POLAND IS CAUGHT BETWEEN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk won the parliamentary elections last November, promising to improve radically relations with Russia, which went sour under the previous administration of the Kacziynski brothers. Lech Kacziynski continues to be Polish President but has little influence on actual decision making. Tusk and his ministers have traveled to Moscow and held talks to improve ties, but serious problems continue to mar relations.

Last week in an interview in Warsaw, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski told me, "Our government has a different attitude. We do not believe that the more Russia is annoyed, the better it is for Poland. Russian annoyance is also not an argument to support basing the U.S. MD [missile defense] system in Poland. We have recovered the ability to talk to each other. Russia has lifted the meat embargo; we are ready to lift our veto on Russia starting negotiations with the EU on a new partnership agreement. We have noticed a different tone among Russian officials."

Sikorski was clearly doing his best to emphasize positive trends in Russo-Polish relations. Indeed, Russia has recently scaled down its hostile rhetoric over US plans to base a MD radar system in the Czech Republic and an interceptor base in Poland. The meat embargo that was imposed in 2006 has indeed been lifted, and contracts on the import of Polish meat are being signed. The recent steep rise in world food prices has made Russia more interested in buying Polish agricultural products. Polish-Russian trade last year was $17 billion, but this was mostly Russian oil and gas imports and transit to Europe.

There has recently been an overall change in tone in Russia's dealings with the West and a scaling down of criticism of U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense system in Europe (see EDM, April 10). Warsaw is negotiating with Washington on the conditions of the possible MD interceptor base and with Moscow on transparency arrangements that may alleviate Russian concerns. For Poland it is a matter of principle that an agreement is not negotiated over its head between the Russians and Americans. According to Sikorski, "We are having regular consultations with Russia on the deputy foreign minister level on confidence building measures to do with the proposed MD base. Russia wants permanent access to the MD base. We agree, if that means the right to inspect at short notice plus technical monitoring." Permanent presence of Russian military personnel at the MD base, however, "would be difficult to accept."

The US, Poland and the Czech Republic have also required reciprocal access to Russian military installations, which has infuriated the military, which considers the A-135 MD system covering Moscow a top secret installation. Sikorski told me that the Polish position on reciprocity is flexible. "We are not hung up on getting access to Russian MD facilities. It could [just as well] be reciprocal access to other general Russian military facilities." Last December Russia discontinued its commitment to allow inspections of its conventional forces under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty. Poland wants to regain some capability to inspect conventional Russian forces through possible future MD transparency arrangements. For the Russian military, such a “compromise” might be an unpleasant surprise. The United States is seeking access to Russia’s MD bases and the Poles at the same time and under the same guise are attempting to restart CFE.

Poland has requested billions of dollars of additional U.S. military assistance to modernize its armed forces in exchange for allowing the deployment of U.S. MD interceptors. Poland has also demanded that the U.S. MD base will not have an exterritorial status, making it legally a Polish installation. Poland, according to Sikorski, wants the United States to take legal responsibility for any damage that may be caused by possible falling debris or launch mistakes. Sikorski insisted, "We are a valuable ally, we have been involved in different peacekeeping operations, in Iraq and Afghanistan, we are worth investing in, so we have asked the US to participate in our modernizing efforts. This does not necessarily have to do with the MD base." Still, Polish requests for military aid are seen in Washington as lavish and have caused annoyance.

There are other serious issues, not connected directly to MD or NATO. In 2006 Russia shut the Soviet-built outlet of the “Druzba” pipe that supplied crude to Lithuania's Mazeikiu refinery. The official reason for the shutoff was leaks in the old pipe. Analysts have linked the oil stoppage, however, to Lithuania's decision to allow the Polish company PKN Orlen to buy the refinery, which several Russian firms were interested in (Reuters, February 11). According to Sikorski, "We are ready to pay for repairs, build a new pipeline to Mazeikiu if needed. Vladimir Putin said he would look into it."

If Russia indeed allows the resumption of crude pipeline supplies to Mazeikiu, there will be a price attached, say, concessions on MD reciprocal requirements or less Polish support for future NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. There may be commercial conditions, say, some Kremlin-connected oil company taking over part of Mazeikiu or other Polish-controlled gas and oil infrastructures. Tusk may have hoped that a “pragmatic” approach to Russia would help speed up cooperation, but pragmatic deals with Moscow are often as difficult as any other.

http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372981





Provost

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.

Calvin Coolidge, President of the United States 1924-1929

Hardly caught between, it allowed itself to be caught between. America has zero leverage over Poland yet they allow themselves to have leverage against them, mainly through stupid military acquisition and agreements.

Moscow's only leverage is Oil and Gas and the more they push at it the more Poland seeks to diversify it's Oil and Gas lines...

http://www.energy-business-review.com/article_news.asp?guid=A7AFA1F2-945F-4E30-BBDF-1F6BB969758F

Moscow is actually forcing Poland into a position it really shouldn't be, that is basically forcing Poland it diversify out of fear. This will turn Poland even further away from Moscow's influence, what are they going to threaten with, banning imports?

Poland needs more time to realise the old ways are dead and Europe is it's future, like it or not. Scarred from all sides, Poland needs time to find it's place... Neither is with Washington or Moscow.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

actually it isnt just oil and gas, but agriculture too. Russia can bankrupt a lot of Polish farmers. I am sorry but Russia is more than oil and gas today. The biggest growing industries in Russia are banking and construction and our Polish friends know that oil and gas are no longer the only levers. The Druzba pipeline shutdown was less of an issue than the meat ban for the Polish.

i am curious with regard to the missile defence system,

if russia was to launch a missile attack it would simply first launch attacks on the host nations of the defence systems, then proceed to their primary target...all these nations r doing is makin themselves buffers to make western europe prepare... and how accurate is this deffence system, i doubt they could stop a large cale barrage of missiles...or could they, i dnt know their capabilities

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Shutting off the "druzhba" pipeline, how ironic...

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Quote: Poland needs more time to realise the old ways are dead and Europe is it's future, like it or not. Scarred from all sides, Poland needs time to find it's place... Neither is with Washington or Moscow.

I couldn't agree more with the above comment.
It is something I have mentioned in the GT sub forum with respect to the way Albanians and FYROM sees the USA.

It is obvious that former socialistic states have made a reflex turn towards the USA after the fall of the USSR. This is understandable since they had been oppressed for 50 years. Especially Poland throughout its history was caught between the Germans and the Russians. It is understandable that at the moment they seek "refuge" to Uncle Sam.

Nevertheless these former communistic states, and I mean all of them, do not have a clear view of how the Western institutions work. They need time to adopt and learn. At the time they are behaving like US protectorates believing that the US are almighty and that the given US president (at the moment G. W. Bush) is their protector, the modern equivalent of Pappa Stalin.

Nothing made that more evident than the recent NATO summit in Bucharest (2-4.04.2008) where former socialists states of Ukraine, Georgia, FYROM, Albania and Croatia seeked entry to the alliance.

The Croatians being the most ready of all managed to enter the alliance, the Albanians too with more political than military criteria ( after all what could Albania offer militarilly to the alliance?). The way the Albanians saw the USA was evident at the speech of PM Sali Berisha who spoke with awe, referring to G. W. Bush (the most inadequate US president ever in general belief), and was crying out "thank you, it is a miracle!!!" as if NATO and the USA would solve all of Albanians problems all of the sudden.

But the real lesson for the former communist states during the Bucharest NATO summit can be sought in the issues of Georgia, Ukraine and FYROM. All of these countries relied in the belief that the USA is so strong that they can get them in NATO even if other allies object to that. They tend to see NATO and the USA and believe that it is the equivalent of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR, where everyone would do as they were told by the Soviets or would get invaded (see Prague and Budapest invasions by the USSR). They fail to realize that the West works in different ways.

In the case of FYROM in fact what made me think was that the people and government of that country were in shock after Greece vetoed their entry. Although Greece had clearly stated that it would do so and prepared that veto diplomatically (what else should be more alarming than that?) by informing all the allies and forging alliances within the alliance FYROM was convinced that the USA would pull a rabbit out of the hat and somehow they would get them into NATO. They were in complete shock to find out otherwise. According to reporters some FYROM officials rumbled after the summit that they couldn't understand how that could happen, meaning that "how the wishes of the USA would not be imposed?".

Same story for Ukraine and Georgia with the Germans and French trying to prevent a new Cold War that would benefit only the USA and would forbid Europeans to become more independent from the USA.

Bottom line the former communist states are exactly what Rummsfeld meant by New Europe. He clearly said that it is on New Europe that the US have to rely. Simply because New Europe is used to taking orders from the superpower ( it used to be USSR, now USA). The lesson from the NATO summit is that NATO and the West work in another way. Maybe these countries don't get it at the time but eventually and with time they will develop their own new reflexes as the old anti Russian reflexes will be fading.

Eventually, and for those that are already in the EU, the reality that the hand that feeds you is the one that you don't bite will be understood. The hand that feeds them? EU of course. ( In order not to be misunderstood by "feeding" I mean the economic interests). And that EU counties are expected to show some solidarity among each other in other organizations such as NATO and UN. The ones that don't get it are the UK and New Europe. For the first it is a matter of eurosceptism but for the later it is merely a matter of time to understand it.

Russia can bankrupt a lot of Polish farmers

Not if and when Polish farms are finally are bought out and unified from the current shambles of thousands of small private farms. This will also take time, but Poland has the potential to be the bread basket of Europe (once more) and out produce most European nations alone. Even today it is a net exporter even in it's inefficient set up.

The meat ban was an issue because it was merely a political ploy that had zero merit. It hurt Russia by simply taking away the trade talks it needs with Europe.

There is no need for either country to lock horns. Poland is in no state to challenge Russia, but Poland can be a big thorn in Russia's ass if it really wanted ot be. The problem is Poland is seeking help from the US as if the cold war still exists and Russia keeps pushing like it still has control in Warsaw. When the pushing and pulling stops there will be greater ties.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."