China will increase its science and engineering doctorates to some 200,000 by 2010.

Below are some figures taken from the China Statistical Yearbook 2005 on China’s graduate schools:

Science:

New enrollment: 41,607

Ph. D. 10,083

M. S. 30,984

Total enrollment: 102,769

Ph. D. 28,769

M. S. 73,612

Graduates: 17,540

Ph. D. 4,518

M. S. 13,022

Engineering:

New enrollment: 120,750

Ph. D. 20,271

M. S. 100,479

Total enrollment: 318,063

Ph. D. 69,315

M. S. 248,748

Graduates: 56,074

Ph. D. 8,054

M. S. 48,020

Science & Engineering combined:

New enrollment: 162,357

Ph. D. 30,354

M. S. 131,463

Total enrollment: 420,444

Ph. D. 98,084

M. S. 358,360

Graduates: 73,614

Ph. D. 12,572

M. S. 61,042

Number of science and engineering doctorate holders up to 1985:

Probably less than 2,000.

Number of science and engineering doctorate recipients between 1985 and 2001:

Approximately 51,400

Number of science and engineering doctorate recipients for 2002 and 2003:

Approximately 16,000.

Number of science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2004:

Exactly 12,572

Number of science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2005:

Approximately 15,000

Total number of science and engineering doctorates up to the end of 2005:

Approximately: 95,000

Total number of science and engineering doctorate enrollment at the beginning of 2006:

Approximately 85512

New enrollment of science and engineering doctorate candidates for 2006:

Approximately 35,000

Total enrollment of science and engineering doctorates 2006:

Approximately 120,000

From the above, it could be expected that all of the 120,000 students enrolled in the science and engineering doctorate program will have received their doctorate degrees by the end of 2010. So adding another 120,000 science and engineering doctorate to the number as of the end of 2005, it can be expected that there will be some 220,000 science and engineering doctorates doing R&D to develop high technologies for China’s high tech industries. Of course, this presumes that all the science and engineering doctorates recipients will stay in China. Also it presumes that they will all work for Chinese companies and not for foreign companies operating in China.

Japan: recipients of science and engineering doctorate degrees in 2002:

Science 1,607

Engineering 3,073

Total: 4,680

China’s approximate number of science and engineering doctorate degrees recipients in 2002 was some 8,000. This is already almost doubled that of Japan’s total number of science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2002. If Japan’s total number of science and engineering doctorate recipients did not increase very much between 2002 and 2004, then China’s 12,572 science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2004 was some 2.5 times as many as that of Japan’s in the same year.

Presuming that Japan’s annual production of science and engineering doctorates is around 5,000 for the last 30 years, then the total number of Japan’s science and engineering doctorate degree holders is around 150,000. From this it is clear that China would have surpassed Japan’s total number of science and engineering doctorates before the end of 2010. This means that if China can support its rapidly increasing number of science and engineering doctorate with sufficient funding to do R&D, then China’s high technologies will quickly surpass Japan’s.

Even now, with close to 100,000 science and engineering doctorates employed in China, China’s high tech advancement should be very rapid. I don’t know why China’s technologies are still so backward compared to other countries such as Japan or even S. Korea. I hope the Chinese science and engineering doctorate recipients are of genius level people and their education is of world class. Otherwise, the mere number is meaningless and the hundreds of thousands of science and engineering doctorates will not be able to develop any high techs in any significant degree.

I think the rapidly increasing number of science and engineering doctorate recipients is one heartening sign of China’s bright future. If they can quickly develop the most advanced technologies for China, then China will not need to depend on foreign countries for high tech products. This means China will not need to import any high tech products or license foreign high tech intellectual properties for production in China. This in turn will reduce the need to export cheap labor intensive products based on excessively low values of yuan. Furthermore, with China’s high tech products equaling or even surpassing the quality of foreign high tech products, China could compete with these foreign countries to export high tech products to developing countries in exchange for essential raw materials that China lacks. Since China would be competing with developed countries, the high tech products can be priced at the same high level set by the developed countries. This means China can raise its RMB to the full PPP value and eliminate the insidious export subsidy in terms of low RMB value.

Since China has a bright prospect of high tech advancement in the coming years, the CCP should immediately stop the sell out of Chinese companies to foreigners. It was explained by Chinese officials that Chinese banks are not being sold because China needs the money but because Chinese banks are too backward and needs foreign technologies and management skills. But since the number of Chinese science and engineering doctorates are increasing so fast, there should be no question that there will soon be more than enough scientists and engineers of the highest caliber to develop the most advanced technologies needed by China’s banks. Therefore, the CCP government should immediately stop selling out Chinese banks because the reason they gave is no longer valid.

By the same token, the CCP government should also stop selling out any of China’s vital economic assets such as telecommunication companies, railroads, machine manufacturing companies, etc. The reason for opening up and forming joint ventures with foreign companies is for getting foreign technologies. But since China will soon catch up with advanced countries such as Japan in technological development, it is no longer necessary to depend on foreign countries to give China high technologies. Therefore, the CCP government should immediately stop selling out all Chinese economic assets. This means the CCP must immediately ban all FDI and withdraw from the evil WTO which is nothing but a dog collar around China’s economic neck and a symbol of China’s shameful backwardness.

America’s total number of doctorates is some 1.2 million. In 2003, the number of doctorate recipients was some 40,000. The number of science and engineering doctorate recipients was just less than 20,000 or almost half of the total. This probably means that half of the 1.2 million doctorates in America are in science and engineering or some 600,000. At the current rate of exponential growth in new doctorate enrollments, it is more than likely that China will see close to 40,000 science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2010. And with continuing increases, China will probably produce at least some 250,000 science and engineering doctorates between 2011 and 2015 inclusive. This will put the total number of Chinese science and engineering doctorates at more than 450,000 by the end of 2015. Compared to America’s 600,000, this is some 75%. So presuming America can continue to maintain its number of science and engineering doctorates at some 600,000, China will be able to come close to America’s level of technological advancements by 2015.

And if China continues to increase the rate of production of science and engineering doctorates to reach some 100,000 a year or more by 2020, then at which time China’s total number of science and engineering doctorates will be close to 1 million to exceed America’s by a comfortable margin. And beyond 2020, China’s total number of science and engineering doctorates will just keep increasing until it ultimately peaks at some 3 million or more. Therefore, China will be able to advance its high techs much more rapidly than America and any other countries in the world. This will assure China of a very wide lead in world technological advancement.

But the Chinese government must now stop selling out Chinese assets and ban FDI so that foreign companies cannot invade China’s domestic market and take the best of the Chinese science and engineering doctorates. Otherwise, all the investment in nurturing the large number of science and engineering doctorates will be wasted and only the foreigners will benefit. And Chinese people will end up slaving for foreigners in a way that the patriotic Chinese have sacrificed by the tens of millions in the last century to prevent.

I was very heartened when the CCP announced its intention of relying on domestic independent innovation to advance China’s technologies and develop China’s internal economy in the next 5-year plan. But lately I’ve been seeing the old corruption creeping back of relying on foreign technologies and selling out more of China’s economy. These traitorous sell outs are couched in terms of “opening up” and “internationalization” and “using foreign technologies”. These are all corrupt and dishonorable schemes to sell out China and keep China backward and dependent on foreigners. All honorable Chinese must condemn these traitorous schemes. The patriotic Chinese must realize that the days of technological backwardness will soon be over for China as the number of science and engineering doctorates is increasing rapidly to overtake Japan in a few years and America is 10 to 15 years. Already, China’s is third in the development of space technologies and supercomputers. Chinese technologies in consumer electronics are also advancing very fast with the Chinese domestic companies now able to make Pentium 3 equivalent chips, core router, OLED (Organic Light Emitting Display), etc. With more world class scientists and engineering coming on stream by the hundreds of thousands in the coming years, China will surely quickly draw even and ultimately overtake the technological advancement in the world.

Therefore, this is the time for the Chinese people to regain confidence in themselves as they look forward to lead the world in all fields of technologies and become the most advanced country in the world. They must value their own assets and guard them jealously. As China’s huge population becomes much more productive on the back of China’s rapid technological advancement, they will be able to develop China’s internal economy rapidly with the concentrated effort on the urbanization of the farmers. I’ve said repeatedly that China needs 2 things to give its people the highest standard of living in the world - technologies and raw materials. China’s superior technologies is within sight. And with superior technologies, China will be able to replace raw materials it lacks with domestic replacements such as hydrogen for oil. And with superior technologies China could sell high tech products to developing countries in exchange for raw materials. Therefore, China can look forward with great confidence that it can indeed give its people the highest standard of living in the world.

But there is still one great danger for China. The only way that China can be kept poor is for the foreigners to buy up all of China’s economic assets now before China has become fully developed. And this is what the foreigners are now doing. They are buying China’s auto companies, banks, railroads, insurance companies, and the list goes on to cover all of China’s economy. If Chinese people cannot stop this traitorous sell-out, then their future will be sold out long before they can advance even a little bit above their current poverty stricken way of life.

Again, China’s future as the most advanced country is assured given the great optimism for a rapidly expanding number of world class scientists and engineers. But unless the Chinese people can safeguard their economy and prevent its sell-out by traitorous government officials, then their bright future will be sold-out in a few years. Even now half of China’s car market is gone. And soon at least 20% of China’s banks will be sold together with much of China’s railroads and infrastructures such as postal and telecommunication systems. And with the continued emphasis on “opening up” pressured by the evil WTO, more of China’s banks and overall economy will be fully “open” to sell-out until nothing is left to the Chinese people. China is very much at the crossroad. Whether it can take the highroad and advance to the highest standard in the world depends on whether the Chinese people can compel the CCP government to implement the spirit of independent innovation and develop China’s internal economy.

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Even now, with close to 100,000 science and engineering doctorates employed in China, China’s high tech advancement should be very rapid. I don’t know why China’s technologies are still so backward compared to other countries such as Japan or even S. Korea. I hope the Chinese science and engineering doctorate recipients are of genius level people and their education is of world class.

China is actually a leader in select fields such as genetics, stem-cell research, telecommunications and nuclear physics.  The problem, of course, is that too many Chinese are working for firms like Airbus or Microsoft; this precious labour ends up fuelling the foreign patent licensing (theft?) scheme instead of directly advancing China's scientific foundation. 

To stop this, China must amalgamate its redundant SOE's, given them a one-time cash infusion to clear their debts, give them a new mandate to build, for example, a supersonic civilian airliner and find a way to STOP the flow of workers to Airbus in China and towards this new SOE that will compete against Airbus and Boeing.

To stop this, China must amalgamate its redundant SOE's, given them a one-time cash infusion to clear their debts, give them a new mandate to build, for example, a supersonic civilian airliner and find a way to STOP the flow of workers to Airbus in China and towards this new SOE that will compete against Airbus and Boeing.

This is a good plan.  Another policy to help this along is to increase the value of the yuan.  The reason why so many Chinese scientists and engineers are working for foreingers either inside or outside China is because of the much higher level of pays.  And the higher level of pay is due to the higher value of foreign currencies either in euros or dollars.  Therefore, as long as the RMB is 5 times lower than its full PPP value, the Chinese scientists and engineers will be forced by economic reasons to work for foreigners.  And the fact that the CCP government is stupidly and traitorously forcing the Chinese people to learn English and encouraging them to work for foreigners as high class and high prestige jobs also make it almost inevitable for the best Chinese scientists and engineers to work for foreigners.

Another reason why Chinese technologies "seem" to be backward is that many of the best scientists and engineers are working on secret military projects and the space projects.  Chinese scientists and engineers have succeeded in developing high tech projects such as Shenzhou series of manned spaceships.  Also China has developed the advanced fighters such as J-10 and is developing even more advanced new fighters such as J-11, J-12, and other new types.  Also such things as jet engines and phased array radars are being developed in terms of newer and superior versions. 

So this may be like the old Russians which put all their best scientists and engineers into military development with little to show for the consumer products such as cars and TV.  I hope this will change as the number of scientists and engineers doubles in the coming 5 years.  These new scientists and engineers will be put to do more civilian consumer products such as cars and fuel cells and all types of consumer electronics, etc. 

So if the vastly increasing number of new scientists and engineers are properly used, China's future is extremely bright.  But it will need the Chinese people to realize the great value of their economic assets now and protect them properly before they are all sold out which will doom them forever to the role of cheap labor slaves for the foreign owners of Chinese economy.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_47/b3960108.htm#

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As a strategy to counter the recruitment by foreigners of highly qualified Chinese workers in China, would it be effective if the Chinese government were to use punitive taxation against those that renege against transfering technologies to China?  For example, slap an extra 20% income tax on workers that work for Airbus or Microsoft or HSBC, while simultaneously giving tax breaks to Chinese companies?

As a strategy to counter the recruitment by foreigners of highly qualified Chinese workers in China, would it be effective if the Chinese government were to use punitive taxation against those that renege against transfering technologies to China?  For example, slap an extra 20% income tax on workers that work for Airbus or Microsoft or HSBC, while simultaneously giving tax breaks to Chinese companies?

The best strategy to counter foreign hiring of Chinese scientists and engineers is to expand China's own high tech industries.  At the same time the RMB should be raised so that the incomes of the Chinese scientists and engineers will be the same as those who went to the US or work for the multinationals in China.  Currently multinationals can afford to pay Chinese scientists and engineers more than the Chinese companies because the dollar is so much more valuable against the yuan.  But once the two currencies have reached the same PPP level, then the foreigners will lose their advanage and would become uncompetitive agianst the Chiense companies.

For example, an American company can pay $100,000 to a first rate Chinese scientist or engineer in America or in China.  This would be some 800,000 yuans.  There are few Chinese companies that can pay that kind of wages to their scientists and engineers.  But if the yuan is increased to 1.5 yuans to the dollar, then the same $100,000 would be worth only 150,000 yuans.  I think some Chinese companies are already paying that much to their scientists and engineers.  And the Chinese scientists and engineers will have no incentives to go work for foreign companies.  And if the foreigners want to pay Chinese scientists and engineers some 800,000 yuans, then they have to pay them the equivalent of $500,000 or more.  Even if America few scientists and engineers are getting that kind of salaries.

If there are no contracts for tech transfer (just the usual treacherous guanxi) this could easily violate WTO rules.

This is why China must get out of the evil WTO.

The coming water war shall be a fiasco of epic proportions, and incredibly is being accelerated by Chinese policy.

This is why China must concentrate on its own internal development instead of wasting its resources subsidizing foreign trade.

 Educated Chinese would much rather exit for or remain in the west than live where the population density is roughly, and I mean ROUGHLY 4.4 times the US population density, yet the land areas are about the same.

Everything else being equal I'd prefer to live in China.  The weather of America can only be described as filthy.  There just isn't any place on earth to compare to China's sourth-east.  It isn't without reason that there is the saying "上有天堂, 下有苏杭."

China will be nothing but place to recruit workers who have something to contribute to the west.

If there are so many things that Chinese can contribute to the west, then these same Chinese also have much to contribute to the development of China itself.  Therefore, all China needs to develop rapidly to give the Chinese people a high standard of living is the implementation of a good set of policies such as my 12-guidelines.

America's low population density is perhaps America's greatest asset, among other things like rule of law, and the reason America will always have enough scientists from all over the world happily on the payroll.

The most important reasons for America's power are the large number of scientists and engineers of the highest caliber.  But America is also degraded by racism which suppresses the full contribution of the blacks and Hispanics who constitute some 30% of the American population.  But the trend of foreign genius level people going to America to get education and stay on after graduation is changing.  The number of foreign students going to America has not increased for several years.  The number of foreign students going back to their own countries after graduation is also increasing.  This is due to the increasing standard of higher education in developing countries especially in China and India.  And many Chinese and Indians are returning due to increased opportunities in their own countries.

And China will have the potential to produce millions of genius level scientists and engineers or several times more than the US to surpass the Americans and the Japanese and the Koreans combined by several times.  Therefore, the hopes of China giving its people the highest standard of living is very bright.  But ironically, the worst enemies of the Chinese are the stupid CCP leadership who by squandering the resources of China to subsidize foreign trade is dooming the development of China.  And by pursuing "opening up" and "relying on foreign technologies" are turning China into a human dog to serve the foreigners forever. 

In an article in peopledaily.com.cn, China had announced that it will train some 7 million senior skilled workers during the 11th 5-year plan covering 2006 o 2010.  This sounds very impressive and I'm sure it will help to increase the technological level of China overall.  But as I've said many times what China needs more than anything else if 1 million science and engineeering doctorates.  Mere skilled technicians cannot develop advanced technologies.  They can only service or maintain them but not create them form concepts.  Therefore, it is not as urgent for China to trains tens of millions of skilled technicians as to educate just 1 million genius level science and engineering doctorates. 

The cost of educating just 1 million science and engineering doctorates is probably no more than to train 5 or 6 million skilled technicians.  But the benefit of just 1 million genius level science and engineering doctorates will be much more than tens of millions of skilled technicians.  Therefore, while it is good for China to train tens of millions of skilled technicians, yet it is even more critically urgent for it to implement an intensive program to seek out the geniuses at the elementary and highschool level and bring them into a speical intensive program all the way to the doctorate level.  Only with 1 million or more genius level science and engineering doctorates can Chinese technologies surpass the world and make China the most powerful and the Chinese people the richest in the world.