of it.

Thunder Supports Rafale
http://rafale.freeforums.org
http://rafale.freeforums.org/rafale-vs-f-16-aerodynamics-compared-t69.html