THE WEST CAN RESPOND MORE EFFECTIVELY TO RUSSIA'S ASSAULT ON GEORGIA: PART II

By Vladimir Socor

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Russia has openly recognized politically and “legally” (in terms of Russian law) the secessions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia and has capped that recognition with acts of military aggression in Georgian territory and air space. This is the cumulative meaning of Russia’s recent moves: the presidential decree of April 16, establishing direct official relations with the two secessionist authorities and recognizing their decisions and acts as legally valid; the downing of a Georgian unmanned aircraft on April 20 by a Russian plane; installation of Russian border checkpoints on the Georgian side of the border in the Abkhaz sector; and unilateral deployment of additional Russian troops to Abkhazia (citing Russia’s constitution as one justification), despite Georgia’s protests in late April-early May (see EDM, May 1, 5, 6, 7).

These moves conclusively disqualify Russia from its commanding role as mediator/facilitator in the political negotiations and as military “peacekeeper” in those two conflicts. That Russia was a direct party to the conflicts had been obvious since their inception. Nevertheless, international organizations and the West conceded the arbiter’s role to Russia, on the basis that Russia recognized Georgia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty at least on paper. By the same token, Russia was careful to maintain that front.

After its latest moves, however, Moscow has forfeited any claim as main mediator and sole “peacekeeper” in these conflicts. By advancing from de facto to “legal” recognition of the secessions, Russia has exposed these conflicts’ real nature, which has long since mutated from local “inter-ethnic” conflicts into interstate conflicts, conducted by Russia on Georgian territory.

In her testimony on May 6 to the European Parliament, European Union External Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero Waldner made it clear that Russia was to be regarded as a party to the conflict (Civil Georgia, May 6, 7). The U.S. White House statement also on May 6 made that same point. It reflects a growing realization in the West, that is finally catching up with reality. It has now become untenable, at least publicly, to argue that Russia is an impartial arbiter between the secessionist authorities and Georgia, let alone between Russia itself and Georgia.

This new realization, however, has yet to translate into action toward transforming the peacekeeping and negotiating formats from mere covers for Russian monopolism into genuine international formats. On May 5 Georgia’s ambassador in Brussels, Salome Samadashvili, appealed to the EU to “get serious about starting talks on changing the formats. The EU can step up and be the real objective broker” as well as “send a very clear signal to Russia that there will be a political cost to relations between Russia and the EU” if Russia continues flouting international law in Georgia (EurActiv, May 5).

Tbilisi has not asked the EU at this time to initiate an international peacekeeping operation in Georgia. Rather, it seeks a discussion with the EU, the United Nations, and the OSCE about steps to transform the existing peacekeeping and negotiating formats. The EU collectively will be slow to move to action. Reflecting institutional inertia and undoubtedly his instructions from the top, the EU’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, answered ambivalently: “If the parties desire a stronger role for the EU, the EU will look at the possibilities, given that the existing peacekeeping force does not seem to enjoy the trust of all the parties and has become a source of disagreements … a source of controversy between Russia and Georgia” (interview with RFE/RL, May 3).

By this logic, an EU peacekeeping role would be subject to consent from “the parties,” i.e., Russia could veto it. At the same time and by a converse logic, Georgian disagreement with Russian “peacekeeping” is not yet seen as a compelling reason for EU involvement in internationalizing the Russian operation.

As a minimal and symbolic measure, in order to discourage further Russian military moves, the EU can send top-level officials on visits to Tbilisi. The EU can also offset Russian “hard power” with EU “soft power” through reconstruction assistance in the conflict areas, preferably channeled through Tbilisi-loyal authorities in Upper Abkhazia and the Dmitry Sanakoyev-led authorities in South Ossetia. The EU is being unaccountably slow to endorse, or contribute input to, Georgia’s recent twin proposals: to develop a concept of autonomy for Abkhazia and to internationalize the negotiations on South Ossetia in a 2+2+2 format (Georgia and Russia, the EU and the OSCE, Tskhinvali authorities, and Sanakoyev authorities). Georgian officials familiarized their EU counterparts with these proposals during emergency visits to Brussels, following the latest Russian military moves in Abkhazia (Messenger, Civil Georgia, May 6, 7).

Looking beyond the current crisis, the EU could initiate the transformation of Russian “peacekeeping” operations in Georgia. Such transformation would involve not only their internationalization but also their “civilianization,” that is, turning them from military operations into mainly civilian ones, with police units and some military observers. Free from Russian veto power (unlike the United Nations and the OSCE) and having itself deployed civilian police operations in post-Yugoslav conflict areas, the EU can demonstrate the use of this soft-power instrument in Georgia.

http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373040




Provost

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.

Calvin Coolidge, President of the United States 1924-1929

lol? EU cant do anything because it doesnt have enough power in the region, in fact it doesnt have ANY power in the region.

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Right EU is just a USA puppet organization.
They even don't have their defense forces.

If Kosovo could succed perhaps these regions could to the russians could use as arguments

Or even if Georgia could seceed from the Soviet Union these two regions could seccede from Georgia etc etc


NExt Karelia could be handed back to FInland and northern Khazakhstan dominated by russians to Russia

The Federal Reserve Scam!

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Right EU is just a USA puppet organization.
They even don't have their defense forces.

Sadly you are correct , il give it to the French and Germans though , they seem to be the only country's that have something to say other than lick the ass of the USA.

The US is WAY overcommited in Iraq. We're not going to be bothering anyone else for awhile.



Would you trust this man"

and Russia could whip the EU i believe?. Stay off the dope, Russia is in a poor state and still soaking its sorrows in poverty that still affects most Russian citizens. Try looking up transnational organised crime with human trafficking from Russia to U.S.

the west has no business to interfere with Georgia, the west has commited many sins itself to care about the sins of the other countries, plus they can do nothing to Russia since they did not even care to organize and bring to surface an effective European army and an independent European Union which would not be subjected to the pimping of the US.

I must add also that the US has no business to interfere to the internal affairs of Georgia and the rest of the former Soviet Union republics, if Russia has become more aggressive this is owed mainly to the provoqative behaviour of the US which tries to encircle Russia by creating puppet states militarily controlled by her and using them in order to surround Russia.

Russia has the right to defend herself against military threats as every state in the world is entitled to do so and this should be well known the the foreign policy makers of the US

ODYSSEUS KILLING THE SUITORS

EU is a joke. Alone it can not defend itself !!

Sorry but Russia will not be attacking any serious power, such as the EU. EU covers 1/3 of worlds economy, best technology available, best universities, some of the worlds strongest countries and a good average salary.

Russia, $500 dollar monthly salary on average lol and ageing weapons with only ballistic missiles and air defences to its name. ALos passing the UK, if true, isnt plausable. Your comparing Russia, the worlds largets country with double the UK population, island as such.

I know whos side im on.

the wolds best technologies and universities belong to the US not to Europe just to make clear this point since the US spends 6 times more money in research and technology that all the European countries together., anyway Russia will not be attacking a major power because they dont have any reason to do so but if Europe gives them the reason by acting as the servant and pawn of the US then they should consider it very carefuly because as i said earlier Europe does not have yet a coordinated European army which will act effectively with similar training techniques, equipment and infastructure against a common enemy, and the numbers and populations do not play any significant role here what really matters is that Russia is not only a nuclear power which pocesses almost half of the nuclear weapons which exist globally but a country wich produces armor, missiles, aircrafts, ships, submarines, short and long range weapons, and many other goodies ,so we are not talking about only of anti aircraft weapons (athough producing sophisticated anti aircraft weapons indicates a high technological level). The Russians may be poor but have you ever considered the possibility that this might be their biggest strength? history has displayed that poor people use to fight better because they are more highly motivated than people who have high salaries and enjoy a better life so they are not disposed to risk of loosing it by participating in a war.

In any case Russia is not a poor country as many people wrongfully imagine here , she pocesses vast resources especially of oil and the acquisition of those resources by the state guarantees that in case of war the state (i repeat the state, not the people ) will have enough money and resources to convert its economy to fully military during a short leash of time since the basic infastructure and technology already exists, and here we should make clear a misunderstanding poor people do not necessarily indicate a poor state just keep that in mind.

Im not in favor of the Russians, im not in favor of the EU either since im in favor of justice and justice is being served by those who promote peace and not by acolytes and pawns who act according to the orders of a superpower with the purpose of promoting instability and military provoqing other countries, im in favor of the EU as long as it acts in an independent way and it promotes peace instead of tensions and wars otherwise i dont even want to know about it my friend

ODYSSEUS KILLING THE SUITORS

Wrong, Oxford and Cambridge out classes most US universiites. just thought id clear that up too. Also Europe and U.S are basiclaly on par with technology.U.S only has Harvard and Yale to its name in the top ten.(did have Stanford, what happened?)

Also EU combined as a larger economy. US. can never be compared with 1 EU state. U.S is simply too big and bigger population, so only the EU as a whole.


EU is surposedly based on peace. Also EU would never threaten Russia anyway, unless it was threatened first.

Also EU spends ten folds more than Russia on military spending, but as you siad, their singular and not combined. Nukes count for nothing unless you want to be fried chicken in return.

I agree with you about Europe acting as U.S pawn though. Its tiring and not needed.

Oxford and Yale are certainly well known Universities as Harward, Collumbia, Cornell and dozens of others in the US i dont wont to expand on this since a prestigious university does not necessarily indicate that it is the best, anyway my point is that the US has so many universities that you cannot possibly compare it with Europe every single state has City Universities and SUNIS( State Universities) and dozens of private colleges and of course the Us spends much more money for research and technology  especially in the military field  and aeronautics than Europe, now as to if we can compare them my intention was not to compare them (although after the expansion of the EU those 2 powers may be comparable) but to point out that EU is not the greatest power in education and technology as you pointed out earlier.

Now as far as the Nukes is concerned i agree that it is mainly a psychological weapon and if it is used the destruction will be so great that it will overshadow any benefits from its usage, however a country which pocesses nuclear power is always a country having nuclear power and it when it feels threatened it might used it no matter what the concequences might be, personally speaking i dont trust as i have said in the past anybody who pocess nuclear power.

To the rest we agree, i never said that Europe will attack Russia but i rather said that Europe should not act as a pawn of the Us because this way she provoques Russia so i think that we agree on that

ODYSSEUS KILLING THE SUITORS

i hav a feeling if EU and USA plays too much with this bear...its gonna start to bite back hard...ppl should mind their own business... if u gave ethnic group their owen nation then we would hav 10000000 tribes in the world each with their own tiny patch of land... things dnt work like that...u hav nations, these groups r represented in such nations...and geogians were well represented in russia throughout history...mr stalin was himself a georgian...

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the EU now outspends the US in R&D as well. As for defense spending, the EU may outspend Russia but the problem is the EU duplicates capabilities as a result you have crap capabilities.

I think sooner the EU gets independnace from U.S the better. I surpose the Galileo is a starter. Theres a different between partnership and being a pawn, and EU is behaving like a pawn on a chess board.

Whats the present news between Russia and Georgia? Hopefully it will cool off.

EU & US are in no right to be hypocrites over Abkhazia after what it did to Serbs and Kosovo.

"Sadly you are correct , il give it to the French and Germans though , they seem to be the only country's that have something to say other than lick the ass of the USA."

The only diff between francogermans and the rest is the amount of licking they are willing to do, a bit less

USA douse not spend 6x more than Eu on R&D,,,,,post a reference or a link!
But USA is the most indebited nation,,,,,,,
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USA basicaly just shoped for scientists from EU after WW2...but with Lisabon treaty that chanaged.....and so did the introduction of Euro and so on.........
What will happen remains to be seen......

The west had NO BUSINESS to interfere in Kosovo, hacking part of a nation off and giving it to someone else. So now the Russians are supporting the same thing. The west cannot say a phuckin word about it ..........EVER........because they have no moral high ground to open their mouths. Not only that, but they are POWERLESS to do anything anyway. Paybacks are a b.itch. NATZO fked with Serbia illegaly and now Georgia, NATZO's intended client is going to get reamed 2 new arseholes and there is NOTHING that they can do about it. The Russians have warned of this situation during Kosovo negotiations in the UNSC, but the west ignored the warnings and had not believed the Russians. They have now discovered that the Russians have made good on their word. Maybe the west should listen next time, and anyone who thinks that Russia is going to allow Georgia to join NATO is smoking crack.



http://kypros.org/Occupied_Cyprus/lambousa/