7/29/2012

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) Iran's new message to parents: Get busy and have babies.

In a major reversal of once far-reaching family planning policies, authorities are now slashing its birth-control programs in an attempt to avoid an aging demographic similar to many Western countries that are struggling to keep up with state medical and social security costs.

The changes announced in Iranian media last week came after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the country's wide-ranging contraceptive services as "wrong." The independent Shargh newspaper quoted Mohammad Esmail Motlaq, a Health Ministry official, as saying family planning programs have been cut from the budget for the current Iranian year, which began in March.

It's still unclear, however, whether the high-level appeals for bigger families will translate into a new population spike. Iran's economy is stumbling under a combination of international sanctions, inflation and double-digit unemployment. Many young people, particularly in Tehran and other large cities, are postponing marriage or keeping their families small because of the uncertainties.

Ali Reza Khamesian, a columnist whose work appears in several pro-reform newspapers, said the change in policy also may be an attempt to send a message to the world that Iran is not suffering from sanctions imposed over the nuclear program that the West suspects is aimed at producing weapons something Tehran denies.

Abbas Kazemi, a doorman in a private office building, said he cannot afford to have more than two children with his salary of about $220 (4.2 million rials) a month.

"I cannot afford daily life," he said. "I have to support my wife and two children as well my elderly parents."

More than half of Iran's population is under 35 years old. Those youth form the base of opposition groups, including the so-called Green Movement that led unprecedented street protests after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in 2009. Some experts have said that trying to boost the numbers for upcoming generations also could feed future political dissent.

"Young people are the heart of the Arab Spring, or the Islamic Awakening as Iran calls it," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center based in Geneva. "Countries that haven't faced major protests during the Arab Spring still have to be mindful that the demands of the youth are still there."

The policy shift brings the country full circle.

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, families were strongly encouraged to contribute to a baby boom demanded by leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who wanted fast population growth to contribute to a "20 million member army" in support of the ruling theocracy. In 1986, toward the end of the eight-year war with Iraq, census figures show the population's growth rate reached 3.9 percent among the highest in the world at the time and in line with Persian traditions that favor big families.

But the leadership just as quickly hit the brakes in the 1990s, fearing a galloping population could overwhelm the economy. Iran became a regional leader in family-planning options, including offering free or subsidized condoms and other contraceptives, and issuing religious edicts in favor of vasectomies. One clinic in Tehran promoted its vasectomy services in huge letters atop a water tower.

Banners at public health care centers urged smaller families as a path to a better life. By 2011, the most recent period for which figures are available, Iran's population growth had fallen to one of the lowest in region 1.3 percent.

The official policy changes began in 2005 after the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who called the birth control measures ungodly and a Western import. In 2009, he unveiled proposals for each new baby to receive $950 in a government bank account and then get $95 every year until reaching 18.

On Wednesday, Khamenei said contraceptive policy made sense 20 years ago, "but its continuation in later years was wrong."

"Scientific and experts studies show that we will face population aging and reduction (in population) if the birth-control policy continues," said Khamenei a day after the Statistical Center of Iran said the country's population had reached more than 75.1 million more than double its 33.7 million in 1976.

Ali Reza Mesdaghinia, the deputy health minister, told the semiofficial Fars news agency on Sunday that population control programs "belonged to the past."

"There is no plan to keep number of the children at one or two. Families should decide about it by themselves," said Mesdaghinia. "In our culture, having a large number of children has been a tradition. In the past families had five or six children. The culture still exists in the rural areas. We should go back to our genuine culture."

Lawmaker Moayed Hoseini said on the parliament's website that some 100 lawmakers have signed a bill aimed at canceling the pro-family planning laws from the early 1990s.

A midwife, Fatemeh Iranmanesh, said the number of pregnancies climbed in rural areas after Ahmadinejad's promise for greater aid to families. "Sometime a pregnant mother comes to me with her last infant still breast-feeding," she said.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-29/iran-baby-boom/56576830/1

By Monavar Khalaj in Tehran

July 23, 2012 4:18 pm

When Maryam, a teacher, and her husband Hossein, an engineer, married eight years ago, the middle-class Iranian couple agreed to something almost unthinkable in previous generations: they would have no children.

In todays Iran, their decision is hardly unique: statistics show 19 per cent of couples are childless, while 17.5 per cent have one child and 17 per cent have two.

The size of the countrys families has for decades reflected ideological and political decisions made at the top. Following the 1979 revolution, the Islamic regime pushed for rapid population growth in the hope of raising a 20m-strong army. But following a census in 1986, the warnings started coming in: that growth was leading to mass unemployment and declining education levels.

The ruling clerics decided to curb the population explosion, which by 1986 had reached a peak growth rate of 3.2 per cent. Thanks to the support of the clergy and a free and popular family planning scheme, population growth declined dramatically.

Today the population growth rate stands at 1.2 per cent, with the fertility rate, representing the average number of children born per woman, standing at 1.6. That number is well below the 2.1 that is considered the minimum rate needed in the industrialised world for a population to avoid decline. This, in turn, has led to a new wake-up call.

President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad was the first politician to bring the issue into the spotlight. In 2010 he spoke against encouraging couples to limit their family size to two children, labelling such a limit as a misguided western policy. He said Iran could have a population of 150m, double its size.

He was immediately backed by some radical clerics in the religious city of Qom, who were concerned about the decline in the overall population of Shia Muslims, a minority sect in most of the Islamic world whose largest number are found in Shia-majority Iran. The clerics called for the government to stop all measures encouraging birth control.

Ghasem Ravanbakhsh, a Qom-based cleric, sees the family planning scheme as a conspiracy by Zionists to shrink the Iranian population, saying this danger could be defeated only by the people having more children.

But not all agreed with Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, whose remarks sparked outcry among some experts. They argued that a quick increase in population would lead to heightened unemployment and poverty.

The criticisms, however, did not make the president back down. He has continued to insist on encouraging families to have more children, although no apparent change has been seen in general population policies.

Two years on, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has found more advocates. Experts say policy should be updated to include a smart birth control, encouraging growth in regions of the country where the fertility rate is below the replacement level of 2.1, while maintaining or even increasing family planning services in areas with higher rates.

Studies on new approaches are also under way in the State Expediency Council, which drafts the general policies of the country under the supervision of its leadership.

After 1992, Iran should not defend birth control policy any more, because it has reached the red line [of fertility rates], says Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, the head of the Population Studies and Research Centre in Asia and the Pacific, a state-run body that is affiliated to Irans Ministry of Science, Research and Technology. Now, the number of children must reach two [per family] at any cost, even if it leads to unemployment, because unemployment is better than extinction.

According to the UNs World Population Prospects in 2010 report, should birth rates continue their present pattern, Irans total population will begin falling in two decades, and shrink by more than half to 31m around 2100.

And demographic warnings go beyond a shrinking population. The countrys population is also ageing, and at present rates more than 50 per cent of all Iranians will be over 60 within six decades, according to the UN estimates.

Habibollah Zanjani, a prominent demographer, sees ageing as the most important population matter facing the country in the future.

Not only the number of elderly but also its impact on the population including an ageing of the workforce and support of elderly, will influence other aspects of the society, Mr Zanjani says, adding that the country is ill-prepared for such changes.

Demographers also see little sign that Iranian couples want more children, amid urbanisation, increasing female literacy and employment rates, and the average marriage age being pushed back.

Mr Mahmoudi of the Population Studies and Research Centre has doubts that birth rates can be turned round quickly or easily.

We cannot easily persuade people to have three or four children. Thats not a thing that could be done upon a government order, he says. I think if Iran reaches the day that each family has two children, we should make it a national celebration.

FT

Well I suppose a population of young adults with kids is less prone to violent protest and unrest than the alternative. Is the Iranian gov't adopting the long view here or am I too cynical.

// Is the Iranian gov't adopting the long view here or am I too cynical. //

It isn't possible to be too cynical regarding Iran's current rulers.

Do they need any help..? I can always lend a hand especially if they
look like this.




Our babies would look beautiful.

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Lebensborn Program

What morons. The economy is crap right now and these fvcktards want a bigger population.

The only thing you'll get with a bigger population boom, is more people going abroad for jobs.

Iran's populace is supposed to be around 50 million or so, not 75.

It needs to go down, not up.

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"You burn our beliefs, we burn your kids, it's only fair"

"It's not the ideology alone that they're afraid of, but the determination and will of the men behind that movement" : Parthianshots

Disaster in the making. Iran economy is actually pretty decent. Wait for the GDP per capita to drop to the level of Somalia. At 75 million their population was gorwing reasonably well.

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De Gaulle to the General Koenig, Norman hero of Bir Hakeim: "Hear and tell your troops: the whole of France is watching you, you are our pride."[

I highly doubt anyone will listen to them.

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"You burn our beliefs, we burn your kids, it's only fair"

"It's not the ideology alone that they're afraid of, but the determination and will of the men behind that movement" : Parthianshots

Per Capita GDP is hardly the only measure for personal wealth. The Rial has devalued by, what, 40% in a year and a half, inflation is skyrocketing? The average joe in Iran is having a hard time providing for his family.

// The Rial has devalued by, what, 40% in a year and a half, inflation is skyrocketing? //

The Iranian rial has lost 54% of its value over the past year, and 99.91% of its value since the Beards came to power.

Well, currently Turkey and Iran more or less have the same population at 74 and 75 million, respectively. When you look at both of the countries sizes, Iran is 33% bigger than Turkey, while both countries have the same amount of agricultural and irrigated land.

If you compare the figures with Europe, around 100 million population for both of the countries will be ideal when the growth rate matures in the future. Turkey also has a fastly declining population growth rate now; it is at 1.2% and will continue to fall. Current projections show that our population will mature at around 96-100 million in 2050. I guess the same thing for Iran too.

Well the goverment can spread their propaganda all they want, perhaps it is followed by the 2-3 percent of unneducated and fanatic portion of the population, but Even that I doubt since they barely can feed the children they already have, I just came back from Iran last week after a 4 week visit, and with one chicken costing 17-18 US dollars forget about it

And the majority of the population are well educated enough so even under good economic conditions they would not pump out more than 2 kids per family

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