Can divided Belgium hold together?

Belgium has launched a drive to reshape its institutions, following months of government paralysis. At the heart of the crisis is a tension between the Dutch-speaking Flemish and Francophones. In the final of a series of articles, Henri Astier asks if Belgium can remain united, and considers the lessons for other multi-ethnic entities.




Earlier this month the Flemish sports minister suggested restructuring Belgium's football federation, creating Francophone and Dutch-speaking wings.

The plan drew loud boos from French-speakers.

The vice-president of national champions Standard Liege called it as a "dangerous first step towards a split" - and threatened to make an even bigger step by joining the French league if it went ahead.

The row neatly encapsulates what some fear could be the unravelling of Belgium itself.

The events might unfold along the following lines: the autonomy-minded Flemish, who are richer and more numerous than French-speakers, grow impatient with protracted devolution talks; in next year's regional election Flemish nationalists do well; alarmed Francophones seek solace in a union with France.

A recent poll by Le Soir newspaper suggested that 49% of people in Wallonia, the French-speaking half of Belgium, want to become French if their country breaks up.

"There is a vicious circle where Francophones feel that radicalisation is gathering pace in Flanders," says Olivier Mouton, Le Soir's political editor.

"They brace themselves for Flemish independence and become radicalised themselves."

Flemish Copernicus

The paradox is that separation would happen without either side actively seeking it.

Only about 10% of Flemish voters want independence. Support for unity is overwhelming in Wallonia.


Could Belgians really be sleepwalking towards separation? Flemish leaders say they only want to reform the Belgian state, not dismantle it.

"I am not in favour of the independence," Kris Peeters, Flanders' Minister-President, told the BBC News website. "Solidarity" between Flanders and other regions will remain, he insists.

However his stated goal is a "Copernican revolution" where federal powers are greatly reduced and the main decisions taken by regions.

"For me the most important level will be the regional level," he says.

Mr Peeters' career reflects this belief in the regions' supremacy. He spurned a seat in the Belgian parliament.

Asked what he would do if offered a key federal ministry he says unhesitatingly: "I would turn it down too."

And his description of the current "dialogue between the communities" points to his ideal of quasi-sovereign entities: "We have two delegations, like two separate states discussing a treaty."

Anonymous celebrities

Some commentators believe that the dynamic of Belgian politics lead the French and Dutch speakers away from each other.


Following devolution reforms over the past 45 years, all parties are now either Dutch-speaking or French-speaking.

Gie Goris, editor of Mo magazine, notes that countries which accept ethnically based politics, like Sri Lanka, are inherently unstable.

Belgians are not about to kill each, Mr Goris admits, but they should be wary of ever more devolution: "The changes you bring to the political build-up of a country have a long-term snowballing effect."

Belgium has no common public sphere to speak of. The communities don't watch the same TV channels.

BELGIUM BY NUMBERS

10.5 million people
Flanders: 6 million people
Wallonia: 3,5 million people
Brussels: 1 million people


Belgium's devolution conundrum

Celebrities from one side can walk totally anonymously across the "linguistic border" - as it is tellingly called. "You have a whole different cultural universe in the north and the south of the country," says Yves Desmet, political commentator for the Dutch-language De Morgen newspaper.

Differences are striking in both big and small ways.

Although the railways are federal, train tickets are not bilingual - in Flanders they are in Dutch only, while tickets for the same journeys printed in Wallonia are in French.

Health habits also vary widely.

French-speakers, like most southern Europeans, are heavy users of antibiotics and expensive diagnostic procedures such as MRI scans, while the Flemish tend to frown on these, as do most northern Europeans.

Digital divide

To be sure, some things still unite Belgians. They drink the same beers. They all cheered the mixed team that won silver for Belgium in the women's 4x100m Olympic relay in Beijing.

Belgium's successful relay team enjoyed cross-community support

The king commands respect on both sides - although his Flemish subjects are more lukewarm in their affection.

In economic matters, the picture is mixed. Flanders and Wallonia are each other's main trading partner, but in the booming technology sector contact is limited.

Nonillion, an up-and-coming IT firm based in Ghent, does not have a single customer in Wallonia.

Chief executive Rudi Van den Bossche says French is not a requirement for his staff. "Most of our customers ask for bilingual - meaning Dutch and English," he says.

In Brussels, on the other hand, bilingualism tends increasingly to be the norm. Still, the overall picture is one of division.

"If you were a Martian and read the Flemish newspapers and the Walloon newspapers you would think they're describing two different countries," says De Morgen's Yves Desmet.

You say you want a revolution

But does this continued estrangement mean that Belgium is doomed? Many commentators do not think so.


First there is the question of Brussels. The capital is a region in its own right, distinct from both Flanders and Wallonia. It is also richer than both, as well as the seat of the EU and Nato.

As a result, neither side can accept a takeover of the other on Brussels. And without it, each is a marginalised hinterland. The status quo is thus the best option for both.

Moreover, Belgium's proportional representation voting system is a big hurdle for those seeking radical change.

In a first-past-the-post systems, a winner clearly takes charge. But Belgian leaders have to cobble coalitions with groups from both sides of the divide.

"When [President Nicolas] Sarkozy is elected in France, he can implement a policy of 'rupture'. But with us, rupture is never possible because compromise must always be reached with other parties," says Belgian deputy Foreign Minister Olivier Chastel.

Revolutions, Copernican or otherwise, are mightily difficult to bring about in Belgium.

Muddling through

According to Dave Sinardet, a political scientist at Antwerp University, the fact that Belgium's communities lead largely separate lives, and have no great affection for each other, need not spell the end of the country.



"These things are also true of the European Union and are not a problem for its continued existence," he says.

This raises an interesting point about parallels between Belgium and the EU.

The country was long regarded as a model for nations living in harmony under common institutions.

Then, over the past year, the Belgian stalemate was seen as a reflection of the EU's divisions and the travails of its reform treaty.

The real parallel, however, may be neither rosy nor gloomy, but bitter-sweet.

In both Belgium and the EU, shared institutions seem able to muddle through despite indifference from their constituent nations - rather like old couples who don't talk but stay together because separation is more trouble than it is worth.

Federalists both in Belgium and Europe might see this as too negative an argument for union - but it is a comfort of sorts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7678777.stm

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A suspected Kemalist terrorist arrested by Turkish police and now in prison

Kemalist :

"let me tell every Ataturk hater what i will do with you when i locate your exact location


1) i will then remove your eye balls out and jerk off into that hole
2)i will rape your entire family
3) i will flesh your skin , use it as a stock for future cooking
4)i will remove your guts and feed my dog
5)lastly i will do extensive research about your family tree and dedicate my future years to locate each and everyone of your family member and do repeat the process above!"

http://www.topix.com/forum/tr/ankara/TFN5TC47SSSUATAT3/p6

So the journalist concludes by seeming to lean to the view that Belgium will still hold together.

He compares it to the EU as a whole and basically the primacy of ethnic identity is asserted.

The EU is nothing more than just a confederation/commonwealth and will never be anything more, especially when unlike Belgium there is no big "Brussels" to make division difficult.

**********************************



A suspected Kemalist terrorist arrested by Turkish police and now in prison

Kemalist :

"let me tell every Ataturk hater what i will do with you when i locate your exact location


1) i will then remove your eye balls out and jerk off into that hole
2)i will rape your entire family
3) i will flesh your skin , use it as a stock for future cooking
4)i will remove your guts and feed my dog
5)lastly i will do extensive research about your family tree and dedicate my future years to locate each and everyone of your family member and do repeat the process above!"

http://www.topix.com/forum/tr/ankara/TFN5TC47SSSUATAT3/p6

Unless Brussels disappears, Belgium won't ever be divided.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

Belgium should breakup. The German parts to Germany, French parts to France and Dutch parts to the Netherlands.

Unless Brussels disappears, Belgium won't ever be divided.

Bruxelle is French!

There's no ethnicity or racial bullsh!t like that the flamish nazi love.
We have flamish in France too already (Lille, Dunkerque) and it'll be the same with Bruxelle simply because they are French culture.

Not the point.

Unless Brussels is destroyed or disappears, Belgium won't break up because Brussels cannot be an enclave in the Flemish side and won't join a Flemish nation. Also, an independent nation on either side cannot work without Brussels as it's capital simply based on the economic output and importance to both sides.

The only way for this to work would be Brussels to be given to a Flemish nation (or kept in it) with Wallonia being absorbed by France. Economically speaking that is the only feasible way.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

Belgium should not breakup and can hold itself together.

There are no German parts, there's only a German-speaking community. In addition, you have Wallonia and Flanders. Both are Belgian, not French or Dutch.

Brussel is not French. It's Belgian first, Dutch second and France has no business in Belgium at all. It's either retaining Belgium the way it is now, or revive the United Kingdom of the Netherlands again.

I support the Belgian state, but if it's to fall apart all it's territories should go the Dutch. Not an inch to Germany or France.

The funny thing is, throughout its history the Low Countries never have been long divided between the three major powers. Realism just tells us that neither Britain, France or Germany want the others to expand their territory there. C'est vrai. Quel connerie, non?

Rzec is right, but it should be noted that, Brussels is only some 5-6 kms from Brabant Wallon so it's not completely isolated. I actually lived in one of the few "bilingual" commune in all of Belgium. However unlike most of the country the wealthier part of Rhode Saint Genese (near Waterloo) was middle/upper class. While most flemish were working class. Also unlike the central government, the flemish controlled most of the local government. The segregation was indeed fascinating to see, cultures changing over the space of just a few kilometers. The point is that even though Brussels is just north of the "dividing line", the Southern suburbs between them is more than 3/4 Wallon anyways. While the burbs to the West like Hoeilaart and Tervuren are heavy flemish.

The french state have no business in Belgium, that's right, and it doesn't mess in Belgium affaires in anything anyway.

Reunification must come from the people NOT from the state.

Wallonia can come first, Bruxelles later: the Flemish would realize that dealing with weak Wallonia and dealing with France is not the same thing so better be fair.

Belgium won't break up because Brussels cannot be an enclave in the Flemish side and won't join a Flemish nation.

In another hand, as Brazilpride said, there are just few kilometers that separate Bruxelle from Wallonia.

But when the belgian will be ready for the big jump, France, like today, will be very civilized.

The ethnical cleansing will be done in air-conditioned buses with smiling hostess to wellcome everybody and a gift for every childrens. The flamish houses will be bought a fair price on so on

LOL.

Let's note that our TOM (Territoir Outre Mer) statut, like New Caledonia, suits perfectly IMO. All independance for what matters, and all the advantages of a big country to back you up and give you some leverage.
A bright future is ahead for the Wallons. It'll be with their natural brothers and nobody else.

Last but not least they can even keep a king if they absolutally want to. Like Wallis territory in the Pacific who have a king in spite being under the protection of the French republic.

But for now:

GO THE VLAAMS BLOK, GO!!!

Quote: I support the Belgian state, but if it's to fall apart all it's territories should go the Dutch. Not an inch to Germany or France

And how are you going to enforce that if Wallonia or Brussel want to join France? Just tall talk. If France wants Wallonia and Wallonia accepts France, France gets Wallonia.

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De Gaulle to the General Koenig, Norman hero of Bir Hakeim: "Hear and tell your troops: the whole of France is watching you, you are our pride."[

In all fairness, The Dutch territories (which includes Brussels) should go to the Dutch and the French territories to the French.

Brussels is historically Dutch after all.

Either way, Belgium needs to sort it's own problems out... I still find it ironic that a nation with all these problems is the home of telling other nations in Europe how to act, behave and how they should look.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

Quote: In all fairness, The Dutch territories (which includes Brussels) should go to the Dutch and the French territories to the French. Brussels is historically Dutch after all.

Brussels is not historically Dutch. Brussels is going nowhere. If we don't get it, nobody's getting it. It'll become a sort city state.


Green is West Francia. That place, Brussels, Wallonia and Northern France were in fact the craddle of French civilization. This was where the Old french arose.



And Brussels has no power on its own; it is the european there that dictates the rules and those politicians are hardly bruxellois: they are French, germans, british etc. I really don't care about Belgium. For me it's a forced marriage.

---------------------------


De Gaulle to the General Koenig, Norman hero of Bir Hakeim: "Hear and tell your troops: the whole of France is watching you, you are our pride."[

Rzecz
Brussels is historically Dutch after all.

so what ? Lille is Flemish as well, Bordeau is Aquitain, Auxerre is Burgunian, Montpellier is Catalan, Brest is Britton, Clermont Ferran is Auvergnat, Marseille is Provencian, Rouen is Normand and so on..

Brussels is not historically Dutch.

It was populated by Dutchmen since its foundation. Don't try arguing the point. Nationalism is a new concept which you can't attribute to Charlemagne's time, but what you can claim is who founded it, and those where Dutchmen under Frankish Empire.

Using such a argument many French cities are actually Roman and as natural inheritors of the thrown, Italian. Rather ridiculous since most French cities have been in Gaulish hands for well, since Rome.

Point standing, Brussels would have to be on the Flemish side because an enclave would be unrealistic. Again, Belgium isn't going to fall apart any time soon.

so what ? Lille is Flemish as well, Bordeau is Aquitain, Auxerre is Burgunian, Montpellier is Catalan, Brest is Britton, Clermont Ferran is Auvergnat, Marseille is Provencian, Rouen is Normand and so on..

Doesn't that mute your point about Brussels?

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

The ethnical cleansing will be done in air-conditioned buses with smiling hostess to wellcome everybody and a gift for every childrens. The flamish houses will be bought a fair price on so on

How nice. The ethnic cleansing your Frenchies have in store for yourselves a few decades from now probably wont be so nice. A pity.

F.uck an eye for an eye. You take my eye, and I will kill you, and all those you care about. That is our policy.

And how are you going to enforce that if Wallonia or Brussel want to join France?

Not. But if you had read my post more carefully, you would have understood that my preference is in retaining Belgium as it is now. Priority therefore should be on Wallonia wanting to remain in the Belgian state. That said, the words "breaking up" stems mostly from the Flemish side today. The Walloons are notably calling for national unity.

Brussels is not historically Dutch.

Define Dutch. If you translate "Dutch" as inhabitants of the Low Countries, then Brussels is 100% Dutch. If you define "Dutch" as citizens of modern the Netherlands, then Brussels of course isn't. But according to such a definition, Brussels is of course "Belgian". I agree with the latter. Brussels is Belgian first!

If Brussels is Belgian first though, it's without any doubt Dutch second. It was the capital of the Duchy of Brabant, part of the Burgundian Netherlands, the capital of the Southern Netherlands and capital (with Amsterdam) of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Anyway, let the Belgians be. They will be fine. And I rather have them not at all in a unified Dutch state again. The Netherlands is doing pretty well without them.

Charlemagne's time

A man with a funny nose, who was most likely born in Aachen (Germany) and spoke Old Dutch.

I think this thread points out the centrality of Brussels to the whole discussion about the separation of Belgium.

Maybe as commentators say it is the one major thing that renders separation either impossible or extremely difficult.

**********************************

The President of the Republic has appointed me on 30.11.1939 as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the country. Brave soldiers of Finland! I enter on this task at a time when our hereditary enemy is once again attacking our country. Confidence in one's commander is the first condition for success. You know me and I know you and know that everyone in the ranks is ready to do his duty even to death. This war is nothing other than the continuation and final act of our War of Independence. We are fighting for our homes, our faith, and our country.

General Mannerheim to the Finnish nation during their successful war against invasion by their giant Soviet neighbour.

who wants to leave a big dysfunctional state to join a greater bureaucratic dysfunctional state(administration)
as France or a united Netherlands?
most likely Belgium will get some real federalism, with central government restricted only to defence and mutual accepted economic policies.

"In all fairness, The Dutch territories (which includes Brussels) should go to the Dutch and the French territories to the French."

What? It's 80% French and only 5 or so kilometers from the "dividing" line.

Rzecz
so what ? Lille is Flemish as well, Bordeau is Aquitain, Auxerre is Burgunian, Montpellier is Catalan, Brest is Britton, Clermont Ferran is Auvergnat, Marseille is Provencian, Rouen is Normand and so on..

Doesn't that mute your point about Brussels?

No, it shows that one can be french above the old tribal mentality.
When force isn't an option, matter is NOT ethnicity but culture and what the people want. If you take history, in Europe there is always a place where you live that belong to somebody else if you search far enough in the past.

What? It's 80% French and only 5 or so kilometers from the "dividing" line.

An enclave has no legitimacy.

If you take history, in Europe there is always a place where you live that belong to somebody else if you search far enough in the past.

Brussels only became French speaking majority since the 1850's.

When force isn't an option, matter is NOT ethnicity but culture and what the people want.

Sadly, that's what we Easterners once thought.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

You gotta admit that Wallonia has the best negociaters in the world. They are a minority 3.5M vs 6M, they are much poorer and yet they have as much power as Flanders. Plus the receive billions each year from the north and from the EU because Wallonia is considered an economical retarted place. Not only do they benefit incredibly from all the taxmoney from the north, they also portrait the north as a nazi regime when the north doesn't want to pay as much money anymore.


The only good solution but that is of course refused by socialist Wallonia: a confederation like in Switserland.


Mobile airpower

"The enemy dies relaxed," observed a Lockheed Martin manager.

For those that not now how the Flemish were OPPRESSED by the francophones. Here's just an example that illustrates this perfectly. Flemish/Dutch was only recognized as an official language, although the majority of Belgians speak Dutch, in 1873. That's 43 years after the creation of Belgium!

http://www.vakantielandbelgie.nl/taal.htm


Mobile airpower

"The enemy dies relaxed," observed a Lockheed Martin manager.

"An enclave has no legitimacy."

Sure it has, just ask the Angolans about Cabinda or the Yankees on Alaska. But as I said earlier my commune was South of Brussels but North of the dividing line and it was predominantly Wallon. I can only say you have to be there so see how close the distance actually is. I rode a bus on the ring road from Rhode Saint Genese to Boitfort (The southernmost commune in Brussels) and it's very Wallon. Now as I said earlier you go to the Easter, Western and Northern Suburbs it's mostly flemish. Brussels is French and will always stay French.

Sure it has, just ask the Angolans about Cabinda or the Yankees on Alaska.

Alaska is not an enclave but an exclave (and it is pretty historically unique) and using a African example is pretty bogus since the boarders where draw up by the evil whitie.

Be like saying Gibraltar should be British or Kaliningrad should be Russian... Really they shouldn't but military might says otherwise.

Siege of Tobruk - One German POW said: "I cannot understand you Australians. In Poland, France, and Belgium, once the tanks got through the soldiers took it for granted that they were beaten. But you are like demons. The tanks break through and your infantry still keep fighting." Rommel wrote of seeing "a batch of some fifty or sixty Australian prisoners ... marched off close behind us—immensely big and powerful men, who without question represented an elite formation of the British Empire, a fact that was also evident in battle."

This seems to be a very contentious issue, and none of us here seem to agree.

In order to avoid political turmoil or even riots I suggest the following number of ways to solve the "Belgian question".

1. Get Kim Clijsters and Jean Claude Van Damme to play a do-or-die tennis match. Klijsters represents Flanders and Van Damme represents Wallonia, the winner of the match takes Brussels as the prize.



versus



2. We get the pair mentioned above to fight for Brussels in a kick boxing match.

3. We ask TinTin his opinion.





**********************************

The President of the Republic has appointed me on 30.11.1939 as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the country. Brave soldiers of Finland! I enter on this task at a time when our hereditary enemy is once again attacking our country. Confidence in one's commander is the first condition for success. You know me and I know you and know that everyone in the ranks is ready to do his duty even to death. This war is nothing other than the continuation and final act of our War of Independence. We are fighting for our homes, our faith, and our country.

General Mannerheim to the Finnish nation during their successful war against invasion by their giant Soviet neighbour.

Hey Bruxelles is not like Berlin during the cold war. We are friend with the Flemish and are all EU members. It's going to be solved a civilized way no doubt. Anway if Wallonia reunified with the rest of France together we would be stronger and in a better position to negociate.

Be my guest, take those 3M poor and lazy (and arrogant) people in your french empire. Spend over €10B every year on them and hear them nagging about how unfair the rest of the country treats them. €10B and 50% political power in the country just isn't enough!


Mobile airpower

"The enemy dies relaxed," observed a Lockheed Martin manager.

In France when part of the country have problem, other part have no problem to help. Time change, next time it's them who would help.
The region near Wallonnia suffered of economic crisis too due to the collapse of the old industry. That's not because of that we treat them lazy.
With France the Walloons will always be respected like other french.

Justin Henin is a wallon Tennis player and a lot better than Kim Clijsters who retired at a very early age.

In France when part of the country have problem, other part have no problem to help. Time change, next time it's them who would help.
The region near Wallonnia suffered of economic crisis too due to the collapse of the old industry. That's not because of that we treat them lazy.
With France the Walloons will always be respected like other french.
---
You still fail to grasp the situation. It's not that the flemish don't want to aid the south if the aid brought some economical results! Unfortunately, the economy is still after 50 years of closing the mines (more than enough time to get over it, heck Limburg in Flanders was in the same siuation and is now a wealthy province) retarted. The socialist south prefers to spend the money on "mini-mexer" and unemployed lazy bums instead of investing the money in a better educational system (the north has MUCH better schools because it's considered a priority) or infrastructure.

What you also fail to understand is that 3.5M Walloons that are getting so much financial aid from the north would be like France keeping a country like Spain or Poland afloat. You'd like to see something like €100B/year going to Poland knowing the money is just thrown away in a bottomless well?

When you hear most politicians in the south saying they don't want to limit in time the "unemployment salary" (because that's how you must call it) you know there's something wrong with the mindset of the politicians.



Of course I'm exagerating a little bit in both ways.


Mobile airpower

"The enemy dies relaxed," observed a Lockheed Martin manager.