Can the EU defend itself?
May 29th 2008
From Economist.com
A bit of paranoia is a healthy thing
AS WESTERN countries scramble to deal with Russia's increasingly energetic espionage efforts, their security services are hurriedly rehiring some of the seasoned spycatchers they let go in the past years.
But at the European Union attitudes are still worryingly dozy. Russian spying in Brussels and Strasbourg, say those who try to keep an eye it, is far better financed, better aimed and better co-ordinated than ever before. The efforts of the elite foreign-intelligence service, the SVR, and the GRU (military intelligence), are now supplemented by the FSB, a much more thuggish outfit that used to deal solely with internal issues.
Some of the intelligence officers are under traditional diplomatic cover; others are journalists, lobbyists, consultants and even students. It would be an unusually stony-hearted eurocrat who did not try to help a charming young enthusiast who wants material for a doctoral thesis.
AFPWho's listening?
A combination of vanity and naivety makes it remarkably easy for Russians (and those working on their behalf) to snoop, nudge and make mischief. It is sad but true that many people working in European institutions (the parliament is a particular culprit) are immensely self-important but largely insignificant to the outside world. That makes them vulnerable to deft flattery on the lines of: “It is only people like you, Mr Mepnik, who really understand the importance of this issue. I greatly appreciate your insights, and I wonder if you could help me with one rather specific question…”
Darker arts may be at play too. Lobbying in the European system is still scandalously murky and underregulated. If the reward for a full and frank discussion, or for a copy of an interesting document, is a bottle of €300 wine, or a discreet evening spent in particularly pleasant company, it passes almost without notice.
Though the Russian efforts are increasingly brazen, keeping track of them is proving tricky. Belgium's counter-intelligence service is notoriously understaffed and toothless. The European Commission has hugely improved its internal security in the past five years, but it is only as strong as its weakest links. Its in-house encrypted e-mail system is secure—until some lazy official forgets to use it and sends an extra copy in plain text. MEPs and their staff have the right to see sensitive materials, but are slack about taking care of them.
Member states' attitudes to Russia differ (to put it mildly). An approach that would set alarm bells ringing in officials from, say, Finland or Britain may seem nothing to worry about (or positively welcome) from countries with little or different historical experiences of Russia.
The problem is most urgent in the EU's external relations. What is the point of negotiating if the bottom line is leaked to the other side in advance? How will the proposed new diplomatic service handle classified information?
It is hard to imagine any part of the EU administering a security-clearance regime of the kind common in countries serious about their security, complete with exhaustive background checks and intrusive questions about the subject’s personal life. Yet without a high common standard for handling information, the new EU foreign service will be at best useless, and at worst a danger to all member states' own security.
To see how strikingly asymmetrical the position is, try imagining it the other way round: a world where bright-eyed interns from EU countries wander the corridors of the Kremlin at will, snaffling documents and bamboozling bureaucrats. The EU's ideals of openness and trust are admirable. But as long as the rest of the world does things differently, a healthy dose of paranoid secrecy is long overdue.
Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.
Calvin Coolidge, President of the United States 1924-1929
By numbers? By numbers Russia/China/USA will slaughter anything EU has 5 times over, even after there will still be enough left over to create an 8 lane highway from Beijing to Paris made up of entirely unused artillery shells.
By numbers? By numbers Russia/China/USA will slaughter anything EU has 5 times over, even after there will still be enough left over to create an 8 lane highway from Beijing to Paris made up of entirely unused artillery shells.
Neither China nor Russia are in any state to be warring with anyone. Russia is no Soviet Union, though they like to think they are with their for the most part paper army.
Filin you are crazy.....ur need to get something straight! Russia is not USSR!Get over it!
Today we live in a HIgh Tech age where a smaller country can afford to defend its self against a
a far larger Country....Italy for example can afford similar in High Tech weaponry as Russia.
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And you dont wana eavn compare whole EU.......EU can easily stand against both the USA and Russia combined....After all EU has Manpower,Laborforce and a GDP that equals to USA and Russia combined.
And that Statistic will increase in EU,s fawor with Eu expansion..........simple mathemathics!
Also,Let Me remind you that EU Military budget is 300 billion and second only to the one of the USA.
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Now in a conventional war i think EU can defend its self against any Nation or eavn 2 Nations,but Nuklear War would destroy the Planet and awryone would lose......so i wont discuss this nonsence.
This message has been edited by Veles25 on May 31, 2008 4:02 AM
A combined EU Armed Forces would hold pretty well against Russia since Russia has no power projection past the Ukraine. Anything further then L'viv is too far for the current Russian army logistically.
How exactly do expect the glorious Russian Army to single handedly smash the European forces? At worst you'll punish Finland (then again they could make you bleed once more), the Baltic States and Poland with heavy bombardment and a slight push into the territory before hitting a stalemate.
Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."
My comment was about the numbers of China/Russia/USA against the EU, I was merely comparing stockpiles of weapons. There would never be a war as it would be too stupid for EU(which is not even a country) to invade its energy supplier, and Russians are just happy ripping off the Europeans with $135/b oil.
As for Russia AND the US against the EU, I mean come on, there would be troops pouring in from every nook and cranny.
So Ivan's spying on the EU now?...good we'll bore him to death with fishing quatas and pastoral land re-distribution models.....take that you former commies!! hardball.
Fair winds......
Dauntless sons of Celtic sires
Whose souls the love of freedom fires,
Hark! ev'ry harp to war inspires
On Cader Idris side.
See the brave advancing,
See the brave advancing,
Each well-tried spear
Which Saxons fear,
In warlike splendour glancing.
Proud Harlech from her frowning tow'rs
Pours forth her never failing pow'rs.
Rouse, heroes, glory shall be ours,
March on, your country's pride!
I don't think anyone said China, The US and Russia vs the EU but each nation single handedly versus a combined EU.
Also, the Russians at the way they are going will lose customers if they don't settle down a bit, already happening with a new pipe line being built between Poland and the Ukraine. Russia may have the oil and gas Europe needs, but Europe if it really needs to will move to secure other ventures, Russia should accept that fact.
Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."
You seem to forget that Russia has about 140 million people spread over a very large territory.
EU pays for oil today, but oil's days are numbered. What that tells you ?
Russia has no actual big power,other than it's nuclear stockpiles. In any conventional war with EU or US will simply lose in a matter of days and will look like Iraq, very fast.
Imagine that all EU countries can project some power, since many of them are in Afghanistan now. Many build aircrafts and i guess all make small arms/textiles/vehicles and food to sustain an army, far away from home. Plus, most of anything they do, is of better quality.
So, be glad and hope EU will never go to war.
Russia is now a fairly rich country. This talk about Russian power being limited to nukes and oil no longer makes any sense. The Russian government is sitting on close to a trillion dollars in hard cash and unlike Europe, Russia has no welfare state to support. In the past few year Russia has swallowed up Indian cell phone operators, 20% of US domestic steel production, IBM chip making facilities, Algerian and Libyan energy assets, it has built or acquired several refineries, something the US has not done in decades and it has gone on a highway building spree not seen anywhere since the US in the 1950's. In terms of malls Russia is currently building more square meters of space than any place in Europe. The Russian economic boom is happening in EVERY sector of the economy. European car makers have shifted huge percentages of their production to Russia. St. Petersberg is the new Detroit.
Europe not only gets its oil, timber and ferrous and non-ferrous metals from Russia but an increasing number of goods -- including its cars from Russia.
Russia today can do more economic damage to Europe than the USSR ever could.
This message has been edited by irkut on May 31, 2008 2:32 PM
Yes, really......the new Detroit
Aha, they all shift their production to Russia... really now. That's why Renault, Ford and soon Mercedes came in Romania instead. But "shifting" production is to much to say. Only NOKIA shifted production, from Germany to Romania and it was a big scandal and for a good reason.
But i don't think Russia will be so great in this field, or will export something. Will simply consume what it produces and the money will fly to investors.
This message has been edited by 7castle on May 31, 2008 5:41 PM
Unfortunately the EU is, IMO STILL unable to defend itself AS A UNIT. So far there has been no real effective mechanism which would enable all the EU nations to act as ONE force such as China, U.S. or even Russia.
Even at current size european army's can easily handle the russians. no need to increase numbers, better keep them small and mobile for international missions.
Can homosexuals like europeans defend themselves? I dont know nor do I care about faggot$ I know ger-mark posted another gay video I came here to express disgust.
Can homosexuals like europeans defend themselves? I dont know nor do I care about faggot$ I know ger-mark posted another gay video I came here to express disgust.
effing fags. burn u twerps
Can you really be this stupid?! All you do is go around calling Europeans fagots and predicting the imminent death of the American economy, closely followed by inshallah the deaths of all infidels. Do you have a life? Do you get a kick out of this? Do you think anyone actually listens to you or takes you seriously?
Russia has more nuclear warheads (and ballistic missiles to deliver them) than the rest of the world combined. Their navy is also considerably large, especially their submarine fleet with ICBMs.
The problem with the EU (and NATO) is that they resemble the Hydra in Greek mythology: They have way too many heads, which should make decisions unanimously.
Before the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, it took long NATO debates to deploy PAC-3 batteries to southeastern Turkey, mostly around the Incirlik Air Base. Some NATO countries (like Belgium) voiced their opposition. The Netherlands and the U.S. individually agreed to send PAC-3 batteries, without waiting a NATO consent.
I think this event was a good example which showed the weakness of such alliances - which exist "on paper" but in times of crisis, can't make decisions swiftly, or unanimously.
I would expect many "sweetass" EU member states to remain neutral in a conflict between Russia and an EU member state, saying "it's none of our business". The same is valid for small NATO members with limited military equipment.
The problem with the EU (and NATO) is that they resemble the Hydra in Greek mythology: They have way too many heads, which should make decisions unanimously.
You're certainly right about that.
But the point is that a swarm of F-16/Eurofighter/tornado/Rafale/Mirage avaialble thought the different European AF is a considerable force.
if europe is ever invaded it force your every day european to work together, futhermore europe is not to this date propagating european nationalism to the every day citizen..but during a crisis i think it will in spades.
if europe bands together all its armory then i think europe will not only repel an invasion but also counter attack.
europe has 600 million citizens majority of them have money and are well off.
I agree Europe is perhaps the most advanced region in whole wide world with highest purchasing power, well educated citizens, albeit homosexual. apart from their widespread homosexuality and lack of unity (UK blocking french/german moves to unite it, turkey being rejected every time, UK doing american bidding), europe has everything going in its favour. if it can unite.
But the point is that a swarm of F-16/Eurofighter/tornado/Rafale/Mirage avaialble thought the different European AF is a considerable force"
youre right. europa can be more considerable force if they united. now its easier to take out europa country by country, the equipment is great, numbers arent.
