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Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009 at 1:07 AM

Eric  (Login Nighthawk00)
Eagle Squadron(US)

So, how much longer do you think the Iranian regime will hold out? How will the revolution take place?

Discuss.

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When I was young I used to pray for a bike, then I realized that God doesn't work that way, so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness.

 
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The Immortal soul
(Login rightoussoul)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 1:39 AM 

Eric, there will never be a revolution in Iran. We dont need more murderous thugs to take over again. I say within 10-20 years Iran will become more democratic and free then what it is currently. But Iran will never be a western democracy or as liberal as the west the majority of Iranians simply don't want this.

There will be gradual changes from within just as we have seen within the last 30 years. Once the old guard (should read thugs) die a new generation of politicians who are builders and not destroyers will come to power (revolutionaries are there to destroy not to build)


    
This message has been edited by rightoussoul on Nov 12, 2009 1:42 AM


 
 

M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 3:51 AM 

No revolution (hopefully/most likely). Its unwanted.

If undisturbed by outside forces and things go well, then major reform possible in about 15 to 25 years, give or take 8 minutes.


 
 

(Login TryphonTournesol)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 5:03 AM 

The events of the past 12 years have shown that the Beard regime is not susceptible to reform. Precipitous overthrow is the only answer and the sooner this is done, the less costly will it be to the country in the long run.

When people take to the streets and shout things like "Khamenei is a murderer and his rule has expired", I don't believe they are asking for gradual reform over a period of 15-25 years.

 
 

M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 5:33 AM 

TT,

My friend, I live in Iran, and I despise the regime (incase you were wondering). I also interact alot on the social level. Believe me when I say, a huge majority from what it seems (myself included), realise that revolution would be very bloody, throw as back 50 years, make us susceptible to foreign interference ala 1953, and generally a personal price most do not seem to be willing to pay.

This doesnt mean that dissatisfaction is not extremely high. However reform, even gradual is IMHO the best course for us. While there are vile people in this regime, alot of them are smart too, and most likely realize that if they wish to cling on to the power they enjoy without a sudden violent downfall oneday, they will have to reform over time, much like China which is now communist only in name though of course still far from perfect.

Also one must honestly consider, in the event of a revolution, who, at this point in time do we have as a suitable replacement? Any and all the opposition, especially the LA variety with their ridiculous TV shows, are so disorganized and often undemorcratic in their behaviour while using Democracy simply as a slogan, and pretending to care about Iranians in Iran while advocating an Iraq style war by America to liberate us, since they arent the ones who have to worry about their families being plunged into anarchy in the aftermath and getting killed by bombings and what not.

Its hard to say it, but at this point in time we have no credible alternative to the IRI who can handle the responsibilities of running a nation with any experience, or selflessness, and anarchy is not IMO a better alternative.

BTW, plkease read the short discussion here by some former members on this topic you will see what I mean and more, and Im sure you will find it very interesting (ignore the title, its not simply about monarchy at all, but this very topic):

http://www.network54.com/Forum/392282/thread/1111481568/last-1126795003/Monarchy%27s+Rebuttal

regards,

 


 
 

(Login Free_Nation)
Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 7:42 AM 

aye eric, you dissapoint me, you want a revolution against ayatollahs?

Ayatollahs rule iran with an iron fist and the fist is powered by islam which the persians are, to revolt against the pious ayatollahs is to revolt against islam for the majority of islam- so they compromised with their situation and decided to move on with their lives.

the remaining intellectuals will either seek refuge in the west or be too scared to speak against the ayatollahs, rather they will speak for the ayatollahs so that their safety is preserved.

iran was a despotic regime and will remain one.


[linked image]

colours of Kaziranga

 
 

Eric
(Login Nighthawk00)
Eagle Squadron(US)

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 5:38 PM 

I think nepotist is better suited to describe the situation.

[linked image]

When I was young I used to pray for a bike, then I realized that God doesn't work that way, so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness.

 
 

Ali's knife victim.
(Login Mash-Qasem)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 9:05 PM 

lawyers of the greeen movement have already set up and written a new democratic constitution open to discussion and changes with contributions from the internet community. in persian:


http://greenlawyers.wordpress.com/2009/11/08/constitution-1/

as pdf:

http://greenlawyers.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/irans-new-constitution_draft-for-comments.pdf

equality between the sexes, secularism, paying respect to the UN human rights charter and other international human rights conventions, no discrimination based on religious creed, sex, ethnic background or whatsoever, constitutionalism and the rule of law, separation between the three powers and abolition of any kind of "leaderism", more individual rights and freedoms, social security and free healthcare, absolute preservation of the independence of iran form the bulk of this constitution.

no democratic movement has used the modern tools of communication as excessively as the iranian democratic movement. in my opinion, a free and democratic iran will be achieved in less than ten years. i don´t know, if by revolution and i really hope not, but social protests and peaceful rallies as at the jerusalem day or the 4th november will be part of the transition.

islamic republic gratefully has no public credity left anymore.


---------------------------------------------
brother abdullah for iranian group leader.


    
This message has been edited by Mash-Qasem on Nov 12, 2009 9:08 PM


 
 

Ali's knife victim.
(Login Mash-Qasem)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 12 2009, 9:16 PM 

other examples of creative but effective protest:

http://observers.france24.com/en/content/20091110-revolt-banknotes-iran-mosavi-ahmadinejad-green-revolution

The revolt of the banknotes

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When they're not out on the streets demonstrating, anti-government activists spend their time finding other ways to inconvenience the authorities. Their most recent offensive involves banknotes and green pens.

The notes are everywhere

Alireza is an artist and journalist in Tehran.

Mirhossein Mousavi asked young people to use their imagination. And that's what they've done. These banknotes, marked with images and slogans, are everywhere. I have some myself. The central bank tried to take them out of circulation, but there are so many, they had to give up on the idea. For the young people it's a way of saying We're here. The green movement is still going on.'"

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"Khamenei the dictator, Ahmadinejad the puppet."

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"In this country only the government has freedom of speech. Don't believe anything you hear."

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The word Republic' is replaced by dictator', leaving 'The Central Bank of the Islamic Dictatorship of Iran'.

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"A note without slogan goes against freedom."

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"Down with Khamenei; he's a murderer and an illegitimate leader; we Iranians didn't vote for a monkey; green will overcome."

[linked image]

V for victory stamps mark many notes.

[linked image]

Neda is printed on the note bottom left.


---------------------------------------------
brother abdullah for iranian group leader.


    
This message has been edited by Mash-Qasem on Nov 12, 2009 9:18 PM


 
 
Ali's knife victim.
(Login 187homocide)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 1:28 AM 

very long time the opposition are divided in to various ideologys that contradict each other and seem to hate each other more then the reieme at times everything from secular state to liberal islamic regieme to communist to mko scum to god knows what

 
 

(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 2:06 AM 

Don't you peope realize that in 15-25 years Iran will look like Afghanistan if the mullahs stay in power that long? It'll be a mess.

These people have no idea what they're talking about. Trust me, Iranians want a revolution, they sure as hell know that they can't progress in anyways as long as this government's in power.... A government who doesn't give a sh1t about Iran.

It'll catch up to these tehrani liberals soon.

This is exactly how the 1979 rev started.

Btw, all revolutions come with a price but it needs to be done.

------------------------------------
"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 
Ali's knife victim.
(Login PERSPOLIS)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 2:11 AM 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skCNAIRn9Uw

------------------------------------------
The Enemy is Confused.
Iran's Traditional External Enemies WASPS JUHUDS and ARABS are killing Each Other.
MKO vs Hbola is Mazhab Aleyhe Mazhab thesis
Communism=JUHUD=Bolshevik=Aksariyati=Bahai=
SAVAKI=Zionism=WASPS PLOTS=Saeed Emami =Ahmadinejad = Zarghami = Rahmati= Dehnamaki
F16I a poor answer to Shafagh
China is Behind Iran with the VETO power. Don't waste our time by mentioning UN sanctions.
History is a lousy teacher.
The Wealth of a Nation is its production and not the amount gold it has, Adam Smith 1776
Moses Jesus and Mohamad didn't have Father , they made stories about their Fathers !!!!
During the last 2500 years Iran has been ruled by Iranians for only 700 years.
China has Send US forces for Wild Goose Chase, in PG and Tora Bora, while it takes over Taiwan , and Korea will Nuke Japan.
The Most Unholiest Alliance >>>>>British Chinease Pact<<<. <br> Iran (China (UK)) is Encircling Middle East , Caribean and Panama Canal.
------------------------------------------

 
 

Viper
(Login Viper65)
Member

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 3:13 AM 

Dedicated to my Hamshahri

[linked image]

There is a clear desire by some international players to dictate their will to everyone without adhering to international law," Putin said. "International law has been replaced by political reasons.In our opinion it is nothing different from diktat, nothing different from imperialism," he added.

 
 

(Login Free_Nation)
Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 5:30 AM 

"Khamenei the dictator, Ahmadinejad the puppet."

Rightly said, ahmednijad is dispensable, the ayatollahs are not.


[linked image]

colours of Kaziranga

 
 

(Login Prime_evil)
Europa

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 1:10 PM 

My friend, I live in Iran,....

Of course you do......

If remember correctly, this site is banned in Iran, of course a long with such tools of the evil Imperialist AmeriKKa and Great Satan as Facebook, Orkut, youtube, Myspace, CNN, etc.

 
 

M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 2:12 PM 

The Admins of this site know me and where I live, my little 16 year old icelandic attention whore. Iran has several ISPs, some of which block N54, others dont. So you can believe I'm on Mars if you wish, it wont change facts.

 Now that you have been educated on the matter, leave the discussion here to us grown ups, and go blow a whale Pika. LOL

happy.gif


 
 
fariborz
(Login fariborz_57)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 4:36 PM 

It is not possible IMO to say with any certainty how long it will take for major changes to take place. I would say at least 5 years possibly even more than 10. As far as nature of the change, like just about everyone else I hope it wont be a revolutionn but changes without force culminating in a new secular constitution PLUS ensuring that people actually abide by it.

 
 

M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 4:39 PM 

^ Amen to that bro. Though 5 years seems too fast/unlikely. Other than that, amen.


    
This message has been edited by Mehran. on Nov 13, 2009 4:45 PM


 
 
fariborz
(Login fariborz_57)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 5:05 PM 

^

Well it depends on some unknown factors. Most important in my mind is how fast can Sepah take over the economy and fook it up to the point of hyper inflation. All indications are that Sepah is moving in the direction of turning Iran into a copy of PAkistan, resulting in the first step constructing a nuclear weapon. At the same time all other social and human developement indicies will suffer as they steal more and more and spend more on more on military. Asa comparison Pakistan does not even have enough primary schools but it has the bomb.

2nd factor is that the first revolution happened approximately 10 years after students in universities started their movement, right now that movement is just starting.

3rd factor is the response to opposition, this time it will be different, expect to see death and kidnapping squads operating under new intelligence and security services which Sepah is trying to set up and take over the internal security. Imagine Argentina and Chile. I reckon we are about midlife equivalent of those types of regimes.

Right now Khamenai is becomeing more and more irrelavent and turning into just the front for Sepah. I reckon he has about 5-10 years of useful life as a tool left in him and after his passing some other fooker will be chosen with Sepah's blessing but it will be much more apparent, imagine that old guy after Bregenov (SP), I think he was called Andrpov.


 
 

Viper
(Login Viper65)
Member

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 6:51 PM 

Mehran jan,I think you missed the pic I posted for you above,How the hell are you anyway man?

 
 


(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 8:21 PM 

Oh my God.. I actually did miss it.

Sharmandatim dash Kuroush.  happy.gif chetori hamshahri e aziz? Where and how have you been Bro?

Did you get my response to your e-mail long ago, coz I didnt hear back?

I hope your family is doing excellent and yourself as well. Delemun kheyli kheyli barat tang shode.

Tazegia bad az ye saal bargashtam be in site, mibinam, ye seri ziyadi az hamvatanane azize daraje yekemun raftan! Albate az daraje yeka chandtashun khoda ro shokr hanuz hasatan mesle Agha Fariborz, Kia, Babak, Parsian, PR, TT.

Vali hamantor ke mibini, mesle saabegh nist sholooghi/garmi in "otaghemun".

Che khabar az shoma, va khanevaade? salam mana be hame beresun.

Akse rasti hats mizanam az ostanemune, are? tablo moghavie ra natunestam bekhunam yekam mahve..Kad, ya Ko ye chizi lol.

Lotfi kon ye e-mail, hatta khaali, bezan be addressi ke gozashtam alaan to login'am, ke address email f'eli fa'aale shoma ro dashte basham. Kheyli khoshalam kardi azize baradar.

Ghorbane you,

M

 



    
This message has been edited by Mehran. on Nov 13, 2009 8:25 PM
This message has been edited by Mehran. on Nov 13, 2009 8:24 PM


 
 

Ali's knife victim.
(Login Persian_revenge)
EXPERT POSTER

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 8:53 PM 

For those who don't believe in a revolution and those do such as Fightclub, I think it would be unwise to speak on behalf of the people. We have reached a crucial point in our history a real stalemate internally and externally.

The moderates have learned that the system should be shaken and they intend to take full credit for that in exchange for power if it works. However, they might end up bringing down the establishment if they push it too far or if the conservatives refuse to compromise. It is not about you and me and our will. It is about power and what party is better equipped to take on the other one.

Having said that, the so-called moderates know that in order to come into power they need the people and the people actually might end up benefiting from this transition not because they care about the people but because they need the people.

It is very early to say what is going to happen but one thing is certain: things are moving and people are voicing their grievances but whether they are being manipulated by likes of Mousavis remains unclear.

I personally don't trust the moderates. They might be getting some support from the West in doing what they are doing in exchange for promises to difuse the current impasse.

For now, I would say: stay tuned and don't jump to conclusion. Iran is young, complex and extremely umpredictable. Very few countries can errupt the way Iran does. Well... maybe the French.

-------------------------------------------



    
This message has been edited by Persian_revenge on Nov 13, 2009 8:59 PM


 
 

Viper
(Login Viper65)
Member

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 9:09 PM 

Mehran,a month ago I was passing through Nafch when I took that picture.I thought you would recognize the pic despite its quality,LOL
I'm emailing you right now,nice to hear from you,bro.

 
 

Eric
(Login Nighthawk00)
Eagle Squadron(US)

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 9:10 PM 

This thread is unexpectedly good so far, keep it up.

[linked image]

When I was young I used to pray for a bike, then I realized that God doesn't work that way, so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness.

 
 


(Login Persian_revenge)
EXPERT POSTER

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 9:20 PM 

Did you guys read about Sepah buying National Telephone Company? That is another move. You can actually view the cheque on BBC Persian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/business/2009/11/091109_ka_irantelecom_sepah.shtml

It is also a very strategic move. They can cripple the country when faced with internal turmoil hampering spread of information.  

 



-------------------------------------------

 
 

(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 13 2009, 9:47 PM 

Just look at Iran now, it's an exact copy of 1979 in terms of massive protests and anti-government/mullah movements.

1979 rev took 9 months. The protests stopped and then started again, just like now..... It's only gonna get worse.


------------------------------------
"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 

(Login TryphonTournesol)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 16 2009, 1:36 AM 

Green Movement Spreading Despite Crackdown

Behzad Yaghmaian | | 13 November 2009

The presidential election of June 12, which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared to have won, gave birth to a grassroots movement that has been evolving politically, embracing broader segments of the population, discovering new methods of struggle, and refusing to die despite widespread government violence.

It has bewildered the conservatives, surpassed the political limits of the reformists, and become a wildcard with a potential to change Iran in profound ways.
The Green Movement began when millions of people poured into the streets in the belief that Ahmadinejad had rigged the election. The repression that followed forced the movement to retreat underground, but it stayed alive. It sought different arenas in which to pursue its goals and spread deeper into society. Government violence succeeded in reducing the number of street protesters and dispersed the movement. We no longer see millions protesting in unison. The movement has, however, become more difficult to control.

What was once a movement of young and modernised middle-class youth has become truly multi-generational. It includes the modern and the traditional, the Muslim, and the secular, the old and the very young. The Green Movement is everywhere. It appears like a spectre, becomes invisible, and returns. It came out on Quds (Jerusalem) Day on September 19, intended to mark solidarity with the Palestinians, and surfaced in universities across the country on the first day of term on September 28. It reappeared again on the 30 anniversary of the takeover of the United States embassy on November 4.

University students protested across the country. Old and young, traditional women covered head to toe in black, and youth clad in loud and funky outfits came out in defiance of strict orders by the security forces. And this time, Iranian children joined their parents and older siblings. They turned their schools into places of protest.

In a middle school in Tehran, students defied their principals and refused to chant against America. They were saying Marg bar Amrica (Death to America) from the loudspeakers, but the students were chanting Marg bar Dicatator (Death to the dictator), said a jubilant 13-year old student. The principal had asked students to bring balloons with Death to America written on them. The students instead came with green balloons that said Death to the Dictator, she said.

In a high school in Karaj, students refused to take part in the flag-burning ritual. Preparing for the anniversary celebration, the principal had prepared balloons in red, green, and white, the colours of the Iranian flag. Students burst the red and white balloons. Everyone was holding a green balloon and the principal was very angry, a student reported.

The spread of the Green Movement to middle and high schools reveals the pervasiveness of the opposition to the government. It shows the beginning of what could become the largest and most inclusive political and cultural movement in Irans recent history. Cracking down on middle and high school students will be exceptionally difficult. Sending troops and militias to middle schools will be explosive, a red line that even the Islamic Republic cannot cross.

The Green Movement that began with Where is my Vote as its central slogan has become the umbrella for brilliant, spontaneous, and horizontally organised collective action that is proving increasingly difficult to defuse. Less than five months after its birth, the Green Movement has transcended its original objective of restoring peoples stolen votes, to openly questioning the cornerstone of the Islamic Republic, the absolute power of the supreme religious leader. Taboos are broken.

Down with the Dictator has become the central cry of the protesters in Tehran, Shiraz, Karaj, Qom, Isfahan, Tabriz, and other cities across Iran. Down with the Dictator is also written in large letters on walls and storefronts in poor and rich neighbourhoods of the capital. Everyone knows the dictator is [Supreme Leader]Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei, a resident of Tehran said. The government keeps painting over the slogans, but finding freshly written ones on the same spot or near to it the next day.

The development of the Green Movement has worried many, including some reformists.

The Green Movement has broken its shell. It is now a non-violent movement with revolutionary demands and ideals.

It has bypassed the limited political demands of Mir Hussein Mousavi, and other reformist leaders. Mousavi, the original inspiration behind the Green Movement, has been pressing his supporters to remain within the confines of the constitution of the Islamic Republic.

We demand the unconditional enactment of the constitution and the return of the Islamic Republic to its original ethical foundations. We demand an Islamic Republic, not a word more, and not a word less, said Mousavi in a recent public statement.

Meanwhile, the protesters were calling for the creation of an Iranian Republic to replace the Islamic Republic. For the first time in the past 30 years, the protesters are also calling for a secularisation of the state.

The radicalisation of the Green Movement found a special voice during the recent anniversary celebration of the US embassy takeover in schools across the country. Defying the authorities in a Tehran high school, hundreds of students marched through the building during their break, singing My High School Friend, a popular protest song, and a rallying cry among anti-government Iranians.

This time, however, the students had changed the lyrics. They had replaced the lyrics Who can solve this problem except for you and I with Who can topple this government except for you and I. The genie is out of the bottle.

The generation that toppled the government of the Shah in 1979 was ideological. Moved by anger and hatred, it sought revenge. The young participants in the Green Movement are, however, creating a non-violent movement for social change. They are joyous, and guided by the longing for a better and more open life. Theirs is a movement for joy.

They fight not for isolation from the rest of the world, but inclusion and coexistence. And, once again, Iranian children are setting an example. The 12-year old daughter of a manual labourer challenged a teacher who asked her to step on an American flag before entering the classroom.

People of another country love this flag. Why should I disrespect them? she told her teacher. She and others are the face of a new Iran in the making.

Behzad Yaghmaian, a professor of political economy at Ramapo College of New Jersey. He is the author of Social Change in Iran: An Eyewitness Account of Dissent, Defiance, and New Movements for Rights; and Embracing the Infidel: Stories of Muslim Migrants on the Journey West. He can be reached at behzad.yaghmaian@gmail.com.

http://www.mianeh.net/en/articles/?aid=0228

 
 

AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate(India)

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 16 2009, 5:37 AM 


Irrespective of the Green movement popularity, there would be no revolution in Iran both for economic and political reasons.

Economically, Iran's fiscal crisis is alarming even for the IRGC.This has played a huge role in the Ahmadinejad governments decision to reduce subsidies across the board (fuel, food, medicines, etc) and the Iranian nuclear negotiators willingness to accept previously rejected compromises (Russian enrichment) in order to avoid further sanctions and their reluctance to follow through on threats to Ahmadinejad's chief opponents.


Politically, The position of the Iranian Government is not safe but they are not absolutely vulnerable like East europeans govts of 1989 either.The access to information plays a crucial role in any modern day revolutions.The Iranian Govt polcies on this score is also in the middle. They are not as open as the Albanians or Hungarians of 1989 nor as closed as China's during 1989 pro-democracy protests.


The situation in Iran is that of a stalemate.The Govt will not do what the chinese have done during the Tiananmen supression of 1989 because it will further alienate the opposition Ayotllah's and politicians within the govt who may be sympathetic to the greens.


This does not necessarily means the Greens have victory in sight.Even if Mousavi marches his protesters and took over govt buildings, the revolutionary gaurds will simply massacre them.The pro-govt troops dont have to kill all millions of the protesters.They will simply kill a few hundred or a thousand and the rest will simply go back to their lives out of fear.


So the situation is stalemate because neither side is ready to go for the kill.Both sides will retire after some rhetoric and some showdown and prepare for further showdowns. Unlike China in 1949 or Eastern Europe in 1989,Iranians would be in for a very long haul.

===========================================
Let Noble Thoughts Come to Us from All Sides- RigVeda

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[linked image]

 
 

Ali's knife victim.
(Login parsian)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 16 2009, 6:24 AM 

It is very difficult to asses the situation in Iran, specially for us out site Iran. I personally do not trust both,the moderates and the Government.what if the whole green movement was preplanned by Iranian government to identify the anti government individuals? what if the green movement was designed by outsider and Iranian people fall victim to their plan to destabilize Iranian Government?
If you think the timing is just right for the west to push Iran to the corner?

 
 

Eric
(Login Nighthawk00)
Eagle Squadron(US)

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 16 2009, 4:20 PM 

In case of a civil war, which side is the army gonna back?

[linked image]

When I was young I used to pray for a bike, then I realized that God doesn't work that way, so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness.

 
 
Ali's knife victim.
(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 16 2009, 5:17 PM 

^^^^^^^^^^^ People for sure. The islamists mainly join the revolutionary guards, the army and other branches consist of normal patriotic folks.

------------------------------------
"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 

Hadi
(Login raghfarm)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 1:33 AM 

It all deopends on when Khmenei dies. He has had cancer for a few years.
The sooner he dies, the sooner the country can get back to stability and cleaning up the filth.

[linked image]

THE WORLD IS A BRIDGE, CROSS IT, BUT BUILD NO HOUSE UPON IT!
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[linked image]
[linked image]
[linked image]

"I visited defense enterprises of Iran and I saw how strongly it advanced in the field of the military hardware on the whole and in missile technology in particular"

Russian Defense Ministry official General Leonid Ivashov



The Majority must resign itself to the consumption of fantasy. Illusions of wealth are sold to the poor, illusions of freedom to the oppressed, dreams of victory to the defeated and power to the week.

Eduardo Galeano


"I am Persian, son of a Persian, an Aryan, having Aryan lineage."


I'm comming for Jew!!

[linked image]

 
 
Ali's knife victim.
(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 2:41 AM 

raghfarm, to tell you the truth man, most Iranians can't wait for all you islamists to die, not just khamanie.

------------------------------------
"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 

Ali's knife victim.
(Login parsian)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 5:43 AM 

@Fightclub wrote:

most Iranians can't wait for all you islamists to die, not just khamanie.


what you said is not true, if you sow the Picture of Green movement there were some islamist against the Iranian regime! Iranian society is very complex and not easy to understand even for some Iranian.

 
 


(Login raghfarm)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 1:44 PM 

LOL Fag club, since when were you an Iranin to know what we want! LOL

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THE WORLD IS A BRIDGE, CROSS IT, BUT BUILD NO HOUSE UPON IT!
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[linked image]
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"I visited defense enterprises of Iran and I saw how strongly it advanced in the field of the military hardware on the whole and in missile technology in particular"

Russian Defense Ministry official General Leonid Ivashov



The Majority must resign itself to the consumption of fantasy. Illusions of wealth are sold to the poor, illusions of freedom to the oppressed, dreams of victory to the defeated and power to the week.

Eduardo Galeano


"I am Persian, son of a Persian, an Aryan, having Aryan lineage."


I'm comming for Jew!!

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Coalde
(Login coalde)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 6:02 PM 

I think it wholly depends upon 1 or 2 action/reaction cycles between the government and the opposition.

The best scenario would be a series of concessions by the government enshrined in a constitution or bill of rights or something, which effectively keeps the game between moderates on both sides. The worst scenario would be a heavy handed response by the government which would help fuel extremist on the reform side, which eventually leads to full scale civil war/revolution and a lot of dead people.

Anyway just my $0.02.



"Now it gets psychological, friends."
Capt. Lt. Henrich Lehmann - Das Boot 1981

 
 

(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 6:09 PM 

"""what you said is not true, if you sow the Picture of Green movement there were some islamist against the Iranian regime!"""
-------------------------------------
Those islamists are fools who think the movement is about mousavi, while it's really about people getting pissed off and not wanting to take the bullsh!t of the islamic regime anymore.

It's exactly like how the liberals of 1979 chanted with the islamists and communists and in the end got screwed by them.

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"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 

(Login fightclub20)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 6:19 PM 

Raghfarm, only a delusional dayoos retard like would put "I am Persian, son of a Persian, an Aryan, having Aryan lineage." to go along with pics of islamist monkeys who absolutely despise Pre-islamic Iranian history, and a palestinian islamic logo together.


I mean look at these monkeys!



[linked image]




GET THE FOOK OUT OF HERE MORON!

------------------------------------
"A drowning man is not troubled by rain" Persian Proverb
[linked image]

"You should not be afraid of the ideology but of the determination and will of the men behind it"

 
 


(Login raghfarm)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 10:34 PM 

LOL, firstly, a Dayoos retard is your mom, get it right fuko...

Secondly, you are too ignorant about us Iranians to even comment on the Iranian history and culture for me to waste my time answering your homo-erotic commenst.... hell, you can't even distinguish between the Hezbollah sign and the Palestinian signs.... Me thinks its the fine yankee education that you must have had. LOL

[linked image]

THE WORLD IS A BRIDGE, CROSS IT, BUT BUILD NO HOUSE UPON IT!
-------------------------------------------

[linked image]
[linked image]
[linked image]

"I visited defense enterprises of Iran and I saw how strongly it advanced in the field of the military hardware on the whole and in missile technology in particular"

Russian Defense Ministry official General Leonid Ivashov



The Majority must resign itself to the consumption of fantasy. Illusions of wealth are sold to the poor, illusions of freedom to the oppressed, dreams of victory to the defeated and power to the week.

Eduardo Galeano


"I am Persian, son of a Persian, an Aryan, having Aryan lineage."


I'm comming for Jew!!

[linked image]

 
 
fariborz
(Login fariborz_57)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 17 2009, 10:54 PM 

@Fightclub & Hadi

The level of insults between you two is escalating. Even though I took part in the thread at beginning myslef, I am locking it for a while till cooler heads prevail.

When unlocked if either of you two issues the slightest warning I will ask another moderator to step in


 
 
Cizerim
(Login Cizerim)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:00 PM 

2nd factor is that the first revolution happened approximately 10 years after students in universities started their movement, right now that movement is just starting.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The first revolution took place in 1979 when there was no internet, cell phones etc... given today's communication standards, don't you think that the students would be able to organize faster? Do you not agree that is what is happening in Iran currently? I hope that the coming revolution in Iran is fostered by the pen as opposed to the sword. I would hate see more people like Neda Soltan get hurt or lose their lives so tragically.

BTW: Can an American citizen with a US passport travel to and in Iran?

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fariborz
(Login fariborz_57)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:05 PM 

^^

That is a good point you raised, yes you are right. They may be able to organize faster this time around.

As far as travelling to and from Iran is concerened, sure they can. They apply for a tourist visa and then they go


 
 

M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:10 PM 

Yes you can Cizerim Pasha. You will be pleasantly surprised too. I've met/seen Americans, British, French, German,, Korean,chinese and Polish tourists there. I also met two young guys who had come alone and met eachother there seperately. One from Germany, one from Holland. They said they were really enjoying it.

 There are online reports by Americans who travelled including one by a Jewish American coloumnist who couldnt believe how hospitable and friendly everyone was to him. At one point he saw a Basij guy in an argument with a magazine stand owner over some magazine or something he found promiscuous, and he had thrown it on the ground, torn and was giving a speech to a small bunch of guys around him who were watching. This btw is not all that common contrary to western images of Iran. Anyways, the guy got a little nervous when he saw the Basij shut up and look in the Americans direction, then walk over to him. He asked him where he was from, the guy said American etc..the Basij guy smiles and shakes his hand and tells him welcome. Then he takes off his red rambo forehead band thing and gives it to the American, and leaves. lol happy.gif

Just dont go taking pics of military bases :P

btw, Turkey doesnt require visas from Iranians who visit, so Im guessing its the same vice-versa. If so, you might find it easier to use your Turkish passport.

regardsm

M


 
 
Cizerim
(Login Cizerim)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:10 PM 

^^How are the American tourists greeted at customs? Can an American drink alcahol in Iran without fear of getting arrested? Sorry for the million questions.

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Cizerim
(Login Cizerim)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:14 PM 

Yes you can Cizerim Pasha. You will be pleasantly surprised too. I've met/seen Americans, British, French, German,, Korean,chinese and Polish tourists there. I also met two young guys who had come alone and met eachother there seperately. One from Germany, one from Holland. They said they were really enjoying it.

There are online reports by Americans who travelled including one by a Jewish American coloumnist who couldnt believe how hospitable and friendly everyone was to him. At one point he saw a Basij guy in an argument with a magazine stand owner over some magazine or something he found promiscuous, and he had thrown it on the ground, torn and was giving a speech to a small bunch of guys around him who were watching. This btw is not all that common contrary to western images of Iran. Anyways, the guy got a little nervous when he saw the Basij shut up and look in the Americans direction, then walk over to him. He asked him where he was from, the guy said American etc..the Basij guy smiles and shakes his hand and tells him welcome. Then he takes off his red rambo forehead band thing and gives it to the American, and leaves. lol happy.gif

Just dont go taking pics of military bases :P

btw, Turkey doesnt require visas from Iranians who visit, so Im guessing its the same vice-versa. If so, you might find it easier to use your Turkish passport.

regardsm

M

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thanks for the great insight Mehran Pasha. I have always wanted to visit Iran. Soon insallah.

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M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:17 PM 

Christians and Jews are legally allowed to drink in the privacy of their homes/church/synagogues. Sh1tload of non Christian and non Jew Iranians drink it anyways in their homes lol. Dont worry, you can drink with us. I'll hook us up. Iranian quality home made wine, or Tuborg beer from Turkey, or even fine western commercial liqour. It can all be found (unoficially of course).


    
This message has been edited by Mehran. on Nov 18, 2009 5:19 PM


 
 
Cizerim
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:20 PM 

Right on! Hahahahahahaah

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Cizerim
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:21 PM 

BTW: How are your backgammon skills? Am I gonna have to teach you?

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M
(Login Mehran.)
honorary Mod

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:24 PM 

Teach me?? :P I will take you down wink.gif Hospitably of course.

 
 
Cizerim
(Login Cizerim)
Moderators

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:27 PM 

Teach me?? :P I will take you down wink.gif Hospitably of course.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

That's what they all say...heheheheheh. Then I end up closing the game board, put it under their arm and send them home...hospitably of course.wink.gif

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(Login Koz4k)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:30 PM 

OHW!!! YOU'VE BEEN SERVED!!!

Backgammon... seriously?




Yes, I understand I'm being a douchebag.


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Cizerim
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 5:40 PM 

Nothing like a good backgammon game with a few ice cold beers, sitting by the ocean side and the evening Mediterranean sea breeze in your hair.

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Ali's knife victim.
(Login Mash-Qasem)
Immortal Iran

Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 7:14 PM 

@cizerim

if you decide to travel to iran one day i say hosgeldin kardes from my behalf happy.gif . in tehran you won´t have problems communicating in turkish with the people because many azaris live in tehran besides azari majority provinces like west and east azarbaijan or zanjan (with cities like tabriz, orumieh and others).

@fightclub

the situation of iran does not resemble to that of 1979. there is not one common enemy who all are united against, in fact this regime still has a large supporter base. in 1979 99% percent were against one man, the shah.

then we have the opposition leadership coming from WITHIN the regime (even if they may be tools for the aim) and we don´t have oil workers going on strike and the green movement is PEACEFUL.

it is extremely diverse and creative but it lacks a coordinated leadership with clear visions and instructions.

people are not looking for a violent and bloody revolution, they want to display their might with peaceful rallies and other forms of protest.

fightclub, you should get more familiar with the iranian reality and stop living in an imaginary dream world...

---------------------------------------------
brother abdullah for iranian group leader.


    
This message has been edited by Mash-Qasem on Nov 18, 2009 7:17 PM
This message has been edited by Mash-Qasem on Nov 18, 2009 7:17 PM


 
 
Cizerim
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 18 2009, 11:46 PM 


@cizerim

if you decide to travel to iran one day i say hosgeldin kardes from my behalf happy.gif . in tehran you won´t have problems communicating in turkish with the people because many azaris live in tehran besides azari majority provinces like west and east azarbaijan or zanjan (with cities like tabriz, orumieh and others).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thank you, my friend. Sounds very interesting. I look forward to it.

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Saif
(Login titanium100)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 19 2009, 8:08 AM 


Irainan goverment right now is being good most Irainan who lives in Iran feels this way Ahmadaninajad is being confident leader which stand up to west so I think most Irainan needs this kind of leader not like gay puppet shah which was being whore to USA and steals money.


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Sir LurkaLot
(Login w00tness)
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Re: Iranian regime: how much longer?

November 19 2009, 9:36 AM 

Teach me?? :P I will take you down Hospitably of course


Iran must be really liberal..I see two guys wishing to allah they could get drunk and "back-gammon" each other..and here I thought you get hung from a lamppost in Iran for wearing jeans!!

ROFL, I'm sorry, just trolling a bit. Back to topic now :P

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